daily market report - gulfbase.com...daily market report saudi arabia stock exchange 11 june 2013...

Daily Market Report Saudi Arabia Stock Exchange

11 June 2013

TASI 7,635.75

Volume

Value

Trades

Market Commentary

Global markets drift lower

Global stocks declined as the investors digested the mixed set of news. Earlier over the weekend, Beijing reported a sharp slowdown in exports in May from April while imports unexpectedly dropped owing to weakness in the domestic economy. Meanwhile, in the euro zone, France reported good industrial output data which rose by 2.2% in March. revised data showed that the country's economy did worse than expected in the first quarter of this year, shrinking by 0.6instead of 0.5%. Further, before the opening of the US markets S&P raised its outlook for the US economy to stable.agency cited strength of the US economy and currency.Asian markets are witnessing some selling pressure. Japanese stocks fell as BoJ refrained from extending the length of loans to lenders, which pushed the Yen higher against the dollar.225 is down 0.4%, while Hang Seng is down 0.9%JPT.

TASI continues to consolidate

• TASI consolidated in the last session as the index declined

marginally by 0.1% to end the session at 7,635.8

Banking and Petrochemical sectors fell 0.3% each.

turnover rose by approximately 17% from Sunday

SAR6.8bn on Monday.

• Market breadth was negative as 43 stocks gained while 91

stocks ended the session in red. Market heavyweight SABIC

declined 0.3%, while Al Rajhi gained 0.3%.

Outlook

We expect TASI to open on a negative note today amid

in the global markets. Technically, as well TASI is looking weak

with immediate resistance at 7,685.

GCC Indices Close 1D% WTD%

Saudi Arabia 7,635.7 -0.1 0.3

Qatar 9,372.9 0.4 0.9

Dubai 2,344.8 -2.3 -3.2

Abu Dhabi 3,556.4 -1.0 -1.2

Kuwait 7,927.9 0.3 -1.2

Oman 6,633.4 1.3 2.1

Bahrain 1,196.0 0.1 -0.5

Global Indices Performance Close 1D%

DJ Industrial 15,238.59 -0.1

S&P 500 1,642.81 0.0

Nikkei 225 13,514.20 4.9

Hang Seng 21,615.09 0.2

FTSE 100 6,400.45 -0.2

CAC 40 3,864.36 -0.2

7,635.75 -0.08%

309.6mn

Tel: +966 1 211 9332

SAR6,377.9mn

125,810

TASI Intra-day Movement

Global stocks declined as the investors digested the mixed set of ijing reported a sharp

while imports ly dropped owing to weakness in the domestic

France reported good 2.2% in March. In Italy,

revised data showed that the country's economy did worse than r of this year, shrinking by 0.6%

Further, before the opening of the US markets its outlook for the US economy to stable. The rating strength of the US economy and currency. Today,

selling pressure. Japanese refrained from extending the length of loans to

the dollar. Nikkei 225 is down 0.4%, while Hang Seng is down 0.9% at 1:30pm

ndex declined

% to end the session at 7,635.8 on Monday.

fell 0.3% each. Trading

Sunday to

gained while 91

stocks ended the session in red. Market heavyweight SABIC

We expect TASI to open on a negative note today amid weakness

well TASI is looking weak

Source: Bloomberg

Saudi Market Indices

Index Close Change (%)

Tadawul All Share Index 7,635.8

Banks & Financial Services 16,573.2

Petrochemical Industries 6,188.4

Cement 6,958.9

Retail 9,612.1

Energy & Utilities 4,740.5

Agriculture & Food Ind. 7,979.5

Telecom & IT 2,430.2

Insurance 1,216.8

Multi-Investment 3,676.0

Industrial Investment 6,520.3

Building & Construction 3,251.2

Real Estate Development 4,599.7

Transport 4,958.0

Media and Publishing 2,818.1

Hotel & Tourism 11,734.6

Source: Tadawul

MTD% YTD% Value Traded

(USD mn) Exchange Mkt. Cap. (USD mn)

