current state of radiation belt modeling: successes and...

Operated by Los Alamos National Security LLC for the US Department of Energys NNSA

UNCLASSIFIED

Current state of Radiation Belt Modeling

Successes and ChallengesR Friedel13 Yue Chen13 G Cunningham13 S Morley1

J Lichtenberger2 Lilla Juhasz2

4th Asia Oceania Space Weather Alliance Workshop

Jeju Republic of Korea Oct 24-27 2016

Friedel - 13h30 Keynote 2 Oct 26 2016 LA-UR-27986

1Los Alamos National Laboratory Los Alamos USA 2Eoumltvoumls University Budapest Hungary 6New Mexico Consortium Los Alamos USA


UNCLASSIFIED

4th Asia Oceania Space Weather Alliance Workshop - Jeju Republic of Korea Oct 24-27 2016

Motivation

Background ndash why 3D diffusion codes

Inputs needed for 3D diffusion codes

ndash Initial State

ndash Chorus Hiss EMIC (pitch angleenergy diffusion)

ndash ULF (radial diffusion)

ndash Outer boundary (Magnetopause)

ndash Background electron density

ndash Low energy boundary (Oct 2012 event)

Nowcast to Forecast

DREAM-RT RBSP AE9 Comparison

Contents

Slide 2


UNCLASSIFIED


Focus of this talk is on energetic (~MeV) electron

radiation belt modeling

This population is the cause of deep dielectric

charging and contributes to overall dose

The region to be covered is from geosynchronous to

low-Earth orbit

We ask the question

What currently are the main limitations in modeling this

population in the Earthrsquos Radiation Belts

Motivation

Slide 3


UNCLASSIFIED


BackgroundResults from Reeves et al 2003

Slide 4

Difficulty in understanding dynamics of system Wide range of responses for similar geomagnetic storms ndash Increase Decrease Shift of peak No change -are all possible responses

Many processes operate simultaneously that cannot be separated observationally

Response thought to be result of a delicate balance of loss transport and internal energization processes

Acceleration and loss of relativistic electrons during geomagnetic storms GD Reeves KL McAdams RHW Friedel TP OBrien

Geophysical Research Letters 30 (10)

451 Citations ()


UNCLASSIFIED


Quick QuestionWhy canrsquot current models reproduce the observed dynamics

Slide 5

We have a range of quite sophisticated modelling approaches for the inner radiation belts that include transport acceleration and losses Whatrsquos missing

I would hold that our current models DO include the major physical processes but that we are driving these models with broad statistical inputs (DLL wave statistics driving DEE and Dαα simple background density models) and badly constrained boundary conditions

Simply Average inputs in -gt average behaviour out


UNCLASSIFIED


BackgroundInner Radiation Belt Modeling Approaches

Slide 6

Main classes of models

1 Diffusion models based on Fokker-Planck Equation Uses diffusion coefficients to model the effects of waves on radial pitch angle energy

and cross diffusion Simple lifetimes to model pitch angle diffusion loss

2 RAM-type drift physics codes Uses DLL in static fields or calculates drifts in self consistent magnetic and electric fields Simple lifetimes to model pitch angle diffusion loss Uses DEE and Dαα + cross terms) with statistic wave amplitudes or with calculated growth

rates -gt wave amplitudes

3 MHD codes with particle tracers Radial diffusion from self-consistent fields Traced particles use DEE and Dαα with statistic wave amplitudes

4 Hybrid codes Can treat self-consistent EMIC whistler growth amp interaction Limited coupling to global codes

5 PIC codes Once these do the global magnetosphere we may all be able to go homehellip Prohibitive computational needs


UNCLASSIFIED



Slide 7



and cross diffusion

Likely to be the only candidate for an operational MeV radiation belt model

for the foreseeable future eg

Salammbocirc (ONERA)

SpaceCastSpaceStorm (BAS)

VERB (UCLA)

DREAM3D (LANL)

hellip


UNCLASSIFIED


BackgroundDiffusion coefficient calculation (Glauert Summers Albert)

Slide 8

Wave particle interaction diffusion coefficient calculations based on quasi-linear theory are computationally expensive and the community has spent a lot of effort to perform these calculations with varying degrees of approximations

For the waves

- First order resonances only

- Parallel propagation of waves only

- Assumed k-distribution of waves (guided by data)

- Assumed frequency distribution of waves (guided by data)

- Fixed K-distribution along field lines

- No feedback of particles on waves no damping

- Currently parameterized by wave power only

For background environmental conditions

- Dipole magnetic field- Advanced dynamic field

models- Simple background

density models- Simple ion composition

models

For global wave power distribution

- We do not have global in-situ wave data

- Simple statistics based on geomagnetic activity indices

- Assumes instantaneous MLT distribution = statistical MLT distribution


UNCLASSIFIED


The biggest uncertainty in ANY forward modeling comes from

the fidelity of the initial state (eg DREAM G Reeves LANL)

Ongoing KSWC LANL NOAA collaboration to run a version of real-

time dream at KSWC Initially with GOES data later RBSP beacon data

Initial State

Slide 9

Data

Assimilation

Model

GEO amp GPS amp

Polar

Observations


UNCLASSIFIED


Chorus Hiss EMICWave Models ndash Model grid and distribution in one bin

Slide 10

L-shell [3 12] in step of 2

Local Time [0 24] hr in step of 1 hr

Mag Latitude Ranges [0 10] [10 25] [25

35] and gt35 deg

AE ranges lt100nT [100 300] nT and

gt300nT

Example Chorus Wave Model


UNCLASSIFIED


Statistical wave inputs for the calculation of diffusion coefficients are

not adequate

Use of operational LEO observations as Chorus proxy

Chorus Hiss EMIC

Slide 11

Glo

ba

l time

-d

ep

en

de

nt c

ho

rus

ma

ps

from

low

-E

arth

-o

rbit e

lec

tron

pre

cip

itatio

n a

nd

Va

n A

llen

Pro

be

s d

ata

Che

n Y

et a

l Ge

op

hysic

al R

ese

arc

h L

ette

rs 2

01

4 F

eb

16

Vo

l41

(3)

Similar work

Constructing the global distribution of chorus wave intensity using measurements of electrons

by the POES satellites and waves by the Van Allen Probes

Li W et al Geophysical Research Letters 2013 Vol40(17)


UNCLASSIFIED


Chorus Hiss EMIC

Slide 12

bull Estimate in-situ wave distribution and properties from ground based

VLF measurements

bull Huge availability of ground based data eg ADWANET

Ground based

observations as

proxies

Need research to

establish transfer

functions between

ground

observations and

in-situ waves


UNCLASSIFIED


Radial diffusion is one of

the major physical process

in the radiation belt yet

there is little agreement on

the best way to obtain it

Ground based global ULF

measurements offer the

only viable route for

obtaining ongoing time-

varying DLL

Plot from ldquoULF wave derived radiation belt

radial diffusion coefficientsrdquo JGR Ozeke at

al 2012

ULF

Slide 13


UNCLASSIFIED


For 3D diffusion codes the last closed drift shell is the outer

boundary for trapped electrons

The last closed drift shell can be calculated by establishing the

largest possible L from magnetic field models

Outer boundary

Slide 14

Plot from ldquoL neural

networks from

different magnetic field

models and their

applicability Y Yu et

al JGR 2012

LANL freely available

from

wwwlanlstarlanlgov

(Josef Koller)


UNCLASSIFIED


Needed in the calculation

of all diffusion coefficients

ldquoNowcastrdquo of the

plasmasphere density

possible using ground

based inputs (whistlers

field line resonances

together with a data

assimilative code

(PLASMON FP7 project J

Lichtenberger)

Background electron density

Slide 15

Modeled electron lifetimes from Hiss

C Jeffery LANL


UNCLASSIFIED


Automated analyses of whistlersvirtual (whistler) trace transformation [Lichtenberger JGR 2009]

Whistler Nose frequency

related to equatorial electron

density and density profile

along field line

log10 neq=A + BsdotL


UNCLASSIFIED


Automated analysis of field line resonancesCross phase method FLRINV [Berube et al 2003]

