DAILY I FOREX REPORT 8

TH

APRIL 2013

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Dollar Looks For Follow Through On S&P 500 Drop, Fed’s QE3 Shift

Fan Of GE And Other Blue Chips? Don’t Get Blindsided By Currency Risk.

Trading Yen Crosses From Here; Wait For Downside ’Surprises’

Forex Trading Weekly Forecast 04.08.2013

Dollar Overbought but Weak Yen, QE3 Tapering May Keep it That Way

The dollar’s performance this past week was something of a mixed bag given the heavy fundamental crosswinds from other central bank decisions.

Euro Tone Changes as ECB Flexes Muscles Once Again

The Euro finished the week strong, posting a massive gain of +4.70% against the Japanese Yen, while adding a less but still commendable +1.32% against the US Dollar.

Japanese Yen Meltdown Sets us Up for Good Trades Ahead

What a week for the Japanese Yen. The JPY traded to fresh monthly highs ahead of the heavily-anticipated Bank of Japan rate decision, but a shocking BOJ result forced the USDJPY to its biggest two-day surge since the heights of the financial crisis in 2008.

British Pound Breaks Out- BoE Policy Fosters Bullish Outlook

The British Pound broke out of the range carried over from the previous week, with the GBPUSD climbing to a fresh monthly high of 1.5362, and the sterling may continue to retrace the sharp decline from earlier this year as the Bank of England (BoE) maintains a neutral stance for monetary policy.

Gold Saved by Dismal NFPs- Opening Range Threaten March Highs

Gold is softer at the close of trade this week with the precious metal off by nearly

1.5% to trade at $1573 in New York on Friday. Price action this week saw a surge

in volatility with bullion testing the critical support range between $1550- $1555

noted last week.

Australian Dollar Aims Higher as Data Dents Rate Cut Outlook

Australian Dollar volatility was relatively subdued last week compared to the other major currencies but a

TRADING TIPS

BUY EURUSD ABOVE

1.3040 tgs

1.3060/1.3080sl 1.3010

BUY USDJPY ABOVE

97.85 tgt 98.05/98.25

SL 97.55

BUY GBPUSD ABOVE

1.5365 Tgt

1.5385/1.5405 SL

1.5335

HEADLINES

HOURLY EURUSD CHART

ANALYSIS

OPEN: 1.2926

HIGH: 1.3040

LOW: 1.2900

CLOSE: 1.2991

EURUSD LOOKS UPWARD

TREND : BULLISH

STRATEGY: BUY ON DIPS

MACD =>-.0005(BULLISH SIGNAL)

RSI => 41(BULLISH SIGNAL)

HOURLY EURUSD CHART

HOURLY USDJPY CHART

ANALYSIS

OPEN: 96.42

HIGH: 97.83

LOW: 95.72

CLOSE: 97.52

USDJPY LOOKS UPWARD

TREND: BULLISH

STRATEGY: BUY ON DIPS

MACD => -0.07( BULLIISH SIGNAL)

RSI =>68(BULLISH SIGNAL)

HOURLY USDJPY CHART

HOURLY GBPUSD CHART

ANALYSIS

OPEN: 1.5224

HIGH: 1.5363

LOW: 1.5199

CLOSE: 1.5335

GBPUSD LOOKS UPWARD

TREND: BULLISH

STRATEGY: BUY ON DIPS

MACD => .002( BULLISH SIGNAL)

RSI => 70(BULLISH SIGNAL)

HOURLY GBPUSD CHART

HOURLY EURGBP CHART

ANALYSIS

OPEN: 0.8490

HIGH: 0.8515

LOW: 0.8469

CLOSE: 0.8470

EURGBP LOOKS DOWNWARDS

TREND: BEARISH

STRATEGY: SELL ON RISE

MACD =>-.003(BEARISH SIGNAL)

RSI =>41(BEARISH SIGNAL)

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HOURLY EURGBP CHART

HOURLY USDINDEX CHART

ANALYSIS

OPEN: 82.7570

HIGH: 82.8930

LOW: 82.2730

CLOSE: 82.4960

USDINDEX LOOKS DOWNWARD

TREND: BEARISH

STRATEGY: SELL ON RISE

MACD =>0.22(BEARISH SIGNAL)

