december 10 th, 2003 são paulo alfredo setubal executive vice president investor relations director...
TRANSCRIPT
December 10th, 2003São Paulo
Alfredo SetubalExecutive Vice President
Investor Relations Director
Presentation to:
Banco Itaú Holding Financeira S.A.
2
10.896
18.915
23.341
26.882
7.056
18.141
20.05618.550
21.811
19.122
24.02222.148
9.269
17.119 16.969
3.185
6.0367.185
5.6354.861
6.382
19.205
15.120
18.06817.49020.345
15.451
6.901
15.847
18.523
7.431
6.901 6.963
2.439
7.5697.460
0
5.000
10.000
15.000
20.000
25.000
dez/98
mar/99
jun/99se
t/99
dez/99
mar/00
jun/00se
t/00
dez/00
mar/01
jun/01se
t/01
dez/01
mar/02
jun/02se
t/02
dez/02
mar/03
jun/03se
t/03
out/03
R$ Million
Itaú
Bradesco
Unibanco
Consistently the largest Market Consistently the largest Market Capitalization in Brazilian banking sectorCapitalization in Brazilian banking sector
Source: Economática. Period : Dec/98 until October/2003
The largest banks in Brazil
BradescoItaú HoldingUnibanco
Stockholders’ Equity Sep/2003
12,96711,464
7,023
3
AgendaAgenda
Highlights
Results:»Statement of Income»Balance Sheet
Sensitivity Analysis
Focus on:»Sustainability»Corporate Governance
4
Highlights – 3Highlights – 3rdrd Quarter 2003 Quarter 2003R$ Million
(Except were indicated)
3rd Q./03
807
11,464
31.3%
2,747
23,338
21.5%
46.8%
4.71%
Net Income
Stockholders’ Equity
ROE (%)
Net Interest Margin
Market Capitalization
Solvency Ratio (%)
Efficiency Ratio (%)
NPL (%)
2nd Q./03
776
10,772
32.1%
2,479
21,149
18.5%
45.8%
4.65%
Variation
4.0%
6.4%
-80 b.p.
10.8%
10.4%
300 b.p.
100 b.p.
6 b.p.
5
ROE AnnualizedROE Annualized
12.9%
28.3% 29.0%
33.4% 34.2%31.8% 32.1% 31.3%
4th Q/01 1st Q/02 2nd Q/02 3rd Q/02 4th Q/02 1st Q/03 2nd Q/03 3rd Q/03
ROE over 30% for the 5th consecutive quarter
6
Consolidated Financial Ratios (%)
1.8 3.6 2.6 2.9 2.1 2.6
31.534.6
14.4
26.3
18.9
31.627.7
16.9 18.421.521.021.3
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
45
50
55
60
Dec-98 Dec-99 Dec-00 Dec-01 Dec-02 Sep-03(*)
Net Income / Assets (ROA)Net Income / Stockholders' Equity (ROE)Risk Based Capital Ratio (Basle Ratio)
(*) Annualized Ratios
7
11,464
2,229
9,036
7,578
6,6425,907
4,198
3,3372,857
880
181
2,377
2,389
1,8411,869
721592
3433923820
1,000
2,000
3,000
4,000
5,000
6,000
7,000
8,000
9,000
10,000
11,000
12,000
90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03(*)
0
250
500
750
1,000
1,250
1,500
1,750
2,000
2,250
2,500
2,750
3,000
3,250
3,500
3,750
4,000
Stockholders´ Equity
Net Income
CAGR(90-S03) = 13.7%
CAGR(90-02) = 23.9%
R$ Million
Sustained Results GrowthSustained Results GrowthEvolution of Stockholders’ Equity and Net IncomeEvolution of Stockholders’ Equity and Net Income
(*) in September 30, 2003
(1) Itaú has not increased capital since 1991
Jan. to Sep./2003Net Income:
R$ 2,298 Million
8
11,464
2,229
9,036
7,578
6,6425,907
4,198
3,3372,857
880
181
2,377
2,389
1,8411,869
721592
3433923820
1,000
2,000
3,000
4,000
5,000
6,000
7,000
8,000
9,000
10,000
