daily i-forex-report 15 may 2013 by epic research
TRANSCRIPT
WWW.EPICRESEARCH.CO +91 7316642300
Dollar Starting to Lose Ground with EUR/USD, USD/JPY
Euro Gains Limited Ground on News of Cyprus, Greek Rescue Payments
Dollar Thunders Higher, Traders Positioned for Further Strength
Japanese Yen Given Another Reprieve by G7, but Does that Keep the Yen Falling?
It is almost humorous to see the ‘interpretations’ of the G7 meetings by different policy officials. From Japan, the assessment was that there was no concern raised about the level of the Japanese yen and global leaders were implicitly supportive of the country’s efforts to this point to ‘beat deflation’. However, according to German Finance Minister Schaeuble, there was an ‘intense’ discussion on the matter. What matters to the yen and other currencies engaged in the unnamed FX war (or ‘competitive devaluation’ if we want to avoid the full term) is what actions are taken to interrupt the current policy. In this case, nothing changed. However, that doesn’t fundamentally alter the Japanese currency’s outlook. This currency is at the beck and call of risk trends. If risk slides, deleveraging overextended and underfunded carry trades will follow quickly.
TRADING TIPS
SELL EURUSD BELOW
1.2970 TGT 1.2950/1.2930
SL 1.300
SELL USDJPY BELOW
101.30 TGT 101.10/100.90
SL 101.60
SELL GBPUSD BELOW
1.5270 TGT 1.5250/1.5230
SL 1.5300
HEADLINES
HOURLY EURUSD CHART
HOURLY EURUSD CHART
ANALYSIS
OPEN: 1.3001 EURUSD LOOKS DOWNWARD
HIGH: 1.3029 TREND: BEARISH
LOW: 1.2975 STRATEGY: SELL ON RISE
CLOSE: 1.2983 MACD =>.0003(BEARISHSIGNAL)
RSI => 45.2830(BEARISH SIGNAL)
HOURLY USDJPY CHART
ANALYSIS
OPEN: 101.37 USDJPY LOOKS UPWARD
HIGH: 101.71 TREND: BULLISH
LOW: 101.34 STRATEGY: BUY ON DIP
CLOSE: 101.64 MACD =>-.04(BULLISH SIGNAL)
RSI => 49.85(BULLISHSIGNAL)
www.epicresearch.co + 91 7316642300
HOURLY GBPUSD CHART
ANALYSIS
OPEN: 1.5304 GBPUSD LOOKS DOWNWARD
HIGH: 1.5319 TREND: BEARISH
LOW: 1.5276 STRATEGY: SELL ON RISE
CLOSE: 1.5288 MACD =>-.0031(BEARISH SIGNAL)
RSI => 32.8167(BEARISH SIGNAL)
HOURLY EURGBP CHART
ANALYSIS
OPEN: 00.8495 EURGBP LOOKS DOWNWARD
HIGH: 00.8506 TREND: BEARISH
LOW: 00.8485 STRATEGY: SELL ON RISE
CLOSE: 00.8492 MACD =>.0009(BEARISH SIGNAL)
RSI => 67.5007(BEARISH SIGNAL)
www.epicresearch.co + 91 7316642300
HOURLY USD INDEX CHART
ANALYSIS
OPEN: 83.2150 USDINDEX LOOKS UPWARD
HIGH: 83.2620 TREND: BULLISH
LOW: 83.2080 STRATEGY: BUY ON DIP
CLOSE: 83.2370 MACD =>.0035(BULLISHSIGNAL)
RSI => 59.7100(BULLISH SIGNAL)
Date Time Currency Event Importance Actual Forecast Previous
Sun
May 12 22:14
NZD REINZ House Sales (YoY) (APR)
Medium 25.2%
10.9%
22:14
NZD REINZ Housing Price Index (APR)
Low 3661.5
3631.4
22:14
NZD REINZ Housing Price Index (MoM) (APR)
Low 0.8%
2.4%
22:45
NZD Food Prices (MoM) (APR)
Low 0.2%
-1.3%
23:50
JPY Japan Money Stock M2+CD (YoY) (APR)
Low 3.3 3.1% 3.1%
23:50
JPY Japan Money Stock M3 (YoY) (APR)
Low 2.6% 2.5% 2.5%
Mon
May 13 01:30
AUD Home Loans (MAR)
Medium 5.2% 4.0% 2.1%
01:30