RSI =>39(BEARISH SIGNAL)

Date Time Currency Event Importance Actual Forecast Previous Notes

Sun

Mar 31 23:50

JPY Tankan Large Manufacturers Outlook (1Q)

High -1 1 -10

23:50

JPY Tankan Non-Manufacturing Outlook (1Q)

High 9 11 3

23:50

JPY Tankan Large All Industry Capex (1Q)

Medium -2.0% 5.0% 6.8%

23:50

JPY Tankan Large Manufacturers Index (1Q)

Medium -8 -7 -12

23:50

JPY Tankan Non-Manufacturing Index (1Q)

Medium 6 8 4

23:50

JPY Loans & Discounts Corp (YoY) (FEB)

Low 1.42%

1.34%

Mon Apr 1

01:00

CNY Manufacturing PMI (MAR)

High 50.9 51.2 50.1

01:45

CNY HSBC Manufacturing PMI (MAR)

Medium 51.6 51.6 50.4

04:39

CNY Leading Index (FEB)

Low 100.23

100.50

05:00

JPY Vehicle Sales (YoY) (MAR)

Low -15.6%

-12.2%

12:58

USD Markit US PMI Final (MAR)

Low 54.6 55.0 54.9

14:00

USD ISM Manufacturing (MAR)

High 51.3 54.0 54.2

14:00

USD Construction Spending (MoM) (FEB)

Medium 1.2% 1.0% -2.1%

14:00

USD ISM Prices Paid (MAR)

Medium 54.5 60.0 61.5

22:30

AUD AiG Performance of Manufacturing Index (MAR)

Medium 44.4

45.6

23:00

AUD RPData-Rismark House PX Actual (MAR)

Low 1.3%

0.3%

23:01

GBP Lloyds Business Barometer (MAR)

Low 20

13

23:50

JPY Monetary Base (YoY) (MAR)

Low 19.8%

15.0%

ECONOMIC CALENDER

Tue

Apr 2 00:00

NZD ANZ Commodity Price (MAR)

Low 7.4%

1.1%

01:30

JPY Labor Cash Earnings (YoY) (FEB)

Medium -0.7% -0.2% 0.1%

03:30

AUD Reserve Bank of Australia Rate Decision (APR 2)

High 3.00% 3.00% 3.00%

05:30

AUD RBA Commodity Index SDR (YoY) (MAR)

Low -7.5%

-6.5%

05:30

AUD RBA Commodity Price Index (MAR)

Low 87.9

87.9

07:30

CHF SVME-Purchasing Managers Index (MAR)

Medium 48.3 50.4 50.8

07:45

EUR Italian Purchasing Manager Index Manufacturing (MAR)

Low 44.5 45.3 45.8

07:50

EUR French Purchasing Manager Index Manufacturing (MAR F)

Low 44.0 43.9 43.9

07:55

EUR German Purchasing Manager Index Manufacturing (MAR F)

Medium 49.0 48.9 48.9

08:00

EUR Euro-Zone Purchasing Manager Index Manufacturing (MAR F)

Medium 46.8 46.6 46.6

08:00

EUR Italian Unemployment Rate s.a. (FEB P)

Medium 11.6% 11.8% 11.7%

08:30

GBP Mortgage Approvals (FEB)

Medium 51.7K 53.7K 54.2K

08:30

GBP Net Consumer Credit (FEB)

Medium 0.6B 0.4B 0.5B

08:30

GBP Net Lending Sec. on Dwellings (FEB)

Medium 0.9B 0.4B 0.3B

08:30

GBP Purchasing Manager Index Manufacturing (MAR)

Medium 48.3 48.7 47.9

08:30

GBP M4 Ex IOFCs 3M Annualised (FEB)

Low 3.1% 5.0% 5.8%

08:30

GBP M4 Money Supply (MoM) (FEB)

Low -0.5%

0.9%

08:30

GBP M4 Money Supply (YoY) (FEB)

Low 0.5%

-0.8%

09:00

EUR Euro-Zone Unemployment Rate (FEB)

Medium 12.0% 12.0% 12.0%

10:00

EUR ECB's Kranjec Presents Slovenia Economy Outlook, Banks

Low

12:00

EUR German Consumer Price Index - EU Harmonised (YoY)

