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IT’S ALL ABOUT MONEY, HONEY!

AnalystPrayesh Jain 5648 9151([email protected])

DealingSandeepa Arora 5669 3200Biren Patel 5677 5900

September 2005

DCM Shriram Industries Ltd

Sweet times ahead

India Infoline Research can be also accessed on Bloomberg (Code IILL), Thomson First Call and ISI Emerging markets.

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September 26, 2005 2

DCM Shriram Industries Ltd - Sweet times aheadIndiaInfolinecom

Share Price Chart

Shareholding pattern

Source: Company data, India Infoline estimates

Recommendation : BUY

CMP : Rs120

Target Price : Rs203

52 Week H / L : Rs140.5 / 33.05

Market Cap : Rs1,910mn

Avg. volume : 78,704

BSE code : 523369

Reuters code : DCMI.BO

Bloomberg code : DCMSI IN Equity

Shareholders %Holding

Promoters 30.8

Institutions 18.9

Public and Others 50.3

We initiate coverage on DCM Shriram Industries Ltd (DSIL) with a BUYrecommendation and a 12-month price target of Rs203, an upside of69.2% from the current levels. DSIL is a diversified company with presencein segments such as sugar, rayon tyre fabric, alcohol and chemicals. It isexpanding its sugarcane crushing capacity from 8,500tcd to 12,000tcd innext two years. DSIL is amongst 4 manufacturers of rayon tyre cord fabricin the world and this segment provides a stable revenue stream to thecompany. DSIL is merging with itself its group company Durala OrganicsLtd (DOL), which is into manufacturing of specialty chemicals used asintermediates in agro chemical products. The company also stands to gainon interest cost through the debt restructuring carried out in FY05.

ØAfter a sharp fall in production in the last two sugar seasons, the Indiansugar industry is likely to stage a comeback with production expected toincrease to 18mn tons from 12.6mn tons. However, steady growth in demandand commitment to export in lieu of imported raw sugar will keep the stock toconsumption ratio lower than the current levels of 0.2x (0.6x in 2002-03).Consequently, the sugar prices, after witnessing a sharp run-up in last twoyears, are likely to remain firm at current levels. With DSIL increasing itscapacity, the company stands to gain significantly.

ØThe company carried out debt restructuring in FY05, which led to a reductionin interest cost for the company from 17-17.5% in FY04 to 10-11% currentlyand a further reduction to 9-9.5% is likely in FY06. Repayment of debt andimproved operational performance will lead to an improvement in D/E ratiofrom 0.94x in FY05 to 0.5x in FY07.

ØThe merger with DOL would lead to a lot of synergies as even DSIL operatesin the same segment. The benefits out of the merger would be lower staffcosts, better bargaining power with both suppliers and customers, higheroperating leverage, etc. However, the swap ratio of 1:10 will also lead to adilution of close to 15% in DSIL’s equity.

(Rs Mn) FY05 FY06 P FY07 P CAGR (%)Net Sales 5,504 6,911 7,640 17.8yoy growth (%) 25.6 10.6APAT 292 401 521 33.5yoy growth (%) 37.2 29.8EPS (Rs) 18.4 25.2 32.7P/E 6.5 4.8 3.7ROCE (%) 20.3 25.1 26.4RONW (%) 15.1 17.2 18.2

Key Financials

ValuationsThe fair price on replacement value for the company is Rs203 per share. Withan EV of Rs3.6bn for FY06P, the stock is trading at a steep discount of 28.4%to replacement value, providing a potential upside of 69.2%. The stock is alsoavailable at an attractive P/E of 4x on FY07P earnings.



Ø Expansion of sugar production capacity… leveraging on firm realizationsDSIL currently has a sugarcane crushing capacity of 8,500tcd and the segmentcontributed more than 60% of the company’s revenue (merged entity) inFY05. The company is in the midst of enhancing its capacity to 12,000tcd byOctober 2006. The expansion will happen in two phases. In the first phasethe capacity will be expanded to 11,000tcd by October 2005 and in thesecond phase to 12,000tcd in FY07. The expansion will be through a brownfieldproject and will involve an outlay of Rs600mn to be funded by a mix of debtand internal accruals in the ratio of 1.5:1.

