decision making h edu 4790/6790. dealing with problems problem avoiders problem solvers problem...
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Decision Making
H Edu 4790/6790
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Dealing with problems
Problem avoiders Problem solvers Problem seekers
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Steps of problem solving
Problem definition Analyze the problem Identifying alternative solutions Developing and applying decision criteria Selecting, implementing and evaluating
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Problem definition
State the problem precisely Set objectives Assumptions
Structural assumptions Personal assumptions The problem itself
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Steps of problem solving
Problem definition Analyze the problem Identifying alternative solutions Developing and applying decision criteria Selecting, implementing and evaluating
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Analyze the problem
Get the facts Analyze the facts Some common mistakes
Too broad or too narrow Symptoms rather than causes Wrong problem Escalating commitment
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Steps of problem solving
Problem definition Analyze the problem Identifying alternative solutions Developing and applying decision criteria Selecting, implementing and evaluating
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Identify Alternative Solutions
Brainstorming Nominal Group Technique Computer-based decision support
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Brainstorming
All criticism is ruled out “Freewheeling” is welcomed Quantity is important Building on one another’s ideas is
encouraged
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Nominal Group
Participants work alone and write possible solutions to a stated problem
Ideas are read aloud without discussion All ideas are recorded Ideas are clarified Voting Steps 4 & 5 repeated as necessary
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Steps of problem solving
Problem definition Analyze the problem Identifying alternative solutions Developing and applying decision criteria Selecting, implementing and evaluating
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Decision criteria
Environments of decision making Certainty Risk Uncertainty
Decision matrix
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Decision matrix
N1 N2 N3
S1 R11 R12 R13
S2 R21 R22 R23
S3 R31 R32 R33
S = strategyN = states of natureR = results
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Decision matrix
UPMILF
Poverty RetiredCommunity
Dentist + +/- +
Ortho + - -
Dentist &Ortho + - +/-
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Decision matrix
$200k $250k $300k
2 R.N.s($100k)
$100k $150k $200k
3 R.N.s($150k)
$50k $100k $150k
4 R.N.s($200k)
0 $50k $100k
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Steps of problem solving
Problem definition Analyze the problem Identifying alternative solutions Developing and applying decision criteria Selecting, implementing and evaluating
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Selecting, Implementing, Evaluating Evaluate alternatives Rank alternatives Types of analysis Decide on best solution Implement Evaluate
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How managers deal with problems
System thinking Intuitive thinking Multidimensional thinking Strategic opportunism
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Factors that influence…
The problem The problem solver The situation External environment Internal environment
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Quality
The Ape Story Define quality CQI = continuous quality improvement
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Approaches to CQI - Deming
Tally defects Analyze and trace them to the source Search for a way to improve the process Make corrections Keep a record of what happens afterwards Use statistics
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Approaches to CQI - Juran
Quality trilogy Planning Control Improvement
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Approaches to CQI - Crosby
Cost of quality Price of non-conformance Price of conformance
Do it right the first time The customer first, last, and always
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Tools
Benchmarking Cause and effect diagram FOCUS-PDCA
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Reengineering
Inside-out planning Outside-in planning Reengineering (text)
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An Example
Case…the Carbondale Clinic