High

1.7% 1.8%

(MAR P)

12:00

EUR German Consumer Price Index (YoY) (MAR P)

High

1.3% 1.5%

12:00

EUR German Consumer Price Index - EU Harmonised (MoM) (MAR P)

Medium

0.3% 0.8%

12:00

EUR German Consumer Price Index (MoM) (MAR P)

Medium

0.4% 0.6%

13:45

USD ISM New York (MAR)

Low

58.8

14:00

USD Factory Orders (FEB)

Medium

2.9% -2.0%

14:00

USD IBD/TIPP Economic Optimism (APR) (APR)

Low

45.5 42.2

15:20

EUR ECB's Coeure Speaks in Washington DC

Low

17:00

USD Fed's Kocherlakota Speaks on Monetary Policy in North Dakota

Low

17:30

USD Fed's Lockhart Speaks in Alabama

Low

21:00

USD Domestic Vehicle Sales (MAR)

Low

12.04M 11.99M

21:00

USD Total Vehicle Sales (MAR)

Low

15.30M 15.33M

23:01

GBP BRC Shop Price Index (YoY) (MAR)

Low

1.10%

23:30

USD Fed's Evans, Lacker Speak on Monetary Policy in Richmond

Low

Wed

Apr 3 00:00

AUD HIA New Home Sales (MoM) (FEB)

Medium

4.2%

GBP Halifax House Price (3MoY) (MAR)

Low

1.1% 1.9%

GBP Halifax Plc House Prices s.a. (MoM) (MAR)

Low

0.2% 0.5%

00:30

AUD Trade Balance (Australian dollar) (FEB)

Medium

-1000M -1057M

01:00

CNY Non-manufacturing PMI (MAR)

Medium

54.5

01:45

CNY HSBC Services PMI (MAR)

Medium

52.1

08:30

GBP Purchasing Manager Index Construction (MAR)

Medium

48.0 46.8

09:00

EUR Euro-Zone Consumer Price Index Estimate (YoY) (MAR)

Medium

1.6% 1.8%

11:00

USD MBA Mortgage Applications (MAR 29)

Low

7.7%

12:15

USD ADP Employment Change (MAR)

Medium

200K 198K

14:00

USD ISM Non-Manufacutring Composite (MAR)

Medium

55.6 56

14:30

USD DOE Cushing OK Crude Inventory (MAR 29)

Low

439K

14:30

USD DOE U.S. Crude Oil Inventories (MAR 29)

Low

2250K 3256K

14:30

USD DOE U.S. Distillate Inventory (MAR 29)

Low

-750K -4513K

14:30

USD DOE U.S. Gasoline Inventories (MAR 29)

Low

-1000K -1596K

19:30

USD Fed's Williams Speaks on Monetary Policy in Los Angeles

Low

21:00

USD Fed's Bullard to Introduce Lecture in St. Louis

Low

22:30

AUD AiG Performance of Service Index (MAR)

Medium

48.5

23:50

JPY Foreign Buying Japan Bonds (Yen) (MAR 29)

Low

-¥975.2B

23:50

JPY Foreign Buying Japan Stocks (Yen) (MAR 29)

Low

-¥267.6B

23:50

JPY Japan Buying Foreign Bonds (Yen) (MAR 29)

Low

-¥490.5B

23:50

JPY Japan Buying Foreign Stocks (Yen) (MAR 29)

Low

-¥640.2B

Thu

Apr 4

JPY Bank of Japan Rate Decision (APR 4)

High

0.10% 0.10%

00:30

AUD Building Approvals (YoY) (FEB)

Medium

14.3% 9.9%

00:30

AUD Retail Sales s.a. (MoM) (FEB)

Medium

0.3% 0.9%

00:30

AUD Building Approvals (MoM) (FEB)

Low

2.5% -2.4%

07:45

EUR Italian Purchasing Manager Index Services (MAR)

Low

43.5 43.6

07:50

EUR French Purchasing Manager Index Services (MAR F)

Low

41.9 41.9

07:55

EUR German Purchasing Manager Index Services (MAR F)

Medium

51.6 51.6

08:00

EUR Euro-Zone Purchasing Manager Index Composite (MAR F)

Medium

46.5 46.5

08:00

EUR Euro-Zone Purchasing Manager Index Services (MAR F)