11,000
12,000
90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03(*)
0
250
500
750
1,000
1,250
1,500
1,750
2,000
2,250
2,500
2,750
3,000
3,250
3,500
3,750
4,000
Stockholders´ Equity
Net Income
CAGR(90-S03) = 13.7%
CAGR(90-02) = 23.9%
R$ Million
Adaptability to Different Cenarios
Real Plan
Mexico Crisis
Asian Crisis
Russian Crisis
Real Devaluation Argentine
Crisis
Collor Plan
Sustained Results GrowthSustained Results GrowthEvolution of Stockholders’ Equity and Net IncomeEvolution of Stockholders’ Equity and Net Income
(*) in September 30, 2003
(1) Itaú has not increased capital since 1991
Jan. to Sep./2003Net Income:
R$ 2,298 Million
Jan/90 to Sep/03Dividends:
R$ 4.8 BillionCapital Increase(1):
R$ 0.1 Billion
9
AgendaAgenda
Sensitivity Analysis
Highlights
Results:»Statement of Income»Balance Sheet
Focus on:»Sustainability»Corporate Governance
10
Statement of IncomeStatement of Income
Net Interest Margin
Provision for Loan Losses
Credits Recovered
Banking Service Fees
Administrative Expenses
Others
Net Income
Total Assets
3rd Q./03
2,747
(659)
173
1,301
(1,952)
(803)
807
118,982
2nd Q./03
2,479
(484)
136
1,229
(1,797)
(787)
776
106,799
Var. (%)
10.8%
36.2%
27.2%
5.9%
8.6%
2.0%
4.0%
11.4%
* Reclassifications in the 2nd quarter results were made for comparison purposes without effects on net income.
R$ Million (Except were indicated)
11
Banking Itaú36%
Credit cards18%
Insurance, Pension plans
and Capitalization
17%
Funds6%
Banking Itaú-BBA23%
Consolidated Net IncomeConsolidated Net Income
Diversification of income sources – Not restricted only to interest rates
12
Banking ItaúBanking Itaú
3rd Q./03
1,704
(275)
855
(1,484)
(112)
(381)
308
2nd Q./03
1,521
(284)
825
(1,350)
(154)
(338)
220
Variation
183
9
30
(134)
43
(43)
88
R$ Million
Net Interest Margin
Result from Loan Losses
Banking Service Fees
Administrative Expenses
Income Tax and Social Contribution
Other
Net Income
The above table shows the Pro-Forma Statement of Income of the Itaú Banking Segment, considered as if the corporate reorganization currently under way had been concluded. The allocation of the operations was done in a purely
informative manner, with the objective of showing roughly how the operation of this segment would look. Adjustments are still to be carried out.
13
Banking Itaú-BBABanking Itaú-BBA
3rd Q./03
523
(175)
61
(93)
(81)
(45)
190
2nd Q./03
526
(34)
45
(99)
(223)
(28)
187
Variation
(3)
(141)
16
6
141
(17)
3
R$ Million
Net Interest Margin
Result from Loan Losses
Banking Service Fees
Administrative Expenses
Income Tax and Social Contribution
Other
Net Income
The above table shows the Pro-Forma Statement of Income of the Itaú BBA Banking Segment, considered as if the corporate reorganization currently under way had been concluded. The allocation of the operations was done in a purely informative manner, with the objective of showing roughly how the operation of this segment would look.
Adjustments are still to be carried out.