AUD NAB Business Confidence (APR)
Medium -2
2
01:30
AUD Investment Lending (MAR)
Low 2.1%
1.9%
01:30
AUD NAB Business Conditions (APR)
Low -6
-7
01:30
AUD RBA Credit Card Balances (MAR)
Low A$49.7B
A$50.0B
01:30
AUD RBA Credit Card Purchases (MAR)
Low A$20.2B
A$20.2B
01:30
AUD Value of Loans (MoM) (MAR)
Low 5.8%
1.2%
05:30
CNY Fixed Assets Inv Excl. Rural YTD (YoY) (APR)
Medium 20.6% 21.0% 20.9%
05:30
CNY Industrial Production YTD (YoY) (APR)
Medium 9.4% 9.5% 9.5%
05:30
CNY Industrial Production (YoY) (APR)
Medium 9.3% 9.4% 8.9%
05:30
CNY Retail Sales YTD (YoY) (APR)
Medium 12.5% 12.6% 12.4%
05:30
CNY Retail Sales (YoY) (APR)
Medium 12.8% 12.8% 12.6%
07:15
CHF Retail Sales (Real) (YoY) (MAR)
Medium -0.9%
2.4%
12:30
USD Advance Retail Sales (APR)
High
-0.3% -0.4%
ECONOMIC CALLENDER
12:30
USD Retail Sales Less Autos (APR)
Medium
-0.2% -0.4%
12:30
USD Retail Sales "Control Group" (APR)
Low
0.3% -0.2%
12:30
USD Retail Sales Ex Auto & Gas (APR)
Low
0.3% -0.1%
13:00
EUR Euro Zone Finance Ministers Meet in Brussels
High
14:00
USD Business Inventories (MAR)
Medium
0.3% 0.1%
22:45
NZD Retail Sales Ex Inflation (QoQ) (1Q)
Medium
0.8% 2.1%
23:01
GBP RICS House Price Balance (APR)
Medium
2% -1%
23:50
JPY Domestic Corporate Goods Price Index (MoM) (APR)
Low
0.1% 0.1%
23:50
JPY Domestic Corporate Goods Price Index (YoY) (APR)
Low
-0.2% -0.5%
23:50
JPY Loans & Discounts Corp (YoY) (MAR)
Low
1.4%
Tue
May 14
CNY Actual FDI (YoY) (APR)
Medium
6.2% 5.7%
03:00
NZD Non Resident Bond Holdings (APR)
Low
68.3%
06:00
EUR German Consumer Price Index - EU Harmonised (YoY) (APR F)
High
1.1% 1.1%
06:00
EUR German Consumer Price Index (YoY) (APR F)
High
1.2% 1.2%
06:00
EUR German Consumer Price Index - EU Harmonised (MoM) (APR F)
Medium
-0.5% -0.5%
06:00
EUR German Consumer Price Index (MoM) (APR F)
Medium
-0.5% -0.5%
06:00
JPY Machine Tool Orders (YoY) (APR P)
Medium
-21.5%
06:00
EUR German Wholesale Price Index (MoM) (APR)
Low
-0.2%
06:00
EUR German Wholesale Price Index (YoY) (APR)
Low
0.3%
06:00
USD Fed's Plosser Speaks on Monetary Policy in Stockholm
Low
08:30
EUR Italian General Government Debt (MAR)
Medium
2017.6B
09:00
EUR German ZEW Survey (Economic Sentiment) (MAY)
High
40 36.3
09:00
EUR Euro-Zone Industrial Production w.d.a. (YoY) (MAR)
Medium
-2.1% -3.1%
09:00
EUR Euro-Zone ZEW Survey (Economic Sentiment) (MAY)
Medium
24.9
09:00
EUR German ZEW Survey (Current Situation) (MAY)
Medium
9.8 9.2
09:00
EUR Euro-Zone Industrial Production s.a. (MoM) (MAR)
Low
0.5% 0.4%
11:30
USD NFIB Small Business Optimism (APR)
Low
89.8 89.5
12:30
USD Import Price Index (MoM) (APR)
Low
-0.5% -0.5%
12:30
USD Import Price Index (YoY) (APR)
Low
-2.7%
13:00
CAD Teranet/National Bank HPI (MoM) (APR)
Low
0.4%
13:00
CAD Teranet/National Bank HPI (YoY) (APR)
Low
2.6%
13:00
CAD Teranet/National Bank HP Index (APR)
Low
153.31
15:00
USD New York Fed Releases Quarterly Household Debt Report
Medium
23:50
JPY Tertiary Industry Index (MoM) (MAR)
Medium
-0.7% 1.1%
Wed
May 15 01:30
AUD New Motor Vehicle Sales (MoM) (APR)