Example of automated detection of resonance frequency ndash

example of continuous detection over ~12 hours from

European EMMA chain of magnetometer stations


UNCLASSIFIED


3D diffusion codes treat electrons dominated by magnetic

field drifts (E gt 100keV)

100 keV at low L has plasmasheet origin of 1-10keV particles

that are not provided by the model

Models need this lower energy boundary at all L at all times

Typically this boundary is specified ONCE in the initial state

Specifying a 1-10keV source at the outer boundary Radial

diffusion is not adequate for their transport

Results from W Tu et al ldquoEvent-specific chorus wave and

electron seed population models in DREAM3D using the Van

Allen Probes Geophys Res Lett 2014

Low energy boundary

Slide 18


UNCLASSIFIED


Low energy boundary from VLF- a new ground-based approach Lilla Juhaz ELTE

Slide 19

Energetic electron density estimation from whistler-mode chorus emissions

Omura Y Y Katoh and D Summers (2008) Theory and simulation of the generation of whistler-mode chorus J Geophys Res 113

Omura Y and D Nunn (2011) Triggering process of whistler mode chorus emissions in the magnetosphere J Geophys Res 116

Studies on generation of whistler-mode chorus revealed two important relations

bull There is a simple relation between the frequency sweep rate of chorus

emissions and the wave amplitude at the equator

bull The wave amplitude is close to the ldquooptimal amplituderdquo that is proportional to

the density of the energetic electrons

In-situ measurements (ie at the equator) are rare Ground based VLF receivers

are able to detect chorus but need to take propagation effects into account

Themis D

dawn

6RE

equator


UNCLASSIFIED


DREAM3D Simulation of the

Oct 2012 event

Slide 20

3L

4

5

6RD only

Last closed drift shell

3

L

4

5

6

7

9

11

10-6

10-7

10-8

10-9

L

TS045

10-10

PSD data micro=2000 MeVG K=01 G12Re

Oct 6 Oct 7 Oct 8 Oct 9

2012

Oct 10 Oct 11

10-6

10-7

10-8

10-9

10-10

bull Modeling the enhancementndash Event-specific chorus waves

ndash Realistic source population

(100s keV)

3

L

4

5

6 10-6

10-7

10-8

10-9

10-10

RD+chorus

micro=88 MeVG

K=01 G12Re

3

L

4

5

6

RD only


2012

Oct 10 Oct 11

electron flux data

100

102

104

106

108L=42 αeq=50o


UNCLASSIFIED



Oct 2012 event

Slide 21

3L

4

5

6RD only


3

L

4

5

6

7

9

11

10-6

10-7

10-8

10-9

L

TS045

10-10



2012

Oct 10 Oct 11

10-6

10-7

10-8

10-9

10-10



(100s keV)

3

L

4

5

6 10-6

10-7

10-8

10-9

10-10

RD+chorus +Seed

micro=88 MeVG

K=01 G12Re

3

L

4

5

6

RD only


2012

Oct 10 Oct 11

electron flux data

100

102

104

106

108L=42 αeq=50o


UNCLASSIFIED


High quality science grade data are rare and NOT useful

for operations (CRRES -gt RBSP 22 year gap )

ldquoOperationalrdquo data (LANL GEO Galileo GPS etc) while

plentiful may not to be publically available

Some operational assets may have ldquoassuredrdquo availability

(GOES POESJPSS)

Suggestions for future operational data providers

ndash Other models

ndash Cubesat constellation

Path Forward

Slide 22

ndash Ground based data


UNCLASSIFIED


Path Forward

Slide 23


~$1M = one Cubesat

~$20K = One VLF Mag Ground Station

50 Ground Stations for the price of one Cubesat

So where should we invest

Invest in the research needed to relate high quality in situ

data to corresponding ground based data


UNCLASSIFIED


As shown here specification of the required

boundary conditions and inputs required is non

trivial even in the presence of some data

How to do this in a forecast mode

Additional research needed to set up proxy

relationships for all the inputs tying them back to

Kp Dst Solar Wind data from L1 - which

ultimately need to rely on ldquogoodrdquo future

predictions of conditions at L1

Nowcast to forecast

Slide 24


UNCLASSIFIED


DREAM-RT ndash Processing Chart

LANL-KSWC collaboration

Slide 25


UNCLASSIFIED


Slide 26

DREAM-RT1994-084 LANL-01A LANL-04A

Flux 15 MeV

RBSP-A MagEIS

Flux 15 MeV

January 2014

AE-9

Flux 15 MeV


UNCLASSIFIED


Motivation

Background ndash why 3D diffusion codes

Inputs needed for 3D diffusion codes

ndash Initial State

ndash Chorus Hiss EMIC (pitch angleenergy diffusion)

ndash ULF (radial diffusion)

ndash Outer boundary (Magnetopause)

ndash Background electron density

ndash Low energy boundary (Oct 2012 event)

Nowcast to Forecast

DREAM-RT RBSP AE9 Comparison

Contents

Slide 2


UNCLASSIFIED







low-Earth orbit

We ask the question



Motivation

Slide 3


UNCLASSIFIED



Slide 4






451 Citations ()


UNCLASSIFIED



Slide 5





UNCLASSIFIED



Slide 6










UNCLASSIFIED



Slide 7



and cross diffusion





VERB (UCLA)

DREAM3D (LANL)

hellip


UNCLASSIFIED



Slide 8


For the waves












models






UNCLASSIFIED






Initial State

Slide 9

Data

Assimilation

Model

GEO amp GPS amp

Polar

Observations


UNCLASSIFIED



Slide 10




35] and gt35 deg


gt300nT



UNCLASSIFIED



not adequate


Chorus Hiss EMIC

Slide 11

Glo

ba

l time

-d

ep

en

de

nt c

ho

rus

ma

ps

from

low

-E

arth

-o

rbit e

lec

tron

pre

cip

itatio

n a

nd

Va

n A

llen

Pro

be

s d

ata

Che

n Y

et a

l Ge

op

hysic

al R

ese

arc

h L

ette

rs 2

01

4 F

eb

16

Vo

l41

(3)

Similar work





UNCLASSIFIED


Chorus Hiss EMIC

Slide 12


VLF measurements


Ground based

observations as

proxies

Need research to

establish transfer

functions between

ground

observations and

in-situ waves


UNCLASSIFIED











varying DLL



al 2012

ULF

Slide 13


UNCLASSIFIED






Outer boundary

Slide 14


networks from


models and their


al JGR 2012


from

wwwlanlstarlanlgov

(Josef Koller)


UNCLASSIFIED










assimilative code


Lichtenberger)


Slide 15


C Jeffery LANL


UNCLASSIFIED






along field line



UNCLASSIFIED







UNCLASSIFIED













Low energy boundary

Slide 18


UNCLASSIFIED



Slide 19











Themis D

dawn

6RE

equator


UNCLASSIFIED



Oct 2012 event

Slide 20

3L

4

5

6RD only


3

L

4

5

6

7

9

11

10-6

10-7

10-8

10-9

L

TS045

10-10



2012

Oct 10 Oct 11

10-6

10-7

10-8

10-9

10-10



(100s keV)

3

L

4

5

6 10-6

10-7

10-8

10-9

10-10

RD+chorus

micro=88 MeVG

K=01 G12Re

3

L

4

5

6

RD only


2012

Oct 10 Oct 11

electron flux data

100

102

104

106

108L=42 αeq=50o


UNCLASSIFIED



Oct 2012 event

Slide 21

3L

4

5

6RD only


3

L

4

5

6

7

9

11

10-6

10-7

10-8

10-9

L

TS045

10-10



2012

Oct 10 Oct 11

10-6

10-7

10-8

10-9

10-10



(100s keV)

3

L

4

5

6 10-6

10-7

10-8

10-9

10-10

RD+chorus +Seed

micro=88 MeVG

K=01 G12Re

3

L

4

5

6

RD only


2012

Oct 10 Oct 11

electron flux data

100

102

104

106

108L=42 αeq=50o


UNCLASSIFIED







(GOES POESJPSS)


ndash Other models


Path Forward

Slide 22



UNCLASSIFIED


Path Forward

Slide 23


~$1M = one Cubesat







UNCLASSIFIED











Nowcast to forecast

Slide 24


UNCLASSIFIED




Slide 25


UNCLASSIFIED


Slide 26


Flux 15 MeV

RBSP-A MagEIS

Flux 15 MeV

January 2014

AE-9

Flux 15 MeV


UNCLASSIFIED







low-Earth orbit

We ask the question



Motivation

Slide 3


UNCLASSIFIED



Slide 4






451 Citations ()


UNCLASSIFIED



Slide 5





UNCLASSIFIED



Slide 6










UNCLASSIFIED



Slide 7



and cross diffusion





VERB (UCLA)