14
Technical Provisions of Insurance, Technical Provisions of Insurance, Capitalization and Pension PlansCapitalization and Pension Plans
1,8822,459 2,825
3,3523,991
884
923906
902
927
998
1,0211,077
1,134
1,168
Sep-02 Dec-02 Mar-03 Jun-03 Sep-03
Pension Plans Capitalization Insurance
R$ Million
3,765
4,4034,808
5,388
6,086Growth of 62% in relation to September, 2002
15
47
95
136
106
147
3rd Q./02 4th Q./02 1st Q./03 2nd Q./03 3rd Q./03
R$ Million
Insurance, Capitalization and Pension Insurance, Capitalization and Pension PlansPlans
Net IncomeNet Income
746 758 773 807 817
570 787 797 882 914
261 301 300 312 367
3rd Q./02 4th Q./02 1st Q./03 2nd Q./03 3rd Q./03
Number of Policies Number of Policies Mass ProductsMass Products In thousand
1,577 1,852 1,870 2,001 2,098
16
Investment Funds and Managed Investment Funds and Managed PortfolioPortfolio
54.959.2 62.9
67.171.8
3rd Q./02 4th Q./02 1st Q./03 2nd Q./03 3rd Q./03
Assets Under ManagementAssets Under Management
R$ Billion
46
29
4236
49
3rd Q./02 4th Q./02 1st Q./03 2nd Q./03 3rd Q./03
R$ MillionNet IncomeNet Income
17
Banking Service FeesBanking Service Fees
R$ Million
3rd Q./03
34489
2343853
1352152717
149
1,301
2nd Q./03
30777
2343951
1332242716
120
1,229
Mutual Funds Management Fees Collection Current Account Services Tax Collection Interbank Fees Credit Operations Credit Cards Income from Guarantees Provided Income from Administration of Consortium Other
Total
Variation %
12.0%15.6%0.0% -2.6%3.9%1.5%
-4.0%0.0%6.3%
24.2%
5.9%
18
Administrative ExpensesAdministrative Expenses
R$ Million
3rd Q./03
851
43813311910456
1,102
1,952
2nd Q./03
733
40212111496
-
1,064
1,797
Personnel Expenses
Remuneration Social Charges Social Benefits / Training Reorganization Collective Labor Agreement Bonuses
Other Administrative Expenses
Total
Variation %
16.1%
9.0%9.9%4.4%8.3%
3.6%
8.6%
12.6%Collective Labor Agreement 2003/2004
19
R$ Million
1,981
3,159
1,869
2,937
1,835
2,842
January to September 2002
Personnel Expenses
Other Administratives Expenses
2003w/o BBAand FIAT
2003w/ BBA
and FIAT
5,140 4,806 4,677Sub-Total
335 329 569 Reorganization
5,475 5,135 5,246Total
Administrative ExpensesAdministrative Expenses
20
R$ Million
(73)
(393)
1,869
2,937
January to September
Personnel Expenses
Administrative Expenses
2003 Variation
(465)4,806Sub-Total
(284)329Reorganization
(749)5,135Total (w/o BBA and FIAT)
Labor Agreement ...8%*
Dollar......................16%
IPCA .......................16%
RatedIndices
Labor Agreement ...8%*
(409)5,475Total (w/ BBA and FIAT)
340• BBA + FIAT -
1,942
3,329
2002 Adjusted
5,271
613
5,884
5,884
-
(*) Labor Agreement about Salary: sep/02 = 7%, sep/03 = 12.6%.
Adjusted Administrative ExpensesAdjusted Administrative Expenses
21
54.7% 53.1%49.3%
45.5% 43.8% 43.2%
2nd Q/02 3rd Q/02 4th Q/02 1st Q./03 2nd Q./03 3rd Q/03
Efficiency Ratio (*)Efficiency Ratio (*)
55.0%49.6%
40.5% 39.9%45.8% 46.8%
2nd Q/02 3rd Q/02 4th Q/02 1st Q/03 2nd Q/03 3rd Q/03
(*) Accumulated in the last 12 months.
