data cabling classification
DESCRIPTION
huong dan cac he thong day DataTRANSCRIPT
Installed CablingInstalled Cabling- forecast to 2005 -- forecast to 2005 -
Alan FlatmanAlan FlatmanPrincipal ConsultantPrincipal Consultant
LAN Technologies UKLAN Technologies UK
AcknowledgementsAcknowledgementsAcknowledgementsAcknowledgements
This study was commissioned by Cisco Systems.
Base cabling market data was provided by BSRIA.
Big Questions
What kind of cabling for 10GBASE-T?
1. Where are we today in terms of cabling?
2. If 10GBASE-T becomes an approved 802.3project, what will the installed cabling baselook like when it is likely to be approved(early 2006)?
Market Data
1. Cable types by Category/Class
2. Installation trends BC to 2005
3. National & regional variations
4. Global installed base to 2005
Data Sources
BSRIABSRIA
• Building Services Researchand Information Association
• Cabling research since 1987
• 37 countries forecast to 2005
• Cat segmentation by country
Cabling IndustryCabling Industry
• providing replacement data
• 10 suppliers being surveyed(owning 60% market share)
• consultants also surveyed
• replacement rate guide now /detailed data in March 2003
Types of Copper CablingTypes of Copper Cabling
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
1 10 100 1000 MHz MHz MHz MHz
NEXTdB
Ins LossdB/100m
Cable Insertion Loss & NEXT
Cat 7
Cat 5
Cat 6
Cat 3
Cat 5e
Channel Configuration
Equipment Cable
NIC
Fixed Horizontal Cable
Channel = 100m max
Consolidation Point
Work Area Cable
Floor Distributor
PatchCable
CP Cable
Outlets
Switchor hub
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
1 10 100 1000
Cat 7/Class F
Old Cat 5/ old Class D
Cat 3/Class C
Cat 6/Class E
Channel Insertion Loss & NEXT
MHz MHz MHz MHz
Cat 5e/new Class D
NEXTdB
Ins LossdB/100m
Channel Return Loss
-20
-18
-16
-14
-12
-10
-8
1 10 100 1000
dB
MHzMHzMHzMHz
Cat 7/Class F
Cat 5e/new Class D
Cat 6/Class E
Cat 5/old Class D
no specification!no specification!
Installation TrendsInstallation Trends
Segmentation
• Outlets segmented by Category
• Outlets segmented by region:
» Western Europe 30% in 2002
» Eastern Europe
» North America 42% in 2002
» Latin America
» Asia-Pacific 22% in 2002
» Middle East
• Regional variations highlighted
0
10
20
30
40
5019
84
1985
1986
1987
1988
1989
1990
1991
1992
1993
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
C a t 7C a t 6C a t 5eC a t 5C a t 4C a t 3
Outlets(millions)
Annual Shipments: BC to 2005 Western Europe
Source: BSRIASource: BSRIA
actualforecast
Initial Observations
• Cat 3, Cat 4, Type 1, coax declinedafter introduction of Cat 5 cabling
• Operating life of structured cablingintended to be at least 15 years
• Actual life has been as low as 6 yrs
• At least 90% of 1980s cabling isforecast to be replaced by 2005;hence precluded from this analysis
0
10
20
30
40
50
1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005
C a t 7C a t 6C a t 5eC a t 5
Outlets(millions)
Annual Shipments: 1991 to 2005 Western Europe
Source: BSRIASource: BSRIA
actualforecast
Western European Trends
• Latest research points to approx 4%deeper recession from 2001 to 2002
• Approx 50% horiz’l cables screened» overall foil-screened cables in France
» pair-screened cables in Germ/Aus/Switz
• 85% Cat 7 in Germany/Austria/Switz
• Significant levels of Cat 7 cable usedfor Class E channels (perhaps 50%)
» equivalent to 18 million outlets
• Fibre outlets 1.5% of total shipments(BSRIA 2002)
0
1
2
3
4
1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005
Cat 7
Cat 6
Cat 5e
Cat 5
Outlets(millions)
Annual Shipments: 1991 to 2005 Eastern Europe
Source: BSRIASource: BSRIA
actualforecast
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005
C a t 7C a t 6C a t 5eC a t 5
Outlets(millions)
Annual Shipments: 1991 to 2005 North America
Source: BSRIASource: BSRIA
actualforecast
North American Trends
• Marked recession from 2000 to 2001
• 99% horizontal cables unscreened
