david street tree-rings: records of the past, insights into the future
TRANSCRIPT
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David Street
Tree-rings: records of the past, insights into the future
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Societal change
Tree rings and….
Water
Fire
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Leonardo da Vinci (1500 AD)
“Rings in the branches of sawed trees show the number of years and, according to their thickness, the years which were more or less dry. Thus, they reflect the individual worlds to which they belong, in the north [of Italy] they are much thicker than in the south.”
Aristotle (350 BC)
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Andrew Ellicott Douglass 1867-1962Founder of Modern Dendrochronology
& Laboratory of Tree-Ring Research
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Environmentally stressful year
Environmentally beneficial years
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But it’s not just counting rings!
False rings Missing Rings
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A
B
C
ABC
1900 1910
1920 1930
18901880187018601850
Crossdating: The Basic Principle of Dendrochronology
<<<<<<<“Bridging” back in time<<<<<<<
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What happened to the Anasazi? Why did they leave and where did they go?
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Excavating specimen HH-39, which “bridged the gap” – Show Low, Arizona, July 22, 1929
floating chronology
living tree chronology
HH-39
1200700 1300 present
}“gap”
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“Secrets of the Southwest Solved by Talkative Tree Rings”, by A. E. Douglass, National Geographic magazine, December 1929
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Population estimates from tree-ring dated dwellings indicate nearly total abandonment of the Colorado Plateau by AD 1300, while a major influx of people occurred in northern New Mexico at this time.
From Dean, Doelle, & Orcutt 1994
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Water: How variable are our water supplies?
Ex – Colorado River Compact
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Tree-rings guide water management
Colorado River at Lees Ferry
Gaged (natural flow) record, 1906-1930
http://treeflow.info/
Colorado River Compact Signed
in 1922
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Colorado River at Lees Ferry
Gaged (natural flow) record, 1906-1963
http://treeflow.info/
Tree-rings guide water management
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Colorado River at Lees Ferry
Gaged (natural flow) record, 1906-2004
http://treeflow.info/
Colorado River Compact Signed
in 1922
Tree-rings guide water management
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Tree-ring reconstructed flow of the Colorado River
(1500 – 2000)
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Fire
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Fire scars
Tree rings provide a remarkable record of historical fires
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Monument Canyon Research Natural Area, Fire Scar Fire History (Don Falk)
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Ponderosa Pine
Fire Frequency: HighFire Severity: Low
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Fire “thinned” the small trees and kept the forest open
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RAILROADS led to > 5 million sheep and 1.5 million cattle in New Mexico by 1890
Very clearly, the first reason for reduction of widespread surface fires was the introduction very large numbers of sheep, cows and horses.
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After fires stopped the density of the dry conifer forests increased dramatically
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Increased forest density and connectivity: = greater risk of large high severity fires
1935 2005
Santa Fe Watershed, New Mexico
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Photo: C.D. Allen
Now these dense conifer forests burn high severity
Tree-ring fire histories provide strong evidence in support of reducing forest density and restoring low
severity fire regimes
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“History never repeats itself,
but it does tend to rhyme.” Mark Twain
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Tree-ring sampling
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Increment cores:
1. tree age
2. climate reconstruction
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Ponderosa pine fire history (1296-2004)
18421685
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Ponderosa Pine
Fire Frequency: HighFire Severity: Low
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Conclusions• Fire historically burned across gradients of elevation, forest types
and fire severity• MC/aspen – mixed severity fire regime with small (<100 ha) stand-
replacing patches immediately adjacent to low severity patches• Spruce - last fire (1685) was largely stand-replacing (1200 ha, 93%
of sampled area), recorded as fire scars throughout the MC and Pipo, and burned during a severe, regional drought (PDSI = - 6.92)
• The drought-fire relationship suggests that if droughts become more frequent and severe, as predicted, the probability of large, severe fire occurrence will increase
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Is high severity fire a natural part of the Gila Wilderness?
Ellis Margolis
Laboratory of Tree-Ring Research, University of Arizona
Tucson, Arizona
Unknown fire, 8/23/2003
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Professor Malcolm Hughes
Northern Hemisphere Temperature
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Growth release following 1685 fire
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Ponderosa pine tree-ring fire history
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SW US - precipitation sensitivity
• Water is generally a limiting factor• Narrow ring = less precipitation• Wide ring = more precipitation
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Pipo Fire Scars
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• Recorded by fire scars at 68% of fire scar plots• Largely stand-replacing in the spruce-dominated forest• Worst drought yr in over 1000 years; PDSI = – 6.92!
(Cook et al 2004)
1685 fire