Intense efforts to optimize operating expenses and improve efficiency
Efficiency Ratio Accumulated (*)Efficiency Ratio Accumulated (*)
Efficiency RatioEfficiency Ratio
22
AgendaAgenda
Sensitivity Analysis
Highlights
Results:»Statement of Income»Balance Sheet
Focus on:»Sustainability»Corporate Governance
23
R$ Million
Liabilities
Total Liabilities
09/30/03w/ BBA
and FIAT
118,98
2
71,801
34,414
20,281
5,349
8,098
31,566
6,086
743
984
11,464
107,714
w/o BBA
and FIAT
32,234
20,063
3,922
8,105
24,475
6,086
387
978
11,464
09/30/02
98,875
54,893
32,498
16,816
4,287
6,206
23,439
3,765
2,392
1,002
8,560
Assets
Total Assets
09/30/03w/ BBA
and FIAT
118,982
5,766
23,625
30,409
(545)
8,891
34,555
(913)
7,796
11,926
3,238
w/o BBA
and FIAT
107,714
4,396
25,629
24,725
(545)
8,699
25,031
(800)
7,883
11,005
6,087
09/30/02
98,875
5,888
13,652
24,563
(1,336)
11,508
31,284
(747)
6,018
10,499
3,434
Balance Sheet ConsolidatedBalance Sheet Consolidated
Cash + Liquidity
Securities
(Additional Allowance)
Interbank Relations
Net Credit Operations
(Additional Allowance)
Foreign Exchange
Others
Permanent Assets
Deposits
Open Market and others
Accept./Issue - Securities
Foreign Exchange
Borrowings/On-Lending
Tech. Prov Ins/Cap/Pens.
Other Liabilities
Minority Interest
Stockholders` Equity
Guarantees Mutual Funds
24
SecuritiesSecurities
Total
Trading Securities
Available for Sale Securities
Held to Maturity Securities
Derivatives – Assets
R$ Million
30,409
Market Value
10,961
15,849
2,092
1,506
29,676
Cost
10,912
15,169
2,092
1,502
Sep. 30, 2003
26,051
Market Value
9,312
14,015
900
1,825
25,415
Cost
9,298
13,484
900
1,734
Jun. 30, 2003
26,570
Market Value
8,844
14,522
1,016
2,188
26,513
Cost
8,830
14,261
1,016
2,406
Mar. 31, 2003
679 531 261Mark to Market Adjustment –
Stockholders’ Equity (A)
545 545 545
1,224 1,076 806
Additional Provision (B)
Unrealized Results (A) + (B)
25
16,890
23,674
29,61519,596
27,253
38,41936,93334,282
42,69945,414
0
10,000
20,000
30,000
40,000
50,000
1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 (*)
Credit OperationsCredit Operations
Credit Operations Credit Operations and Guarantees
R$ Million
(*) September 30, 2003
26,92731,323
09/30/2003Itaú Holding without BBA and
FIATCredit OperationsCredit Operations + Guarantees
28,30233,080
06/30/2003
26
Credit Operations (*)Credit Operations (*)
By Currency
Foreign Currency
Local Currency
Total
Sep 30, 03
12,503
30,196
42,699
(*) Includes Endorsements and Sureties
Jun 30, 03
13,412
31,174
44,586
Sep 30, 02
14,234
25,453
39,687
Variation %Sep/03 – Jun/03
-4.1 %
-9.4 %
-4.2 %
Variation %Sep/03 – Sep/02
7.4 %
-26.5 %
7.6 %
R$ Million
By Segment
Corporate
Small and Medium Sized
Companies
Individuals
Credit Cards
Real State Finance Individuals
Businesses
TOTAL
Sep 30, 03
24,036
4,353
9,454
2,721
2,047
89
42,699
Jun 30, 03
25,830
4,077
9,672
2,809
2,096
102
44,586
Sep 30, 02
23,921
3,573
6,875
2,844
2,315
158
39,687
Variation %Sep/03 – Jun/03
-6.9 %
6.8 %
-2.2 %
-3.1 %
-2.4 %
-13.4 %
-4.2 %
Variation %Sep/03 – Sep/02
0.5 %
21.8 %
37.5 %
-4.3 %
-11.6 %
-44.0 %
7.6 %
R$ Million
27
1,406 1,5101,692 1,853 1,953
2,1962,515
2,332 2,285 2,234 2,378
630680
680715
715
715
747841 843 848
913
3,172 3,128 3,0823,290
2,911
3,262
2,6682,568
2,3722,190
2,036
Mar.01 Jun.01 Sep.01 Dec.01 Mar.02 Jun.02 Sep.02 Dec.02 Mar.03 Jun.03 Sep.03
Provision for Loan LossesProvision for Loan LossesR$ Million
Minimum Provision
Additional Provision
Total Provision
28
Nonperforming Loans and Coverage Nonperforming Loans and Coverage RatioRatio
Coverage Ratio (*)Coverage Ratio (*)
