daily situation report balochistan covid...
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BALOCHISTAN HIGHLIGHTS
• 76 years old male patient expired due to COVID-19. The overall deaths
are 39 (CFR 1.2).
• In last 24 hours 106 confirmed cases reported from 05 districts of
Balochistan and total has risen to 3074. The active cases are 2311.
• Out of 3074, 94% (2,918) cases are from local community, Quetta (2,505)
followed by Killabdullah (115) Pishin (106), and Killasaifullah (35). (Detail Table
01, Graph 05).
• UN mission with NDMA lead visited Balochsitan province and had meeting with
Chief Minister regarding COVID-19 response and strengthen support to
Balochistan province.
• Secretary Health had meeting with WHO country representative to talk about
COVID-19 response and strengthening of health system particularly Lab,
Surveillance and Logistic support system in province.
• In last 24 hours 88 asymptomatic home isolated COVID-19 Positive persons recovered/released after completion of 28 days isolation with clear guidelines to follow all SOPs. The total recovered are 724 which is 23% of total cases.
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DAILY SITUATION REPORT BALOCHISTAN
PROVINCE
COVID-19 Updates from Operations Cell, Health Department, Govt. of Balochistan Date: 21-05-2020 Updates till: 8:00 PM
Due to increasing local transmission and
less following disease prevention
protocols the mortality (Deaths) are
increasing. The total deaths are 39.
Majority of COVID-19 patients expired
due to ARDS/COPD which shows typical
pattern of disease.
Highest numbers of deaths from Quetta
(31) followed by Pishin (05) , Lasbela (2)
and Sibi (01).
Death Category with positive COVID-19
04 Renal Failure
06 Hypertension/Diabetes
28 ARDS/COPD
01 Carcinoma
49723
19698 1988816814
3074 542 106 724 2311 39 3950
10000
20000
30000
40000
50000
60000
Graph 01. COVID-19 cases details till 21 May 2020, Balochsitan
3074
1992416685
71551235 579 148
48800
1045
14155
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Graph 02. Provincial wise positive cases of COVID-19, 21 May 2020
233
310 4 15
408
483
259
26 14 960
0
100
200
300
400
500
600Graph 03. Quarantine population Till 20 May 2020 - Balochsitan
MORTALITY AND RECOVERIES STATUS OF PROVINCE, TILL 19 MAY 2020
• Rising deaths in relation to speedy reported cases is alarming; overseeing the COVID-morbidity in Pakistan, it is revealed that so
far total of 45,898 confirmed cases have been reported across the country out of which 13,101 (28.5%) cases recovered besides
the 985 (3%) deaths till date.
• Distribution of confirmed cases among the provinces reveals (highest to lowest), province Sindh 17947 (39%) followed by Punjab
16685 (36%), KPK 6554 (14%), Balochistan 2885 (6%) and Islamabad 1138 (2%).
• The consolidated number of deaths from all the provinces to the whole of the country’s death toll, reveals highest from KPK 345
(35%), followed by Sindh 299 (30%), Punjab 289 (29%) and Balochistan 38 (4%) till date.
• The current mortality rate of the province over its confirmed cases reveals highest from KPK (5%), Sindh & Punjab (2%) each
followed by Balochistan, Islamabad, AJK, GB (1% each).
• Beside the prevailing mortality rate, a nominal number of confirmed cases have also been recovered from the province Punjab
5076 (30%), followed by KPK 2058 (31%), Sindh 4741 (26%) and Balochistan 608 (21%). The recovery rate of Balochistan in
comparison to other provinces can obviously be seen improving from 16% to 21% within 4 days.
COVID-19 LABORATORY STATUS OF BALOCHISTAN PROVINCE Presently, (04) lab facilities are existing in the whole province at Fatima Jinnah General & Chest Hospital and Sheikh Khalifa Bin Zaid Hospital
while one specific lab arrangements done in BMC Hospital solely for the tests of Doctors and medical related staff. The graph 04 shows the
daily basis lab capacity improvement. The data is only from PHL-Quetta. BMCH and SKBZ not included.
