Analysis to Support Post-2020 GHG Emission Targets

DELIVERING ON THE U.S. CLIMATE COMMITMENT: A 10-POINT PLAN TOWARD A LOW-CARBON FUTURE

KARL HAUSKER, SENIOR FELLOW MAY 2015

Image: Flickr/Philip Roeland

$1tn lost to weather and climate disasters in the US since 1980

$200bn lost to weather and climate disasters in the US since 2011

THE URGENCY OF CLIMATE ACTION

UNITED STATES SETS CHALLENGING GHG EMISSIONS REDUCTION TARGET FOR 2025

Source: The White House, FACT SHEET: U.S. Reports its 2025 Emissions Target to the UNFCCC

CLIMATE ACTION AT THE FEDERAL LEVEL

• Taking action on most major emission sources, building off the 2013 U.S. Climate Action Plan and other initiatives• Relies on existing authorities• 2012 – strengthened GHG and CAFE standards• 2014 – Clean Power Plan proposed• 2014 – SNAP rules on HFCs proposed

CLIMATE ACTION AT THE STATE LEVEL

• States are taking a broad range of actions• Renewable Portfolio Standards (31)• Energy Efficiency Resource Standards (21)• Market-based systems putting a price on carbon:

• California• Nine northeast states (RGGI)

WRI ANALYSIS OF U.S. TARGET BUILDS ON A BODY OF PREVIOUS WORK

2013: Can the US Get There From Here?

2015: Carbon Pricing

Handbook2014 NEW CLIMATE ECONOMY:

GLOBAL REPORT: Better Growth, Better ClimateU.S. REPORT: Seeing is Believing

RESEARCH QUESTIONS

• Using existing federal authorities combined with state actions, what pathways could deliver the 26-28% reduction?

• Looking beyond 2025, and assuming new legislative authority in coming years, what pathways could move further toward a low-carbon economy in 2030-2040 and beyond?

KEY FINDINGS

• U.S. can meet or exceed 26-28 percent target.• A wide range of actions are underway,

but the U.S. will need to:– Expand and strengthen some current and proposed

policies– Take action on emission sources not yet addressed

• Beyond 2025, deeper reductions are necessary and achievable in parallel with a growing economy.

NET GHG EMISSIONS: REFERENCE CASE

NET GHG EMISSIONS: REFERENCE CASE AND LOW-CARBON PATHWAYS

SECTOR CONTRIBUTIONS TO GHG REDUCTIONS UNDER CORE AMBITION PATHWAY (26% IN 2025)

Reduction = X,XXX Mt below 2005 levels

10-POINT ACTION PLAN

POWER SECTOR

• Multiple factors are leading to lower carbon intensity

• Clean Power Plan will accelerate this change

• Significant potential remains

HYDROFLUOROCARBONS

• Consumption and emissions will keep growing

• EPA taking action • SNAP program• Vehicles rules

INDUSTRY

• Strong growth in emissions expected• Untapped potential for energy

efficiency and fuel switching• EPA has broad Clean Air Act authority • DOE programs also spur reductions

BEYOND 2025: DEEPER REDUCTIONS NEEDED

• Congress needs to engage• Growing support for putting a price on carbon • Carbon pricing

– Reduces emissions– Compatible with robust economic growth

• Evidence:– Experience in the U.S. and worldwide

– Credible modeling of impacts carbon pricingxpert opinion and coordinate with experts

BEYOND 2025: CARBON PRICE PATHWAYS

• Update, improve and expand WRI model

• Explored pathways combining a price on carbon with targeted complementary policies

• Emissions reduced – 40-42% below 2005 levels by 2030 – 50-53% by 2040

• GDP and employment impacts• Lower energy bills possible in residential,

commercial, and transport sectors• Solicit expert opinion and coordinate with experts

KEY FINDINGS - RECAP

• U.S. can meet or exceed 26-28 percent target.• A wide range of actions are underway, but the

U.S. will need to:– Expand and strengthen some current and proposed

policies– Take action on emission sources not yet addressed

• Beyond 2025, deeper reductions are necessary and achievable in parallel with a growing economy.

Delivering on the U.S. Climate Commitment: A 10-Point Plan Toward a Low-Carbon Future

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