3.1 12.3 1,700.7 408,445.8

1.5 12.1 134.2 141,411.4

-0.9 44.5 162.22 60,842.2

-0.2 35.2 72.6 103,669.2

-4.5 33.6 203.1 109,134.0

3.4 15.1 30.3 23,135.9

0.0 12.2 0.5 21,255.9

7,626

7,636

7,646

7,656

11:00 12:00 13:00

WTD% YTD%

Asset/Currency Performance Close

-0.1 16.3 Gold(US$) 1,386.50

0.0 15.2 Silver(US$) 21.93

4.9 30.0 Crude Oil (Brent)(US$) 103.64

0.2 -4.6 Euro(US$)

-0.2 8.5 USD Index 81.65

-0.2 6.1 JPY(US$) 98.76

Research Department [email protected]

+966 1 211 9332/ Fax: +966 1 2119422

Change (%) MTD (%) YTD (%)

-0.1 3.1 12.3

-0.3 5.5 13.2

-0.3 1.7 5.7

-0.3 2.2 14.8

-0.3 0.6 28.1

-0.2 1.3 -1.0

-1.7 2.1 21.1

0.3 2.4 12.3

-1.4 -0.3 -10.6

0.5 3.6 -0.6

-0.1 0.5 3.2

-0.3 0.5 15.3

3.3 7.7 37.5

1.2 2.0 1.9

-0.5 -4.2 -3.1

1.3 2.4 61.8

P/E P/B Dividend

Yield%

16.3 2.0 3.6

11.9 1.7 4.9

15.1 1.0 3.6

10.9 1.3 4.9

24.3 1.4 3.4

11.5 1.8 4.2

8.7 0.8 4.1

14:00 15:00

Close 1D% WTD% YTD%

1,386.50 0.2 0.2 -17.2

21.93 1.3 1.3 -27.7

103.64 -0.8 -0.8 -8.2

1.33 0.3 0.3 0.5

81.65 0.0 0.0 2.4

98.76 1.2 1.2 13.8


11 June 2013

` 2

Tadawul Market Overview

Sector Turnover Sector Volume

Top Gainers

Volume Leaders

Company Closing Price

(SAR) Change % Volume (mn) Company

Closing Price (SAR)

Change % Volume (mn)

Makkah 69.8 9.8 2.2 ZAIN KSA 10.2 -1.0 47.1

Taiba 35.9 7.2 5.4 Dar Al Arkan 10.1 2.0 45.6

Budget Saudi 56.3 4.7 1.2 Emaar E .C 10.2 1.5 37.9

Hotels 31.3 3.6 1.7 Alinma 14.3 0.0 17.6

MEDGULF 22.1 2.8 1.1 Atheeb Telecom 16.2 0.3 14.6

Source: Tadawul

Top Losers Value Leaders


(SAR) Change % Volume (mn)


(SAR) Change % Value (mn)

WAFA Insurance 137.5 -7.9 0.4 ZAIN KSA 10.2 -1.0 486.4

Arabian Shield 53.0 -7.0 3.5 Dar Al Arkan 10.1 2.0 458.4

SAICO 55.0 -3.9 0.6 Emaar E .C 10.2 1.5 382.9

Al Alamiya 56.3 -3.4 0.5 SABIC 94.5 -0.3 294.2

SAVOLA Group 51.8 -3.3 0.4 Jabal Omar 28.8 1.1 255.5

Source: Tadawul

Source: Data pertaining to all the tables in this page are taken from Tadawul Stock Exchange, Official Website

445.5

694.8205.5

224.8

72.0385.7

795.4

740.9

204.1192.6

237.6

1,778.8

225.426.4 148.5

21.7

27.9 6.8

5.75.3

10.0

62.9

17.3

10.15.2

8.7

116.6

8.30.5

2.8

Banks & Financial Services Petrochemical Industries Cement

Retail Energy & Utilities Agriculture & Food Industries

Telecommunication & Information Technology Insurance Multi-Investment

Industrial Investment Building & Construction Real Estate Development

Transport Media and Publishing Hotel & Tourism

52 Week New High / Low Stocks Consistently Gaining / Losing Over Last 3Sessions


(SAR) New High New Low

Company Current Price

(SAR) 3 Days

Change % 3 Days Avg.

