dampak penerapan gcg dalam bisnis bpr di masa datang · 2016. inflation (yoy growth, percent)...
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EKO B SUPRIYANTO/INFOBANK INSTITUTE
DAMPAK PENERAPAN GCG DALAM BISNIS BPR DI MASA DATANG
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Secara sektoral, kenaikan pertumbuhan belum merata Kenaikan pertumbuhan terutama ditopang oleh sektor konstruksi terkait proyek infrastruktur dan sektor jasa, sementara lapangan usaha lain, termasuk manufaktur, belum tumbuh kuat...
Pertumbuhan Ekonomi Sisi Lapangan Usaha %Y-o-Y, Tahun Dasar 2010
I II III IVPertanian, Kehutanan dan Perikanan 4.24 4.01 6.86 3.34 1.57 4.02Pertambangan & Penggalian 0.72 -1.32 -5.20 -5.66 -7.91 -5.08Industri Pengolahan 4.61 4.01 4.11 4.51 4.35 4.25Listrik, Gas & Air Bersih 5.57 1.73 0.76 0.56 1.81 1.21Pengadaan Air 5.87 5.39 7.76 8.75 6.77 7.17Konstruksi 6.97 6.03 5.35 6.82 8.24 6.65Perdagangan Besar & Eceran, & Reparasi Mobil & Motor 5.16 4.12 1.70 1.39 2.77 2.47Transportasi dan Pergudangan 7.36 5.78 5.92 7.26 7.67 6.68Penyediaan Akomodasi dan Makan Minum 5.77 3.37 3.75 4.48 5.79 4.36Informasi dan Komunikasi 10.10 10.09 9.66 10.74 9.74 10.06Jasa Keuangan 4.68 8.57 2.63 10.36 12.52 8.53Real Estat 5.00 5.26 5.03 4.78 4.25 4.82Jasa Perusahaan 9.81 7.36 7.64 7.63 8.13 7.69Administrasi Pemerintahan 2.38 4.73 6.29 1.27 6.70 4.75Jasa Pendidikan 5.55 5.03 11.71 8.08 5.32 7.45Jasa Kesehatan dan Kegiatan Lainnya 7.96 7.14 7.48 6.33 7.44 7.10Jasa Lainnya 8.93 7.98 8.06 8.11 8.15 8.08PDB 5.02 4.73 4.66 4.74 5.04 4.79Sumber : BPS
2015 2015S e k t o r 2014
Sumber: Bank Indonesia
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...sejalan dengan tren perlambatan kredit perbankan Pertumbuhan kredit pada Tw IV 2015 tercatat 10, 45% (yoy) atau menurun dari 11,1% (yoy) pada Tw III 2015...
Penurunan pertumbuhan kredit Tw IV 2015 terutama berasal dari penurunan pertumbuhan KMK, sementara pertumbuhan KI mengalami kenaikan.
Secara sektoral, peningkatan pertumbuhan kredit antara lain terjadi pada Sektor Listrik, Air dan Gas, Sektor Pengangkutan dan Sektor Jasa Dunia Usaha.
Pertumbuhan Kredit Perbankan
Rerata2008-2009
Rerata2010-2013
Mar-14 Jun-14 Sep-14 Dec-14 Mar-15 Jun-15 Sep-15 Dec-15
Per Sektor EkonomiPerdagangan 22.4% 23.8% 24.2% 18.3% 13.9% 12.4% 11.9% 9.5% 11.7% 11.2%Lain-lain 25.8% 22.2% 8.6% 13.9% 11.2% 12.7% 12.4% 9.2% 9.9% 8.6%Industri 16.6% 19.2% 26.2% 24.9% 16.1% 14.3% 17.5% 16.1% 18.1% 15.1%Pengangkutan 53.2% 21.0% 28.4% 28.6% 18.2% 5.1% 6.2% -4.6% -3.9% 3.3%Konstruksi 27.6% 15.3% 24.7% 17.5% 18.7% 26.9% 28.3% 27.5% 19.9% 17.4%Pertanian 24.5% 22.5% 24.5% 25.4% 21.7% 19.9% 16.4% 14.2% 18.4% 19.9%Jasa Dunia Usaha 27.6% 21.5% 19.5% 6.2% -1.0% -3.7% -4.7% -0.2% 3.7% 5.4%Jasa Sosial 19.0% 53.9% 24.3% 14.3% 19.5% 19.2% 15.6% 20.8% 10.9% 2.9%Pertambangan 35.5% 38.0% 13.8% 7.0% 17.1% 11.8% 6.7% 20.3% 4.4% -4.6%Listrik 85.2% 36.4% 41.4% 19.5% 21.1% 2.1% -4.8% 5.6% 6.8% 22.6%
Per Jenis PenggunaanKMK 23.1% 21.1% 16.6% 17.3% 13.3% 10.8% 9.9% 10.8% 10.7% 9.0%KI 28.4% 26.0% 34.6% 22.5% 16.4% 13.2% 13.5% 10.1% 13.0% 14.7%KK 25.8% 21.3% 12.9% 12.7% 10.1% 11.5% 11.6% 9.9% 10.1% 9.1%
Pertumbuhan Kredit (%)
Sumber: Bank Indonesia
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8
Sumber: CEIC, Bank Indonesia
USA
Japan
(percent) 20
18
16
14
12
10
Indonesia
6
4 China
2 European Union
0
-2
KEBIJAKAN SUKU BUNGA di BEBERAPA NEGARA
Maret BI-rate 6,75%
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Source: CEIC
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
16
18
20
6 8 10 12 2 4 6 8 10 12 2 4 6 8 10 12 2 4 6 8 10 12 2 4 6 8 10 12 2 4 6 8 10 12
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016
Inflation (yoy growth, percent)
Headline Core
Administered Volatile
Trend inflasi, tapi sumber inflasi tetap sama: Makanan
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Suku Bunga Kredit: 12% - 14%, Lebih Rendah
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Suku Bunga Dana: 1.75% and 8% - 9%
Sumber; Bank Indonesia, OJK diolah
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Government Bonds Yield (%) 20.00 18.00
16.00
14.00
12.00
10.00
8.00
6.00
4.00
2.00
0.00
1 Year 3 Years 5 Years 10 Years 20 Years 30 Years
Yield Surat Utang Negara: 7.5% - 9%
Sumber; Bank Indonesia dan Biro Riset InfoBank
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32
42
22 16
6
33 40
30
13
2
0 - 3,99 4 - 5,99 6 - 7,99 8 - 9,99 < 10
DESEMBER 2014 SEPTEMBER 2015
PERKEMBANGAN NIM BANK UMUM NASIONALPER DES 2014 - SEPT 2015
Sumber: Biro Riset Infobank (birI).
