DAILY IFOREX REPORT

23rd

AUG 2013

Taper Talks And Change In ECB Expectations Send Bond Prices Lower

Global Growth Fears Quelled After Chinese, Euro-Zone PMIs; AUD on Top

ASIA/EUROPE FOREX NEWS WRAP

Signs of a stabilizing China and improvement in European growth prospects have helped cushion what has been deteriorating risk appetite this week. Mainly, global concerns have been manifested in the form of collapsing emerging markets, which has boosted those currencies with strong short-term growth momentum like the British Pound.

The calm developing, however, hasn’t necessarily made its way into FX markets. The Australian Dollar is the only currency to outperform the US Dollar today, though gains have been difficult to hold on to. Similarly, signs that the Euro-Zone may stay out of recession in the 3Q’13 haven’t produced a stronger Euro. In both of these cases, it is due to the turn in the US Dollar.

The release of yesterday’s July FOMC Minutes proved to be more ‘boom’ than ‘bust,’ as the Federal Reserve policymakers have made it abundantly clear that they are seeking to taper QE3 sooner than later.

This belief is largely predicated on the notable shift in the inflation discussion – more were concerned than at the June meeting that the upswing in US growth prospects would push inflation back to the Fed’s +2% medium-term goal sooner than later. Layering concerns in over asset bubbles in global equities and sovereign bonds, a clearer picture shows the stars are indeed aligning for a ‘Septaper.’

TRADING TIPS

SELL EURUSD BELOW

1.3300 TGT 1.3280/1.3250

SL 1.3330

BUY USDJPY ABOVE 98.80

TGT 99.00/99.30 SL 98.50

SELL GBPUSD BELOW

1.5560 TGT 1.5540/1.5510

SL 1.5590

HEADLINES

HOURLY EURUSD CHART

HOURLY EURUSD CHART

ANALYSIS

EURUSD LOOKS DOWNWARD

TREND: BEARISH

STRATEGY: SELL ON RISE

MACD =>.0003(BEARISH SIGNAL)

RSI => 31(BEARISH SIGNAL)

HOURLY USDJPY CHART

ANALYSIS

USDJPY LOOKS UPWARD

TREND: BULLISH

STRATEGY: BUY ON DIPS

MACD =>.10(BULLISH SIGNAL)

RSI =>76(BULLISH SIGNAL)

HOURLY GBPUSD CHART

ANALYSIS

GBPUSD LOOKS DOWNWARD

TREND: BEARISH

STRATEGY: SELL ON RISE

MACD =>.0004(BEARISH SIGNAL)

RSI =>29(BEARISH SIGNAL)

HOURLY EURGBP CHART

ANALYSIS

EURGBP LOOKS UPWARD

TREND: BULLISH

STRATEGY: BUY ON DIPS

MACD =>.0004(BULLISH SIGNAL)

RSI =>53(BULLISH SIGNAL)

HOURLY USD INDEX CHART

ANALYSIS

USD INDEX LOOKS UPWARD

TREND: BULLISH

STRATEGY: BUY ON DIPS

MACD =>.0001(BULLISH SIGNAL)

RSI =>75(BULLISH SIGNAL)

Date Time Currency Event Importance Actual Forecast Previous Notes

Sun Aug 4

23:30

AiG Performance of Services Index

Medium 39.4

41.5

Mon Aug 5

00:30

AUD TD Securities Inflation (YoY) (JUL)

Medium 2.7%

2.4%

00:30

AUD TD Securities Inflation (MoM) (JUL)

Low 0.5%

0.0%

01:00

NZD ANZ Commodity Price (JUL)

Low 0.6%

-3.7%

01:30

AUD Retail Sales s.a. (MoM) (JUN)

Medium 0.0% 0.4% 0.2%

01:30

AUD Retail Sales Ex Inflation(QoQ) (2Q)

Low 0.0% -0.1% 2.0%

01:45

CNY HSBC/Markit Services PMI (JUL)

Medium 51.3

51.3

06:00

CHF UBS Real Estate Bubble Index (2Q)

Medium 1.20

1.17

07:45

EUR Italian Purchasing Manager Index Services (JUL)

Low 48.7 46.5 45.8

07:50

EUR French Purchasing Manager Index Services (JUL F)

Low 48.6 48.3 48.3

07:55

EUR German

Purchasing Manager Index Services (JUL F)

Medium 51.3 52.5 52.5

08:00

EUR Euro-Zone Purchasing Manager Index Composite (JUL F)

Medium 50.5 50.4 50.4

08:00

EUR Euro-Zone Purchasing Manager Index Services (JUL F)

Medium 49.8 49.6 49.6

08:30

EUR Euro-Zone Sentix Investor Confidence (AUG)

Medium -4.9 -10.0 -12.6

08:30

GBP Purchasing Manager Index Services (JUL)