Medium

46.5 46.5

08:30

GBP Purchasing Manager Index Services (MAR)

Medium

51.5 51.8

08:30

GBP Official Reserves (Changes) (MAR)

Low

-$1333M

09:00

EUR Euro-Zone Producer Price Index (YoY) (FEB)

Medium

1.4% 1.9%

09:00

EUR Euro-Zone Producer Price Index (MoM) (FEB)

Low

0.2% 0.6%

11:00

GBP BOE Asset Purchase Target (APR)

High

375B 375B

11:00

GBP Bank of England Rate Decision (APR 4)

High

0.50% 0.50%

11:30

USD Challenger Job Cuts (YoY) (MAR)

Low

7.0%

11:30

USD RBC Consumer Outlook Index (APR)

Low

47.1

11:45

EUR European Central Bank Rate Decision (APR 4)

High

0.75% 0.75%

11:45

EUR ECB Deposit Facility Rate (APR 4)

Medium

0.00% 0.00%

12:30

USD Initial Jobless Claims (MAR 30)

Medium

353K 357K

12:30

USD Continuing Claims (MAR 23)

Low

3065K 3050K

12:45

USD Fed's Evans, Lockhart Speak on Monetary Policy in Ohio

Low

14:30

USD EIA Natural Gas Storage Change (MAR 29)

Low

-95

16:30

USD Fed's George Speaks on Economy in Oklahoma

Low

21:00

USD Fed's Yellen Speaks in Washington

Low

23:50

JPY Official Reserve Assets (MAR)

Low

$1258.8B

Fri

Apr 5

GBP New Car Registrations (YoY) (MAR)

Low

7.9%

05:00

JPY Bank of Japan's Monthly Economic Report for April (Table)

Medium

05:00

JPY Leading Index (FEB P)

Medium

97.3 95

05:00

JPY Coincident Index (FEB P)

Low

91.9 91.6

07:00

CHF Foreign Currency Reserves (MAR)

Low

427.0B 430.0B

08:00

EUR Italian Deficit to GDP (YTD) (4Q)

Medium

3.7%

09:00

EUR Euro-Zone Retail Sales (YoY) (FEB)

High

-1.2% -1.3%

09:00

EUR Euro-Zone Retail Sales (MoM) (FEB)

Medium

-0.4% 1.2%

10:00

EUR German Factory Orders n.s.a. (YoY) (FEB)

Medium

-1.5% -2.5%

10:00

EUR German Factory Orders s.a. (MoM) (FEB)

Low

1.1% -2.5%

12:30

CAD Net Change in Employment (MAR)

High

5.0K 50.7K

12:30

CAD Unemployment Rate (MAR)

High

7.0% 7.0%

12:30

USD Change in Non-farm Payrolls (MAR)

High

199K 236K

12:30

USD Unemployment Rate (MAR)

High

7.7% 7.7%

12:30

CAD Full Time Employment Change (MAR)

Medium

33.6

12:30

USD Average Hourly Earnings All Employees (MoM) (MAR)

Medium

0.2% 0.2%

12:30

USD Average Hourly Earnings All Employees (YoY) (MAR)

Medium

2.0% 2.1%

12:30

USD Change in Household Employment (MAR)

Medium

170

12:30

USD Change in Private Payrolls (MAR)

Medium

203K 246K

12:30

USD Trade Balance (FEB)

Medium

-$44.6B -$44.4B

12:30

USD Two-Month Payroll Net Revision (MAR)

Medium

-15K

12:30

USD Underemployment Rate (U6) (MAR)

Medium

14.3%

12:30

CAD International Merchandise Trade (Canadian dollar) (FEB)

Low

0.10B -0.24B

12:30

CAD Part Time Employment Change (MAR)

Low

17.2

12:30

CAD Participation Rate (MAR)

Low

66.7 66.7

12:30

USD Average Weekly Hours All Employees (MAR)

Low

34.5 34.5

12:30

USD Change in Manufacturing Payrolls (MAR)

Low

10K 14K

14:00

CAD Ivey Purchasing Managers Index s.a (MAR)

Medium

52.2 51.1

19:00

USD Consumer Credit (FEB)

Medium

$15.000B $16.151B

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