Democracy in Ukraine: third attempt

Iryna Bekeshkina

Prepared for Conference “Democracy in Ukraine –

On the Right Path?” December, 16, 2014,

Budapest

1991 – independent Ukraine: task of triple transformation

• Republic dependent on Moscow

• State economy

• Authoritarianism

• Independent state (army, currency etc.)

• Market economy

• Democracy

First phase of democratic transition: 1991 – late 1990s.

Creation of democratic institutions

• Non-competitive obligatory elections

• One party’s monopoly on state power

• “The only true” ideology

• State media censored by the party

• Total isolation of citizens from outside world

• Genuine electoral competition;

• Multi-party system;

• Freedom of expression and beliefs;

• Independent non-state press, TV, and radio;

• Unlimited contacts with outside world.

1996 – adoption of the Constitution of Ukraine, first article states that Ukraine is a democratic state

But Economic collapse, drastic drop in the

living standards

Second phase of democratic transition: Late 1990s – 2004

Establishment of hybrid semi-authoritarian regime

• Dysfunctionality of democratic institutions, especially elections

• Limited privatization, creation of oligarchic capital

• Proliferation of corruption • Authorities’ control over mass media

BUT•Strong opposition with high level of public support•Development of civil society•Economic growth, increase of the living standards and formation of middle class•Several independent mass media (“Channel 5”)

Ukraine between East and West

Which integration vector is a priority for Ukraine?

May 2004

EU – 35%Russia, Belarus, Kazakhstan – 44%Difficult to answer – 21%

Second attempt of democratic transition: 2005 – February 2010

Ukraine becomes a free country

• Freedom of opposition activities

• Freedom of mass media• Freedom of assembly • Free, competitive, and

democratic elections BUT

• Degradation of political parties, transformation of them into leader-oriented financial corporations

• Rise of populism and paternalism

• Economic crisis of 2008-2009 and deep disappointment of people in politics

Ukraine (2005 – 2009) was a unique hybrid: free but corrupt country

2001 2.1

2002 2.4

2003 2.3

2004 2.1

2005 2.6

2006 2.8

2007 2.7

2008 2.4

2009 2.2

On the eve of 2010 presidential election, public opinion became more sympathetic towards authoritarianism

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

45

May 2004 June 2007 December 2008

April 2009 December 2009

Democracy is preferable to any other kind of government

In some circumstances a non-democratic government can be preferable

For someone like me, it doesn’t matter what form of government we have

Difficult to answer

14 February 2010 – beginning of rollback of democracy in Ukraine

Reasons behind Viktor Yanukovych’s victory:1. Sharp economic downfall as a result of global financial crisis.2. Public disappointment in democracy, longing for “strong leader”.

Establishment of authoritarianism, curtailment of political rights and civil liberties (2010 – February, 2014)

• Political repressions• Establishment of authoritarian

hierarchy of power: degradation of parliament, total subordination of judiciary to executive

• Endemic and systematic nature of corruption

• Limitation of electoral competition• Restriction of freedom of speech • Curtailment of basic rights and

freedoms BUT

• Activation of civil society• Loss of illusions• Consolidation of opposition

At the times of President Yanukovych Ukraine lost a status of free country and remains to be strongly corrupted state

Indices of freedom (Freedom House):

2005-2009: Political rights – 3Civil liberties – 2Diagnosis: free country

2010-2012:Political rights – 4Civil liberties – 3 Diagnosis: partly free country

Corruption indices: 2010 – 2.4 2011 – 2.32012 - 2.6Diagnosis: strongly corrupted country

Economy was subordinated to Yanukovych and his close relatives and affiliates

• Endemic corruption• Monopolies• For my friends, anything; for my

enemies, the law• Bribes on public procurements• Expropriation of properties

through courts

Viktor Yanukovych’s son, Oleksandr, has during the last 6 months multiplied his wealth three times – from 187 to 510 million of USD.

Maidan (21 November 2013– 20 February 2014)

– anti-authoritarian democratic revolution

Maidan, having started as student demonstration for signing the Association Agreement with the EU, soon turned into anti-authoritarian democratic revolution which has ended with escape of Yanukovych and change of authorities.

New threats to UkraineNew challenges to democracy

• Russian aggression (Crimea, Donbas)

• Separation of Ukraine

• Civic War

• Economic default

Democracy at the Troubled Times: is it possible?

• Free and fair elections

• Dialog with the East and the South

• Radical reforms

• Civil society control

Free and fair election under conditions of military actions

• Ukraine has conducted pre-term presidential and parliamentary elections which have been recognized by international community as free and fair

Majority of Ukrainians have recognized the elections as free and fair

How free and fair have the presidential elections been?

Completely or rather fair – 62%Completely or rather unfair – 22%

How free and fair have the parliamentary elections been?

Completely or rather fair – 56%Completely or rather unfair – 28%

Majority of Ukrainians believe that the parliamentary elections will improve situation in Ukraine

October 2012

October 2014

Yes, the elections will help to improve the situation

23 43

The elections won’t change anything

48 32

No, the elections will only make things worse

7 7

Difficult to answer 16 19

Do you think that parliamentary elections will help to improve situation in Ukraine?