Low
-0.6%
01:30
AUD New Motor Vehicle Sales (YoY) (APR)
Low
4.5%
01:30
AUD Wage Cost Index (QoQ) (1Q)
Low
0.8% 0.8%
01:30
AUD Wage Cost Index (YoY) (1Q)
Low
3.3% 3.4%
05:00
JPY Consumer Confidence (APR)
Medium
45.5 44.8
05:30
EUR French Gross Domestic Product (YoY) (1Q P)
Medium
-0.4% -0.3%
05:30
EUR French Gross Domestic Product (QoQ) (1Q P)
Low
-0.1% -0.3%
06:00
EUR German Gross Domestic Product n.s.a. (YoY) (1Q P)
High
0.2% 0.1%
06:00
EUR German Gross Domestic Product w.d.a. (YoY) (1Q P)
High
0.2% 0.4%
06:00
EUR German Gross Domestic Product s.a. (QoQ) (1Q P)
Medium
0.3% -0.6%
07:15
CHF Producer & Import Prices (MoM) (APR)
Low
-0.2% 0.0%
07:15
CHF Producer & Import Prices (YoY) (APR)
Low
-0.3% -0.3%
08:00
EUR Italian Gross Domestic Product s.a. and w.d.a. (YoY) (1Q P)
Medium
-2.3% -2.8%
08:00
EUR Italian Gross Domestic Product s.a. and w.d.a. (QoQ) (1Q P)
Low
-0.4% -0.9%
08:30
GBP Jobless Claims Change (APR)
High
-3.0K -7.0K
08:30
GBP Average Weekly Earnings (3M/YoY) (MAR)
Medium
0.7% 0.8%
08:30
GBP Claimant Count Rate (APR)
Medium
4.6% 4.6%
08:30
GBP Employment Change (3M/3M) (MAR)
Medium
-20K -2K
08:30
GBP ILO Unemployment Rate (3M) (MAR)
Medium
7.9% 7.9%
08:30
GBP Weekly Earnings exBonus (3M/YoY) (MAR)
Low
0.8% 1.0%
09:00
EUR Euro-Zone Gross Domestic Product s.a. (YoY) (1Q A)
High
-0.9% -0.9%
09:00
CHF ZEW Survey (Expectations) (MAY)
Medium
20
09:00
EUR Euro-Zone Gross Domestic Product s.a. (QoQ) (1Q A)
Medium
-0.1% -0.6%
09:30
GBP Bank of England Inflation Report
High
11:00
USD MBA Mortgage Applications (MAY 10)
Low
7.0%
12:30
USD Producer Price Index Ex Food & Energy (YoY) (APR)
Medium
1.7% 1.7%
12:30
USD Producer Price Index (YoY) (APR)
Medium
0.8% 1.1%
12:30
CAD Manufacturing Shipments (MoM) (MAR)
Low
0.5% 2.6%
12:30
USD Empire Manufacturing (MAY)
Low
4 3.05
12:30
USD Producer Price Index Ex Food & Energy (MoM) (APR)
Low
0.1% 0.2%
12:30
USD Producer Price Index (MoM) (APR)
Low
-0.6% -0.6%
13:00
CAD Existing Home Sales (MoM) (APR)
Medium
2.40%
13:00
USD Net Long-term TIC Flows (MAR)
Medium
-$17.8B
13:00
USD Total Net TIC Flows (MAR)
Low
$53.6B
13:15
USD Industrial Production (APR)
Medium
-0.1% 0.4%
13:15
USD Manufacturing (SIC) Production (APR)
Medium
0.0% -0.1%
13:15
USD Capacity Utilization (APR)
Low
78.3% 78.5%
14:00
USD NAHB Housing Market Index (MAY)
Low
43 42
14:30
USD DOE Cushing OK Crude Inventory (MAY 10)
Low
-652K
14:30
USD DOE U.S. Crude Oil Inventories (MAY 10)
Low
230K
14:30
USD DOE U.S. Distillate Inventory (MAY 10)
Low
1812K
14:30
USD DOE U.S. Gasoline Inventories (MAY 10)
Low
-910K
22:30
NZD Business NZ Performance of Manufacturing Index (APR)
Medium
53.4
23:50
JPY Gross Domestic Product Annualized (1Q P)
High
2.7% 0.2%
23:50
JPY Gross Domestic Product (QoQ) (1Q P)
High
0.7% 0.0%
23:50
JPY Nominal Gross Domestic Product (QoQ) (1Q P)
High
0.5% -0.3%
23:50
JPY Foreign Buying Japan Bonds (Yen) (MAY 10)
Low
¥267.0B
23:50
JPY Foreign Buying Japan Stocks (Yen) (MAY 10)
Low
-¥26.2B
23:50
JPY Gross Domestic Product Deflator (YoY) (1Q P)