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0.05%
to get liquidity
3% - 5% Or up
spread at
reduce
Bila lending rate turun ke 9% agar credit ↑
Can Banks maintain Costs have to be
4% - 6% ? Or has to
Cost of fund Cost of operation has to ↓ has to ↓
Deposit Rate ↓
Banks compete with Govt Bond Credit ↓
NIM 4% - 6%
Costs:
8% - 10%
Lending Rate: 12% - 14%
Profit Margin
Risk Premium (Risk of Default)
Cost of fund 5% - 6%
Time Deposit 8% - 9%
Cost of operation 3% - 4%
Overhead Cost 2.5% - 3% GWM Fee
0.11% OJK Fee
LPS Fee 0.2%
Cash Fee 0.07%
Indonesia Interest Rates
Saving Deposit 2%
Sumber: perbanas
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Jika lending rate dipaksi ke 9% (single digit) dan bank ingin Mempertahankan NIM dalam range 4% - 6%, maka Cost of fund/ Deposit Rate harus turun ke 3% - 5%. APAKAH MUNGKIN?
Cost of operation
3% - 4%
Banks’ Costs:
8% - 10%
Cost of Fund:
5% - 6%
NIM
4% - 6%
Lending Rate:
12% - 14%
Sumber: Perbanas
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Struktur DPK, Bank BUKU 1,2 Dananya Mahal
Sumber: OJK (Statistik Perbankan Indonesia)
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RAPOR PERBANKAN, LDR Mulai Mentok , , , ,
Sumber: OJK (Statistik Perbankan Indonesia)
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DUNIA SUDAH BERUBAH, BISNIS JUGA BERUBAH
15
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MASA DEPAN PERBANKAN
16
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Sumber Pertumbuhan Ke Depan: E-Commerce Deloitte (2015) dalam “UKM Pemicu Kemajuan Indonesia” menyatakan bahwa: • Penggandaan tingkat penetrasi broadband dan keterlibatan UKM secara digital dapat
meningkatkan pertumbuhan ekonomi Indonesia sebesar 2% - yang dibutuhkan u/ mencapai target pertumbuhan ekonomi 7% untuk menjadi negara berpenghasilan menengah 2025.
• Keuntungan penggunaan teknologi digital bagi UKM adalah: 1. kenaikan pendapatan hingga 80%, 1.5 kali lebih mungkin meningkatkan kesempatan kerja, 17 kali lebih inovatif, menjadi lebih kompetitif secara internasional.
• Arah kebijakan yang diusulkan: meningkatkan akses broadband, membantu semua bisnis menjadi bisnis digital, memperluas akses pembiayaan, memperluas layanan e-government, serta akses ke pembayaran elektronik.
Sumber: Bank Indonesia
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6 BANK
(1)
88 BANK
(2)
23 BANK
(3)
1 BANK
(4)
TIDAK ADA (5)
PROFIL GCG BANK UMUM
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BCA BRI MANDIRI MANTAP BANK
BCA SYARIAH
BANK NOBU
BANK-BANK YANG NILAI KOMPOSIT GCG 1 ATAU SAMGAT BAIK
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LOW 4 BANK
LOW TO MODERATE
76 BANK
MODERATE 21 BANK
MODERATE TO HIGH 1
BANK
HIGH 1 BANK
PROFIL RISIKO BANK UMUM
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Profil risiko 1
mantap
CTBC IND ROYAL BANK
JB MORGAN
BANK-BANK YANG NILAI PROFIL RISIKO 1 ATAU SANGAT BAIK
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DAMPAK PENERAPAN GCG DAN PROFILE RISIKO
HARUSNYA PENGELOLAAN LEBIH BAIK MITIGASI RISIKO LEBIH AWAL
OPERATION COST NAIK PROSES PENGAMBILAN KEPUTUSAN LEBIH PANJANG
MENGURANGI BPR
PENGUATAN BPR
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EFISIENSI
TEKNOLOGI TEPAT GUNA
PROSES YANG CEPAT
PENDEKATAN PERSONAL
WILAYAH TERTENTU
MENUJU COMMUNITY BANK DENGAN FOKUS UMKM
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Terima kasih