dave magua tee expectation survey " —""....tot pricing 1,,d„„ _ ; ems le the...
DESCRIPTION
Jan NAR eb 3/2012 Pending Home Sales Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sept Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb NAR 3/TRANSCRIPT
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Dave Magua
tee Expectation Survey
" —"" . ...tot Pricing 1,,d„„ _
;ems
le the Sarne, it Jest Costs Lee
Months Loan . . . t o paymcni
Amnon Rat. wail
70% Say Time to Buy is Now National Hotalno Sonny' 70% of respondents think it is a good We to buy a house. And of those 36% think it is a very good pr.' time to buy. di!
79 79 71 70
Beak Of America Pricing Forecast
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Existing Home Sales
12,575 Homes Sell Every Day and 8,300 Buyers Receive a Mortgage
NAR 3/2012
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Jan NAR eb 3/2012
Pending Home Sales
Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sept Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb
NAR 3/2012
70.0
80.0
90.0
100.0
110.0
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S&P Case Shiller 3/2012
S&P Case-Shiller Home Price Indices
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Federal Reserve
Mortgage Rates – 30 Year Fixed
1/01/2011 Today 3.75%
5.25%
4.75%
4.00%
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Case Shiller Pricing Index
2000 Jan 2003 TODAY
225.00
175.00
100.00
150.00
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Forbes 03/23/2012
Rent vs. Buy Best to Rent
2% “Certainly prices have continued to fall nationally, but rents have been rising so this would be the lowest price-to-rent ratio that we’ve seen.” Best to Buy
98% Jed Kolko, Trulia Chief Economist
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Marcus & Millichap 1/26/2012
Rents Rising Rapidly
* projected
National Average Rent
$1,000
$1200
$1100
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HousingWire 3/16/2012
Rents Rising Rapidly
“Vacancies in the home-rental
market will push average rental
rates up as much as 5%
by early 2013.”
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HOUSING ON THE REBOUND “If activity is sustained near present levels, existing-home sales will see their best performance in five years. Based on all of the factors in the current market, that’s what we’re expecting with sales rising 7 to 10 percent in 2012.”
Lawrence Yun NAR Chief Economist
NAR 03/2012
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Housing on the Rebound B. of A. Merrill calls housing bottom this year ·Bank of America Merrill Lynch says housing prices
will begin rising this year ·Inventories have fallen and policy moves have
helped stoke demand for homes, according to the firm
·Firm's long-term view unchanged, but now says housing recovery will
start earlier, be more gradual
MarketWatch 03/22/2012
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Housing on the Rebound “ Stabilization in U.S. housing fundamentals is
creating an attractive investment opportunity. Many of the ingredients are in place for continued improvement in housing. ”
- Goldman Sachs Group
BusinessWeek 3/29/2012
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Housing on the Rebound
We see stabilizing and then gradually increasing prices “
Pro Teck Valuation Services
Pro Teck 03/29/2012
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Housing on the Rebound "I believe we ’re very close to the inflection point.
People look at prices that are still coming down but all the other signs are flashing green . . .Homes for sale are about half what they were four years ago.
You could come up with a pretty bullish case."
Jamie Dimon, Morgan Chase CEO
CNBC 03/28/2012
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Housing on the Rebound
“ Even the housing market is showing some signs of shaking off the depression-
like conditions that have plagued it for much of the past few years. ”
- Frank Nothaft Freddie Mac Chief Economist
Freddie Mac 03/28/2012
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March 19th Cover
BARRON’S Magazine
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NAR, Wall Street Journal 03/29/2012
Investment and Vacation Homes
“Sales of investmentand vacation homessurged last year, thelatest evidence thatinvestors and higher income households aretaking advantage of lowhome prices to scoopup bargains.”
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DSNews 03/26/2012
More Investors Buying Short Sales
September 2011 February 2012
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HousingWire 3/2012
Short Sales Surging
2008
2009 2010
2011
2012
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Supply & Demand Lowest supply in 5 Years
Demand Is Steady
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NAR
Month’s Inventory of Homes for Sale
Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb
10 Months
9 Months
6 Months
4 Months
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OCC Mortgage Metrics Report 3/2012
4Q 2009 1Q 2010 2Q 2010 3Q 2010 4Q 2010 1Q 2011 2Q 2011 3Q 2011 4Q 2011
132,625
157,733
168,256
186,854 HIGH
LOW 95,067
116,060
Completed Foreclosures
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1Q 201 2Q 2011 3Q 2011 4Q 2011 OCC and OTS Mortgage Metrics Report 3/2012
Foreclosures in Process 1,350,000
1,200,000
1,000,000
4Q 2009 1Q 2010 2Q 2010 3Q 2010 4Q 2010 1Q 2011 2Q 2011 3Q 2011 4Q 2011
1st Q 2012 Will Increase
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Shadow Inventory Resolved in 2012
Foreclosure Sales 900K – 1M
Short Sales 500K
Principal Reductions 500K
HAMP Modifications 360K
Other Modifications 270K
REO-to-Rental Program 100,000
Housing Wire
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NAR
Percentage of Distressed Property Sales
Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb
0 %
20%
40%
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NAR
Percentage of Contract Failures 35%
20%
5%
Aug 2010 July 2011 Sept 2011 Oct 2011 Nov 2011 Dec 2011 Jan 2012 Feb 2012
“Contract failures – cancellations caused largely by declined mortgage applications or failures in loan underwriting from appraised values coming in below the negotiated price.”
31%33%
9%
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Home Price Expectations Survey 3/2012
4
Future Home Prices Average 3% Per Year
2012
0
3
2
- .72 1
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