daily i-forex-report-9-sep-2013
TRANSCRIPT
GBP/USD 1.5578
GBP/EUR 1.1819
EUR/USD 1.3173
GBPAUD 1.7348
GBP/CAD 1.6413
GBP/CHF 1.4580
GBP/CZK 30.365
GBP/DKK 8.814
GBP/HKD 12.076
GBP/INR 104.98
GBP/JPY 155.09
GBP/NOK 9.461
GBP/NZD 1.9920
GBP/PLN 5.0356
GBP/SEK 10.283
GBP/SGD 1.9852
GBP/THB 49.94
GBP/TRY 3.175
GBP/ZAR 16.009
GBP/CNY 9.603
Foreign Exchange Daily Market Update
As expected yesterday the Bank of England and the ECB both kept their base interest rates at the current level of 0.5%. There was also better than expected news from the US where the weekly jobless claims were released; the figure fell by more than expected, from 332K to 323K.
Today will be a very important day for data release in the US as the change in non farm payrolls will be out. The change of the amount of people in employment for the month of August is expected to rise from 162K to 180K which could have a bearish effect on the GBPUSD rate. From the UK later we have the release of the NIESR GDP estimate which is a highly respected figure, one that can influence monetary policy.
Forex Forecast: Volatility Threatens Market Stability Ahead of Fed Taper
US Dollar Risks Breakdown Before the Fed’s Taper Decision
Trading conditions are growing dangerous – not because a particular currency or asset classes is threatening an unfavorable turn; but rather because there are alluring technical setups that are likely to fall apart almost immediately after they trigger. That is particularly true for many of the dollar-based pairings.
Euro Forecast - Huge Event Risk Didn’t Break Euro so What Will?
A sharply disappointing US Nonfarm Payrolls report was supposed to be enough to send the US Dollar to fresh lows versus the Euro, but the EURUSD finished the week almost exactly where it began. What gives?
British Pound Forecast - GBPUSD Preserves Bullish Trend on BoE Policy with Key Resistance Ahead
The British Pound tracked higher during the first full week of September, with the GBPUSD climbing to a high of 1.5680, but the bullish trend may be coming to an end as the pair comes up against key
TRADING TIPS
BUY EURUSD ABOVE 1.3190 TGT
1.3210/1.3230 SL 1.3160
SELL USDJPY BELOW 98.80 TGT
98.60/98.30 SL 99.10
BUY GBPUSD ABOVE 1.5600 TGT
1.5620/1.5650 SL 1.5570
HEADLINES
HOURLY EURUSD CHART
HOURLY EURUSD CHART
ANALYSIS
EURUSD LOOKS UPWARD
TREND: BULLISH
STRATEGY: BUY ON DIPS
MACD =>.0003(BULLISH SIGNAL)
RSI => 60(BULLISH SIGNAL)
HOURLY USDJPY CHART
ANALYSIS
USDJPY LOOKS DOWNWARD
TREND: BEARISH
STRATEGY: SELL ON RISE
MACD =>.10(BEARISH SIGNAL)
RSI =>37(BEARISH SIGNAL)
HOURLY GBPUSD CHART
ANALYSIS
GBPUSD LOOKS UPWARD
TREND: BULLISH
STRATEGY: BUY ON DIPS
MACD =>.0004(BULLISH SIGNAL)
RSI =>54(BULLISH SIGNAL)
HOURLY EURGBP CHART
ANALYSIS
EURGBP LOOKS UPWARD
TREND: BULLISH
STRATEGY: BUY ON DIPS
MACD =>.0004(BULLISH SIGNAL)
RSI =>52(BULLISH SIGNAL)
HOURLY USD INDEX CHART
ANALYSIS
USD INDEX LOOKS DOWNWARD
TREND: BEARISH
STRATEGY: SELL ON RISE
MACD =>.0001(BEARISH SIGNAL)
RSI =>34(BEARISH SIGNAL)
Date Time Currency Event Importance Actual Forecast Previous Notes
Sun Sep 1
01:00
CNY Manufacturing PMI