We expect the sugar prices to remain firm for the next one and a half year onback of strained demand-supply scenario for sugar in the country. With thefestive season round the corner, next two months are likely to witness volatilemovement in prices with an upward bias. However, over the next two yearsthe prices are likely to stabilize at around Rs17.5/kg levels. With majorcapacities coming up in Uttar Pradesh in the next couple of years andMaharashtra likely to scale up its production, post FY07 the sugar pricesmight soften.

Investment Rationale

Chart: Domestic Sugar Prices

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Source: CMIE

Indian Sugar Industry scenario

After witnessing two dreadful sugar production seasons (2003-04 13.9mntons and 2004-05 12.6mn tons), the industry is set to stage a comebackwith production expected to increase to 17.5-18mn tons. This is mainly onaccount of the following factorsq Improvement in acreage in the country for sugarcane by 9% over last

year.q Above normal monsoons.q Government’s initiatives to improve the ailing industry like allowing duty

free imports of raw sugar, providing finance at substantially lower interestrates, etc.

q With improved cash flows for the sugar manufacturers on back of spiralingsugar prices over the last 18 months, the companies have paid off theold arrears. This has led to improved confidence level amongst farmersleading them to revert back to cultivation of sugarcane. Another factorthat has led to improvement in the acreage is the likelihood of increasein SAP in Uttar Pradesh and SMP for rest of the country.



Table: Capacity additions in UP (tcd)Company Current By Oct 05 By Oct 06Bajaj Hindustan 31,000 53,000 95,000Balrampur Chini 29,000 40,000 47,000DCM Shriram Inds 8,500 11,000 12,000Simbhaoli Sugar 11,300 - 15,500Dwarikesh Sugar 6,500 15,000Oudh Sugar 17,250 18,250 20,750Mawana sugar 17,000 20,000 31,000DCM Shriram cons 11,000 14,000 33,000Triveni Engg. & Inds 25,250 36,500 -Upper Ganges Sugar 13,500 20,500

Source: Company reports

Table: Demand-supply scenario in the Indian Sugar Industry

(Mn tons) 2002-03 2003-04 2004-05 2005-06(E) 2006-07(E)Opening stock 11.3 11.6 8.5 4.1 3.1Production 20.1 13.9 12.6 18.0 19.0Imports (raw sugar) 0.0 0.8 1.5 - -Total supply 31.4 26.3 22.6 22.1 22.1Offtake Domestic 18.3 17.5 18.5 19.0 20.0Imported 0.0 - - - -Exports 1.5 0.3 - - -Total offtake 19.8 17.8 18.5 19.0 20.0Closing Stock 11.6 8.5 4.1 3.1 2.1Closing Stock to Sales Ratio 0.6 0.5 0.2 0.2 0.1

Source: Industry reports

Further under the advance licensing scheme, the country also needs to export2.5mn tons of processed sugar in the next couple of years against a similarquantity of import of raw sugar over the past two years. So the firm prices arelikely to continue for next couple of years.

q Quite a few sugar manufacturers in UP are expanding their capacities insignificant proportions. These expansions are on back of lower canedrawal (mid 30’s) in the state on account of not enough capacity availableto crush the cane. Further, the state Government is also providing capitalsubsidies to expansions involving an outlay of more than Rs5bn.

q The co-operative sector of Maharashtra, which has been ailing for sometimenow on back of surging arrears, is set to stage a comeback with the stategovernment announcement of paying Rs2.9bn towards the second roundof arrear payments. The state Government earlier finished its first roundof arrear payments to the tune of Rs3bn. Further, it has also approvedpayment of Rs950mn to 41 sugar mills in the state towards pre-crushingseason loan guarantee. The only concern for the state is the fact that therecent flood is likely to reduce the yield by 15-20%.

q Added attraction for sugar companies with cogeneration capacity is theconcept of carbon trading, as the electricity generated (if exported to thestate grid) by use of bagasse is environmentally friendly.



Global Sugar Industry scenarioq The tightness in demand-supply scenario exists in the international market

as well, as the total sugar availability was at 183.5mn tons in 2004-05against a demand of 186.7mn tons in the same period.