Medium 60.2 57.4 56.9

08:30

GBP Official Reserves (Changes) (JUL)

Low $1672M

-$1871M

09:00

EUR Euro-Zone Retail Sales (YoY) (JUN)

Medium -0.9% -1.3% 0.3%

09:00

EUR Euro-Zone Retail Sales (MoM) (JUN)

Low -0.5% -0.7% 1.1%

14:00

USD ISM Non-Manufacturing Composite (JUL)

Medium 56.0 53.1 52.2

15:45

USD Fed's Fisher Speaks on the Economy in Oregon

Low

21:00

USD EIA Gasoline and Diesel Fuel Update

Low

ECONOMIC CALLENDER

22:00

NZD ANZ Truckometer Heavy (MoM) (JUL)

Low 9.6%

-7.8%

23:01

GBP BRC Sales Like-For-Like (YoY) (JUL)

Low 2.2% 2.0% 1.4%

Tue

Aug 6 01:30

AUD Trade Balance (Australian dollar) (JUN)

Medium 602M 804M 507M

01:30

AUD ANZ Job Advertisements (MoM) (JUL)

Low -1.1%

-1.6%

01:30

AUD House Price Index (QoQ) (2Q)

Low 2.4% 1.0% 0.8%

01:30

AUD House Price Index (YoY) (2Q)

Low 5.1% 3.0% 3.3%

04:30 LIVE

AUD Reserve Bank of Australia Rate Decision (AUG 6)

High 2.50% 2.50% 2.75%

05:00

JPY Coincident Index (JUN P)

Medium 105.2 105.1 106.0

05:00

JPY Leading Index (JUN P)

Medium 107.0 107.3 110.7

07:00

GBP Halifax House Price (3MoY) (JUL)

Low 4.6% 4.3% 3.7%

07:00

GBP Halifax Plc House Prices s.a. (MoM) (JUL)

Low 0.9% 0.5% 0.7%

08:02

GBP New Car Registrations (YoY) (JUL)

Low 12.7%

13.4%

08:30

GBP Industrial Production (YoY) (JUN)

Medium 1.2% 0.8% -2.3%

08:30

GBP Manufacturing Production (YoY) (JUN)

Medium 2.0% 1.0% -2.9%

08:30

GBP Industrial Production (MoM) (JUN)

Low 1.1% 0.7% 0.0%

08:30

GBP Manufacturing Production (MoM) (JUN)

Low 1.9% 1.0% -0.7%

09:00 LIVE

EUR Italian Gross Domestic Product s.a. and w.d.a. (YoY) (2Q P)

Medium -2.0% -2.2% -2.4%

09:00 LIVE

EUR Italian Gross Domestic Product s.a. and w.d.a. (QoQ) (2Q P)

Low -0.2% -0.4% -0.6%

10:00

EUR German Factory Orders n.s.a. (YoY) (JUN)

Medium 4.3% 0.3% -2.0%

10:00

EUR German Factory Orders s.a. (MoM) (JUN)

Low 3.8% 1.0% -0.5%

12:30

USD Trade Balance (JUN)

Medium

-$43.5B -$45.0B

12:30

CAD International Merchandise Trade (Canadian dollar) (JUN)

Low

-0.51B -0.30B

14:00

GBP NIESR Gross Domestic Product Estimate (JUL)

High

0.6%

14:00

USD IBD/TIPP Economic Optimism (AUG)

Low

47.5 47.1

14:00

USD JOLTs Job Openings (JUN)

Low

3895 3828

17:00

USD Fed's Evans speaks to reporters in Chicago

Low

22:45

NZD Unemployment Rate (2Q)

High

6.3% 6.2%

22:45

NZD Employment Change (YoY) (2Q)

Medium

0.7% 0.3%

22:45

NZD Average Hourly Earnings (QoQ) (2Q)

Low

0.6% 1.0%

22:45

NZD Employment Change (QoQ) (2Q)

Low

0.3% 1.7%

22:45

NZD Private Wages inc Overtime (QoQ) (2Q)

Low

0.5% 0.3%

22:45

NZD Participation Rate (QoQ) (2Q)

Low

67.9% 67.8%

22:45

NZD Private Wages ex Overtime (QoQ) (2Q)

Low

0.5% 0.4%

23:30

AUD AiG Performance of Construction Index (JUL)

Medium

39.5

23:50

JPY Official Reserve Assets (JUL)

Low

$1238.7B

Wed

Aug 7 01:30

AUD Home Loans (JUN)

Medium

2.0% 1.8%

01:30

AUD Value of Loans (MoM) (JUN)

Medium

2.3%

01:30

AUD Investment Lending (JUN)

Low

1.5%

05:45

CHF SECO Consumer Confidence (JUL)

Medium

-1 -5

07:00

CHF Foreign Currency Reserves (JUL)