Global
Individuals
Businesses
(*) Provision for Loan Losses / Total Nonperforming Loans
Nonperforming Loans Ratio (%)Nonperforming Loans Ratio (%)
5.60
4.17 4.16 4.65 4.71
10.66
8.25
1.66 1.461.99 2.35 2.53
12.90
8.948.46
0.00
2.00
4.00
6.00
8.00
10.00
12.00
14.00
Sep-02 Dec-02 Mar-03 Jun-03 Sep-03
172%198% 189%
173%189%
Sep-02 Dec-02 Mar-03 Jun-03 Sep-03
29
BFB (1995) 281Banerj (1997) 25Bemge (1998) 297Banco del Buen Ayre (1998) 123Banestado (2000) 1,089BEG (2001) 364Lloyds Asset Management (2001) 160BBA(2002) 1,343BBA-Icatu (2002) 51Fiat (2002) 462Total 4,195
Goodwill on AcquisitionsGoodwill on AcquisitionsR$ MillionCompletely Amortized in
the Income Statement
30
Unrealized ResultUnrealized Result
931 916 831
1,4661,666 1,619
1,8642,070
Dec-01 Mar-02 Jun-02 Sep-02 Dec-02 Mar-03 Jun-03 Sep-03
Not including excess allowance for loan losses of
R$ 913 million in Sep/03
R$ Million
31
AgendaAgenda
Sensitivity Analysis
Highlights
Results:»Statement of Income»Balance Sheet
Focus on:»Sustainability»Corporate Governance
32
1944
Over 100 banks acquired / merged / incorporated
1974 – 2nd largest private bank – Acquisition of BUC
Birth of the Electronic Bank
Ocupation of the National Territory
Beginning of Segmentation (Itaucorp)
Itaú’s Management
1975 19841980
Anticipating Scenarios
Scen
ario
s
Political
Military
Dictatorship
Economic• High Growth Rates
• Growing Inflation
• Great State Interventionism
Banking Sector
• Consolidation of Mergers and Acquisitions
• Expansion of the branches network
Period : 1975 to 1984
33Investment in Technology and Branches
Focus: Services (Floating)
Administration in plans of stabilization
Start – Cost Management
Brand Atualization
Itaú’s Management
1985 19941990
Anticipating Scenarios
Scen
ario
sPolitical
DemocraticTransition
Economic• Low Growth Rates• High Inflation• Closed Economy• Economic Plans• Default
Banking Sector
• Administration in Inflationary Environment
• Investments in Technology
• Focus on Services
Period : 1985 to 1994
34
1995 2003
Itaú’s Management
1995 - Acquisition of BFB
1997 Acquisition of Banerj
1998 – Acquisition of Bemge
2000 Acquisition of Banestado
2001 – Acquisition of BEG
2002 – Acquisition of BBA and FIAT
Anticipating Scenarios
Scen
ario
s
Consolidation
of Democracy
Period : 1995 to 2003
Political Economic Banking Sector• Foreigners / Privatizations• Specialization• Growing Electronic Network• Increase of Competition• Consolidation of the System
• Low Growth Rates• Control of Inflation• Market Volatility• High Interest rates• Globalization
35
5,051 5,247 5,524 5,5876,060
8,411
14,052
10,764
13,462
4,2894,800
4,000
6,000
8,000
10,000
12,000
14,000
16,000
85 87 89 91 93 95 97 99 01 03(*)
Checking Accounts(**)
Checking AccountsChecking AccountsThousand
(*) September 30, 2003
CAGR = 5.6%
(**) – 1990, 1991 and 1992 : excluded the checking accounts in NCz$ and DER / VOBC
36
1 154 340923
13,777
8,876
27
6,558
11,714
2,976
19,244
795866 913
1,071
1,8532,017
1,826
2,597
1,905
1,479
582
3,180
1,304
2,995
400
1,100
1,800
2,500
3,200
75 77 79 81 83 85 87 89 91 93 95 97 99 01 03(*)
0
3,000
6,000
9,000
12,000
15,000
18,000
21,000
ATMs
Quantity
Branches + CSBs(**)
(*) September 30, 2003 (**) – Customer Site Branch
CAGRBranches + CSBs = 8.78%
SustainabilitySustainabilityDistribution Network EvolutionDistribution Network Evolution
Obs.: 308 Points of Sale in 1972
37
1990 20031994
Anticipating Scenarios Before and After Real Plan
Target Planned Growth Shareholder Value
Operational To perform well! To perform efficiently!