Chart: International demand supply scenario for sugar

165.0

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2005-06 E

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Production Demand Stock/Cons

Source:USDA

q The trend is likely to continue in 2005-06, as EU has decided to phase outthe huge subsidy it offers, leading to almost 6mn tons of sugar disappearingfrom international trade. To worsen the situation, even Thailand on back ofpoor crop this year is likely to decrease its export quantity by around 25-30%.

q On back of surging crude oil prices, the demand for ethanol blended petrol isescalating in Brazil. Consequently, sugar manufacturers in the country areshifting significant amount of their sugar production capacity to ethanolmanufacturing capacity leading to a further fall in availability of sugar forinternational trade.

Ø Ethanol supplies to OMCs to improve performance for the alcohol segmentThe Government of India initiated the 5% blending of ethanol with petrol inOctober 2003. However, the plan continued to remain unimplemented sincethen on account of the following factors:

q Soaring prices of ethanol q Sharp fall in sugarcane cultivation in 2003-04 and 2004-05

GOI now has taken a strong stance that the 5% blending scheme will beimplemented in 9 states and 4 union territories. With oil marketing companiesalready placing orders with the manufacturers, the total demand for ethanolwill then be at 300mn litres per annum. The price at which the contractshave been signed is in the range of Rs19-19.5 per litre. The current capacityis enough to meet this demand. However, Government plans to implementthe rule across the country in the next fiscal. This will lead to an additional500mn litres per annum demand for ethanol. Further, it is also planning toincrease the blending rate from 5% to 10% in the near future. This will leadto increased demand and surging prices for ethanol.

DSIL has a large distillery capacity of 45,000kl per year and currently operatesat above 60% capacity utilization. The company produces rectified spirit,industrial alcohol, ENA and anhydrous alcohol (ethanol). Currently, ethanolforms a minisculeportion of the production. However, with the ethanolblending program spreading its wings across the country the contributioncould surge significantly.



ØMerger with Durala Organics Ltd to add valueDSIL is merging with itself its group company, Daurala Organics Ltd (DOL).DOL was established in 1994 to produce high value/high technology drugintermediates. To have access to the top-notch technology the companysetup affiliations with three European companies.

The plant is spread over an area of 300 acres and consists of:q Plants for the manufacture of Benzaldehyde, DL Phenly Glycine, D (-)

Phenyl Glycine and its derivatives, Sodium / Potassium Phenyl Acetate and Meta Phenoxy Benzaldehyde.

q Comprehensive and extensive utilities.q An Incinerator for solid wastes and a liquid Effluent Treatment Plant.q Very well equipped QC and R&D laboratories.q A very flexibly designed plant to be responsive to changing segments of

products and customers

In FY05, the company clocked a turnover of Rs1bn and a PBIDT of Rs120mn.The company has an equity base of Rs219mn. With the merger taking itseffect from January 1, 2005, the chemicals division of DSIL contributed13.7% to the total revenue for FY05. The board has approved a 1:10 ratiofor the merger ie for every 10 shares held in DOL a shareholder would get1 share of DSIL. This would lead to a dilution in DSIL’s equity to the tune ofRs22mn ie less than 15% dilution.

The merger will lead to a lot of synergies such as higher operating leverage,lower staff costs, better bargaining power with customers and suppliers,etc over the foreseeable future.

ØStability from industrial fibres segmentThe industrial fibres segment of the company clocked a turnover of over Rs1.4bin FY05, which accounted for over 27.5% of the total revenue for the company.The current capacity in the segment is at 14,000tons per annum and isoperating at above 70% utilization. The company produces rayon tyre cordand the entire produce is sold in the international market. The fabric producedby the company is used only in the sporting segment. Since these tyres arehigh end products and safety is a key issue here, switching over to a newsupplier involves high cost. The demand for the fabric has been growing at asteady rate of 8-10%.

These tyres employ a technology whereby the vehicle can run for a prettylong distance even after encountering a puncture. The technology currentlyis at a nascent stage with only Europe using it. As and when US initiates useof the technology the potential for growth in demand is huge. However, it willtake some time for the opportunity to materialize. Currently, there are fourplayers producing the rayon fabric used in the technology across the globe.The total capacity of the four players is around 67,000 tons per annum cateringto a total demand of around 60,000 tons per annum. Out of the four, twoplayers are in India (Century and DSIL).