Low

431.0B 434.8B

07:15

CHF CPI - EU Harmonised (YoY) (JUL)

Medium

0.2%

07:15

CHF Consumer Price Index (YoY) (JUL)

Medium

-0.1% -0.1%

07:15

CHF CPI - EU Harmonised (MoM) (JUL)

Low

0.2%

07:15

CHF Consumer Price Index (MoM) (JUL)

Low

-0.4% 0.1%

08:30

GBP Lloyds Employment Confidence (JUL)

Low

-33

09:30 LIVE

GBP Bank of England Inflation Report

High

10:00

EUR German Industrial Production n.s.a. and w.d.a. (YoY) (JUN)

Medium

-0.3% -1.0%

10:00

EUR German Industrial Production s.a. (MoM) (JUN)

Low

0.3% -1.0%

11:00

USD MBA Mortgage Applications (AUG 2)

Low

-3.7%

12:30

CAD Building Permits (MoM) (JUN)

Medium

-1.2% 4.5%

14:00

CAD Ivey Purchasing Managers Index s.a. (JUL)

Medium

56.0 55.3

14:30

USD DOE Cushing OK Crude Inventory (AUG 2)

Low

-1904K

14:30

USD DOE U.S. Crude Oil Inventories (AUG 2)

Low

431K

14:30

USD DOE U.S. Distillate Inventory (AUG 2)

Low

-466K

14:30

USD DOE U.S. Gasoline Inventories (AUG 2)

Low

770K

16:30

USD Fed's Plosser Speaks on Economy in Washington

Low

17:40

USD Fed's Pianalto Speaks on Monetary Policy in Cleveland

Low

19:00

USD Consumer Credit (JUN)

Medium

$15.000B $19.615B

23:50

JPY Bank Lending incl Trusts (YoY) (JUL)

Medium

1.9% 1.9%

23:50

JPY Japan Buying Foreign Bonds (Yen) (AUG 2)

Medium

¥233.2B

23:50

JPY Japan Buying Foreign Stocks (Yen) (AUG 2)

Medium

-¥154.9B

23:50

JPY Trade Balance - BOP Basis (Yen) (JUN)

Medium

-¥128.7B -¥906.7B

23:50

JPY Adjusted Current Account Total (Yen) (JUN)

Low

¥727.3B ¥623.3B

23:50

JPY Bank Lending Banks ex-Trust (JUL)

Low

2.2%

23:50

JPY BoP Current Account Balance (YoY) (JUN)

Low

-3.5% 58.1%

23:50

JPY Current Account Total (Yen) (JUN)

Low

¥396.5B ¥540.7B

23:50

JPY Foreign Buying Japan Bonds (Yen) (AUG 2)

Low

-¥430.3B

23:50

JPY Foreign Buying Japan Stocks (Yen) (AUG 2)

Low

-¥61.8B

23:50

JPY Housing Loans (YoY) (2Q)

Low

3.2%

Thu

Aug 8

JPY Bank of Japan Monetary Policy Statement

High

JPY Bank of Japan Rate Decision (AUG 8)

High

CNY Trade Balance (JUL)

Medium

$25.90B $27.12B

JPY BOJ 2014 Monetary Base Target (AUG 8)

Medium

¥270T

USD MBA Mortgage Foreclosures (2Q)

Low

3.6%

USD Mortgage Delinquencies (2Q)

Low

7.3%

CNY Exports (YoY) (JUL)

Low

1.5% -3.1%

CNY Imports (YoY) (JUL)

Low

1.0% -0.7%

00:00

NZD QV House Prices (YoY) (JUL)

Low

7.6%

01:30

AUD Employment Change (JUL)

High

6.0K 10.3K

01:30

AUD Unemployment Rate (JUL)

High

5.8% 5.7%

01:30

AUD Full Time Employment Change (JUL)

Medium

-4.4K

01:30

AUD Part Time Employment Change (JUL)

Low

14.8K

01:30

AUD Participation Rate (JUL)

Low

65.3% 65.3%

02:00

JPY Tokyo Avg Office Vacancies (JUL)

Low

8.46

04:30

JPY Bankruptcies (YoY) (JUL)

Medium

-8.0%

05:00

JPY Eco Watchers Survey: Outlook (JUL)

Medium

54.1 53.6

05:00

JPY Eco Watchers Survey: Current (JUL)

Low

53.5 53

05:45

CHF Unemployment Rate (JUL)

Medium

2.9% 2.9%

05:45

CHF Unemployment Rate s.a. (JUL)

Medium

3.2% 3.2%

06:00

EUR German Trade Balance (euros) (JUN)

Medium

15.0B 13.1B

06:00

EUR German Current Account (euros) (JUN)

Low

17.0B 11.2B

06:00

EUR German Exports s.a. (MoM) (JUN)