Volume (mn)

Halwani Bros Co 62.0 66.5 – Makkah Construction and Development Co 69.7 16.0 0.9

Makkah Construction and Development Co 69.8 69.8 –

Sanad Cooperative Insurance & Reinsuranc 30.9 12.4 1.0

Taiba Holding Co 35.9 36.6 – Shams 88.0 -9.0 0.9

Al Alamiyah Cooperative Insurance 56.2 -6.6 0.8


11 June 2013

` 3

Tadawul Technical Watch

Technical Outlook Pivot Table

TASI declined marginally and closed near its trend line support of 7,632.0. The RSI seems to be topping out in the overbought zone, and about to move downwards, while the MACD is converging with the signal line. We expect TASI to decline further if it moves below the 7,632.0 level.

Symbol R2 R1 PP S1 S2

TASI 7,663.98 7,638.66 7,590.51 7,565.19 7,517.04

Tadawul All Shares Index

Stocks Closest to Resistance Stocks Closest to Support


(SAR) R1 R2 PP Company

Closing Price (SAR)

S1 S2 PP

Knowledge Economic City 14.90 14.90 15.00 14.75

Saudi Arabian Amiantit Co 14.15 14.15 14.10 14.20

National Co for Glass Manufacturing/The 25.90 25.90 26.00 25.70

Arriyadh Development Co 23.20 23.20 23.10 23.30

Rabigh Refining & Petrochemicals Co 16.05 16.05 16.10 16.00

United Wire Factories Co 37.60 37.60 37.30 38.10

Al Sagr Co-operative Insurance 24.80 24.83 24.92 24.77

Salama Cooperative Insurance Co 50.50 50.50 50.00 51.25

Yamamah Saudi Cement Co 49.20 49.27 49.43 49.13

Saudi Research and Marketing Group 19.85 19.85 19.60 20.25

Saudi Re for Cooperative Reinsurance Co 10.80 10.82 10.88 10.78

Co for Cooperative Insurance/The 31.40 31.37 31.13 31.53

United Electronics Co 102.50 102.67 103.83 101.83

Saudi Arabian Fertilizer Co 148.75 148.58 148.17 148.92

Buruj Cooperative Insurance Co 47.30 47.43 47.77 47.07

Methanol Chemicals Co 13.20 13.18 13.12 13.22

National Gas & Industrialization Co 20.65 20.72 20.83 20.53

Ace Arabia Cooperative Insurance Co 65.25 65.17 64.83 65.58

Saudi Industrial Services Co 14.25 14.20 14.35 14.25

Refineries Co 62.35 62.27 61.83 62.33

Source: Tadawul


11 June 2013

` 4


Technical Outlook SABIC

SABIC declined for the

second trading session. The

RSI and MACD are trending

lower, showing signs of

bearishness. We expect

SABIC to decline further if it

moves below the 12 day

moving average (currently at

SAR94.26).

R2 R1 PP S1 S2

95.50 95.00 94.50 94.00 93.50

Saudi Basic Industries Corp.

Technical Outlook STC

STC declined for the third succesive trading session. It closed near its support level of SAR41.20. Both, the RSI and MACD are sharply trending downwards, showing increasing selling pressure. We expect STC to decline further if it is not able to retain its position above the support level of SAR41.20.

R2 R1 PP S1 S2

43.53 43.17 42.63 42.27 41.73

Saudi Telecom Co.


11 June 2013

` 5


Technical Outlook Al Rajhi

Al Rajhi gained on Monday to close above its resistance level of SAR72.07. The RSI and MACD are still pointing upwards reflecting strong buying interest. We expect Al Rajhi to gain further if it retains its position above the support line at SAR72.07.