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31% 30% 26%
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Balochistan Islamabad KPK Punjab Sindh
Confirmed cases Active cases Rec Rate
118
284189
9410688
199128
385
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321
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329374
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370409
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Daily Lab Test Conducted at Fatima Jinnah Lab from 9 april - 21 May 2020 - Quetta (n=15881)
Table 01. Districts with Local transmission
Districts % Numbers
1 Quetta 85.8 2505
2 Chagai 0.6 18
3 Lorlai 0.3 9
4 Killabdullah 3.9 115
5 Pishin 3.6 106
6 Mastung 0.9 27
7 Sibi 0.4 13
8 Jafarabad 1.2 34
9 Khuzdar 0.2 7
10 Harnai 0.1 2
11 Kharan 0.1 4
12 Ziarat 0.3 8
13 Nushki 0.1 4
14 Panjgoor 0.1 4
15 Lasbela 0.5 14
16 Killasiafullah 1.2 35
17 Zhob 0.1 2
18 Dera Bugti 0.1 3
19 Gwadar 0.1 3
20 Kachu 0.0 1
21 Musakhail 0.1 2
22 Kohlu 0.0 1
23 Washuk 0.0 1
Provincial RRT RRTs screened 1141 persons for COVID-19 and took 304 lab samples of suspected cases. Total 88 Positive cases released
after completion of 28 days home isolation Protocols.P.RRT, TSO FELTP and WHO start working on COVID-19 revised death Protocols.
As of today, following number of cases were reported by PEI staff through ODK (May 20, 2020) 1. ILI = 1080 2. SARI = 19 3. Suspected COVID Cases Reported by PEI Staff = 1188 4. Suspected COVID Cases Investigated by PEI Staff = 997 5. Suspected COVID Cases became Positive = 139
PPHI-B/MERC Progress Awareness sessions (Male & Female) 25. Peoples aware on COVID-19 in Communities (Male & Female) 301. People Scanned 2766 Screening Activities through PPHI-B 23. No. of Suspect cases identified/ referred 18. MERC Collected 62 samples of Corona suspects.
Graph 06: DOUBLING OF CASES TO 500: The graph shows a smooth pattern of reporting of 500 cases within first 42 days evident to the
newly entry of virus and strict lockdown, restricting people inside home, however a clear picture of rise in coronavirus cases can be seen
through first 500 cases reported over completion of early 42 days which turned twice to 1000 cases within a week. This pattern continued
rising to next 500 cases in the next 7 days cumulating 1500 cases within 2 weeks and this pattern clearly explain increasing of cases due to
very fast local transmission. The recent addition of 500 cases after total 2000 cases was seen within 5 days alone taking these number to
ultimate hype. The hype in reporting of the sudden cases was in result of relaxation in the lockdown, letting masses to move out, extrovertly
visiting shopping places and un-necessary outdoor visit most probably.
LOCAL TRANSMISSION OF COVID-19 CASES BY DISTRICT WISE
SURVEILLANCE
LIMITED EPIDEMIOLOGICAL ANALYSIS OF 3074 CASES TILL 21st MAY 2020
85.8
0.6 0.33.9 3.6
0.9 0.4 1.2 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.3 0.1 0.1 0.5 1.2 0.1 0.1 0.10.0
10.0
20.0
30.0
40.0
50.0
60.0
70.0
80.0
90.0
100.0
Graph 5. Local transmission %ge district wise - Balochsitan, 21 May 2020
Graph 07. The line shows that the trend isn't as clearly upward in the first few days, when it dips up and down, but becomes obvious in
the days since. The trend line is clearly modified that positive cases are increasing slowly till 12 May. The positive cases decreased in 19
April and then significantly increase in 25 May. The most cases were reported 26 April to 10 March, after which we see a trend line is
fluctuating upward way. So, owing the trend line the people will become effect mostly on increasing way.
Graph 08. The trend line represent data has changed over time. The positive cases are downward in the trend line till 15 weeks. The
duration of 15 weeks the high-level cases was reported 90. The start of 15, positive cases are upward trend smoothly till 20 weeks of May.
So, the week 20 cases were hows trend line fluctuation. In the end the down word line cases is minimum due to week 21 is still continue.
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42 7 7 5 5 7Number of Days
Doubling of casess within days used 500, Balochistan Province till 21 May 2020
0 0 1 0 0 5 1 1 5 0
2742
22
2 4 3
208
0 5 3 6 7 314
1 513
4 104 6 1 18 2 4
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Graph 7. Daily wise COVID-19 Positive cases trend till 21 May 2020
0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 6
9046 50 33
191
350
459
725
664
459
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0 5 10 15 20 25
Weekly wise COVID-19 Positive cases trend till 21 May 2020
Graph 09. In the trend line, we observed a smooth trend/zero cases in the number of primary positive cases of COVID-19 over Jan to Feb,
after which we see the number of primary positive cases are being increased slowly in March. From March till May the number of positive cases increase every month however the cases increase remained large. The upward extend trend line shown that the high rate of positive reported cases are 1934 in the month of May.
