david anderson, enterprise service planning – Масштабирование...
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Scaling the Benefits of Kanban
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Enterprise Services Planning
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You are part of a professional services business!
An ecosystem of professionals providing interdependent services, often with complex dependencies.
Professional Service organizations build intangible goods
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The challenge of professional services businesses
A constantly changing external environment has a ripple effect across your entire business ecosystem
Priorities change and required capability & service levels rise in response to competition, disruptive market innovation & changes in customer tastes
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The challenge of professional services businesses
Lack of alignment between Strategy and Capability is risky, & results in unpredictable, unsatisfactory outcomes
Risks are not adequately hedged, performance is volatile & untrustworthy. As a result managers cannot act & decide with confidence
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A Managers Dilemma
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What should we start next?
Will it be delivered when
we need it?
Do we have capacity to do everything we
need to do?
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How will dependencies
affect our ability to deliver?
How many activities should
we have running in parallel?
If we delay starting something, will the capacity be available
when we need it?
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Dem
and
ObservedCapability
Dem
and
Dem
and
ObservedCapability
ObservedCapability
ESP – Anticipating Demand, Allocating CapacityLooking downstream, you want the system to help you anticipate
and manage dependencies
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ESP – Anticipating Demand, Allocating CapacityDe
man
d
ObservedCapability
Dem
and
Dem
and
ObservedCapability
ObservedCapability
Looking upstream, you want the system to help you anticipate and
manage demand
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Dem
and
ObservedCapability
Dem
and
Dem
and
ObservedCapability
ObservedCapability
ESP – Anticipating Demand, Allocating Capacity
Combine the two, and across the organization you smooth flow end-to-
end and help keep demand in balance withoverall system capability
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Enterprise Services Planning
Enterprise Services Planning (ESP) is an enterprise-wide management solution that leverages Kanban* to improve each service within your business.
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Enterprise Services PlanningThe goal of Enterprise Services Planning
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Enterprise Services PlanningManufacturing
1947 – Kanban1964 & 1975 – MRP
Professional Services
2004 – Kanban2015 – ESP
ESP is “MRP for professional services”. ESP is for managing capacity & scheduling intangible work
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But first…
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Kanban 2.0
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Proto-Kanban(Emerging, Shallow, Low Maturity implementations)
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Aggregated Personal Kanban
Backlog
F
H
E
C A
TeamMember
G
D
Next Done3
In-progress
3
Joe
Peter
Steven
Joann
per person∞ ∞per personAt this level, we are still focused on organizing & managing people rather
than enabling people to self-organize around the work &
managing its flow
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O
P
R
N
M
L
J
Per Person WIP Limit
Done
F
H E
C
A
I
Pending
G
DGY
PB DE
MN
AB
Dev/Build/Test/Deploy
DevReady
GY
GY
PB
PB
MN
MN
DE
DE
ABAB
K
Bench
Specify
B
∞∞ ∞
Unbounded
Queue
DelayedWIP
At this level, we are focused on managing work and enabling people to self-
organize around it but we aren’t limiting WIP in the
system as a whole. Hence, service delivery will not be
predictable
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Aggregated Team Kanban
Done
Poolof
Ideas
FH E
C A
I
NextDeploy-
mentReady
GD
GYPB
DEMN
5 ∞
P1
AB
Ongoing
Development Testing
Done Ongoing Done
3 3
I am a buffer!
The clue is in my name – “… Ready”
I am buffering non-instant availability or activity with a
cyclical cadence
Infinite limits on done columns means that there really isn’t a kanban pull system present.
