daily i-forex-report-1 by epic research 10.05.13
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US Dollar Adrift As S&P 500 Rally Continues To Power Ahead
AUD/USD Reverses After Jobs Data, GBP/USD Readies For BoE
ECB Cuts its Euro-Zone Growth Forecast, Attributes Rate Cut to Inflation
British Pound Short Trade Held into BOE Rate Decision
The monetary policy announcement from the Bank of England headlines the economic calendar in European trading hours. Mervyn King and company are forecast to the size of the asset-purchase program unchanged at 375 billion. UK economic news-flow has cautiously improved relative to economists’ expectations since April’s sit-down of the rate-setting MPC committee. Furthermore the Bank extended its Funding for Lending (FLS) scheme late last month, limiting the scope for further action in the near term. A status-quo result seems firmly entrenched in investors’ baseline outlook however, meaning such an outcome unlikely to yield a dramatic response from the British Pound. With that in mind, we remain short GBPUSD.
TRADING TIPS
BUY EURUSD ABOVE
1.3155 tgs 1.3175/1.3195
sl 1.3125
BUY USDJPY ABOVE 98.70
tgt 98.90/99.10 SL 98.40
SELL GBPUSD BELOW
1.5560 Tgt 1.5540/1.5520
SL 1.5590
HEADLINES
HOURLY EURUSD CHART
HOURLY EURUSD CHART
ANALYSIS
OPEN: 1.3144 EURUSD LOOKS UPWARD
HIGH: 1.3157 TREND: BULLISH
LOW: 1.3141 STRATEGY: BUY ON DIPS
CLOSE: 1.3153 MACD =>.0004(BULLISH SIGNAL)
RSI => 52(BULLISH SIGNAL)
HOURLY USDJPY CHART
ANALYSIS
OPEN: 98.69 USDJPY LOOKS UPWARDS
HIGH: 98.69 TREND: BULLISH
LOW: 98.66 STRATEGY: BUY ON DIPS
CLOSE: 98.68 MACD =>.01(BULLISH SIGNAL)
RSI => 45(BULLISH SIGNAL)
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HOURLY GBPUSD CHART
ANALYSIS
OPEN: 1.5567 GBPUSD LOOKS DOWNWARD
HIGH: 1.5568 TREND: BEARISH
LOW: 1.5564 STRATEGY: SELL ON RISE
CLOSE: 1.5568 MACD =>.0001(BEARISH SIGNAL)
RSI => 38(BEARISH SIGNAL)
HOURLY EURGBP CHART
ANALYSIS
OPEN: 00.8443 EURGBP LOOKS UPWARDS
HIGH: 00.8445 TREND: BULLISH
LOW: 00.8442 STRATEGY: BUY ON DIPS
CLOSE: 00.8443 MACD =>.0004(BULLISH SIGNAL)
RSI => 32(BULLISH SIGNAL)
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HOURLY USD INDEX CHART
ANALYSIS
OPEN: 81.8760 USDINDEX LOOKS UPWARDS
HIGH: 81.9590 TREND: BULLISH
LOW: 81.8610 STRATEGY: BUY ON DIPS
CLOSE: 81.9050 MACD =>.0643(BULLISH SIGNAL)
RSI => 42(BULLISH SIGNAL)
ECONOMIC CALLENDER
Date Time Currency Event Importance Actual Forecast Previous Notes
Sun May 5
13:30
USD Fed's Pianalto Gives Commencement Speech in Ohio
Low
Mon
May 6 00:23
CNY Leading Index (MAR)
Medium 99.38
99.98
00:30