Market Growth Focus
Personnel Generic Specialization
Remuneration Fixed Structure Performance Related
Risks Avoid Manage
Corp. Govern. Formal Active
Businesses Banking Financial Services
Changes in the Approach
Intangibles Not Managed Managed
38
AgendaAgenda
Sensitivity Analysis
Highlights
Results:»Statement of Income»Balance Sheet
Focus on:»Sustainability»Corporate Governance
39(*) APIMEC – Brazilian Association of Analysts and Investment Professionals of the Capital Markets.
Focus on Corporate GovernanceFocus on Corporate GovernanceTransparency
Apr/00 – Independent Fiscal Council
Respect to the Minority Shareholders
Feb. 2002 – Listing of ADR Level II at NYSE + Financial Holding Company status by FED
Effective creation ofValue to the Shareholders
Apr/00 - Creation of the IR website
May/01 - APIMEC* Meeting – 10 hours
Jun/01 - Compliance to Bovespa´s CG Level 1
Jul/02 - Trading and Disclosure Policies
2002 – 11 APIMEC Meetings
(Pioneership in Brazil)
Apr/01 – Independent Members in the
Board of DirectorsApr/02 - Tag Along and Reinforcement of the
Independence of the Board
Jul/02 – Trading and Disclosure Committees
Dec/03 – Dividend Reinvestment Program
40
Dow Jones Sustainability Index - DJSI
Since 1999 Banco Itaú stands in Dow Jones Sustainability World Index (DJSI World), with other 315 companies. The index composition is annualy revised, and Itaú stands in the index since its creation.
Corporate Sustainability
Capacity of Stockholders´ Value Creation in the long term
Social, Cultural and Environmental Commintment
Management Quality
The DJSI World became, since its creation, in January 1999, na important reference to investors and foreign asset managers, that make their decisions
based on the performance of the index.
In 2000, Itaú and Cemig were the two Brazilian companies chosen to stand in the index. In the next year, besides them, other two were included: Embraer and Unibanco. Again in 2002, Itaú, Cemig and Embraer were chosen and Itaúsa were the new one included.
41
► Report 20-F: Besides the responsibility certifications of the financial
statements signed by the CEO and CFO, Itaú Holding transpassed the legal
requirements throught the creation of an internal responsibility certification
which the executives of all departments that generate information for the 20-F
Report are in compliance with.
Sarbanes Oxley – Adopted ProceduresSarbanes Oxley – Adopted Procedures
► Many of the obligations stood in law and regulated by SEC (Securities and
Exchange Commission) are already in place at Itaú Holding and the Brazilian
regulations (Examples: loans forbidden to management, auditor timely
substituion, some auditor services forbidden to the independent auditors).
► In process of implementation: Audit Comittee.
► Financial Statements in US GAAP since December 1998.
42
The most Valuable Brand in Brazil (*)The most Valuable Brand in Brazil (*)
Company
BradescoBanco do BrasilSkolBrahmaPetrobrasUnibancoEmbraerAntarcticaRealSadiaPerdigão
Value in 2001
697308
---
303196
--
128-
Value in 2003
809427421294286208193184133106100
Itaú 970 1,093
US$ MillionUS$ MillionSurvey conducted by the British company Interbrand
(*) Dinheiro Magazine – 06/04/2003
43
Banco Itaú Holding Financeira S.A.Banco Itaú Holding Financeira S.A.
Euromoney Magazine – Corporate Governance Ranking
• Best in Emerging Markets
• 3rd Worldwide
The only Latin American Bank
• Financial Holding Company status, granted by FED;
• Member of the Dow Jones Sustainability World Index since 1999 (4th time in a row).