DREAM3D (LANL)

hellip


UNCLASSIFIED



Slide 8


For the waves












models






UNCLASSIFIED






Initial State

Slide 9

Data

Assimilation

Model

GEO amp GPS amp

Polar

Observations


UNCLASSIFIED



Slide 10




35] and gt35 deg


gt300nT



UNCLASSIFIED



not adequate


Chorus Hiss EMIC

Slide 11

Glo

ba

l time

-d

ep

en

de

nt c

ho

rus

ma

ps

from

low

-E

arth

-o

rbit e

lec

tron

pre

cip

itatio

n a

nd

Va

n A

llen

Pro

be

s d

ata

Che

n Y

et a

l Ge

op

hysic

al R

ese

arc

h L

ette

rs 2

01

4 F

eb

16

Vo

l41

(3)

Similar work





UNCLASSIFIED


Chorus Hiss EMIC

Slide 12


VLF measurements


Ground based

observations as

proxies

Need research to

establish transfer

functions between

ground

observations and

in-situ waves


UNCLASSIFIED











varying DLL



al 2012

ULF

Slide 13


UNCLASSIFIED






Outer boundary

Slide 14


networks from


models and their


al JGR 2012


from

wwwlanlstarlanlgov

(Josef Koller)


UNCLASSIFIED










assimilative code


Lichtenberger)


Slide 15


C Jeffery LANL


UNCLASSIFIED






along field line



UNCLASSIFIED







UNCLASSIFIED













Low energy boundary

Slide 18


UNCLASSIFIED



Slide 19











Themis D

dawn

6RE

equator


UNCLASSIFIED



Oct 2012 event

Slide 20

3L

4

5

6RD only


3

L

4

5

6

7

9

11

10-6

10-7

10-8

10-9

L

TS045

10-10



2012

Oct 10 Oct 11

10-6

10-7

10-8

10-9

10-10



(100s keV)

3

L

4

5

6 10-6

10-7

10-8

10-9

10-10

RD+chorus

micro=88 MeVG

K=01 G12Re

3

L

4

5

6

RD only


2012

Oct 10 Oct 11

electron flux data

100

102

104

106

108L=42 αeq=50o


UNCLASSIFIED



Oct 2012 event

Slide 21

3L

4

5

6RD only


3

L

4

5

6

7

9

11

10-6

10-7

10-8

10-9

L

TS045

10-10



2012

Oct 10 Oct 11

10-6

10-7

10-8

10-9

10-10



(100s keV)

3

L

4

5

6 10-6

10-7

10-8

10-9

10-10

RD+chorus +Seed

micro=88 MeVG

K=01 G12Re

3

L

4

5

6

RD only


2012

Oct 10 Oct 11

electron flux data

100

102

104

106

108L=42 αeq=50o


UNCLASSIFIED







(GOES POESJPSS)


ndash Other models


Path Forward

Slide 22



UNCLASSIFIED


Path Forward

Slide 23


~$1M = one Cubesat







UNCLASSIFIED











Nowcast to forecast

Slide 24


UNCLASSIFIED




Slide 25


UNCLASSIFIED


Slide 26


Flux 15 MeV

RBSP-A MagEIS

Flux 15 MeV

January 2014

AE-9

Flux 15 MeV


UNCLASSIFIED



Slide 4






451 Citations ()


UNCLASSIFIED



Slide 5





UNCLASSIFIED



Slide 6










UNCLASSIFIED



Slide 7



and cross diffusion





VERB (UCLA)

DREAM3D (LANL)

hellip


UNCLASSIFIED



Slide 8


For the waves












models






UNCLASSIFIED






Initial State

Slide 9

Data

Assimilation

Model

GEO amp GPS amp

Polar

Observations


UNCLASSIFIED



Slide 10




35] and gt35 deg


gt300nT



UNCLASSIFIED



not adequate


Chorus Hiss EMIC

Slide 11

Glo

ba

l time

-d

ep

en

de

nt c

ho

rus

ma

ps

from

low

-E

arth

-o

rbit e

lec

tron

pre

cip

itatio

n a

nd

Va

n A

llen

Pro

be

s d

ata

Che

n Y

et a

l Ge

op

hysic

al R

ese

arc

h L

ette

rs 2

01

4 F

eb

16

Vo

l41

(3)

Similar work





UNCLASSIFIED


Chorus Hiss EMIC

Slide 12


VLF measurements


Ground based

observations as

proxies

Need research to

establish transfer

functions between

ground

observations and

in-situ waves


UNCLASSIFIED











varying DLL



al 2012

ULF

Slide 13


UNCLASSIFIED






Outer boundary

Slide 14


networks from


models and their


al JGR 2012


from

wwwlanlstarlanlgov

(Josef Koller)


UNCLASSIFIED










assimilative code


Lichtenberger)


Slide 15


C Jeffery LANL


UNCLASSIFIED






along field line



UNCLASSIFIED







UNCLASSIFIED













Low energy boundary

Slide 18


UNCLASSIFIED



Slide 19











Themis D

dawn

6RE

equator


UNCLASSIFIED



Oct 2012 event

Slide 20

3L

4

5

6RD only


3

L

4

5

6

7

9

11

10-6

10-7

10-8

10-9

L

TS045

10-10



2012

Oct 10 Oct 11

10-6

10-7

10-8

10-9

10-10



(100s keV)

3

L

4

5

6 10-6

10-7

10-8

10-9

10-10

RD+chorus

micro=88 MeVG

K=01 G12Re

3

L

4

5

6

RD only


2012

Oct 10 Oct 11

electron flux data

100

102

104

106

108L=42 αeq=50o


UNCLASSIFIED



Oct 2012 event

Slide 21

3L

4

5

6RD only


3

L

4

5

6

7

9

11

10-6

10-7

10-8

10-9

L

TS045

10-10



2012

Oct 10 Oct 11

10-6

10-7

10-8

10-9

10-10



(100s keV)

3

L

4

5

6 10-6

10-7

10-8

10-9

10-10

RD+chorus +Seed

micro=88 MeVG

K=01 G12Re

3

L

4

5

6

RD only


2012

Oct 10 Oct 11

electron flux data

100

102

104

106

108L=42 αeq=50o


UNCLASSIFIED







(GOES POESJPSS)


ndash Other models


Path Forward

Slide 22



UNCLASSIFIED


Path Forward

Slide 23


~$1M = one Cubesat







UNCLASSIFIED











Nowcast to forecast

Slide 24


UNCLASSIFIED




Slide 25


UNCLASSIFIED


Slide 26


Flux 15 MeV

RBSP-A MagEIS

Flux 15 MeV

January 2014

AE-9

Flux 15 MeV


UNCLASSIFIED



Slide 5





UNCLASSIFIED



Slide 6










UNCLASSIFIED



Slide 7



and cross diffusion





VERB (UCLA)

DREAM3D (LANL)

hellip


UNCLASSIFIED



Slide 8


For the waves












models






UNCLASSIFIED






Initial State

Slide 9

Data

Assimilation

Model

GEO amp GPS amp

Polar

Observations


UNCLASSIFIED



Slide 10




35] and gt35 deg


gt300nT



UNCLASSIFIED



not adequate


Chorus Hiss EMIC

Slide 11

Glo

ba

l time

-d

ep

en

de

nt c

ho

rus

ma

ps

from

low

-E

arth

-o

rbit e

lec

tron

pre

cip

itatio

n a

nd

Va

n A

llen

Pro

be

s d

ata

Che

n Y

et a

l Ge

op

hysic

al R

ese

arc

h L

ette

rs 2

01

4 F

eb

16

Vo

l41

(3)

