cve 4070 construction engineering construction estimating prof. ralph v. locurcio, pe
TRANSCRIPT
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CVE 4070
Construction EngineeringConstruction EstimatingProf. Ralph V. Locurcio, PE
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Estimating Construction Work
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Estimating defined… A complex process involving the collection
of available information on the scope of a project, the expected resource consumption, and future changes in resource costs.
This information is synthesized in a visualization of the construction process and translated into an approximation of the final cost.
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Components of an estimate…
Systematic analysis of: Project components Equipment needed Construction methods Temporary work items Support activities Externalities
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Qualifications of an estimator… Extensive knowledge of:
Construction processes & methods Materials & methods Contracts & work practices Construction documents & details Background business factors Design & code requirements Verbal & written communications Good common sense & judgment
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Estimating Process Decision to bid Form the estimating team Estimate work plan
Type of estimate Procedures Documentation
Risk & contingency analysis Review & check the estimate Finalize the estimate
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Estimating & Bidding
KickoffMeeting
WorkPlan
EstablishStandards
UpdateDatabase
PrepareEstimate
DocumentEstimate
ReviewEstimate
Adjust Estimate?
SubmitBid
ProjectExecution
ProjectCompletion
Yes
No
Revise
Lessons Learned
Feedback to improve data base
Reality C
heck Yes
No
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Key Estimating Activities
Read the Plans, Specs & Contract
Conduct Site Visit
Decide Construction
MethodPrepare Schedule
Plan for Subcontracts
Plan for EquipmentMaterial Take-Offs
Estimate costs
Determine contingency
Analyze Risk Factors
Finalize Bid
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Two broad types of estimates… Conceptual
Used for early decisions & feasibility Rough estimate using minimal data Relies heavily on past data Level of accuracy about 70%
Detailed Used for major decisions; i.e. bids & budgets Based on final design documents Level of accuracy up to 95%
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Design 1 & 2 Estimates
Design 1 Design cost = detailed Construction cost = conceptual
Design 2 Design cost = actual Construction cost = detailed
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Conceptual Estimates-1
Based on historical data
Accuracy = +30%
Used for planning when no design exists
Used to check validity of detailed estimate
Sometimes called “parametric” estimates
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Conceptual estimates-2
Based on prior experience: Cost per SF or CF... volume Weight check… weight of equipment Cost-capacity factor- ratio of Q/$ Comparative cost of structure – $/unit
Feasibility estimates Appropriations estimates Time & location adjustments
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Comparative cost of structure… Basis is cost per unit based on past
experience with similar units. Compare structures of like construction, (e.g.
school: steel, concrete, quality, local labor, weather)
Develop cost per unit, e.g. A$/pupil = A Cost/A pupils =
$1,000,000/100 = $10k/pupil
Apply to new construction: B Cost = B pupils x A$/pupilB Cost = 200 x $10k = $2,000,000
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Examples:
Schools: $/pupil Bridges: $/feet of span Stadium: $/seat Hospital: $/beds Offices: $/ft2
Warehouses: $/ft3
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Variations of comparative cost…
Floor area… cost/ft2 … but Total horizontal area… all floors equal Finished floor area… $ based on type finish Cubic foot of volume… floor height varies
Plant cost ratio… process plant ratiodifferentiates machine ft2 from admin ft2
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Cost of equipment method…
Cost of equipment is dominant factor Estimate based on % of cost allocated to
equipment relative to total cost of facility Estimated cost is proportional to known cost of
equipment
Must adjust for time & location
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Plant Cost Ratio Method
Methods: Panel… hist data on “typical” panels Bay… hist data on “typical” bays Plant component… equip cost + other TPC = ET/(1-PT)
Where ET=equip total/(1-% all other costs) TPC = $$$ equip/(1-30%) = $500,000/.70 = $714,285
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Time & Location adjustments…
Cost indexing Based on similar “group” of key items Compare “group” over time or location Final cost based on ratio x calculated cost:
Est Cost = T2/T1 x Calc Cost
$500,000 = 1.00/.96 x $500,000 = $520,000 Costs have escalated by 4% from T1 to T2
Est Cost = (T2/T1)(L2/L1) x Calc Cost
$520,000 = 1.00/1.25 x $520,000 = $416,000Costs at L1 were 25% more expensive than L2