Low

1.0% -2.4%

06:00

EUR German Imports s.a. (MoM) (JUN)

Low

0.0% 1.7%

06:30

AUD Foreign Reserves (Australian dollar) (JUL)

Low

A$51.9B

08:00

EUR ECB Publishes Monthly Report

High

12:30

CAD New Housing Price Index (YoY) (JUN)

Medium

1.8%

12:30

USD Initial Jobless Claims (AUG 3)

Medium

335K 326K

12:30

CAD New Housing Price Index (MoM) (JUN)

Low

0.1%

12:30

USD Continuing Claims (JUL 27)

Low

2951K

14:30

USD EIA Natural Gas Storage Change (AUG 2)

Low

59

22:45

NZD NZ Card Spending (MoM) (JUL)

Medium

1.2%

22:45

NZD Card Spending - Retail (MoM) (JUL)

Low

0.4% 1.1%

23:50

JPY Tertiary Industry Index (MoM) (JUN)

Medium

-0.4% 1.2%

23:50

JPY Japan Money Stock M2+CD (YoY) (JUL)

Low

3.8% 3.8%

23:50

JPY Japan Money Stock M3 (YoY) (JUL)

Low

3.1% 3.0%

Fri

Aug 9 01:30

CNY Consumer Price Index (YoY) (JUL)

High

2.8% 2.7%

01:30

CNY Producer Price Index (YoY) (JUL)

Medium

-2.1% -2.7%

05:00

JPY Bank of Japan's Monthly Economic Report for August

Medium

05:00

JPY Consumer Confidence Index (JUL)

Medium

45.0 44.3

05:30

CNY Fixed Assets Ex Rural YTD (YoY) (JUL)

Medium

20.0% 20.1%

05:30

CNY Industrial Production YTD (YoY) (JUL)

Medium

9.3%

05:30

CNY Industrial Production (YoY) (JUL)

Medium

8.8% 8.9%

05:30

CNY Retail Sales YTD (YoY) (JUL)

Medium

12.7%

05:30

CNY Retail Sales (YoY) (JUL)

Medium

13.4% 13.3%

08:30

GBP Total Trade Balance (Pounds) (JUN)

Medium

-£2350 -£2435

08:30

GBP Construction Output s.a. (MoM) (JUN)

Low

0.0%

08:30

GBP Construction Output s.a. (YoY) (JUN)

Low

-4.8%

08:30

GBP Trade Balance Non EU (Pounds) (JUN)

Low

-£4093

08:30

GBP Visible Trade Balance (Pounds) (JUN)

Low

-£8500 -£8491

12:15

CAD Housing Starts (JUL)

Medium

191.0K 199.6K

12:30

CAD Net Change in Employment (JUL)

High

6.0K -0.4K

12:30

CAD Unemployment Rate (JUL)

High

7.1% 7.1%

12:30

CAD Full Time Employment Change (JUL)

Medium

-32.4

12:30

CAD Part Time Employment Change (JUL)

Low

32.2

12:30

CAD Participation Rate (JUL)

Low

66.7

14:00

USD Wholesale Inventories (JUN)

Medium

0.4% -0.5%

14:00

USD Wholesale Trade Sales (MoM) (JUN)

Low

0.7% 1.6%

Disclaimer

The information and views in this report, our website & all the service we provide are believed to be reliable, but we do not accept any responsibility (or liability) for errors of fact or opinion. Users have the right to choose the product/s that suits them the most.

Sincere efforts have been made to present the right investment perspective. The information contained herein is based on analysis and up on sources that we consider reliable.

This material is for personal information and based upon it & takes no responsibility

The information given herein should be treated as only factor, while making investment decision. The report does not provide individually tailor-made investment advice. Epic research recommends that investors independently evaluate particular investments and strategies, and encourages investors to seek the advice of a financial adviser. Epic research shall not be responsible for any transaction conducted based on the information given in this report, which is in violation of rules and regulations of NSE and BSE.

The share price projections shown are not necessarily indicative of future price performance. The information herein, together with all estimates and forecasts, can change without notice. Analyst or any person related to epic research might be holding positions in the stocks recommended. It is understood that anyone who is browsing through the site has done so at his free will and does not read any views expressed as a recommendation for which either the site or its owners or anyone can be held responsible for . Any surfing and reading of the information is the acceptance of this disclaimer.

All Rights Reserved.

Investment in equity & bullion market has its own risks.

We, however, do not vouch for the accuracy or the completeness thereof. we are not responsible for any loss incurred whatsoever for any financial profits or loss which may arise from the recommendations above epic research does not purport to be an invitation or an offer to buy or sell any financial instrument. Our Clients (Paid Or Unpaid), Any third party or anyone else have no rights to forward or share our calls or SMS or Report or Any Information Provided by us to/with anyone which is received directly or indirectly by them. If found so then Serious Legal Actions can be taken.