Similar work





UNCLASSIFIED


Chorus Hiss EMIC

Slide 12


VLF measurements


Ground based

observations as

proxies

Need research to

establish transfer

functions between

ground

observations and

in-situ waves


UNCLASSIFIED











varying DLL



al 2012

ULF

Slide 13


UNCLASSIFIED






Outer boundary

Slide 14


networks from


models and their


al JGR 2012


from

wwwlanlstarlanlgov

(Josef Koller)


UNCLASSIFIED










assimilative code


Lichtenberger)


Slide 15


C Jeffery LANL


UNCLASSIFIED






along field line



UNCLASSIFIED







UNCLASSIFIED













Low energy boundary

Slide 18


UNCLASSIFIED



Slide 19











Themis D

dawn

6RE

equator


UNCLASSIFIED



Oct 2012 event

Slide 20

3L

4

5

6RD only


3

L

4

5

6

7

9

11

10-6

10-7

10-8

10-9

L

TS045

10-10



2012

Oct 10 Oct 11

10-6

10-7

10-8

10-9

10-10



(100s keV)

3

L

4

5

6 10-6

10-7

10-8

10-9

10-10

RD+chorus

micro=88 MeVG

K=01 G12Re

3

L

4

5

6

RD only


2012

Oct 10 Oct 11

electron flux data

100

102

104

106

108L=42 αeq=50o


UNCLASSIFIED



Oct 2012 event

Slide 21

3L

4

5

6RD only


3

L

4

5

6

7

9

11

10-6

10-7

10-8

10-9

L

TS045

10-10



2012

Oct 10 Oct 11

10-6

10-7

10-8

10-9

10-10



(100s keV)

3

L

4

5

6 10-6

10-7

10-8

10-9

10-10

RD+chorus +Seed

micro=88 MeVG

K=01 G12Re

3

L

4

5

6

RD only


2012

Oct 10 Oct 11

electron flux data

100

102

104

106

108L=42 αeq=50o


UNCLASSIFIED







(GOES POESJPSS)


ndash Other models


Path Forward

Slide 22



UNCLASSIFIED


Path Forward

Slide 23


~$1M = one Cubesat







UNCLASSIFIED











Nowcast to forecast

Slide 24


UNCLASSIFIED




Slide 25


UNCLASSIFIED


Slide 26


Flux 15 MeV

RBSP-A MagEIS

Flux 15 MeV

January 2014

AE-9

Flux 15 MeV


UNCLASSIFIED



Slide 6










UNCLASSIFIED



Slide 7



and cross diffusion





VERB (UCLA)

DREAM3D (LANL)

hellip


UNCLASSIFIED



Slide 8


For the waves












models






UNCLASSIFIED






Initial State

Slide 9

Data

Assimilation

Model

GEO amp GPS amp

Polar

Observations


UNCLASSIFIED



Slide 10




35] and gt35 deg


gt300nT



UNCLASSIFIED



not adequate


Chorus Hiss EMIC

Slide 11

Glo

ba

l time

-d

ep

en

de

nt c

ho

rus

ma

ps

from

low

-E

arth

-o

rbit e

lec

tron

pre

cip

itatio

n a

nd

Va

n A

llen

Pro

be

s d

ata

Che

n Y

et a

l Ge

op

hysic

al R

ese

arc

h L

ette

rs 2

01

4 F

eb

16

Vo

l41

(3)

Similar work





UNCLASSIFIED


Chorus Hiss EMIC

Slide 12


VLF measurements


Ground based

observations as

proxies

Need research to

establish transfer

functions between

ground

observations and

in-situ waves


UNCLASSIFIED











varying DLL



al 2012

ULF

Slide 13


UNCLASSIFIED






Outer boundary

Slide 14


networks from


models and their


al JGR 2012


from

wwwlanlstarlanlgov

(Josef Koller)


UNCLASSIFIED










assimilative code


Lichtenberger)


Slide 15


C Jeffery LANL


UNCLASSIFIED






along field line



UNCLASSIFIED







UNCLASSIFIED













Low energy boundary

Slide 18


UNCLASSIFIED



Slide 19











Themis D

dawn

6RE

equator


UNCLASSIFIED



Oct 2012 event

Slide 20

3L

4

5

6RD only


3

L

4

5

6

7

9

11

10-6

10-7

10-8

10-9

L

TS045

10-10



2012

Oct 10 Oct 11

10-6

10-7

10-8

10-9

10-10



(100s keV)

3

L

4

5

6 10-6

10-7

10-8

10-9

10-10

RD+chorus

micro=88 MeVG

K=01 G12Re

3

L

4

5

6

RD only


2012

Oct 10 Oct 11

electron flux data

100

102

104

106

108L=42 αeq=50o


UNCLASSIFIED



Oct 2012 event

Slide 21

3L

4

5

6RD only


3

L

4

5

6

7

9

11

10-6

10-7

10-8

10-9

L

TS045

10-10



2012

Oct 10 Oct 11

10-6

10-7

10-8

10-9

10-10



(100s keV)

3

L

4

5

6 10-6

10-7

10-8

10-9

10-10

RD+chorus +Seed

micro=88 MeVG

K=01 G12Re

3

L

4

5

6

RD only


2012

Oct 10 Oct 11

electron flux data

100

102

104

106

108L=42 αeq=50o


UNCLASSIFIED







(GOES POESJPSS)


ndash Other models


Path Forward

Slide 22



UNCLASSIFIED


Path Forward

Slide 23


~$1M = one Cubesat







UNCLASSIFIED











Nowcast to forecast

Slide 24


UNCLASSIFIED




Slide 25


UNCLASSIFIED


Slide 26


Flux 15 MeV

RBSP-A MagEIS

Flux 15 MeV

January 2014

AE-9

Flux 15 MeV


UNCLASSIFIED



Slide 7



and cross diffusion





VERB (UCLA)

DREAM3D (LANL)

hellip


UNCLASSIFIED



Slide 8


For the waves












models






UNCLASSIFIED






Initial State

Slide 9

Data

Assimilation

Model

GEO amp GPS amp

Polar

Observations


UNCLASSIFIED



Slide 10




35] and gt35 deg


gt300nT



UNCLASSIFIED



not adequate


Chorus Hiss EMIC

Slide 11

Glo

ba

l time

-d

ep

en

de

nt c

ho

rus

ma

ps

from

low

-E

arth

-o

rbit e

lec

tron

pre

cip

itatio

n a

nd

Va

n A

llen

Pro

be

s d

ata

Che

n Y

et a

l Ge

op

hysic

al R

ese

arc

h L

ette

rs 2

01

4 F

eb

16

Vo

l41

(3)

Similar work





UNCLASSIFIED


Chorus Hiss EMIC

Slide 12


VLF measurements


Ground based

observations as

proxies

Need research to

establish transfer

functions between

ground

observations and

in-situ waves


UNCLASSIFIED











varying DLL



al 2012

ULF

Slide 13


UNCLASSIFIED






Outer boundary

Slide 14


networks from


models and their


al JGR 2012


from

wwwlanlstarlanlgov

(Josef Koller)


UNCLASSIFIED










assimilative code


Lichtenberger)


Slide 15


C Jeffery LANL


UNCLASSIFIED






along field line



UNCLASSIFIED







UNCLASSIFIED













Low energy boundary

Slide 18


UNCLASSIFIED



Slide 19











Themis D

dawn

6RE

equator


UNCLASSIFIED



Oct 2012 event

Slide 20

3L

4

5

6RD only


3

L

4

5

6

7

9

11

10-6

10-7

10-8

10-9

L

TS045

10-10



2012

Oct 10 Oct 11

10-6

10-7

10-8

10-9

10-10



(100s keV)

3

L

4

5

6 10-6

10-7

10-8

10-9

10-10

RD+chorus

micro=88 MeVG

K=01 G12Re

3

L

4

5

6

RD only


2012

Oct 10 Oct 11

electron flux data

100

102

104

106

108L=42 αeq=50o


UNCLASSIFIED



Oct 2012 event

Slide 21

3L

4

5

6RD only


3

L

4

5

6

7

9

11

10-6

10-7

10-8

10-9

L

TS045

10-10



2012

Oct 10 Oct 11

10-6

10-7

10-8

10-9

10-10



(100s keV)