Low
-0.9% -0.7%
23:50
JPY Japan Buying Foreign Bonds (Yen) (MAY 10)
Low
¥309.9B
23:50
JPY Japan Buying Foreign Stocks (Yen) (MAY 10)
Low
¥28.0B
Thu
May 16 01:30
AUD RBA FX Transactions "Other" (APR)
Low
71M
01:30
AUD RBA Foreign Exchange Transaction (Australian dollar) (APR)
Low
577M
03:30
AUD RBA FX Transactions "Government" (APR)
Low
04:00
JPY Tokyo Condominium Sales (YoY) (APR)
Low
48.4%
04:30
JPY Industrial Production (YoY) (MAR F)
Medium
-7.3%
04:30
JPY Capacity Utilization (MoM) (MAR F)
Low
0.7%
04:30
JPY Industrial Production (MoM) (MAR F)
Low
0.2%
07:45
USD Fed's Plosser Speaks on Monetary Policy in Milan
Low
09:00
EUR Euro-Zone Consumer Price Index - Core (YoY) (APR F)
High
1.0% 1.0%
09:00
EUR Euro-Zone Consumer Price Index (YoY) (APR F)
High
1.2% 1.2%
09:00
EUR Euro-Zone Consumer Price Index (MoM) (APR)
Medium
-0.1% 1.2%
09:00
EUR Euro-Zone Trade Balance (euros) (MAR)
Low
10.4B
09:00
EUR Euro-Zone Trade Balance s.a. (euros) (MAR)
Low
12.0B 12.0B
11:45
USD Fed's Rosengren Speaks in Milan
Low
12:30
USD Consumer Price Index Ex Food & Energy (YoY) (APR)
High
1.8% 1.9%
12:30
USD Consumer Price Index (YoY) (APR)
High
1.3% 1.5%
12:30
USD Building Permits (MoM) (APR)
Medium
3.6% -3.9%
12:30
USD Consumer Price Index Ex Food & Energy (MoM) (APR)
Medium
0.2% 0.1%
12:30
USD Consumer Price Index (MoM) (APR)
Medium
-0.3% -0.2%
12:30
USD Housing Starts (MoM) (APR)
Medium
-5.4% 7.0%
12:30
USD Initial Jobless Claims (MAY 11)
Medium
330K 323K
12:30
CAD International Securities Transactions (Canadian dollar) (MAR)
Low
-6.31B
12:30
USD Building Permits (APR)
Low
940K 902K
12:30
USD Consumer Price Index Core Index s.a. (APR)
Low
232.758
12:30
USD Consumer Price Index n.s.a. (APR)
Low
232.7 232.773
12:30
USD Continuing Claims (MAY 4)
Low
3003K 3005K
12:30
USD Housing Starts (APR)
Low
980K 1036K
13:00
USD Fed's Fisher Speaks at NABE Industry Conference in Houston
Low
14:00
USD Philadelphia Fed. (MAY)
Medium
2.3 1.3
14:30
USD EIA Natural Gas Storage Change (MAY 10)
Low
88
19:05
USD Fed's Williams Speaks on Monetary Policy in Oregon
Low
22:00
NZD ANZ Job Advertisements (MoM) (APR)
Low
0.7%
22:45
NZD Producer Prices- Inputs (QoQ) (1Q)
Low
0.2% -0.3%
22:45
NZD Producer Prices- Outputs (QoQ) (1Q)
Low
0.0% -0.1%
23:50
JPY Machine Orders (YoY) (MAR)
Medium
-4.9% -11.3%
23:50
JPY Housing Loans (YoY) (1Q)
Low
3.1%
23:50
JPY Machine Orders (MoM) (MAR)
Low
3.3% 7.5%
Fri
May 17
USD Revisions: Housing Starts
Low
01:00
NZD ANZ Consumer Confidence Index (MAY)
Low
119.2
01:00
NZD ANZ Consumer Confidence (MoM) (MAY)
Low
3.8%
01:30
CNY China April Property Prices
Medium
02:00
CNY Conference Board China April Leading Economic Index
Low
06:00
EUR EU 25 New Car Registrations (APR)
Low
-10.2%
09:00
EUR Euro-Zone Construction Output s.a. (MoM) (MAR)
Low
-0.8%
09:00
EUR Euro-Zone Construction Output w.d.a. (YoY) (MAR)
Low
0.8%
12:30
CAD Bank Canada Consumer Price Index Core (YoY) (APR)
High
1.2% 1.4%
12:30
CAD Consumer Price Index (YoY) (APR)
High
0.9% 1.0%
12:30