This style of proto-kanban controls multi-tasking but doesn’t limit workflow WIP
∞ ∞
Also known as “infinite done queues”
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Kanban Systems
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H
QP
OM
LK
J
I
Kanban can be represented with slots
Ideas
D
E
A
Engin-eeringReady
G
Ongoing
Development TestingDone
TestReady
F
B
CPullPull
*
UATDeploy-
mentReady
An empty slot signals pull
Pull
Pull
PullIPhysical slot is a kanban
The tickets on the board are not the kanban. Believing the tickets are the kanban is a common misconception
This board and the next two all look different but they all visualize the same
identical kanban system
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H
FF OM
NK
J
I
Using movable tokens as kanban is more flexible
Ideas
D
E
A
I
DevReady
G
Development TestingTest
Ready
F B
C
UATReleaseReady
In-progressLegend
Done
Blocked - issue
Blocked - defect
Physical token such as a magnet is a kanban
Colors are used to denote state
Moving done items down below a line is an optional enhancement
seen in some implementations
Override on kanban limit introduces additional
“blocked – issue” kanban
People working on blocked item “A”
have been redirected to work
on item “I”
Using physical slots in the previous example has been shown to create
inertia to modification & improvement
Using movable tokens allows for WIP limits to be easily modified and provides a natural signal token
mechanism
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H
FF FF FF J
I
Declaring a kanban quantity is even simpler
Ideas
D
E
A
I
Engin-eeringReady
G
5Ongoing
Development Testing
Done
3 3
TestReady
5
F
B
CPull
PullThese are the virtual kanban
*
These are the virtual kanbanThese are the virtual kanbanThese WIP limits serve the function of the magnets or slots
This board has even less maintenance overhead than the magnet board
UATDeploy-
mentReady
∞ ∞
A “virtual kanban” pull signal is created by subtracting the column
number from tickets currently in the column
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Commitment is deferred
H
EC A
D
Commitment point
FF FF FF F
G
Pull
Wish to avoid aborting after commitment
IdeasDev
Ready5
Ongoing
Development Testing
Done3 3
TestReady
5
UATReleaseReady
∞ ∞
We are committing to getting started. We are certain we want
to take delivery.
Ideas remain optional and (ideally) unprioritized
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Discovery Kanban
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Discovery Kanban Prepares OptionsReady
forEngin-eering
F
H
I
Comm-itted
D
4 Ongoing
Development
Done3
JK
12
Testing
Verification3
L
Commitment point
4 -
Requi-rementsAnalysis
2412 -
RiskAnalysis
4824 -
Poolof
Ideas
∞
Min & Max limitsensure sufficientoptions are alwaysavailable
Committed WorkOptions
Discarded
OReject
P Q
$$$ spent acquiring options $$$ spent converting
options
Embedded Options
Done
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Roles
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Kanban Roles Are EmergingReady
forEngin-eering
F
H
I
Comm-itted
D
4 Ongoing
Development
Done3
JK
12
Testing
Verification3
L
Commitment point
4 -
Requi-rementsAnalysis
2412 -
RiskAnalysis
4824 -
Poolof
Ideas
∞
Service Delivery ManagerService Request Manager
Discarded
OReject
P Q
Marshals Options Manages Flow
Done
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Revised Definition of theKanban Method
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The Evolutionary Change Principles
1. Start with what you do now Understanding current processes, as actually practiced Respecting existing roles, responsibilities & job titles
2. Gain agreement to pursue improvement through evolutionary change
3. Encourage acts of leadership at all levels
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The Service Delivery Principles
1. Understand and focus on your customers’ needs and expectations
2. Manage the work, let people self-organize around it3. Your organization is an ecosystem of interdependent
services steered by its policies, reflect regularly on their effectives and improve them
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General Practices
1. Visualize (with a kanban board 看板 )
2. Limit work-in-progress (with kanban かんばん )
3. Manage flow4. Make policies explicit5. Implement feedback loops6. Improve collaboratively, evolve experimentally
(using models & the scientific method)
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The Kanban Lens
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StrategyReview
RiskReview
Monthly
ServiceDeliveryReview
Bi-WeeklyQuarterly
KanbanMeeting
Daily
OperationsReview
Monthly
Replenishment/Commitment
Meeting
Weekly
DeliveryPlanningMeeting
Per delivery cadence
change change
change
change
change
change
change change
change
info
info
info
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info
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change info
Kanban Cadences
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Specific Practices for Service Delivery
1. Visualize service delivery workflows2. Implement virtual kanban systems3. Manage flow within & across workflows4. Make your decision framework, risk management
policies & boundaries of empowerment explicit5. Implement the Kanban Cadences6. Improve collaboratively, evolve experimentally
(using fitness criteria metrics, and model-driven improvements based upon an understanding of risks, variability, constraints, sources of delay, queuing theory, real
option theory, transaction & coordination costs)
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Are we doing Kanban or not?