AUD TD Securities Inflation (YoY) (APR)
Medium 2.1%
2.1%
00:30
AUD TD Securities Inflation (MoM) (APR)
Low 0.3%
0.2%
01:30
AUD Retail Sales Ex Inflation(QoQ) (1Q)
Medium 2.2% 1.7% 0.1%
01:30
AUD Retail Sales s.a. (MoM) (MAR)
Medium -0.4% 0.1% 1.3%
01:30
AUD ANZ Job Advertisements (MoM) (APR)
Low -1.3%
-0.4%
01:45
CNY HSBC Services PMI (APR)
Medium 51.1
54.3
07:45
EUR Italian Purchasing Manager Index Services (APR)
Low 47.0 45.9 45.5
07:50
EUR French Purchasing Manager Index Services (APR F)
Low 44.3 44.1 44.1
07:55
EUR German Purchasing Manager Index Services (APR F)
Medium 49.6 49.2 49.2
08:00
EUR Euro-Zone Purchasing Manager Index Composite (APR F)
Medium 46.9 46.6 46.5
08:00
EUR Euro-Zone Purchasing Manager Index Services (APR F)
Medium 47.0 46.6 46.6
08:30
EUR Euro-Zone Sentix Investor Confidence (MAY)
Medium -15.6 -15.2 -17.3
09:00
EUR Euro-Zone Retail Sales (YoY) (MAR)
Medium -2.4% -2.2% -1.7%
09:00
EUR Euro-Zone Retail Sales (MoM) (MAR)
Low -0.1% -0.1% -0.2%
09:00
EUR German FinMin Schaeuble Speaks on European Integration
Low
12:30
CAD Building Permits (MoM) (MAR)
Medium
1.0% 1.7%
14:00
CAD Ivey Purchasing Managers Index s.a. (APR)
Medium
58.0 61.6
22:45
NZD Average Hourly Earnings (QoQ) (1Q)
Medium
1.0% -0.4%
22:45
NZD Labor Cost Private Sector (QoQ) (1Q)
Low
0.5% 0.6%
22:45
NZD Private Wages ex Overtime (QoQ) (1Q)
Low
0.5% 0.5%
23:01
GBP BRC Shop Price Index (YoY) (APR)
Low
1.4%
23:01
GBP Lloyds Employment Confidence (APR)
Low
-45
23:30
AUD AiG Performance of Construction Index (APR)
Medium
39
Tue
May 7 01:30
AUD House Price Index (QoQ) (1Q)
Medium
1.8% 1.6%
01:30
AUD House Price Index (YoY) (1Q)
Medium
4.0% 2.1%
01:30
AUD Trade Balance (Australian dollar) (MAR)
Medium
0M -178M
04:30
LIVE
AUD Reserve Bank of Australia Rate Decision (MAY 7)
High
3.00% 3.00%
05:45
CHF SECO Consumer Confidence (APR)
Medium
-2 -6
05:45
CHF Unemployment Rate (APR)
Medium
3.1% 3.2%
05:45
CHF Unemployment Rate s.a. (APR)
Medium
3.1% 3.1%
06:30
AUD Foreign Reserves (Australian dollar) (APR)
Low
A$48.7B
07:00
CHF Foreign Currency Reserves (APR)
Low
435.0B 438.3B
10:00
EUR German Factory Orders n.s.a. (YoY) (MAR)
Medium
-2.9% 0.0%
10:00
EUR German Factory Orders s.a. (MoM) (MAR)
Low
-0.5% 2.3%
14:00
USD IBD/TIPP Economic Optimism (MAY)
Low
47.3 46.2
14:00
USD JOLTs Job Openings (MAR)
Low
3925
19:00
USD Consumer Credit (MAR)
Medium
$16.000B $18.139B
23:01
GBP BRC Sales Like-For-Like (YoY) (APR)
Low
1.9% 1.9%
Wed May 8
04:00
CNY Trade Balance (USD) (APR)
Medium
$15.50B -$0.88B
04:00
CNY Exports (YoY) (APR)
Low
10.0% 10.0%
04:00
CNY Imports (YoY) (APR)
Low
13.0% 14.1%
04:00
