Cumbria Health Protection Board

Weekly COVID-19 SummaryWeek 44 (Ending Friday 30 October)

Summary Produced Wednesday 04 November

Produced By Cumbria Resilience Multi Agency Intelligence Cell (MAIC) 1

Weekly Summary: Key points Week 44 (Ending Friday 30 October)

2

Cases & Demographics

• There were 957 new cases in Cumbria (+82 increase, +9%, from 875 cases in previous week);

• For the 2nd consecutive week Carlisle had the greatest number of new cases (+244 new cases), followed by South Lakeland

(+179);

• Barrow-in-Furness had the highest rate of new cases (249 new cases per 100k population);

• Barrow’s rate was above the national average (England = 228 new cases per 100k population);

• Numbers of new cases increased from week 43 in Allerdale, Copeland and South Lakeland, with the greatest proportional

increase seen in Allerdale (+66%).

• Numbers of new cases in Barrow, Carlisle and Eden decreased slightly from the previous week, with the greatest proportional

decrease seen in Barrow (-14%).

• For the third week in a row, the 45-59 age group accounted for the greatest number of new cases in Cumbria.

Health & Hospitalisations

• Continued increases in the number of patients admitted with COVID-19 in NHS North Cumbria CCG, and patients with COVID-

19 in hospital beds in both NHS North Cumbria and NHS Morecambe Bay CCG.

• However, the number of patients admitted with COVID-19 in NHS Morecambe Bay CCG has decreased.

Mortality

• An increase in the number of deaths due to COVID-19; 11 registered deaths relating to COVID-19 (up to week 43).

Impact on Sectors

• Increases in the number of outbreaks and incidents in some education settings;

• Increase in school attendance levels;

• Slight decrease in outbreaks in Care Homes; however, an increase in outbreaks in Supported Living Services

R estimates & Growth Rates NHS Region

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Region RGrowth rate %

per day

England 1.1-1.3 +3 to +5

East of England 1.2-1.4 +3 to +6

London 1.1-1.3 +2 to +5

Midlands 1.2-1.4 +3 to +6

North East and Yorkshire 1.1-1.3 +2 to +5

North West 1.0-1.2 +1 to +3

South East 1.2-1.4 +3 to +6

South West 1.2-1.5 +4 to +7

Source: gov.uk. Friday 30 October 2020.

North Cumbria falls within the North East and

Yorkshire region.

The values are shown as a range, the most likely true

values are somewhere towards the middle of this range.

*Low case numbers and/ or a high degree of variability in

transmission across the region means these estimates are

insufficiently robust to inform policy decisions.

Cases

4Note: This represents the number of people with a positive test result

Key Points for Cumbria’s districts in Week 44:

• There were 957 new cases in Cumbria (+82 increase, +9%, from 875 cases in previous week);

• For the 2nd consecutive week Carlisle had the greatest number of new cases (+244 new cases), followed by South Lakeland (+179);

• Barrow-in-Furness had the highest rate of new cases (249 new cases per 100k population);

• Barrow’s rate was above the national average (England = 228 new cases per 100k population);

• Numbers of new cases increased from week 43 in Allerdale, Copeland and South Lakeland, with the greatest proportional increase seen in Allerdale (+66%).

• Numbers of new cases in Barrow, Carlisle and Eden decreased slightly from the previous week, with the greatest proportional decrease seen in Barrow (-14%).

Mid-2019

PopulationNew Positive

Cases

Rate of New

Positive

Cases Per

100,000

Population

Total

Positive

Cases

New

Positive

Cases

Rate of

New

Positive

Cases Per

100,000

Population

Numerical

Change in

New

Positive

Cases

% Change

in New

Positive

Cases

Increase in

Rate of

New

Positive

Cases Per

100,000

Persons

Cumbria 500,012 875 175 7,060 957 191 82 9 16

Allerdale 97,761 88 90 918 146 149 58 66 59

Barrow-in-Furness 67,049 195 291 1,625 167 249 -28 -14 -42

Carlisle 108,678 252 232 1,703 244 225 -8 -3 -7

Copeland 68,183 91 133 788 126 185 35 38 51

Eden 53,253 105 197 602 93 175 -12 -11 -23

South Lakeland 105,088 144 137 1,415 179 170 35 24 33

Source: PHE Postcode COVID-19 Positive Cases Data

Last Updated: 04/11/2020

Weekly Summary: Public Health England (PHE) COVID 19 Positive Cases (Includes Pillar 1 & Pillar 2)

Week 43 (Ending 23-Oct-20) Week 44 (Ending 30-Oct-20) Week 43 - Week 44 Change

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Cumbria Cases

Note: This represents the number of people with a positive test result

Pillar 2 Testing Available

6

District CasesCarlisle had the greatest number of new cases in week 44, followed by South Lakeland. However, number of new cases increased

from week 43 in Allerdale, Copeland and South Lakeland, with the greatest proportional increase seen in Allerdale (+66%).

Note: This represents the number of people with a positive test result.

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Rate of Cases Per 100,000 Population

Note: This represents the number of people

with a positive test result per 100k population.

Barrow-in-Furness’s rate of cases per

100k population has dropped over the

last two weeks but remains just above

the national average rate.

Carlisle’s rate has also dropped slightly

over the last two weeks and is now just

below the national average rate.

Rates in Allerdale, Copeland and South

Lakeland have increased in the last

week, although all three districts

currently remain below the national

average rate.

Daily Lab-Confirmed Cases – Pillar 1 & 2[Preliminary up to 02 November]

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25-Oct-20 26-Oct-20 27-Oct-20 28-Oct-20 29-Oct-20 30-Oct-20 31-Oct-20 01-Nov-2002-Nov-20

Cumbria 98 152 149 145 194 107 118 130 130

Allerdale 9 18 17 16 53 11 15 26 14

Barrow-in-Furness 17 27 30 28 28 18 12 13 13

Carlisle 30 41 33 47 42 24 41 35 54

Copeland 15 16 17 21 22 24 16 22 16

Eden 7 17 21 14 14 13 10 15 8

South Lakeland 20 33 31 19 35 17 24 19 25

[Data is subject to revisions; most recent days are provisional and likely to increase as lab results are processed]

Source: https://coronavirus.data.gov.uk/

[Last updated on Wednesday 04 November 2020 at 04:00pm]

Official Sensitive – not for sharing or publishing. Only for those working on Covid-19 response9

Cases by Middle Super Output Area (MSOA)Seven–day rolling rate of new cases by specimen date ending on 29 Oct 2020

Last updated on Tuesday 3 November 2020

7.43pm

Source: https://coronavirus.data.gov.uk/cases

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Cases by Age Group

Source: PHE (data represents the number of people with a positive test result)

For the 3rd week in a row, the 45-59 age group

accounted for the greatest number of new cases

in Cumbria.

Hospitalisations

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In the week ending Sunday 1st November:

Source: NHS Daily Sit Rep Submissions. Please be aware that the data is collected as a ‘sitrep’ on the

day and is not refined retrospective reporting data. It is susceptible to error caused by delays in data

entry and as simple admin errors. There is no mechanism for updating or correcting any such

occurrences with NHSE/i - the prime recipient.

Mortality: Cumbria Weekly Registered Deaths to Week 43 (23 October 2020)

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Source: Office for National Statistics