3

L

4

5

6 10-6

10-7

10-8

10-9

10-10

RD+chorus +Seed

micro=88 MeVG

K=01 G12Re

3

L

4

5

6

RD only


2012

Oct 10 Oct 11

electron flux data

100

102

104

106

108L=42 αeq=50o


UNCLASSIFIED







(GOES POESJPSS)


ndash Other models


Path Forward

Slide 22



UNCLASSIFIED


Path Forward

Slide 23


~$1M = one Cubesat







UNCLASSIFIED











Nowcast to forecast

Slide 24


UNCLASSIFIED




Slide 25


UNCLASSIFIED


Slide 26


Flux 15 MeV

RBSP-A MagEIS

Flux 15 MeV

January 2014

AE-9

Flux 15 MeV


UNCLASSIFIED



Slide 8


For the waves












models






UNCLASSIFIED






Initial State

Slide 9

Data

Assimilation

Model

GEO amp GPS amp

Polar

Observations


UNCLASSIFIED



Slide 10




35] and gt35 deg


gt300nT



UNCLASSIFIED



not adequate


Chorus Hiss EMIC

Slide 11

Glo

ba

l time

-d

ep

en

de

nt c

ho

rus

ma

ps

from

low

-E

arth

-o

rbit e

lec

tron

pre

cip

itatio

n a

nd

Va

n A

llen

Pro

be

s d

ata

Che

n Y

et a

l Ge

op

hysic

al R

ese

arc

h L

ette

rs 2

01

4 F

eb

16

Vo

l41

(3)

Similar work





UNCLASSIFIED


Chorus Hiss EMIC

Slide 12


VLF measurements


Ground based

observations as

proxies

Need research to

establish transfer

functions between

ground

observations and

in-situ waves


UNCLASSIFIED











varying DLL



al 2012

ULF

Slide 13


UNCLASSIFIED






Outer boundary

Slide 14


networks from


models and their


al JGR 2012


from

wwwlanlstarlanlgov

(Josef Koller)


UNCLASSIFIED










assimilative code


Lichtenberger)


Slide 15


C Jeffery LANL


UNCLASSIFIED






along field line



UNCLASSIFIED







UNCLASSIFIED













Low energy boundary

Slide 18


UNCLASSIFIED



Slide 19











Themis D

dawn

6RE

equator


UNCLASSIFIED



Oct 2012 event

Slide 20

3L

4

5

6RD only


3

L

4

5

6

7

9

11

10-6

10-7

10-8

10-9

L

TS045

10-10



2012

Oct 10 Oct 11

10-6

10-7

10-8

10-9

10-10



(100s keV)

3

L

4

5

6 10-6

10-7

10-8

10-9

10-10

RD+chorus

micro=88 MeVG

K=01 G12Re

3

L

4

5

6

RD only


2012

Oct 10 Oct 11

electron flux data

100

102

104

106

108L=42 αeq=50o


UNCLASSIFIED



Oct 2012 event

Slide 21

3L

4

5

6RD only


3

L

4

5

6

7

9

11

10-6

10-7

10-8

10-9

L

TS045

10-10



2012

Oct 10 Oct 11

10-6

10-7

10-8

10-9

10-10



(100s keV)

3

L

4

5

6 10-6

10-7

10-8

10-9

10-10

RD+chorus +Seed

micro=88 MeVG

K=01 G12Re

3

L

4

5

6

RD only


2012

Oct 10 Oct 11

electron flux data

100

102

104

106

108L=42 αeq=50o


UNCLASSIFIED







(GOES POESJPSS)


ndash Other models


Path Forward

Slide 22



UNCLASSIFIED


Path Forward

Slide 23


~$1M = one Cubesat







UNCLASSIFIED











Nowcast to forecast

Slide 24


UNCLASSIFIED




Slide 25


UNCLASSIFIED


Slide 26


Flux 15 MeV

RBSP-A MagEIS

Flux 15 MeV

January 2014

AE-9

Flux 15 MeV


UNCLASSIFIED






Initial State

Slide 9

Data

Assimilation

Model

GEO amp GPS amp

Polar

Observations


UNCLASSIFIED



Slide 10




35] and gt35 deg


gt300nT



UNCLASSIFIED



not adequate


Chorus Hiss EMIC

Slide 11

Glo

ba

l time

-d

ep

en

de

nt c

ho

rus

ma

ps

from

low

-E

arth

-o

rbit e

lec

tron

pre

cip

itatio

n a

nd

Va

n A

llen

Pro

be

s d

ata

Che

n Y

et a

l Ge

op

hysic

al R

ese

arc

h L

ette

rs 2

01

4 F

eb

16

Vo

l41

(3)

Similar work





UNCLASSIFIED


Chorus Hiss EMIC

Slide 12


VLF measurements


Ground based

observations as

proxies

Need research to

establish transfer

functions between

ground

observations and

in-situ waves


UNCLASSIFIED











varying DLL



al 2012

ULF

Slide 13


UNCLASSIFIED






Outer boundary

Slide 14


networks from


models and their


al JGR 2012


from

wwwlanlstarlanlgov

(Josef Koller)


UNCLASSIFIED










assimilative code


Lichtenberger)


Slide 15


C Jeffery LANL


UNCLASSIFIED






along field line



UNCLASSIFIED







UNCLASSIFIED













Low energy boundary

Slide 18


UNCLASSIFIED



Slide 19











Themis D

dawn

6RE

equator


UNCLASSIFIED



Oct 2012 event

Slide 20

3L

4

5

6RD only


3

L

4

5

6

7

9

11

10-6

10-7

10-8

10-9

L

TS045

10-10



2012

Oct 10 Oct 11

10-6

10-7

10-8

10-9

10-10



(100s keV)

3

L

4

5

6 10-6

10-7

10-8

10-9

10-10

RD+chorus

micro=88 MeVG

K=01 G12Re

3

L

4

5

6

RD only


2012

Oct 10 Oct 11

electron flux data

100

102

104

106

108L=42 αeq=50o


UNCLASSIFIED



Oct 2012 event

Slide 21

3L

4

5

6RD only


3

L

4

5

6

7

9

11

10-6

10-7

10-8

10-9

L

TS045

10-10



2012

Oct 10 Oct 11

10-6

10-7

10-8

10-9

10-10



(100s keV)

3

L

4

5

6 10-6

10-7

10-8

10-9

10-10

RD+chorus +Seed

micro=88 MeVG

K=01 G12Re

3

L

4

5

6

RD only


2012

Oct 10 Oct 11

electron flux data

100

102

104

106

108L=42 αeq=50o


UNCLASSIFIED







(GOES POESJPSS)


ndash Other models


Path Forward

Slide 22



UNCLASSIFIED


Path Forward

Slide 23


~$1M = one Cubesat







UNCLASSIFIED











Nowcast to forecast

Slide 24


UNCLASSIFIED




Slide 25


UNCLASSIFIED


Slide 26


Flux 15 MeV

RBSP-A MagEIS

Flux 15 MeV

January 2014

AE-9

Flux 15 MeV


UNCLASSIFIED



Slide 10




35] and gt35 deg


gt300nT



UNCLASSIFIED



not adequate


Chorus Hiss EMIC

Slide 11

Glo

ba

l time

-d

ep

en

de

nt c

ho

rus

ma

ps

from

low

-E

arth

-o

rbit e

lec

tron

pre

cip

itatio

n a

nd

Va

n A

llen

Pro

be

s d

ata

Che

n Y

et a

l Ge

op

hysic

al R

ese

arc

h L

ette

rs 2

01

4 F

eb

16

Vo

l41

(3)

Similar work





UNCLASSIFIED


Chorus Hiss EMIC

Slide 12


VLF measurements


Ground based

observations as

proxies

Need research to

establish transfer

functions between

ground

observations and

in-situ waves


UNCLASSIFIED











varying DLL



al 2012

ULF

Slide 13


UNCLASSIFIED






Outer boundary

Slide 14


networks from


models and their


al JGR 2012


from

wwwlanlstarlanlgov

(Josef Koller)


UNCLASSIFIED










assimilative code


Lichtenberger)