GBP Halifax House Price (3MoY) (APR)
Low
1.6% 1.1%
04:00
GBP Halifax Plc House Prices s.a. (MoM) (APR)
Low
0.2% 0.2%
04:00
GBP New Car Registrations (YoY) (APR)
Low
5.9%
07:15
CHF CPI - EU Harmonised (YoY) (APR)
Medium
-0.3%
07:15
CHF Consumer Price Index (YoY) (APR)
Medium
-0.5% -0.6%
07:15
CHF CPI - EU Harmonised (MoM) (APR)
Low
0.5%
07:15
CHF Consumer Price Index (MoM) (APR)
Low
0.1% 0.2%
10:00
EUR German Industrial Production n.s.a. and w.d.a. (YoY) (MAR)
Medium
-3.8% -1.8%
10:00
EUR German Industrial Production s.a. (MoM) (MAR)
Low
-0.1% 0.5%
11:00
USD MBA Mortgage Applications (MAY 3)
Low
1.8%
12:15
CAD Housing Starts (APR)
Medium
175.0K 184.0K
12:30
USD Fed's Stein Speaks at Chicago Fed Conference
Low
14:30
USD DOE Cushing OK Crude Inventory (MAY 3)
Low
-1382K
14:30
USD DOE U.S. Crude Oil Inventories (MAY 3)
Low
6696K
14:30
USD DOE U.S. Distillate Inventory (MAY 3)
Low
474K
14:30
USD DOE U.S. Gasoline Inventories (MAY 3)
Low
-1818K
22:45
NZD Unemployment Rate (1Q)
High
6.8% 6.9%
22:45
NZD Employment Change (QoQ) (1Q)
Medium
1.0% -1.0%
22:45
NZD Employment Change (YoY) (1Q)
Medium
-0.7% -1.4%
22:45
NZD Participation Rate (QoQ) (1Q)
Low
67.9% 67.2%
23:50
JPY Official Reserve Assets (APR)
Low
$1254.4B
Thu
May 9 00:00
NZD QV House Prices (YoY) (APR)
Low
6.5%
01:30
LIVE
AUD Employment Change (APR)
High
11.0K -36.1K
01:30
LIVE
AUD Unemployment Rate (APR)
High
5.6% 5.6%
01:30
CNY Consumer Price Index (YoY) (APR)
High
2.3% 2.1%
01:30
AUD Full Time Employment Change (APR)
Medium
-7.4K
01:30
CNY Producer Price Index (YoY) (APR)
Medium
-2.3% -1.9%
01:30
AUD Part Time Employment Change (APR)
Low
-28.7K
01:30
AUD Participation Rate (APR)
Low
65.1% 65.1%
02:00
JPY Tokyo Avg Office Vacancies (APR)
Low
8.56%
05:00
JPY Leading Index (MAR P)
Medium
97.7 97.6
05:00
JPY Coincident Index (MAR P)
Low
93.2 92.4
08:00
EUR ECB Publishes Monthly Report
High
08:30
GBP Industrial Production (YoY) (MAR)
Medium
-1.6% -2.2%
08:30
GBP Manufacturing Production (YoY) (MAR)
Medium
-2.0% -1.4%
08:30
GBP Industrial Production (MoM) (MAR)
Low
0.2% 1.0%
08:30
GBP Manufacturing Production (MoM) (MAR)
Low
0.3% 0.8%
11:00
GBP BOE Asset Purchase Target (MAY)
High
375B 375B
11:00
GBP Bank of England Rate Decision (MAY 9)
High
0.50% 0.50%
12:00
USD Fed's Lacker Speaks on Financial Stability in New York
Low
12:30
CAD New Housing Price Index (YoY) (MAR)
Medium
2.1% 2.1%
12:30
USD Initial Jobless Claims (MAY 4)
Medium
335K 324K
12:30
CAD New Housing Price Index (MoM) (MAR)
Low
0.1% 0.2%
12:30
USD Continuing Claims (APR 27)
Low
3018K 3019K
14:00
GBP NIESR Gross Domestic Product Estimate (APR)