DSIL has a long-term understanding with all the leading tyre manufacturersin the international market such as Goodyear, Pirelli, Michelin, Dunlop andBridgestone and has been supplying to them for over 10 years now. Goodyearafter taking over Dunlop now contributes to around 25% of the segment’srevenues, Bridgestone is the largest customer with 35% of the revenues,Pirelliand Michelin together contribute about 25% and the rest is contributedby small scale converters.

ØDebt restructuring… reducing interest burdenAt the end of Q1 FY06, the company had an outstanding debt of Rs1.5bn(merged entity) on the books, as against Rs2.5bn at the end of FY04. Thefall was mainly on account of the debt restructuring (CDR) carried out by thecompany. As per the CDR, the financial institutions not only waived off theinterest amount but also provided a hair cut on the principal amounts. As aresult the interest cost for the company has decreased from 17.5%-18%during last year to 10-11% currently. The company is looking forward tofurther reduction in interest cost to 9.5% in coming quarters.

ØAttractive Valuations

Valuation using replacement cost

Particulars (Rs Mn)Sugar 2,357Chemicals (DOL + Chemical Division of DSIL) 1,500Rayon Fabric Business 800Total Replacement Cost 4,657EV (FY06 P) 3,335Discount to Replacement Value (%) (28.4)Fair Price 203.0CMP 120Upside 69.2

Source: India Infoline research



Ø Delay in capital expansion programThe company is expanding its sugar manufacturing capacity from 8,500tcdcurrently to 12,000tcd in two years time. The outlay for the same is Rs600mn.Any delay in the expansion could lead to a subdued performance as comparedto our estimates. Further, any cost overrun can impact the cash flow for thecompany.

Ø Sugar industry… highly regulated sectorThe sugar industry in India is highly regulated with government controllingthe release mechanism and also the sugarcane prices. Any policy in favor ofthe farmers to increase the cane prices significantly could hamper theoperating margins and could lead to a lower profitability than our estimates.

Concerns



DCM GroupThe erstwhile DCM group was split up in 1990 to form the following structurewith absolute no cross-holdings. All the group companies are independently

Company Background

DCM Shriram Industries LtdDCM Shriram Industries Ltd. (DSIL) is the flagship company of the DCM ShriramIndustrial Group based predominantly in Northern India with a portfolio of prouctscomprising of sugar, alcohol, fine chemicals, rayon tyre cord & textiles. The companywas formed in 1990 post restructuring of the erstwhile DCM Ltd.

Sugar divisionThe sugar division of the company was established in 1932 in the name of DauralaSugar Works. Since then the company has diversified into a spectrum of relatedactivities under the umbrella brand of Daurala Sugar Works. These includedmanufacture of pharmaceutical grade sugar, sugarcane research farm, setting ofdistillery, manufacture of IMFL, Bio-Methanation, manufacture of aromatic chemical,co-generation of power etc.

The entire range of products is manufactured in modern plants havingcontemporary equipments and employing R&D based advanced technologies.

Key achievementsq First plant in India to manufacture double-refined sugar of international

quality.

q First plant in India to manufacture pharmaceutical grade sugar conforming

to IP/BP specifications.

q First sugar plant in India to indigenously convert bagasse fed boilers tomulti fuel fed boilers operating on bagasse, coal , rice husk, mustard branand methane.

q Indigenously designed distillery is rated among the largest , in terms ofcapacity in the country, producing rectified spirit , Extra Neutral alcohol,denatured spirit and potable alcohol.

Sir Shriram (Founder)

Murli Dhar Bharat Ram Charat Ram

Shri Dhar Bansi Dhar Vinay/Vivek Arun Siddharth/Deepak

DCM ShriramConsolidated Ltd.

SBGI/Bioseeds Ltd.

DSCL Esco (100%subsidiary)

DCM ShriramIndustries Ltd.

DauralaOrganics

DCM Hyundai

DCM Ltd.