• Early & aggressive market for Cat 6
• Fibre outlets 1.0% of total shipments(BSRIA 2002)
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005
C a t 7C a t 6C a t 5eC a t 5
Outlets(millions)
Annual Shipments: 1991 to 2005 Latin America
Source: BSRIASource: BSRIA
actualforecast
0
10
20
30
40
1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005
C a t 7C a t 6C a t 5eC a t 5
Outlets(millions)
Annual Shipments: 1991 to 2005 Asia-Pacific
Source: BSRIASource: BSRIA
actualforecast
Asia-Pacific Trends
• Earlier recession from 1999 to 2000
• 98% horizontal cables unscreened
• 40% outlets in China, strong growth
• Fibre outlets 0.5% of total shipments(BSRIA 2002)
0
1
2
1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005
C a t 7C a t 6C a t 5eC a t 5
Outlets(millions)
Annual Shipments: 1991 to 2005 Middle East
Source: BSRIASource: BSRIA
actualforecast
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
100
110
120
130
140
150
1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005
C a t 7C a t 6C a t 5eC a t 5
Outlets(millions)
Annual Shipments: 1991 to 2005 World-wide
Source: BSRIASource: BSRIA
actualforecast
Installed BaseInstalled Base
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
700
800
900
1000
1100
1200
1300
1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005
C a t 7C a t 6C a t 5eC a t 5
Outlets(millions)
Cumulative World-wide Shipments
Source: BSRIASource: BSRIA
actualforecast
Installed Base Model Assumptions
• 40% new shipments replace existing cabling» for cabling upgrades & building refurbishment
» some regional and industry sector variation
» world-wide trend from 1997, in/out of recession
• new shipments apportioned to Cat 5/Cat 5e:
1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005
Cat 5 40% 40% 40% 40% 35% 35% 35% 35% 35%
Cat 5e 5% 5% 5% 5% 5%
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
700
800
900
1000
1100
1200
1300
1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005
C a t 7C a t 6C a t 5eC a t 5
Outlets(millions)
Estimated World-wide Installed Base(40% new shipments replaces existing cabling)
Source: Source: LAN TechnologiesLAN Technologies(2003)(2003)
Estimated World-wide Installed Base
1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005
Cat 5 100% 97% 89% 77% 63% 51% 41% 31% 23% 15%
Cat 5e 0% 3% 10% 20% 31% 39% 45% 50% 51% 50%
Cat 6 0% 0% 1% 3% 6% 10% 13% 19% 26% 34%
Cat 7 0% 0% 0% 0% 0.1% 0.1% 0.2% 0.2% 0.3% 0.4%
Source: LAN Technologies (2003)Source: LAN Technologies (2003)
SummarySummary
FTTD0.4%
C at 6/C las s E13%
C at 7/C las s F0.2%
C at 5/o ld C las s D
41%
C at 5e/n ew C las s D
45%
Estimated World-wide Installed Base in Dec 2002
Source: LAN Technologies (2003)Source: LAN Technologies (2003)
total outlets680 million
Note: Ignored Cat 3(~7% installed base)
will inflate Cat 5 share
C at 7/C las s F0.4%
C at 5/o ld C las s D
15%
FTTD0.6%
C at 6/C las s E34%
C at 5e/n ew C las s D
50%
Estimated World-wide Installed Base in Dec 2005
Source: LAN Technologies (2003)Source: LAN Technologies (2003)
total outlets925 million
Note: Ignored Cat 3(~4% installed base)
will inflate Cat 5 share
Estimated World-wide Installed CablingGrowth from Jan 2003
(Based on Annual Growth Rates 2002-2005)
- 7%
+ 8%
+ 11%
-10
-5
0
5
10
15
Cat 5/old Class D Cat 5e/new Class D Cat 6/Class E
average% annualchange in
penetration of world-wideinstalled base
Source: LAN Technologies (2003)Source: LAN Technologies (2003)
Lifecycles19
84
1985
1986
1987
1988
1989
1990
1991
1992
1993
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
Cat 3
Cat 4
Cat 5
Cat 5e
Cat 6
Cat 7
10BASE-T
100BASE-TX
1000BASE-T
10GBASE-T
CFI STD
Ethernet Cabling Estimates at Birth
IEEE 802.3 Number Installed Outlets
Ethernet Type Std Approved Cat 5 Cat 5e Cat 6
100BASE-TX June 1995 100m - -
1000BASE-T June 1999 340m 65m 8m
10GBASE-T Jan 2006?? 136m 465m 320m
Source: LAN Technologies (2003)Source: LAN Technologies (2003)
Questions?Questions?