Slide 15


C Jeffery LANL


UNCLASSIFIED






along field line



UNCLASSIFIED







UNCLASSIFIED













Low energy boundary

Slide 18


UNCLASSIFIED



Slide 19











Themis D

dawn

6RE

equator


UNCLASSIFIED



Oct 2012 event

Slide 20

3L

4

5

6RD only


3

L

4

5

6

7

9

11

10-6

10-7

10-8

10-9

L

TS045

10-10



2012

Oct 10 Oct 11

10-6

10-7

10-8

10-9

10-10



(100s keV)

3

L

4

5

6 10-6

10-7

10-8

10-9

10-10

RD+chorus

micro=88 MeVG

K=01 G12Re

3

L

4

5

6

RD only


2012

Oct 10 Oct 11

electron flux data

100

102

104

106

108L=42 αeq=50o


UNCLASSIFIED



Oct 2012 event

Slide 21

3L

4

5

6RD only


3

L

4

5

6

7

9

11

10-6

10-7

10-8

10-9

L

TS045

10-10



2012

Oct 10 Oct 11

10-6

10-7

10-8

10-9

10-10



(100s keV)

3

L

4

5

6 10-6

10-7

10-8

10-9

10-10

RD+chorus +Seed

micro=88 MeVG

K=01 G12Re

3

L

4

5

6

RD only


2012

Oct 10 Oct 11

electron flux data

100

102

104

106

108L=42 αeq=50o


UNCLASSIFIED







(GOES POESJPSS)


ndash Other models


Path Forward

Slide 22



UNCLASSIFIED


Path Forward

Slide 23


~$1M = one Cubesat







UNCLASSIFIED











Nowcast to forecast

Slide 24


UNCLASSIFIED




Slide 25


UNCLASSIFIED


Slide 26


Flux 15 MeV

RBSP-A MagEIS

Flux 15 MeV

January 2014

AE-9

Flux 15 MeV


UNCLASSIFIED



not adequate


Chorus Hiss EMIC

Slide 11

Glo

ba

l time

-d

ep

en

de

nt c

ho

rus

ma

ps

from

low

-E

arth

-o

rbit e

lec

tron

pre

cip

itatio

n a

nd

Va

n A

llen

Pro

be

s d

ata

Che

n Y

et a

l Ge

op

hysic

al R

ese

arc

h L

ette

rs 2

01

4 F

eb

16

Vo

l41

(3)

Similar work





UNCLASSIFIED


Chorus Hiss EMIC

Slide 12


VLF measurements


Ground based

observations as

proxies

Need research to

establish transfer

functions between

ground

observations and

in-situ waves


UNCLASSIFIED











varying DLL



al 2012

ULF

Slide 13


UNCLASSIFIED






Outer boundary

Slide 14


networks from


models and their


al JGR 2012


from

wwwlanlstarlanlgov

(Josef Koller)


UNCLASSIFIED










assimilative code


Lichtenberger)


Slide 15


C Jeffery LANL


UNCLASSIFIED






along field line



UNCLASSIFIED







UNCLASSIFIED













Low energy boundary

Slide 18


UNCLASSIFIED



Slide 19











Themis D

dawn

6RE

equator


UNCLASSIFIED



Oct 2012 event

Slide 20

3L

4

5

6RD only


3

L

4

5

6

7

9

11

10-6

10-7

10-8

10-9

L

TS045

10-10



2012

Oct 10 Oct 11

10-6

10-7

10-8

10-9

10-10



(100s keV)

3

L

4

5

6 10-6

10-7

10-8

10-9

10-10

RD+chorus

micro=88 MeVG

K=01 G12Re

3

L

4

5

6

RD only


2012

Oct 10 Oct 11

electron flux data

100

102

104

106

108L=42 αeq=50o


UNCLASSIFIED



Oct 2012 event

Slide 21

3L

4

5

6RD only


3

L

4

5

6

7

9

11

10-6

10-7

10-8

10-9

L

TS045

10-10



2012

Oct 10 Oct 11

10-6

10-7

10-8

10-9

10-10



(100s keV)

3

L

4

5

6 10-6

10-7

10-8

10-9

10-10

RD+chorus +Seed

micro=88 MeVG

K=01 G12Re

3

L

4

5

6

RD only


2012

Oct 10 Oct 11

electron flux data

100

102

104

106

108L=42 αeq=50o


UNCLASSIFIED







(GOES POESJPSS)


ndash Other models


Path Forward

Slide 22



UNCLASSIFIED


Path Forward

Slide 23


~$1M = one Cubesat







UNCLASSIFIED











Nowcast to forecast

Slide 24


UNCLASSIFIED




Slide 25


UNCLASSIFIED


Slide 26


Flux 15 MeV

RBSP-A MagEIS

Flux 15 MeV

January 2014

AE-9

Flux 15 MeV


UNCLASSIFIED


Chorus Hiss EMIC

Slide 12


VLF measurements


Ground based

observations as

proxies

Need research to

establish transfer

functions between

ground

observations and

in-situ waves


UNCLASSIFIED











varying DLL



al 2012

ULF

Slide 13


UNCLASSIFIED






Outer boundary

Slide 14


networks from


models and their


al JGR 2012


from

wwwlanlstarlanlgov

(Josef Koller)


UNCLASSIFIED










assimilative code


Lichtenberger)


Slide 15


C Jeffery LANL


UNCLASSIFIED






along field line



UNCLASSIFIED







UNCLASSIFIED













Low energy boundary

Slide 18


UNCLASSIFIED



Slide 19











Themis D

dawn

6RE

equator


UNCLASSIFIED



Oct 2012 event

Slide 20

3L

4

5

6RD only


3

L

4

5

6

7

9

11

10-6

10-7

10-8

10-9

L

TS045

10-10



2012

Oct 10 Oct 11

10-6

10-7

10-8

10-9

10-10



(100s keV)

3

L

4

5

6 10-6

10-7

10-8

10-9

10-10

RD+chorus

micro=88 MeVG

K=01 G12Re

3

L

4

5

6

RD only


2012

Oct 10 Oct 11

electron flux data

100

102

104

106

108L=42 αeq=50o


UNCLASSIFIED



Oct 2012 event

Slide 21

3L

4

5

6RD only


3

L

4

5

6

7

9

11

10-6

10-7

10-8

10-9

L

TS045

10-10



2012

Oct 10 Oct 11

10-6

10-7

10-8

10-9

10-10



(100s keV)

3

L

4

5

6 10-6

10-7

10-8

10-9

10-10

RD+chorus +Seed

micro=88 MeVG

K=01 G12Re

3

L

4

5

6

RD only


2012

Oct 10 Oct 11

electron flux data

100

102

104

106

108L=42 αeq=50o


UNCLASSIFIED







(GOES POESJPSS)


ndash Other models


Path Forward

Slide 22



UNCLASSIFIED


Path Forward

Slide 23


~$1M = one Cubesat







UNCLASSIFIED











Nowcast to forecast

Slide 24


UNCLASSIFIED




Slide 25


UNCLASSIFIED


Slide 26


Flux 15 MeV

RBSP-A MagEIS

Flux 15 MeV

January 2014

AE-9

Flux 15 MeV


UNCLASSIFIED











varying DLL



al 2012

ULF

Slide 13


UNCLASSIFIED






Outer boundary

Slide 14


networks from


models and their


al JGR 2012


from

wwwlanlstarlanlgov

(Josef Koller)


UNCLASSIFIED










assimilative code


Lichtenberger)


Slide 15


C Jeffery LANL


UNCLASSIFIED






along field line



UNCLASSIFIED







UNCLASSIFIED













Low energy boundary

Slide 18


UNCLASSIFIED



Slide 19











Themis D

dawn

6RE

equator


UNCLASSIFIED



Oct 2012 event

Slide 20

3L

4

5

6RD only


3

L

4

5

6

7

9

11

10-6

10-7

10-8

10-9

L

TS045

10-10



2012

Oct 10 Oct 11

10-6

10-7

10-8

10-9

10-10



(100s keV)

3

L

4

5

6 10-6

10-7

10-8

10-9

10-10

RD+chorus

micro=88 MeVG

K=01 G12Re

3

L

4

5

6

RD only


2012

Oct 10 Oct 11

electron flux data

100

102

104

106

108L=42 αeq=50o


UNCLASSIFIED



Oct 2012 event

Slide 21

3L

4

5

6RD only


3

L

4

5

6

7

9

11

10-6

10-7

10-8

10-9

L

TS045

10-10



2012

Oct 10 Oct 11

10-6

10-7

10-8

10-9

10-10



(100s keV)