Medium 51.0 50.6 50.3
22:45
NZD Terms of Trade Index (QoQ) (2Q)
Medium 4.9% 3.8% 4.2%
23:01
GBP Hometrack Housing Survey (MoM) (AUG)
Low 0.4%
0.3%
23:01
GBP Hometrack Housing Survey (YoY) (AUG)
Low 1.8%
1.3%
23:30
AUD AiG Performance of Manufacturing Index (AUG)
Medium 46.4
42.0
23:50
JPY Capital Spending (2Q)
Medium 0.0% -2.1% -3.9%
23:50
JPY Capital Spending excl Software (2Q)
Medium 1.4% -3.8% -5.2%
23:50
JPY Company Profits (2Q)
Low 24.0%
6.0%
23:50
JPY Company Sales (2Q)
Low -0.5%
-5.8%
Mon Sep 2
00:00
AUD RPData/Rismark House Px (AUG)
Low 0.5%
1.6%
00:30
AUD TD Securities Inflation (MoM) (AUG)
Low 0.1%
0.5%
00:30
AUD TD Securities Inflation (YoY) (AUG)
Low 2.1%
2.7%
01:30
AUD Building Approvals (MoM) (JUL)
Low 10.8% 4.0% -6.3%
01:30
AUD Building Approvals (YoY) (JUL)
Low 28.3% 20.0% -11.8%
01:30
AUD Company Operating Profit (QoQ) (2Q)
Low -0.8% 0.9% 3.5%
01:30
AUD Inventories (2Q) Low 0.2% 0.1% -0.5%
01:45
CNY HSBC/Markit Manufacturing PMI (AUG)
Medium 50.1 50.2 47.7
05:00
JPY Vehicle Sales (YoY) (AUG)
Low -6.4%
-13.5%
06:30
AUD RBA Commodity Index (AUG)
Low 94.3
91.8
06:30
AUD RBA Commodity Index SDR (YoY) (AUG)
Low -7.3%
9.7%
07:30
CHF PMI Manufacturing (AUG)
Low 54.6 56.0 57.4
07:45
EUR Italian Purchasing
Manager Index Manufacturing (AUG)
Low 51.3 50.8 50.4
ECONOMIC CALLENDER
07:50
EUR French Purchasing Manager Index Manufacturing (AUG F)
Low 49.7 49.7 49.7
07:55
EUR German Purchasing Manager Index Manufacturing (AUG F)
Medium 51.8 52.0 52.0
08:00
EUR Euro-Zone Purchasing Manager Index Manufacturing (AUG F)
Medium 51.4 51.3 51.3
08:30
GBP BoE Publishes Data on Funding for Lending
Medium
08:30
GBP Purchasing Manager Index Manufacturing (AUG)
Medium 57.2 55.0 54.8
09:00
EUR Schaeuble Briefs on Greek Aid Package 3
Medium
11:20
EUR ECB's Coeure Speaks in Berlin on OMT Proram
Low
11:30
GBP BoE Governor Mark Carney Press Briefing Before G20 Summit
Medium
23:01
GBP BRC Sales Like-For-Like (YoY) (AUG)
Low
2.4% 2.2%
23:50
JPY Monetary Base (YoY) (AUG)
Medium
38%
23:50
JPY Monetary Base End of period (AUG)
Low
¥173.3T
Tue Sep 3
GBP Halifax House Price (3MoY) (AUG)
Low
5.6% 4.6%
GBP Halifax Plc House Prices s.a. (MoM) (AUG)
Low
0.8% 0.9%
01:00
CNY Non-manufacturing PMI (AUG)
Medium
54.1
01:00
NZD ANZ Commodity Price (AUG)
Low
0.6%
01:30
AUD Current Account Balance (Australian Dollar) (2Q)
Medium
-8.5B -8.5B
01:30
AUD Retail Sales s.a. (MoM) (JUL)
Medium
0.4% 0.0%
01:30
AUD Net Exports of GDP (2Q)
Low
0.1 1
01:30
JPY Labor Cash Earnings (YoY) (JUL)
Low
0.6%
04:30 LIVE
AUD Reserve Bank of Australia Rate Decision (SEP 3)
High
2.5% 2.5%
05:45
CHF Gross Domestic Product (YoY) (2Q)
High
1.7% 1.2%
05:45
CHF Gross Domestic Product (QoQ) (2Q)
Medium
0.3% 0.6%
08:30
GBP Purchasing Manager Index Construction (AUG)
Medium
56.9 57.0
09:00
EUR Euro-Zone Producer Price Index (MoM) (JUL)
Low
0.1% 0.0%
09:00
EUR Euro-Zone Producer Price Index (YoY) (JUL)
Low
0.1% 0.3%
12:58
USD Markit US PMI Final (AUG)
Medium
54.0
14:00
USD ISM Manufacturing (AUG)
High
54 55.4
14:00
USD Construction Spending (MoM) (JUL)
Medium
0.3% -0.6%
14:00
USD ISM Prices Paid (AUG)
Medium
51.2 49