High
0.10%
14:00
USD Wholesale Inventories (MAR)
Medium
0.4% -0.3%
14:00
USD Wholesale Sales (MoM) (MAR)
Low
0.1% 1.7%
14:30
USD EIA Natural Gas Storage Change (MAY 3)
Low
43
17:15
USD Fed's Plosser Speaks on Monetary Policy in New York
Low
22:45
NZD NZ Card Spending - Retail (MoM) (APR)
Medium
0.5% -0.5%
22:45
NZD NZ Card Spending (MoM) (APR)
Medium
-1.2%
23:50
JPY Bank Lending incl Trusts (YoY) (APR)
Medium
23:50
JPY Trade Balance - BOP Basis (Yen) (MAR)
Medium
-¥274.0B -¥677.0B
23:50
JPY Adjusted Current Account Total (Yen) (MAR)
Low
¥480.4B -¥0.1B
23:50
JPY Bank Lending Banks ex-Trust (APR)
Low
1.9%
23:50
JPY Current Account Balance (YoY) (MAR)
Low
-5.7% -47.0%
23:50
JPY Current Account Total (Yen) (MAR)
Low
¥1216.3B ¥637.4B
23:50
JPY Foreign Buying Japan Bonds (Yen) (MAY 3)
Low
23:50
JPY Foreign Buying Japan Stocks (Yen) (MAY 3)
Low
23:50
JPY Japan Buying Foreign Bonds (Yen) (MAY 3)
Low
23:50
JPY Japan Buying Foreign Stocks (Yen) (MAY 3)
Low
Fri
May 10
GBP G7 Finance Ministers, Central Bank Chiefs, Meet in UK
High
04:00
CNY New Yuan Loans (APR)
High
767.5B 1060.0B
04:00
CNY Aggregate Financing (APR)
Low
1480.0B 2544.3B
04:00
CNY Money Supply - M0 (YoY) (APR)
Low
12.0% 12.4%
04:00
CNY Money Supply - M1 (YoY) (APR)
Low
11.3% 11.9%
04:00
CNY Money Supply - M2 (YoY) (APR)
Low
15.5% 15.7%
04:30
JPY Bankruptcies (YoY) (APR)
Medium
-20.0%
05:00
JPY Eco Watchers Survey: Outlook (APR)
Medium
57.5
05:00
JPY Eco Watchers Survey: Current (APR)
Low
57.3
06:00
EUR German Trade Balance (euros) (MAR)
Medium
17.5B 16.8B
06:00
EUR German Current Account (euros) (MAR)
Low
19.5B 16.0B
06:00
EUR German Exports s.a. (MoM) (MAR)
Low
0.5% -1.5%
06:00
EUR German Imports s.a. (MoM) (MAR)
Low
1.5% -3.9%
08:30
GBP Construction Output (YoY) (MAR)
Medium
-6.6% -7.0%
08:30
GBP Visible Trade Balance (Pounds) (MAR)
Medium
-£9000 -£9416
08:30
GBP Construction Output (MoM) (MAR)
Low
15.0% 5.5%
08:30
GBP Total Trade Balance (Pounds) (MAR)
Low
-£3100 -£3642
08:30
GBP Trade Balance Non EU (Pounds) (MAR)
Low
-£4000 -£4276
12:25
USD Fed's Evans Speaks at Chicago Fed Conference
Low
12:30
LIVE
CAD Net Change in Employment (APR)
High
15.0K -54.5K
12:30
LIVE
CAD Unemployment Rate (APR)
High
7.20% 7.20%
12:30
Full Time Employment Change (APR)
Medium
-54.0K
12:30
Part Time Employment Change (APR)
Low
-0.4K
12:30
Participation Rate (APR)
Low
66.7 66.6
13:30
Fed's Bernanke Speaks at Chicago Fed Conference
Medium
18:00
USD Monthly Budget Statement (APR)
Medium
$106.0B
18:00
Fed's George Speaks on the Economy in Wyoming
Low
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