3

L

4

5

6 10-6

10-7

10-8

10-9

10-10

RD+chorus +Seed

micro=88 MeVG

K=01 G12Re

3

L

4

5

6

RD only


2012

Oct 10 Oct 11

electron flux data

100

102

104

106

108L=42 αeq=50o


UNCLASSIFIED







(GOES POESJPSS)


ndash Other models


Path Forward

Slide 22



UNCLASSIFIED


Path Forward

Slide 23


~$1M = one Cubesat







UNCLASSIFIED











Nowcast to forecast

Slide 24


UNCLASSIFIED




Slide 25


UNCLASSIFIED


Slide 26


Flux 15 MeV

RBSP-A MagEIS

Flux 15 MeV

January 2014

AE-9

Flux 15 MeV


UNCLASSIFIED






Outer boundary

Slide 14


networks from


models and their


al JGR 2012


from

wwwlanlstarlanlgov

(Josef Koller)


UNCLASSIFIED










assimilative code


Lichtenberger)


Slide 15


C Jeffery LANL


UNCLASSIFIED






along field line



UNCLASSIFIED







UNCLASSIFIED













Low energy boundary

Slide 18


UNCLASSIFIED



Slide 19











Themis D

dawn

6RE

equator


UNCLASSIFIED



Oct 2012 event

Slide 20

3L

4

5

6RD only


3

L

4

5

6

7

9

11

10-6

10-7

10-8

10-9

L

TS045

10-10



2012

Oct 10 Oct 11

10-6

10-7

10-8

10-9

10-10



(100s keV)

3

L

4

5

6 10-6

10-7

10-8

10-9

10-10

RD+chorus

micro=88 MeVG

K=01 G12Re

3

L

4

5

6

RD only


2012

Oct 10 Oct 11

electron flux data

100

102

104

106

108L=42 αeq=50o


UNCLASSIFIED



Oct 2012 event

Slide 21

3L

4

5

6RD only


3

L

4

5

6

7

9

11

10-6

10-7

10-8

10-9

L

TS045

10-10



2012

Oct 10 Oct 11

10-6

10-7

10-8

10-9

10-10



(100s keV)

3

L

4

5

6 10-6

10-7

10-8

10-9

10-10

RD+chorus +Seed

micro=88 MeVG

K=01 G12Re

3

L

4

5

6

RD only


2012

Oct 10 Oct 11

electron flux data

100

102

104

106

108L=42 αeq=50o


UNCLASSIFIED







(GOES POESJPSS)


ndash Other models


Path Forward

Slide 22



UNCLASSIFIED


Path Forward

Slide 23


~$1M = one Cubesat







UNCLASSIFIED











Nowcast to forecast

Slide 24


UNCLASSIFIED




Slide 25


UNCLASSIFIED


Slide 26


Flux 15 MeV

RBSP-A MagEIS

Flux 15 MeV

January 2014

AE-9

Flux 15 MeV


UNCLASSIFIED










assimilative code


Lichtenberger)


Slide 15


C Jeffery LANL


UNCLASSIFIED






along field line



UNCLASSIFIED







UNCLASSIFIED













Low energy boundary

Slide 18


UNCLASSIFIED



Slide 19











Themis D

dawn

6RE

equator


UNCLASSIFIED



Oct 2012 event

Slide 20

3L

4

5

6RD only


3

L

4

5

6

7

9

11

10-6

10-7

10-8

10-9

L

TS045

10-10



2012

Oct 10 Oct 11

10-6

10-7

10-8

10-9

10-10



(100s keV)

3

L

4

5

6 10-6

10-7

10-8

10-9

10-10

RD+chorus

micro=88 MeVG

K=01 G12Re

3

L

4

5

6

RD only


2012

Oct 10 Oct 11

electron flux data

100

102

104

106

108L=42 αeq=50o


UNCLASSIFIED



Oct 2012 event

Slide 21

3L

4

5

6RD only


3

L

4

5

6

7

9

11

10-6

10-7

10-8

10-9

L

TS045

10-10



2012

Oct 10 Oct 11

10-6

10-7

10-8

10-9

10-10



(100s keV)

3

L

4

5

6 10-6

10-7

10-8

10-9

10-10

RD+chorus +Seed

micro=88 MeVG

K=01 G12Re

3

L

4

5

6

RD only


2012

Oct 10 Oct 11

electron flux data

100

102

104

106

108L=42 αeq=50o


UNCLASSIFIED







(GOES POESJPSS)


ndash Other models


Path Forward

Slide 22



UNCLASSIFIED


Path Forward

Slide 23


~$1M = one Cubesat







UNCLASSIFIED











Nowcast to forecast

Slide 24


UNCLASSIFIED




Slide 25


UNCLASSIFIED


Slide 26


Flux 15 MeV

RBSP-A MagEIS

Flux 15 MeV

January 2014

AE-9

Flux 15 MeV


UNCLASSIFIED






along field line



UNCLASSIFIED







UNCLASSIFIED













Low energy boundary

Slide 18


UNCLASSIFIED



Slide 19











Themis D

dawn

6RE

equator


UNCLASSIFIED



Oct 2012 event

Slide 20

3L

4

5

6RD only


3

L

4

5

6

7

9

11

10-6

10-7

10-8

10-9

L

TS045

10-10



2012

Oct 10 Oct 11

10-6

10-7

10-8

10-9

10-10



(100s keV)

3

L

4

5

6 10-6

10-7

10-8

10-9

10-10

RD+chorus

micro=88 MeVG

K=01 G12Re

3

L

4

5

6

RD only


2012

Oct 10 Oct 11

electron flux data

100

102

104

106

108L=42 αeq=50o


UNCLASSIFIED



Oct 2012 event

Slide 21

3L

4

5

6RD only


3

L

4

5

6

7

9

11

10-6

10-7

10-8

10-9

L

TS045

10-10



2012

Oct 10 Oct 11

10-6

10-7

10-8

10-9

10-10



(100s keV)

3

L

4

5

6 10-6

10-7

10-8

10-9

10-10

RD+chorus +Seed

micro=88 MeVG

K=01 G12Re

3

L

4

5

6

RD only


2012

Oct 10 Oct 11

electron flux data

100

102

104

106

108L=42 αeq=50o


UNCLASSIFIED







(GOES POESJPSS)


ndash Other models


Path Forward

Slide 22



UNCLASSIFIED


Path Forward

Slide 23


~$1M = one Cubesat







UNCLASSIFIED











Nowcast to forecast

Slide 24


UNCLASSIFIED




Slide 25


UNCLASSIFIED


Slide 26


Flux 15 MeV

RBSP-A MagEIS

Flux 15 MeV

January 2014

AE-9

Flux 15 MeV


UNCLASSIFIED







UNCLASSIFIED













Low energy boundary

Slide 18


UNCLASSIFIED



Slide 19











Themis D

dawn

6RE

equator


UNCLASSIFIED



Oct 2012 event

Slide 20

3L

4

5

6RD only


3

L

4

5

6

7

9

11

10-6

10-7

10-8

10-9

L

TS045

10-10



2012

Oct 10 Oct 11

10-6

10-7

10-8

10-9

10-10



(100s keV)

3

L

4

5

6 10-6

10-7

10-8

10-9

10-10

RD+chorus

micro=88 MeVG

K=01 G12Re

3

L

4

5

6

RD only


2012

Oct 10 Oct 11

electron flux data

100

102

104

106

108L=42 αeq=50o


UNCLASSIFIED



Oct 2012 event

Slide 21

3L

4

5

6RD only


3

L

4

5

6

7

9

11

10-6

10-7

10-8

10-9

L

TS045

10-10



2012

Oct 10 Oct 11

10-6

10-7

10-8

10-9

10-10



(100s keV)