14:00
USD IBD/TIPP Economic Optimism (SEP)
Low
46 45.1
21:00
USD EIA Gasoline and Diesel Fuel Update (2Q)
Low
22:45
NZD Value of All Buildings s.a. (QoQ) (AUG)
Low
5.8%
23:01
GBP BRC Shop Price Index (YoY) (AUG)
Low
-0.5%
23:30
AUD AiG Performance of Service Index (AUG)
Medium
39.4
Wed
Sep 4 01:30 LIVE
AUD Gross Domestic Product (QoQ) (2Q)
High
0.6% 0.6%
01:30 LIVE
AUD Gross Domestic Product (YoY) (2Q)
High
2.5% 2.5%
01:45
CNY HSBC/Markit Services PMI (AUG)
Medium
51.3
07:45
EUR Italian Purchasing Manager Index Services (AUG)
Low
48.7
07:50
EUR French Purchasing Manager Index Services (AUG F)
Low
47.7 47.7
07:55
EUR German Purchasing Manager Index Services (AUG F)
Medium
52.4 52.4
08:00
EUR Euro-Zone Purchasing Manager Index Composite (AUG F)
Medium
51.7 51.7
08:00
EUR Euro-Zone Purchasing Manager Index Services (AUG F)
Medium
51 51
08:30
GBP Purchasing Manager Index Services (AUG)
Medium
59 60.2
08:30
GBP Official Reserves (Changes) (AUG)
Low
$1672M
09:00
EUR Euro-Zone Gross Domestic Product s.a. (QoQ) (2Q P)
High
0.3% 0.3%
09:00
EUR Euro-Zone Gross Domestic Product s.a. (YoY) (2Q P)
High
-0.7% -0.7%
09:00
EUR Euro-Zone Retail Sales (YoY) (JUL)
Medium
-0.3% -0.9%
09:00
EUR Euro-Zone Government Expenditure (QoQ) (2Q P)
Low
-0.1%
09:00
EUR Euro-Zone Gross Fixed Capital (QoQ) (2Q P)
Low
-1.6%
09:00
EUR Euro-Zone Household Consumption (QoQ) (2Q P)
Low
0.1%
09:00
EUR Euro-Zone Retail Sales (MoM) (JUL)
Low
0.4% -0.5%
11:00
USD MBA Mortgage Applications (AUG 30)
Low
-2.5%
11:30
USD Challenger Job Cuts (YoY) (AUG)
Low
2.3%
12:30
USD Trade Balance (JUL)
Medium
-$38.6B -$34.2B
12:30
CAD International Merchandise Trade (Canadian dollar) (JUL)
Low
-0.40B -0.47B
13:45
USD ISM New York (AUG)
Low
67.8
14:00
CAD Bank of Canada Rate Decision (SEP 4)
High
1.00% 1.00%
16:30
USD Fed's Williams Speaks on Monetary Policy in Oregon
Low
18:00
USD US Federal Reserve Releases Beige Book
High
21:00
USD Domestic Vehicle Sales (AUG)
Low
12.20M 12.09M
21:00
USD Total Vehicle Sales (AUG)
Low
15.80M 15.60M
Thu Sep 5
JPY BOJ 2014 Monetary Base Target (SEP 5)
High
¥270T
JPY Bank of Japan Rate Decision (SEP 5)
High
00:00
USD Fed's Kocherlakota Speaks in Wisconsin
Low
01:30
AUD Trade Balance (Australian dollar) (JUL)
Medium
100M 602M
10:00
EUR German Factory Orders n.s.a. (YoY) (JUL)
Medium
2.7% 4.3%
10:00
EUR German Factory Orders s.a. (MoM) (JUL)
Low
-1.0% 3.8%
11:00 LIVE
GBP Bank of England Rate Decision (SEP 5)
High
0.5% 0.5%
11:00 LIVE
GBP BoE Asset Purchase Target (SEP)
High
375B 375B
11:45 LIVE
EUR European Central Bank Rate Decision (SEP 5)
High
0.5% 0.5%
11:45 LIVE
EUR ECB Deposit Facility Rate (SEP 5)
Medium
0.0% 0.0%
12:15
USD ADP Employment Change (AUG)
Medium
180K 200K
12:30
USD Initial Jobless Claims (AUG 31)
Medium
330K 331K
12:30
USD Continuing Claims (AUG 24)
Low
2989K
12:30
USD Non-Farm Productivity (2Q F)
Low
1.5% 0.9%
12:30
USD Unit Labor Costs (2Q F)
Low
1.0% 1.4%
13:00
USD Fed's Kocherlakota Speaks in Wisconsin
Low
14:00
USD Factory Orders (JUL)
Medium
-3.50% 1.50%
14:00
USD ISM Non-Manufacutring Composite (AUG)
Medium
55 56
15:00
USD DOE U.S. Crude Oil Inventories (AUG 30)