Table 02 & 03: A side-by-side comparison of the descriptive statistics for the four numeric variables of age range of COVID-19 positive
lab test rate. This allows us to quickly make the following observations about the data. The maximum Age observed on the COVID-19
effected people are 94 and the Reading lab tests exceed 100 points, which was supposed to be the maximum possible age limit. The
minimum COVID-19 age limit is 1 month, which we see that a lot of children are being affected and cases are being reported on daily basis.
The average age of COVID-19 positive test score is 34 among 2883 of the first sections, but the median is 33. Because the median is more
resistant to such errors than the mean. Moreover, median ages are typically 30 – 44 and attack rate 37.84, but people can live to 100.
People of such age have 1 to 4 times the influence on the mean than they do on the median compared to very young people. Thus, the
median is a bit more up-to-date statistic concerning a country's age distribution and is a little more independent of mortality rates and life
expectancy than the mean. but if the mean is 34, you can't say as much, because that 33 could be influenced by a large population bulge
at age 94, for example, or perhaps a population gap in some age range due to a pandemic disease (COVID-19).
Table 02. Mean Age 34.52 Years
Median Age 33Years
Min age 1 Months
Max Age 94 Years
Table 03. Age group (Y) Number of Cases Percentage Population of that age
Group Attack rate/100000
population
<1-14 322 10.5 6715115 4.80
15-29 818 26.6 2832969 28.87
30-44 1006 32.7 2462510 40.85
45-59 543 17.7 884338 61.40
60 + 239 7.8 295446 80.89
Unknown 145 4.7
Grand Total 3073 100.0 13190378 216.82
0 0161
979
1934
-500
0
500
1000
1500
2000
2500
January Febuary March April May
Graph 9. Weekly wise COVID-19 Positive cases trend till 21 May 2020
Table 04. The table shows that the highest attack rate district is Quetta which comprise 2399 positive cases and attack rate is 98.65 of
total 100000. Atfte this, the second highest district is Pishin, which reportd cases are 114 and attack rate 14.49. Third district is Killa
Abdullah with attack rate 13.96.
Table 04. District Number of Cases Percentage Population Attack Rate/100000 population
Kohlu 1 0.03% 229041 0.436603054
Killa Saif Ullah 35 1.20% 366309 9.554774794
Lasbela 17 0.58% 613651 2.770304293
Ziarat 7 0.24% 171234 4.087973183
Dera Bughti 3 0.10% 312603 0.959683688
Panjgoor 4 0.14% 338079 1.183155416
Gwadar 3 0.10% 171234 1.751988507
Sibi 17 0.58% 144864 11.73514469
Harnai 2 0.07% 103666 1.929272857
Kachhi 2 0.07% 253275 0.789655513
Kharan 5 0.17% 166854 2.996631786
Khuzdar 7 0.24% 857187 0.81662461
Mastung 32 1.09% 284723 11.23899369
Musakhaiil 3 0.10% 178464 1.681011296
Sohbatpur 1 0.03% 214282 0.466674756
Zhob 4 0.14% 331827 1.205447417
Pishin 114 3.89% 786705 14.4908193
Killa Abdullah 117 4.00% 809499 14.45338413
Chaghi 11 0.38% 241498 4.554903146
Nushki 6 0.20% 191050 3.140539126
Loralai 8 0.27% 424636 1.883966503
Jaffarabad 35 1.20% 549028 6.374902555
Quetta 2494 85.18% 2431666 102.5634277
Grand Total 2928 100.00% 10171375 201.065882
PICTORIAL VIEW:
Secretary Health had meeting with WHO country representative to talk about COVID-19 response and strengthening of health system
NCOC video link meeting to talk about hotspots for smart lockdown to use IDSRS
The Malaria/VBD control program disinfected team sprayed at SoS village, NAB office and few affected villages related to COVID-19
CONTACT:
DR. SALEEM ABRO Director General Health Services Provincial Health Directorate, Quetta – Balochistan
Tel: +92-81-9211356, Email: [email protected]
Dr. NAQEEBULLAH NIAZI COVID-19 Operational Cell
Tel: +92-300-3869070
Dr. SARMAD KHAN COVID-19 Operational Cell
Tel: +92-321-2729110
Dr. EHSAN LARIK PDSRU – Technical Support Officer
Mob # 0332-7977162
Dr. DAWOOD RIAZ NPO Public Health Surveillance/ World Health Organization
+92 320 7804297 / +92 320 780429 / [email protected] / [email protected]
Dr. SAMI TAREEN Rapid Response Team lead, COVID-19 Operational Cell.
+92 081- 2822762
Control Room Health Dept Govt. of Balochistan operational 24/7 for any kind of information &
coordination regarding COVID-19 activities in Balochistan 081-9202080 / 111-400-400.