3

L

4

5

6 10-6

10-7

10-8

10-9

10-10

RD+chorus +Seed

micro=88 MeVG

K=01 G12Re

3

L

4

5

6

RD only


2012

Oct 10 Oct 11

electron flux data

100

102

104

106

108L=42 αeq=50o


UNCLASSIFIED







(GOES POESJPSS)


ndash Other models


Path Forward

Slide 22



UNCLASSIFIED


Path Forward

Slide 23


~$1M = one Cubesat







UNCLASSIFIED











Nowcast to forecast

Slide 24


UNCLASSIFIED




Slide 25


UNCLASSIFIED


Slide 26


Flux 15 MeV

RBSP-A MagEIS

Flux 15 MeV

January 2014

AE-9

Flux 15 MeV


UNCLASSIFIED













Low energy boundary

Slide 18


UNCLASSIFIED



Slide 19











Themis D

dawn

6RE

equator


UNCLASSIFIED



Oct 2012 event

Slide 20

3L

4

5

6RD only


3

L

4

5

6

7

9

11

10-6

10-7

10-8

10-9

L

TS045

10-10



2012

Oct 10 Oct 11

10-6

10-7

10-8

10-9

10-10



(100s keV)

3

L

4

5

6 10-6

10-7

10-8

10-9

10-10

RD+chorus

micro=88 MeVG

K=01 G12Re

3

L

4

5

6

RD only


2012

Oct 10 Oct 11

electron flux data

100

102

104

106

108L=42 αeq=50o


UNCLASSIFIED



Oct 2012 event

Slide 21

3L

4

5

6RD only


3

L

4

5

6

7

9

11

10-6

10-7

10-8

10-9

L

TS045

10-10



2012

Oct 10 Oct 11

10-6

10-7

10-8

10-9

10-10



(100s keV)

3

L

4

5

6 10-6

10-7

10-8

10-9

10-10

RD+chorus +Seed

micro=88 MeVG

K=01 G12Re

3

L

4

5

6

RD only


2012

Oct 10 Oct 11

electron flux data

100

102

104

106

108L=42 αeq=50o


UNCLASSIFIED







(GOES POESJPSS)


ndash Other models


Path Forward

Slide 22



UNCLASSIFIED


Path Forward

Slide 23


~$1M = one Cubesat







UNCLASSIFIED











Nowcast to forecast

Slide 24


UNCLASSIFIED




Slide 25


UNCLASSIFIED


Slide 26


Flux 15 MeV

RBSP-A MagEIS

Flux 15 MeV

January 2014

AE-9

Flux 15 MeV


UNCLASSIFIED



Slide 19











Themis D

dawn

6RE

equator


UNCLASSIFIED



Oct 2012 event

Slide 20

3L

4

5

6RD only


3

L

4

5

6

7

9

11

10-6

10-7

10-8

10-9

L

TS045

10-10



2012

Oct 10 Oct 11

10-6

10-7

10-8

10-9

10-10



(100s keV)

3

L

4

5

6 10-6

10-7

10-8

10-9

10-10

RD+chorus

micro=88 MeVG

K=01 G12Re

3

L

4

5

6

RD only


2012

Oct 10 Oct 11

electron flux data

100

102

104

106

108L=42 αeq=50o


UNCLASSIFIED



Oct 2012 event

Slide 21

3L

4

5

6RD only


3

L

4

5

6

7

9

11

10-6

10-7

10-8

10-9

L

TS045

10-10



2012

Oct 10 Oct 11

10-6

10-7

10-8

10-9

10-10



(100s keV)

3

L

4

5

6 10-6

10-7

10-8

10-9

10-10

RD+chorus +Seed

micro=88 MeVG

K=01 G12Re

3

L

4

5

6

RD only


2012

Oct 10 Oct 11

electron flux data

100

102

104

106

108L=42 αeq=50o


UNCLASSIFIED







(GOES POESJPSS)


ndash Other models


Path Forward

Slide 22



UNCLASSIFIED


Path Forward

Slide 23


~$1M = one Cubesat







UNCLASSIFIED











Nowcast to forecast

Slide 24


UNCLASSIFIED




Slide 25


UNCLASSIFIED


Slide 26


Flux 15 MeV

RBSP-A MagEIS

Flux 15 MeV

January 2014

AE-9

Flux 15 MeV


UNCLASSIFIED



Oct 2012 event

Slide 20

3L

4

5

6RD only


3

L

4

5

6

7

9

11

10-6

10-7

10-8

10-9

L

TS045

10-10



2012

Oct 10 Oct 11

10-6

10-7

10-8

10-9

10-10



(100s keV)

3

L

4

5

6 10-6

10-7

10-8

10-9

10-10

RD+chorus

micro=88 MeVG

K=01 G12Re

3

L

4

5

6

RD only


2012

Oct 10 Oct 11

electron flux data

100

102

104

106

108L=42 αeq=50o


UNCLASSIFIED



Oct 2012 event

Slide 21

3L

4

5

6RD only


3

L

4

5

6

7

9

11

10-6

10-7

10-8

10-9

L

TS045

10-10



2012

Oct 10 Oct 11

10-6

10-7

10-8

10-9

10-10



(100s keV)

3

L

4

5

6 10-6

10-7

10-8

10-9

10-10

RD+chorus +Seed

micro=88 MeVG

K=01 G12Re

3

L

4

5

6

RD only


2012

Oct 10 Oct 11

electron flux data

100

102

104

106

108L=42 αeq=50o


UNCLASSIFIED







(GOES POESJPSS)


ndash Other models


Path Forward

Slide 22



UNCLASSIFIED


Path Forward

Slide 23


~$1M = one Cubesat







UNCLASSIFIED











Nowcast to forecast

Slide 24


UNCLASSIFIED




Slide 25


UNCLASSIFIED


Slide 26


Flux 15 MeV

RBSP-A MagEIS

Flux 15 MeV

January 2014

AE-9

Flux 15 MeV


UNCLASSIFIED



Oct 2012 event

Slide 21

3L

4

5

6RD only


3

L

4

5

6

7

9

11

10-6

10-7

10-8

10-9

L

TS045

10-10



2012

Oct 10 Oct 11

10-6

10-7

10-8

10-9

10-10



(100s keV)

3

L

4

5

6 10-6

10-7

10-8

10-9

10-10

RD+chorus +Seed

micro=88 MeVG

K=01 G12Re

3

L

4

5

6

RD only


2012

Oct 10 Oct 11

electron flux data

100

102

104

106

108L=42 αeq=50o


UNCLASSIFIED







(GOES POESJPSS)


ndash Other models


Path Forward

Slide 22



UNCLASSIFIED


Path Forward

Slide 23


~$1M = one Cubesat







UNCLASSIFIED











Nowcast to forecast

Slide 24


UNCLASSIFIED




Slide 25


UNCLASSIFIED


Slide 26


Flux 15 MeV

RBSP-A MagEIS

Flux 15 MeV

January 2014

AE-9

Flux 15 MeV


UNCLASSIFIED







(GOES POESJPSS)


ndash Other models


Path Forward

Slide 22



UNCLASSIFIED


Path Forward

Slide 23


~$1M = one Cubesat







UNCLASSIFIED











Nowcast to forecast

Slide 24


UNCLASSIFIED




Slide 25


UNCLASSIFIED


Slide 26


Flux 15 MeV

RBSP-A MagEIS

Flux 15 MeV

January 2014

AE-9

Flux 15 MeV


UNCLASSIFIED


Path Forward

Slide 23


~$1M = one Cubesat







UNCLASSIFIED











Nowcast to forecast

Slide 24


UNCLASSIFIED




Slide 25


UNCLASSIFIED


Slide 26


Flux 15 MeV

RBSP-A MagEIS

Flux 15 MeV

January 2014

AE-9

Flux 15 MeV


UNCLASSIFIED











Nowcast to forecast

Slide 24


UNCLASSIFIED




Slide 25


UNCLASSIFIED


Slide 26


Flux 15 MeV

RBSP-A MagEIS

Flux 15 MeV

January 2014

AE-9

Flux 15 MeV


UNCLASSIFIED




Slide 25


UNCLASSIFIED


Slide 26


Flux 15 MeV

RBSP-A MagEIS

Flux 15 MeV

January 2014

AE-9

Flux 15 MeV


UNCLASSIFIED


Slide 26


Flux 15 MeV

RBSP-A MagEIS

Flux 15 MeV

January 2014

AE-9

Flux 15 MeV

current state of radiation belt modeling: successes and...

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