R2 R1 PP S1 S2

72.67 72.33 71.67 71.33 70.67

Al Rajhi Bank

Technical Outlook KAYAN

Kayan gained for the second consecutive trading session. The RSI is tilted upwards and is about to penetrate in overbought zone. The MACD is continuing its uptrend above the signal line. We expect Kayan to gain further if it retains its position above its immediate support at SAR11.77. The next resistance is seen at SAR12.04.

R2 R1 PP S1 S2

11.88 11.82 11.73 11.67 11.58

Saudi Kayan Petrochemical Co.


11 June 2013

` 6


Technical Outlook MA’ADEN

After declining in the previous trading session, MA’ADEN formed a doji candlestick pattern on Monday. At this level it indicates that there is possibility of trend reversal and stock can rise from here. The RSI and the MACD are consolidating. We expect MA’ADEN to consolidate at current level with positive bias.

R2 R1 PP S1 S2

30.83 30.67 30.43 30.27 30.03

Saudi Arabian Mining Co.

Major GCC Companies

Technical Outlook EMAAR – Dubai Financial Market

As expected, Emaar declined for the second successive trading session. It breached its support level and closed just above its 55 days moving average (currently at AED 5.563). Both the RSI and MACD are sharply tilted downwards, indicating an increase in selling pressure. We expect Emaar to decline further if it breaks its 55 day moving average.

R2 R1 PP S1 S2

5.90 5.85 5.76 5.71 5.62

Emaar Properties


11 June 2013

` 7

GCC Technical Watch

Technical Outlook ARTC

Arabtec declined for second consecutive trading session and closed just below its 12 days moving average. The RSI and MACD are trending downwards indicating increasing selling pressure. We expect Arabtec to decline further if it is not able to hold its position at its 12 day moving average. If it falls, the next immediate support is in form of 21 day moving average (at AED2.01).

R2 R1 PP S1 S2

2.28 2.22 2.14 2.08 2.00

Arabtec Holding Co.

Technical Outlook DANA

After declining on Sunday, Dana Gas closed with a doji pattern on Monday at its immediate support at AED0.58. The RSI has fallen to the 50 level mark. The MACD still moving lower. We expect the stock to bounce back if it is able to hold on to its support level of AED0.58.

R2 R1 PP S1 S2

0.60 0.60 0.58 0.58 0.56

Dana Gas


11 June 2013

` 8

GCC Technical Watch

Technical Outlook IQCD

Industries Qatar marginally gained as it continued to trade within the descending triangle chart pattern. The RSI is slightly tilted upwards, suggesting that the buying interest might increase further. The MACD is still below the signal line, and moving down. We expect Industries Qatar to consolidate at the current level with positive bias. Next immediate resistance is at QR164.61.

R2 R1 PP S1 S2

166.33 165.67 164.53 163.87 162.73

Industries Qatar

Technical Outlook KFIN

As expected, Kuwait Finance declined for the third consecutive trading session. After penetrating in oversold zone the RSI is in phase of consolidation. The MACD is diverging from the signal line on the downside. We expect Kuwait Finance to consolidate at current level with a negative bias. If it falls, the next immediate horizontal support is expected at KD675.00.

R2 R1 PP S1 S2

740.00 730.00 720.00 710.00 700.00

Kuwait Finance House


11 June 2013

` 9

Definition - Technical Indicators

Candlestick Patterns, Doji

Doji is a form of candlestick pattern. It normally suggests major up and down movements. Trading above the Doji is positive for the market. Trading below the Doji value

indicates bearish momentum.

Hammer

A small body (white or black) near the high with a long lower shadow with little or no upper shadow. This indicates a bullish pattern during a downtrend.

Inverse-black-hammer: A bottom reversal signal with confirmation the next trading day.

Moving Average, SMA (Simple Moving Average)

Normally we use the 10, 20, 50 and 125 day SMA to identify the trend. A cross-over of the short-term moving average with the long-term moving average is positive for

the market. The reverse is the case on the negative side.

DEMA - Double-smoothed Exponential Moving Average

We use the 10, 20 and 40 DEMA to identify a trend. A cross-over of the 10 and 20 DEMA gives a positive indication. A cross-over of the 20 and 10 DEMA gives a negative

indication. As long as a stock or index trades above the 40 DEMA, this gives a positive indication for the stock or index. Trading below the 40 DEMA may create downside

for a short time.