Latin Finance Magazine
• Best Latin American Bank for the second time
44
91.28%
Real Plan
Russian CrisisReal Devaluation
US$
Mexican Crisis
Asian Crisis
100
645
203
909Argentine
Crisis
Altack to WTC
Itaú(1) Itaú(2) Ibov.
10 years 24.70% 20.49% 7.34%
5 years 16.29% 12.58% -2.04%
2003 82.72% 103.24%
Annual Average Appreciation in US$
(1) With reinvestment of dividends(2) Without reinvestment of dividends
Preferred Shares AppreciationPreferred Shares AppreciationEvolution of US$ 100 Invested from Nov. 1993 to November 4, 2003Evolution of US$ 100 Invested from Nov. 1993 to November 4, 2003
0
200
400
600
800
1.000
93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03
Itaú (1)Itaú (2)Bovespa
Market Capitalization in Brazilian banking sectorItaú HoldingBradescoUnibanco
October 2003
26,88219,205
7,431
Consistently the largest Market Capitalization
45
AgendaAgenda
Focus on:»Sustainability»Corporate Governance
Sensitivity Analysis
Highlights
Results:»Statement of Income»Balance Sheet
46
Variables
Inflation
Interest Rate (SELIC)
Compulsory over Current Deposits
Compulsory over Saving Dep. (TR** + 6% p.a.)
Reduction of Spreads
Growth in Volumes
Controlled Expenses
Scenario (*)
9.2% p.a.
26.2% p.a.
45.0%
20.0%
Current
5.0% p.a.
12.0% p.a.
25.0%
20.0%
(*) Future expectations derived from this sensitivity analysis must consider the risks and uncertainties that involve any activities and are away from the control of the companies of the conglomerate (politic and economic changes, volatility in interest rates and exchange, technology changes, inflation, financial disintermediation, competitive pressures over the products and prices and changes in the applicable regulations).
Sensitivity Analysis – Retail (*)
(**) Interest Reference Rate
47
• Retail Funds
• Branches
• Personnalité
• Small and Middle Companies
• Credit Cards
• Vehicles Financing
• Insurance, Pension Plans and
Capitalization
Sensitivity Analysis – Retail
48
R$ Million
Resources 100 100 100 130 91 70
Current Situation Scenario (*)
Average Balance
Financial Margin
Spread Average Balance
Financial Margin
Spread
Loans - Individuals 100 100 100 154 96 58
Loans - Businesses 100 100 100 149 98 62
Real Estate Credit 100 100 100 152 130 85
Banking Service Fees 100 123
Total Revenues 100 101
Insurance Products 100 166
Provisions 100 94
Expenses 100 120
Net Income before tax 100 87(*) Future expectations derived from this sensitivity analysis must consider the risks and uncertainties that involve any activities and are
away from the control of the companies of the conglomerate (politic and economic changes, volatility in interest rates and exchange, technology changes, inflation, financial disintermediation, competitive pressures over the products and prices and changes in the applicable regulations).
Sensitivity Analysis – Retail (*)
49
R$ Million
Resources 100 100 100 130 91 70
Current Situation Scenario (*)
Average Balance
Financial Margin
Spread Average Balance
Financial Margin
Spread
Loans - Individuals 100 100 100 154 96 58
Loans - Businesses 100 100 100 149 98 62
Real Estate Credit 100 100 100 152 130 85
Banking Service Fees 100 123
Total Revenues 100 101
Insurance Products 100 166
Provisions 100 94
Expenses 100 120
Net Income before tax 100 87
Return on Capital maintained over
20%
(*) Future expectations derived from this sensitivity analysis must consider the risks and uncertainties that involve any activities and are away from the control of the companies of the conglomerate (politic and economic changes, volatility in interest rates and exchange, technology changes, inflation, financial disintermediation, competitive pressures over the products and prices and changes in the applicable regulations).
Sensitivity Analysis – Retail (*)
December 10th, 2003São Paulo
Alfredo SetubalExecutive Vice President
Investor Relations Director
Presentation to:
Banco Itaú Holding Financeira S.A.