Ukrainian put main responsibility for separatism in the East of the country on Russia

In your opinion, what are the reasons for separatism in the East of Ukraine? (Respondents could choose up to three answers)

Provocations and subversions of Russia 60,6Pro-Russian attitudes of large part of inhabitants of this region 37,9Actions of Donbas “oligarchs” 29,7Change of authorities of the country in February 2014 27,7Mistakes of new Ukrainian authorities 19,7Events in Crimea 17,3Poor socio-economic situation in this region 17,3Provocations and subversions of Western countries 9,9Excessive centralization of power in Ukraine 4,8Other 1,8Difficult to say 3,4

The survey was conducted during September 5-10, 2014, by Razumkov Centre

Russian started to treat Ukrainians – as well as Ukrainians started to treat Russians – worse. Still, Russians have more

negative attitude towards Ukrainians

Dynamics of positive attitude of Ukrainians towards Russians and Russians towards Ukrainians

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

100 В Україні до РосіїВ Росії до України

In Ukrainians’ public view, Eastern foreign vector is no longer on a same part as Western

61

41

5863

5461 60 61

5649

22

56

44 48 47 43 44 45 46 42

54

010203040506070

1998 2000 2002 2004 2005 2006 2008 2010 2012 2013 2014

Union withRussia andBelarus

Joining the EU

Positive attitudes towards joining union with Russia and Belarus and towards joining the EU(Data of the Institute of Sociology of the National Academy of Sciences of Ukraine)

Support of EU membership dominates in all regions, except Donbas

Popular attitudes towards EU membership

West Center South East Donbas Ukraine

Positive 75 68 38 37 11 51

Negative 7 9 31 33 63 24

Difficult to say

17 23 31 30 26 25

Ukrainians have changed their opinion on NATO and started to see it as a guarantor of security

Which option of foreign security policy, in your opinion, is best for Ukraine?

(Ilko Kucheriv Democratic Initiatives Foundation, Kyiv International Institute of Sociology)

18

1

42

26

13

19

0,4

22

15

44

0 20 40 60

Difficult to say

Other

Non-alighed status of Ukraine

Military union with Russia and other CIS countries

Joining the NATO

Sept 2014

March 2012

Popular attitudes towards NATO vary in different regions

Which option of foreign security policy, in your opinion, is best for Ukraine?

West Center South East Donbas

Joining the NATO

78,3 52,7 24,8 32,4 5,7

Military union with Russia and other CIS countries

1,4 3,2 14,8 23,9 45,5

Non-alighed status of Ukraine

6,9 17,9 36,7 23,7 39,8

Other0,0 0,1 1,9 0,5 0,3

Difficult to say13,4 26,1 21,9 19,4 8,7

In Ukraine, national self-identification has grown

Who do yourself consider in the first place?

July 2013 July 2014

An inhabitant of my village/town/city

29 16

An inhabitant of my region

8 8

A citizen of Ukraine 51 65

A representative of my ethnos

2 2

A citizen of the USSR 7 5

A citizen of Europe 1 1

A citizen of the world 2 2

Other 1 1

Identification with Ukrainian citizenship dominates in all regions, except Donbas

West Center South East Donbas Ukraine

An inhabitant of my village/town/city

14 14 25 14 18 16

An inhabitant of my region 7 2 5 5 27 8

A citizen of Ukraine 70 76 59 67 34 65

A representative of my ethnos 3 2 1 3 1 2

A citizen of the USSR 0 3 6 9 14 5

A citizen of Europe 3 1 1 1 1 1

A citizen of the world 1 1 3 2 5 2

Other 1 1 0 0 1 1

In Ukraine, national pride has grown

July 2013 July 2014

Very proud or rather proud

48 63

Not proud at all or rather not proud

25 10

Difficult to answer

27 27

Are you proud of being a citizen of Ukraine?

Ukrainians are generally satisfied with president’s and prime minister’s actions

• Completely and mostly satisfied with activities of Prime Minister Yatseniuk – 52%

• Completely and mostly dissatisfied with activities of Prime Minister Yatseniuk – 40%

• Completely and mostly satisfied with activities of President Poroshenko – 49%

• Completely and mostly dissatisfied with activities of President Poroshenko – 42%

November 2014, Rating Group

Main tasks for Ukraine

• Establishment of peace in Donbas

• Conduction of radical reforms

• Renewal of authorities and improvement of quality of politics

Main hot points of democratic reforms in Ukraine

• Anti-corruption reform• Law enforcement and

judiciary systems reform

• Lustration of former officials

• Civil service reform• Electoral reform

Ukraine at the crossroad: to be or not to be?

• Ukraine as independent country could survive only as integral part of Europe.

• If Europe turns away from Ukraine, it will cease to be value-based community.

• The future of post-communist part of Europe is now being determined on Ukrainian soil.