MACD - Moving Average Convergence and Divergence

The MACD has its own line period and another signal line; the dotted line indicates the signal line. When the MACD crosses the signal line from below and trades above

it, it gives a positive indication. The reverse is the situation for a bearish trend.

RSI - Relative Strength Index

When the RSI remains below 30, it indicates that a market or stock is in oversold territory. When the RSI is above 70, it indicates that the market/stock is in an

overbought level.

Price ROC

When the Price ROC is above zero it gives positive signals for an index or stock. When the price ROC is below zero, it gives a negative signal for the index or stock.

Stochastic Oscillators

When Stochastic Oscillators are below zero, the stock is in an oversold zone and some bounce back is expected. When Stochastic Oscillators are above zero, the stock is in

an overbought zone and some correction is expected.

Williams’ %R

When Williams’ %R is above zero, the stock is in an overbought zone and some correction is expected. When Williams’ %R is below zero, the stock is in an oversold zone

and some bounce back is expected.

CCI (Commodity Channel Index)

While the CCI was originally designed for commodities, the indicator also works very well with stocks and mutual funds.

There are two methods of interpreting the CCI:

1. Looking for divergences: A popular method of analyzing the CCI is to look for divergences in which the underlying security is making new highs while the CCI is failing

to surpass its previous highs. This classic divergence is usually followed by a correction in the security's price.

2. As an overbought/oversold indicator: The CCI usually oscillates between +/-100. Readings outside these ranges imply an overbought/oversold condition.

Fibonacci Retracements

Fibonacci Retracements are based on a trend line that we draw between a significant trough and peak. If the trend line is rising, the retracement lines will project

downward; if the trend line is falling, the retracement lines will project upward. The number of Fibonacci Retracement levels appearing on the chart depends on the

range of the y-axis. If we want to see all nine retracement levels, we may need to manually adjust the minimum and maximum values of the y-axis. Major Fibonacci

Levels are 23.6%, 38.2%, 50%, 61.8% and 100%.

Whipsaw

A whipsaw is a situation in which a share price heads in one direction, but then is followed quickly by a movement in the opposite direction. The origin of the term is the

push and pull action used by lumberjacks to cut wood with a type of saw of the same name.

Gravestone Doji

In a Japanese Candle Stick chart, this is a Doji candle where prices rallied but came back and closed at the level they started; the open and close are equal.


11 June 2013

` 10

Inside Bar

An inside bar is a bar, which is completely within the range of the preceding bar, i.e. it has a higher low and lower high than the bar immediately before it. An inside bar

indicates a time of indecision or consolidation. On a smaller time frame, it will look like a triangle. Inside bars often occur at tops and bottoms, in continuation flags, and

at key decision points like major support/resistance levels and consolidation breakouts.

Big Bar

A big bar is a bar, which is bigger than the preceding bar, i.e. it has a lower low and higher high than the bar immediately before it. Normally, after, forming a big bar, for

a coming few sessions, the stock may move in the range of the high and low of the big bar. Breaking out or breaking down will give a fresh bullish or bearish pattern.

Higher High

This implies that today’s intra-day high is higher than the intra-day high(s) of the previous session(s).

Lower High

This implies that today’s intra-day high is lower than the intra-day high(s) of the previous session(s).

Higher Low

This implies that today’s intra-day low is higher than the intra-day low(s) of the previous session(s).

Lower Low

This implies that today’s intra-day low is lower than the intra-day low(s) of the previous session(s).

Triangle

This is a technical analysis pattern created by drawing trend lines along a price range that gets narrower over time because of lower tops and higher bottoms. Variations

of a triangle include ascending and descending triangles. Technical analysts see a breakout of this triangular pattern as either bullish (on a breakout above the upper line)

or bearish (on a breakout below the lower line).