DCM FinancialServices

DCM Benetton

SRF SIEL

Jay Engg

Usha International

Shriram Pistons



Rayons segmentShriram Rayons was set up in 1965 to produce rayon tyrecord and the engineeringand design for the plant was provided by Chemtex of USA. Shriram Rayons isamongst the country’s major manufacturers of high-grade rayon tyre cord withnylon and rayon conversion facilities catering to the needs of both domestic andoverseas markets. It also has a complex for the manufacture of inorganicchemicals.

The company receives technical assistance from the following two internationalcompanies.

q Beunit Fibres Inc, USA.q Chemtex Inc, USA.

Group companies

Daurala Food and Beverages Pvt LtdDaurala Foods & Beverages Ltd, a limited liability (but unlisted) company is ajoint venture of the DCM Shriram Industries Group with leading Scottish & Frenchliquor producers for production of high class portable spirits in India.

Key strengths

q Strong R&D focus and facilities.q Flexibility designed plant to be responsive to varying segments of products

and customers; suitable for contract manufacturing too.q Well-equipped quality control laboratories, comprehensive utilities,

equipment for treatment of solid wastes and liquid effluents, and acomplete pilot plant.

DCM Hyundai LtdDCM Hyundai Ltd a public limited liability(but unlisted) company, established in1995 is a joint venture with South Korea’s Hyundai group. It is a govt. approved100% Export-oriented unit for manufacture of shipping containers and is equippedto manufacture other steel fabrications too. The joint venture partners for thecompany are Hyundai Corporation of South Korea and Hyundai Precision andIndustries Company Ltd.

Highlightsq Hyundai group is the largest container manufacturer in the world; it has

supplied technology for setting up the plant with the most technologicallyadvanced industrial machinery and facilities and the plant was set up in a

record time of 12 months.q The project has been co-financed by the Commonwealth Development

Corporation, Tamil Nadu Industrial Development Corporation, and SCICILtd.



Projected Income Statement

Period to F902 FY04 FY05 FY06 P FY07 P(Rs in mn) (18) (18) (12) (12) (12)Net Sales 4,948 5,769 5,504 6,911 7,640Operating expenses (4,558) (5,349) (4,892) (6,005) (6,586)Operating profit 391 420 683 905 1,054Other income 301 334 60 75 75PBIDT 692 754 761 980 1,129Interest (574) (516) (275) (225) (185)Depreciation (89) (91) (101) (155) (165)Amortisation - - -Profit before tax (PBT) 29 148 328 600 779Tax (4) (116) (151) (199) (259)Profit after tax (PAT) 25 31 159 401 521Extraordinary / prior period items 28 (0) 133Adjusted profit after tax (APAT) 53 31 292 401 521

Projected Balance sheet

Particulars FY03 FY04 FY05 FY06P FY07P(Rs in mn) (12) (12) (12) (12) (12)SourcesShare Capital 137 137 159 159.2 159.2Reserves 1,623 1,464 1,777 2,178 2,699Net Worth 1,760 1,601 1,937 2,338 2,858Loan Funds 2,479 2,573 1,819 1,569 1,419Def Tax liability 133 169 310 330 360Total 4,372 4,343 4,066 4,237 4,637

UsesGross Block 2,533 2,642 3,600 3,900 4,250Accd Depreciation (1,097) (1,301) (1,783) (1,938) (2,103)Net Block 1,436 1,341 1,817 1,962 2,147Capital WIP 252 249 93 30 30Total Fixed Assets 1,688 1,589 1,910 1,992 2,177Investments 465 392 160 160 160Total Current Assets 2,518 3,278 3,550 4,074 4,509Total Current Liabilities (644) (1,057) (1,735) (2,178) (2,408)Net Working Capital 1,874 2,221 1,815 1,895 2,101Intangible Asssets -Miscellaneous expenditure 122 13 1Def Tax assets 223 127 180 190 200Total 4,372 4,343 4,066 4,237 4,637

Financials

NB: The figures for FY05, FY06 and FY07 are for the merged entity and are strictlynot comparable with the previous years. Profit and Loss numbers for FY05 includeQ4 FY05 numbers of DOL.