It isn’t a question of evaluating practice usage but rather a question of intent …
Do you intend to use visualization & kanban systems to drive a focus on sustained fitness for purpose?
Do you view your organization as a network of services and seek to improve the balance of capability against demand &
customer expectations?
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Kanban Litmus Test
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Revised STATIK(Systems Thinking Approach to Introducing Kanban)
This process tends to be
iterative
Identify Services. For each service…
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Definition ofEnterprise Services Planning
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Enterprise Services Planning3 Organizational Steps
Foster a culture focused on continual
fit-for-purpose service delivery
Seeing Services
“Kanban” each service
Feedback Loop System
Identify interdependent services in your organization
Use the STATIK method to create a Kanban system for each service
Implement a set of responsive feedback loops
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Enterprise Services PlanningStep 1: Seeing Services
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Enterprise Services PlanningStep 2: Kanban the Services
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Enterprise Services PlanningStep 3: Responsive Feedback Loops
StrategyReview
RiskReview
Monthly
ServiceDeliveryReview
Bi-WeeklyQuarterly
KanbanMeeting
Daily
OperationsReview
Monthly
Replenishment/Commitment
Meeting
Weekly
DeliveryPlanningMeeting
Per delivery cadence
change change
change
change
change
change
change change
change
info
info
info
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infoinfo
info
info
change info
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Illustrates 4 Functions of Management in ESP
StrategyReview
RiskReview
Monthly
ServiceDeliveryReview
Bi-WeeklyQuarterly
KanbanMeeting
Daily
OperationsReview
Monthly
Replenishment/Commitment
Meeting
Weekly
DeliveryPlanningMeeting
Per delivery cadence
change change
change
change
change
change
change change
change
info
info
info
info
info
infoinfo
info
info
change info
Focus on Service Delivery
Driving improvement…
Higher level management function
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Enterprise Services PlanningAchieve “Fitness for Purpose”
+
These must be balanced to deliver what your customers need and expect: to be “fit for purpose”
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Enterprise Services Planning6 Planning Activities
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Enterprise Services PlanningFit for purpose one service at a time
Using ESP, run an effective, risk managed business.
Align enterprise strategy with capability.
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Risk Profiling
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Visualize Risks to provide Scheduling Information
TS
Market Risk
CR
Spoil
Diff
Lifecycle
Cost of Delay
Tech Risk
Delay Impact
NewMid
Cow
Expedite
FDStd
Intangible
ELEMaj. Cap.
Disc
Unknown SolnKnown but not us
Done it beforeCommodity
Risk profile for a work item or project
Outside:Commit Early
Inside:Commit Late
Items with the same shape carry the same risks. They cannot be prioritized or sequenced. From a group of items with
the same risk profile pick whichever ones you like.
It is also wise to hedge risk by allocating capacity in the system for items of different risk profiles.
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Custom Profile Contains Narrative
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Forecasting
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Lead Time & Weibull Distributions
Lead time histograms observed to be Weibull distributions typically with shape parameter 1.0 < k < 2.0
This example is a Weibull distribution with a scale parameter equal to 65 and shape parameter equal to 1.4
Outliers with known special causes at 87 & 105 are omitted from the “best fit” curve
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Chan
ge R
eque
sts
SLA (customer expectation or fitness criteria)60 days
Use Lead Time Distribution to EvaluateService Delivery Effectiveness
22-150 dayspread of variation
85%on-time
15% lateDue DatePerformance(DDP)
Predictability
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Forecasting methods
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Little’s Law provides simple but effective medium to long term forecasts
Delivery Rate(from the kanban system) System Lead Time
WIP=
Little’s Law uses the mean lead
time
Mean is strongly affected by the tail on the lead
time distribution
Chan
ge R
eque
sts
MeanTailMedian
Mode
Control the shape of the distribution by managing flow and avoid extending tail
of the distribution
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Scheduling
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When should we start something?
impa
ct
When we need it
85th percentile
Ideal StartHere
Commitment point
timeJan10
Nov11
If we start too early, we forgo the option and opportunity to do something else that may
provide value.