CAD Bank Canada Consumer Price Index Core (MoM) (APR)
Medium
0.2% 0.2%
12:30
CAD Consumer Price Index (MoM) (APR)
Medium
0.2% 0.2%
12:30
CAD Consumer Price Index (APR)
Low
122.9
12:30
CAD Consumer Price Index s.a. (MoM) (APR)
Low
0.1%
12:30
CAD Core CPI s.a. (MoM) (APR)
Low
0.2%
12:30
CAD Wholesale Sales (MoM) (MAR)
Low
0.4% 0.0%
13:55
USD U. of Michigan Confidence (MAY P)
Medium
77.6 76.4
14:00
USD Leading Indicators (APR)
Medium
0.2% -0.1%
14:00
USD Revisions to Factory Orders Report
Low
17:45
USD Fed's Kocherlakota, Riksbank's Ingves Speak in Chicago
Low
Sat
May 18 15:00
USD Fed's Bernanke Delivers Commencement Speech at Bard College
Low
Disclaimer
The information and views in this report, our website & all the service we provide are believed to be reliable, but we do not accept any responsibility (or liability) for errors of fact or opinion. Users have the right to choose the product/s that suits them the most.
Sincere efforts have been made to present the right investment perspective. The information contained herein is based on analysis and up on sources that we consider reliable.
This material is for personal information and based upon it & takes no responsibility
The information given herein should be treated as only factor, while making investment decision. The report does not provide individually tailor-made investment advice. Epic research recommends that investors independently evaluate particular investments and strategies, and encourages investors to seek the advice of a financial adviser. Epic research shall not be responsible for any transaction conducted based on the information given in this report, which is in violation of rules and regulations of NSE and BSE.
The share price projections shown are not necessarily indicative of future price performance. The information herein, together with all estimates and forecasts, can change without notice. Analyst or any person related to epic research might be holding positions in the stocks recommended. It is understood that anyone who is browsing through the site has done so at his free will and does not read any views expressed as a recommendation for which either the site or its owners or anyone can be held responsible for . Any surfing and reading of the information is the acceptance of this disclaimer.
All Rights Reserved.
Investment in equity & bullion market has its own risks.
We, however, do not vouch for the accuracy or the completeness thereof. we are not responsible for any loss incurred whatsoever for any financial profits or loss which may arise from the recommendations above epic research does not purport to be an invitation or an offer to buy or sell any financial instrument. Our Clients (Paid Or Unpaid), Any third party or anyone else have no rights to forward or share our calls or SMS or Report or Any Information Provided by us to/with anyone which is received directly or indirectly by them. If found so then Serious Legal Actions can be taken.
www.epicresearch.co + 91 7316642300