Year to (Rs mn) FY04 FY05 E FY06P FY07P(18) (12) (12) (12)

Net profit before tax and extraordinary items 148 328 600 779Depreciation 91 101 155 165Interest expense 516 275 225 185Interest income (61) 0 0 0Operating profit before working capital changes 693 703 980 1,129Add: changes in working capital(Inc)/Dec in(Inc)/dec in sundry debtors (71) (79) (135) (70)(Inc)/dec in inventories (784) (24) (521) (272)(inc)/dec in other current assets 140 0 0 0Inc/(dec) in sundry creditors 0 608 396 205Inc/(dec) in other current liabilities 412 70 47 25Net change in working capital (303) 575 (213) (112)Cash from operating activities 390 1,278 768 1,017Less: Income tax (116) (151) (199) (259)Inc/Dec in Def Tax Asset/liability 132 88 10 20

Misc expenditure w/off 109 12 1 0Net cash from operating activities 514 1,215 579 778Extraordinary inc/(exp) (0) 133 0 0Cash Profit 514 1,347 579 778

Cash flows from investing activities(Inc)/Dec in fixed assets 8 (421) (237) (350)(Inc)/Dec in Investments 73 232 0 0Interest received 61 0 0 0Net cash from investing activities 143 (190) (237) (350)

Cash flows from financing activitiesInc/(Dec) in debt 94 (754) (250) (150)Inc/(Dec) in equity/premium 0 22 0 0Direct add/(red) to reserves (190) 21 0 0Interest expense (516) (275) (225) (185)Dividends 0 0 0 0(inc)/dec in loans & advances 0 (118) (22) (162)Net cash used in financing activities (612) (1,105) (497) (497)Net increase in cash and cash equivalents 45 53 (155) (68)Cash at start of the year 202 247 299 145Cash at end of the year 247 299 144 76

Cash Flow Statement



Period to F9/02 FY04 FY05 E FY06P FY07P(18) (18) (12) (12) (12)

Per share ratiosEPS (Rs) 3.8 2.3 18.4 25.2 32.7Div per share 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0Book value per share 128.2 116.6 121.6 146.8 179.5

Valuation ratiosP/E 31.3 53.0 6.5 4.8 3.7P/BV 0.9 1.0 1.0 0.8 0.7EV/sales 0.8 0.7 0.6 0.5 0.4EV/ PBIT 6.5 6.0 5.2 4.0 3.4EV/PBIDT 5.7 5.3 4.5 3.4 2.9

Profitability ratiosOPM (%) 7.9 7.3 12.4 13.1 13.8PAT % 0.5 0.5 2.9 5.8 6.8ROCE 10.9 12.0 20.3 25.1 26.4RONW 2.0 1.3 15.1 17.2 18.2

Liquidity ratiosCurrent ratio 3.9 3.1 2.0 1.9 1.9Debtors days 42.1 42.8 35.2 35.2 35.2Inventory days 136.3 191.3 135.2 135.2 135.2Creditors days 64.1 89.4 91.0 91.0 91.0

Leverage ratiosDebt / Total equity 1.41 1.61 0.94 0.67 0.50

Component ratiosRaw material 52.4 49.0 52.7 52.2 52.1Staff cost 11.9 11.6 8.7 8.2 8.1Other expenditure 27.8 32.1 27.2 26.5 26.0

Ratios

Published in August 2005. All rights reserved. © India Infoline Ltd 2005-6.This report is for information purposes only and does not construe to be any investment, legal or taxation advice. It is not intendedas an offer or solicitation for the purchase and sale of any financial instrument. Any action taken by you on the basis of theinformation contained herein is your responsibility alone and India Infoline Ltd (hereinafter referred as IIL) and its subsidiaries orits employees or directors, associates will not be liable in any manner for the consequences of such action taken by you.We have exercised due diligence in checking the correctness and authenticity of the information contained herein, but do notrepresent that it is accurate or complete. IIL or any of its subsidiaries or associates or employees shall not be in any wayresponsible for any loss or damage that may arise to any person from any inadvertent error in the information contained in thispublication. The recipients of this report should rely on their own investigations. IIL and/or its subsidiaries and/or directors,employees or associates may have interests or positions, financial or otherwise in the securities mentioned in this report.India Infoline Ltd, 24 Nirlon Complex, Off Western Exp. Highway, Goregaon(E). Mumbai -63. Tel 5677 5900. Fax 2685 0451

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