Classification: Internal

Part of Statoil Fuel & Retail

Degvielas tirgus izaicinājumi nākotnē

Dace Lodziņa

SIA “Latvija Statoil”

Transporta degvielas departamenta vadītāja,

Vadības grupas pārstāve

2

Part of Statoil Fuel & Retail

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

8

9

20

00

20

05

20

10

20

15

20

20

20

25

20

30

OECD Non-OECD

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

20

00

20

05

20

10

20

15

20

20

20

25

20

30

Non-OECD OECD

World Population (Billions)

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

20

00

20

05

20

10

20

15

20

20

20

25

20

30

OECD Non-OECD

Oil Demand (Million BOE/Day) GDP (Trillion 2005 US$)

Source: Wood MackenzieSource: OECD Source: EIA

Pasaules tendences

3

Part of Statoil Fuel & Retail

Transport

Industry

Other

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

2000

2003

2006

2009

2012

2015

2018

2021

2024

2027

2030

Global Oil Demand by Sector (Million BOE/Day)

0%

5%

10%

15%

20%

25%

30%

2000

2003

2006

2009

2012

2015

2018

2021

2024

2027

2030

China EU27 USA

Percent of Global Oil Demand

Source: Wood Mackenzie Source: Wood Mackenzie

Pasaules tendences

4

Part of Statoil Fuel & Retail

Pasaules tendences

Source:PFC Energy Strategic Horizons

+ 500 million LDV in 20 Years Explosive Growth

5

Part of Statoil Fuel & Retail

Source: PFC Energy

Gasoline

Diesel

FFVHybrid

PHEV/FEVLPG CNG/LNG

2010

GasolineDiesel

FFV

HybridPHEV/FEV

LPGCNG/LNG

2030

Global LDV Fleet Composition Forecast

Alternatīvie degvielas veidi

• Country specific and dependant on legislation

• Connected with energy supply

• Electricity and LPG/LNG as most growing global alternatives

6

Part of Statoil Fuel & Retail

• By 2030, 58% of world oil product demand will come from the transportation sector

• The LDV fleet will grow by 62% by 2030, from 901 million to 1.46 billion vehicles

• Gasoline-powered vehicles will fall from 80% of the world LDV fleet to 62% by 2030

• Alternative-fueled vehicles will rise from the current level of 5% of the LDV fleet to 17% by 2030

Pasaules tendences – galvenie secinājumi

Source:PFC Energy Strategic Horizons

7

Part of Statoil Fuel & Retail

Tendences: degvielas patēriņš samazinās

4.0

4.5

5.0

5.5

6.0

6.5

7.0

7.5

8.0

2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

2015

EU Passenger Car Fuel Efficiency (New Vehicles - Litres/100Km)

Fuel Efficiency Fleet Average Prognoses: 2010 - 2040

• US: from 10 Litres to 4 Litres

• China: from 7.6 Litres to 4 Litres

• EU: from 7.3 Litres to 4 Litres

8

Part of Statoil Fuel & Retail

Eiropas Savienībā - lielākā dizelizācija pasaulē

Dieselisation in EU - Main 5

40000

50000

60000

70000

80000

90000

100000

110000

120000

130000

140000

150000

160000

Tota

l Pas

seng

er C

ars

0,0 %

10,0 %

20,0 %

30,0 %

40,0 %

50,0 %

60,0 %

Tota

l Per

cent

age

Shar

e

Total Passenger Cars Total Diesel Cars Diesel Percentage Share of Total Passenger Cars

• The total passenger cars will grow by 5.3% from 2007 to 2030 or 11,5 million passenger cars

• The dieselisation will reach its peak of over 54% in 2031

• Eastern Europe and Scandinavia 2010 ~ 23-25% diesel share

9

Part of Statoil Fuel & Retail

Cars

0

200

400

600

800

1000

1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010

Th

ou

san

d v

ehic

les

Petrol Diesel

Buses

0

5

10

15

20

1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010

Th

ou

san

d v

ehic

les

Petrol Diesel

Trucks

0

50

100

150

1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010

Th

ou

san

d v

eh

icle

s

Petrol Diesel

Total vehicles

0%

50%

100%

1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010

Petrol Diesel

Avots: CSP, CSDD

Situācija Latvijā

10

Part of Statoil Fuel & Retail

Kas notiks ar smago transportu?

• These vehicles will run on diesel also in the future - 2020

• Increased use of biodiesel

– Local use of B100/B30

– B7 soon to be launched

• Very limited use of other alternative fuels

– Hydrogen, Biomethane, etc.

– Mainly demonstration projects

• Some hybridisation

– As a tool for fuel savings

• Focus on reduction of fuel consumption and emissions

– Engine downsizing

– Design optimisation, etc.

11

Part of Statoil Fuel & Retail

Prioritātes šobrīd

Classification: Internal

Part of Statoil Fuel & Retail

Paldies par uzmanību!

Degvielas tirgus izaicinājumi nākotnē

Dace Lodziņa

SIA “Latvija Statoil”

Transporta degvielas departamenta vadītāja,

Vadības grupas pārstāve