Standard Error Channel

Parallel lines drawn higher and lower from the Linear Regression Trend-line form Standard Error Channels. The distance at which they are traced is a certain

number of standard errors over or above the linear regression trend-line. The characteristic of the price fluctuations is its movement from one extreme to another and it

depends on the traders' common opinion. Prices trend up in the optimistic market whether a pessimistic one causes prices reduction. The prices are drawn to a certain

equilibrium point existing for each issue. The location of such point can be found out by using the Linear Regression analysis whether Standard Error Channel analysis

presents the data about the cyclic direction of the prices as well as the forecasts for possible trend changes.

Long Headed Doji Pattern

This is a bullish signal, particularly when around price support levels.

Double Tops / Double Bottoms

A double top is simply two peaks. After the second peak is formed a breakout through the base is a signal of a possible reversal of the trend in prices. In the case of a

double bottom, two troughs form and an expectation follow for the possibility of a trend reversal if the market price rises through the base. Waiting for confirmation is

important for trading double tops or double bottoms.


11 June 2013

` 11

Disclaimer

This research document has been prepared by Al Rajhi Capital Company (“Al Rajhi Capital”) of Riyadh, Saudi Arabia. It has been prepared for the general use of Al Rajhi

Capital’s clients and may not be redistributed, retransmitted or disclosed, in whole or in part, or in any form or manner, without the express written consent of Al Rajhi

Capital. Receipt and review of this research document constitute your agreement not to redistribute, retransmit, or disclose to others the contents, opinions, conclusion, or

information contained in this document prior to public disclosure of such information by Al Rajhi Capital. The information contained was obtained from various public

sources believed to be reliable but we do not guarantee its accuracy. Al Rajhi Capital makes no representations or warranties (express or implied) regarding the data and

information provided and Al Rajhi Capital does not represent that the information content of this document is complete, or free from any error, not misleading, or fit for

any particular purpose. This research document provides general information only. Neither the information nor any opinion expressed constitutes an offer or an invitation

to make an offer, to buy or sell any securities or other investment products related to such securities or investments. It is not intended to provide personal investment

advice and it does not take into account the specific investment objectives, financial situation and the particular needs of any specific person who may receive this

document.

Investors should seek financial, legal or tax advice regarding the appropriateness of investing in any securities, other investment or investment strategies discussed or

recommended in this document and should understand that statements regarding future prospects may not be realized. Investors should note that income from such

securities or other investments, if any, may fluctuate and that the price or value of such securities and investments may rise or fall. Fluctuations in exchange rates could

have adverse effects on the value of or price of, or income derived from, certain investments. Accordingly, investors may receive back less than originally invested. Al Rajhi

Capital or its officers or one or more of its affiliates (including research analysts) may have a financial interest in securities of the issuer(s) or related investments,

including long or short positions in securities, warrants, futures, options, derivatives, or other financial instruments. Al Rajhi Capital or its affiliates may from time to time

perform investment banking or other services for, solicit investment banking or other business from, any company mentioned in this research document. Al Rajhi Capital,

together with its affiliates and employees, shall not be liable for any direct, indirect or consequential loss or damages that may arise, directly or indirectly, from any use of

the information contained in this research document.

This research document and any recommendations contained are subject to change without prior notice. Al Rajhi Capital assumes no responsibility to update the

information in this research document. Neither the whole nor any part of this research document may be altered, duplicated, transmitted or distributed in any form or by

any means. This research document is not directed to, or intended for distribution to or use by, any person or entity who is a citizen or resident of or located in any locality,

state, country or other jurisdiction where such distribution, publication, availability or use would be contrary to law or which would subject Al Rajhi Capital or any of its

affiliates to any registration or licensing requirement within such jurisdiction.

Contact us Jithesh Gopi, CFA Head of Research Tel : +966 1 211 9332 [email protected]

Al Rajhi Capital Research Department Head Office, King Fahad Road P.O. Box 5561, Riyadh 11432 Kingdom of Saudi Arabia Email: [email protected] Al Rajhi Capital is licensed by the Saudi Arabian Capital Market Authority, License No. 07068/37.

daily market report - gulfbase.com...daily market report saudi arabia stock exchange 11 june 2013...

Documents