If we start too late we risk incurring the cost of delay
If we pull the work into our kanban system on Nov 11 we
have a 6 out of 7 chance of on-time delivery
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We can study sensitivity to different start dates
impa
ct
When we need it
50th percentile
Later StartHere
Commitment point
timeJan10
Nov25
If we start as late as November 25 we only have a 50% chance
of on-time delivery
However, the cost of delay incurred if we deliver within 60
days is relatively small. We have an 85% chance of achieving delivery with acceptable cost of delay
85th percentile
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What is the latest we could start?
impa
ct
When we need it
0th percentile
Very latestart
Commitment point
timeJan10
Dec19
If we start as late as December 19 we have 0% chance of on-
time delivery
We have about a 10% chance of a total loss delivering the
promotion beyond the expiry date of the opportunity
85th percentiletotal loss
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To be certain of delivery without incurring any cost of delay is expensive
impa
ct
When we need it
98th percentile
Early Start
Commitment point
timeJan10
Aug11
If we are conservative and do not wish to carry any risk of late delivery or any risk of
incurring an opportunity cost of delay, then we must start as
early as August 13th.
We must commit to our Spring Break 2015 promotion during
Summer 2014!!!
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Window of opportunity
impa
ct
When we need itEarliest Start
timeJan10
Aug11
Latest viable
start
Dec19
Optimal Start
Nov11
On August 11st the item becomes available for selection
at Kanban system replenishment.
The ideal time to start is November 11th.
After December 19th our option to deliver this item expires and
we would discard it from our pool.
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Summary
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Enterprise Services Planning Curriculum
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Dem
and
ObservedCapability
Dem
and
Dem
and
ObservedCapability
ObservedCapability
ESP – Anticipating Demand, Allocating CapacityLooking downstream, you want the system to help you anticipate
and manage dependencies
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ESP – Anticipating Demand, Allocating CapacityDe
man
d
ObservedCapability
Dem
and
Dem
and
ObservedCapability
ObservedCapability
Looking upstream, you want the system to help you anticipate and
manage demand
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Dem
and
ObservedCapability
Dem
and
Dem
and
ObservedCapability
ObservedCapability
ESP – Anticipating Demand, Allocating Capacity
Combine the two, and across the organization you smooth flow end-to-
end and help keep demand in balance withoverall system capability
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Enterprise Services Planning“Making Better Use of Kanban at Scale”
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Thank you!
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About
David Anderson is an innovator in management of 21st Century businesses that employ creative people who “think for a living” . He leads a training, consulting, publishing and event planning business dedicated to developing, promoting and implementing new management thinking & methods…He has 30+ years experience in the high technology industry starting with computer games in the early 1980’s. He has led software organizations delivering superior productivity and quality using innovative methods at large companies such as Sprint and Motorola.David defined Enterprise Services Planning and originated Kanban Method an adaptive approach to improved service delivery. His latest book, published in June 2012, is, Lessons in Agile Management – On the Road to Kanban.David is Chairman of Lean Kanban Inc., a business operating globally, dedicated to providing quality training & events to bring Kanban and Enterprise Services Planning to businesses who employ those who must “think for a living.”
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Upstream Kanban emerged in several locations in Paris, France and Belgium circa 2010. Discovery Kanban is an evolution of Upstream Kanban pioneered by Patrick Staeyert
Risk profile courtesy of BazaarVoice
The 2nd Edition of the Kanban Method definition owes much to the perseverance of Andy Carmichael and contributions from Mike Burrows, Alexei Zheglov and Klaus Leopold
Acknowledgements
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Curriculum
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Enterprise Services Planning
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ESP I – Enterprise Services
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ESP II – Project & Capacity Planning
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ESP III – Portfolio Management
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