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Cost forecasting… “The future ain’t what it used to be”…
Yogi Berra Need to project costs to mid-point of the
construction year(s) for budgeting
Generally average past 2-5 years cost data & project forward @ 3-5% per year (inflation)
(Year 1) (Year 2)
$416,000 x 1.03 = $428,480 x 1.03 = $441,334
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Detailed estimates…
Based on three primary factors:
A. Quantities… resources
B. Constructability… methods
C. Risk… externalities
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A. Quantity factors…
Technology in project - complexity Milestone deadlines for work - timing Material & equipment - availability Staffing needed – skill & availability Contract terms – allocation of risk Amount of competition – markets Market fluctuation in materials, labor, equipment
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B. Constructability factors… Construction quality – skill required Allowable tolerances – productivity Complexity of design – learning curve Flexibility of methods – special terms Quality of plans & specs – unknowns
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C. Risk factors… Unspecified material or workmanship Differing site conditions Error in bidding Changes in cost over time Subcontractor error or failures Weather & environmental issues Strikes & labor issues Utilities & support issues
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Accuracy increases over time…
% Accuracy
% D
esi
gn
5%
5
%
5
0%
95
%
0 5 30 70 95 100
100
90
60
30
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Estimating process…
1. Determine project characteristics:Scope, Constructability, Risk
2. Examine the project design & site3. Structure the estimate 4. Determine elements of cost 5. Calculate estimate
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Examine Project Design… Technical specifications Referenced standards Project drawings Testing and performance Special methods or procedures Physical elements & site characteristics Errors & omissions
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Structure the estimate… Structure often follows specification template Ensure nothing left out Need a plan for completing the project Logical flow of resources & materials Productivity factors
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CSI Master Format-1
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CSI Master Format-2
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Determine elements of cost… Labor- craft & skill resources; sub-contractors;
union labor; wage rates; training; “effective” labor rates; productivity factors (weather, complexity, experience, management)
Material- price, shipping, availability, storage, relation to specifications
Equipment- purchase vs. lease, single use, down time, cost of maintenance
Capital- interest rates, payment flow, retainage Time- overhead costs, required completion date,
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Calculate the estimate… Material take-off from plans
1. Quantities of all construction materials2. Compare with specifications
Labor cost for construction or installation1. Effective labor rates2. Team composition & duration
Construction equipment schedule1. On hand vs. lease or purchase2. Time on job
Follow elements of cost1. Ensure all items are covered
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Babcock MS Project critique…
Score your own schedule Make sure your name is on the sheet Staple both together Turn-in
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Scoring 1. Schedule must use MS Project 15
2. Schedule must be on 1-2 page; landscape format 15
3. Must use task sequencing & overlap per your Flow Diagram 15
4. All activities must be labeled with activity names to the right of the bar 5
5. All activities must show % complete to left of bar 5
6. All work must start on Janurary 12, 2015 10
7. All activities must be completed NLT April 10, 2015 10
8. All activity bars must be colored blue & use cross hatch pattern 5
9. Include 3 "phase" activities with black bars 5
10. Include the project title & your name in the heading 5
11. You must add the durations and show durations on the schedule 5
12. You may make adjustments to the schedule per your flow chart 5
Extra credit 100
13. Use of lead or lag precedence 10
14. Use of multi-colored bars 10
Note: The following items are required for full credit:
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Last Slide
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Ethics Paper – due Nov 27
NSPE Rules of Professional Conduct Read all rules Summarize each of the obligations in one
paragraph Pick a case study: 1,7,58,59,60
Write a 2-page paper applying NSPE to the issues presented in the case
What errors were made, how should the engineer behave in the case
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Registration info for Spring
CVE 4074/5074 – see CRN 13795 Leading Construction Operations Syllabus:
1- Personal Leadership- your leadership style2- Organizational Leadership- corporate style3- Team Leadership- leading a team4- Includes segment on ethics5- Includes professional communications