Low
2986K
15:00
USD DOE U.S. Distillate Inventory (AUG 30)
Low
-316K
15:00
USD DOE U.S. Gasoline Inventories (AUG 30)
Low
-587K
23:30
AUD AiG Performance of Construction Index (AUG)
Medium
44.1
23:50
JPY Official Reserve Assets (AUG)
Low
$1254.0B
Fri
Sep 6
GBP New Car Registrations (YoY) (AUG)
Low
12.7%
05:00
JPY Bank of Japan's Monthly Economic Report for September
Medium
05:00
JPY Coincident Index (JUL P)
Medium
106.9 105.5
05:00
JPY Leading Index (JUL P)
Medium
107.9 107.2
06:00
EUR German Trade Balance (euros) (JUL)
Medium
16.3B 16.9B
06:00
EUR German Current Account (euros) (JUL)
Low
14.0B 17.3B
06:00
EUR German Exports s.a. (MoM) (JUL)
Low
0.8% 0.6%
06:00
EUR German Imports s.a. (MoM) (JUL)
Low
0.7% -0.8%
06:00
EUR German Labor Costs s.a. (QoQ) (2Q)
Low
1.1%
06:00
EUR German Labor Costs w.d.a. (YoY) (2Q)
Low
3.9%
06:30
AUD Foreign Reserves (Australian dollar) (AUG)
Low
A$55.5B
07:00
CHF Foreign Currency Reserves (AUG)
Low
434.9B
07:15
CHF CPI EU Harmonized (YoY) (AUG)
Medium
0.5%
07:15
CHF Consumer Price Index (YoY) (AUG)
Medium
0.0% 0.0%
07:15
CHF Industrial Production (YoY) (2Q)
Medium
3.0%
07:15
CHF CPI EU Harmonized (MoM) (AUG)
Low
0.0%
07:15
CHF Consumer Price Index (MoM) (AUG)
Low
0.0% -0.4%
08:30
GBP BoE/GfK Inflation Next 12 Mths (AUG)
Medium
3.6%
08:30
GBP Industrial Production (YoY) (JUL)
Medium
-1.7% 1.2%
08:30
GBP Manufacturing Production (YoY) (JUL)
Medium
-0.7% 2.0%
08:30
GBP Total Trade Balance (Pounds) (JUL)
Medium
-£1700 -£1548
08:30
GBP Industrial Production (MoM) (JUL)
Low
0.0% 1.1%
08:30
GBP Manufacturing Production (MoM) (JUL)
Low
0.3% 1.9%
08:30
GBP Trade Balance Non EU (Pounds) (JUL)
Low
-£2950 -£2646
08:30
GBP Visible Trade Balance (Pounds) (JUL)
Low
-£8200 -£8082
10:00
EUR German Industrial Production n.s.a. and w.d.a. (YoY) (JUL)
Medium
0.6% 2.0%
10:00
EUR German Industrial Production s.a. (MoM) (JUL)
Low
-0.5% 2.4%
12:00
USD Fed's Evans Speaks in South Carolina
Low
12:30
CAD Net Change in Employment (AUG)
High
30.0K -39.4K
12:30
CAD Unemployment Rate (AUG)
High
7.2% 7.2%
12:30 LIVE
USD Change in Non-farm Payrolls (AUG)
High
180K 162K
12:30 LIVE
USD Unemployment Rate (AUG)
High
7.4% 7.4%
12:30
CAD Full Time Employment Change (AUG)
Medium
-18.3
12:30
USD Average Hourly Earnings (YoY) (AUG)
Medium
2.0% 1.9%
12:30
USD Change in Private Payrolls (AUG)
Medium
175K 161K
12:30
USD Labor Force Participation Rate (AUG)
Medium
63.4%
12:30
USD Underemployment Rate (AUG)
Medium
14.0%
12:30
CAD Part Time Employment Change (AUG)
Low
-21.2
12:30
CAD Participation Rate (AUG)
Low
66.5
12:30
USD Average Hourly Earnings (MoM) (AUG)
Low
0.2% -0.1%
12:30
USD Average Weekly Hours All Employees (AUG)
Low
34.5 34.4
12:30
USD Change in Household Employment (AUG)
Low
227K
12:30
USD Change in Manufacturing Payrolls (AUG)
Low
5K 6K
12:30
USD Two-Month Payroll Net Revision (AUG)
Low
14:00
GBP NIESR Gross Domestic Product Estimate (AUG)
High
0.7%
14:00
CAD Ivey Purchasing Managers Index s.a. (AUG)
Medium
54 48.4
17:30
USD Fed's George Speaks on the Economy in Nebraska
Low
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