ukraine may 14-28, 2013 - iri july 17 survey of ukainian... · rating group ukraine with funding...

1

International Republican Institute

Baltic Surveys Ltd./The Gallup Organization

Rating Group Ukraine

with funding from the National Endowment for

Democracy

Public Opinion Survey

Residents of the

Ukraine

May 14-28, 2013

2

Methodology The survey was conducted by the Public Opinion and Market Research Company Baltic Surveys/The Gallup Organization on behalf of the International Republican Institute. The field work was carried out by Rating Group Ukraine.

The main sample consisted of 1,200 permanent residents of Ukraine aged 18 and older and eligible to vote. It is representative of the general population by age, gender, education and religion.

Data were collected on May 14 – 28, 2013, through face-to-face in-home interviews with the respondents. The margin of error does not exceed plus or minus 2.8 percent. The response rate was 63 percent.

The sample design was a multi-stage random sample:

• Stage one: Ukraine is divided into 27 official administrative regions (25 regions of Ukraine, Kiev and Sevastopol).

All regions of Ukraine were surveyed.

• Stage two: selection of the settlements - towns and villages. Settlements were selected at random. The number of

selected settlements in each region was proportional to the share of population living in a particular type of the

settlement in each region. Towns were grouped into subtypes according to the size:

• City more than one million residents

• City 500,000-999,000

• City 100,000-499,000

• City 50,000-99,000

• City to 50,000

• Village

• Stage three: primary sampling units were described.

• The closest birthday rule was used for selection of the respondent. The households were selected using the

random route method.

IRI, NED, Baltic Surveys/The Gallup Organization, Rating Group Ukraine UKRAINIAN RESIDENTS SURVEY, May 2013

3

MOOD OF UKRAINE


4

Generally speaking, do you think that things in Ukraine are going in the right direction

or wrong direction?

13

24

15

71

73

66

58

69

16

14

20

18

16

13

14

0 20 40 60 80 100

November 2011

March 2012

May 2012

August 2012

May 2013

Right direction Wrong direction DK/NA


5

Over the last 12 months, how has the financial situation of your household

changed?

1

1

1

6

6

9

14

8

37

39

45

37

46

36

34

30

27

30

18

18

13

15

14

2

2

3

5

1

0.2

1

0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100%

November 2011

March 2012

May 2012

August 2012

May 2013

Improved a lot Improved somewhat Stayed the same Worsened somewhat Worsened a lot DK/NA


6

In the next 12 months, how do you expect the economic situation in Ukraine

to change?

1

1

2

7

8

13

17

8

30

32

35

31

38

32

32

26

24

29

17

15

11

11

12

12

14

16

12

0.4

113

0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100%

Nov 2011

March 2012

May 2012

August 2012

May 2013

Improve a lot Improve somewhat Stay the same Worsen somewhat Worsen a lot DK/NA


7

ISSUES


8

Do you think it is acceptable or not if some groups of people use the following

methods of protests? How acceptable is each of these forms?

73

64

54

48

28

24

23

17

18

29

38

40

60

63

66

71

8

7

8

12

11

13

11

12

Collecting signatures for

petition, letter

Legal demonstrations

Legal strikes

Boycott

Demonstrations without

permission

Strikes without permission

Blocking of major roads

Occupation of buildings or

enterprises

Acceptable Not acceptable DK/NA


9

If Ukraine was able to enter only one international economic union, who should it be

with?

42

36

37

32

40

40

43

41

42

37

3

4

5

6

5

15

17

17

20

18

0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100

November 2011

March 2012

May 2012

August 2012

May 2013

The European Union Customs Union with Russia, Belarus and Kazakhstan Other DK/NA


10

What have you heard about the Association Agreement between Ukraine and the

European Union?

Heard a lot about it

17%

Heard something about it

53%

DK/NA

5%

Haven't heard anything

about it

25%


11

Do you think the Association Agreement with the European Union, if signed, will be

useful or harmful for Ukraine? (Respondents who have heard about the Association Agreement with the EU, N=832)

DK/NA

25%

Very useful

17%

Rather useful

34%

Very harmful

6%

Rather harmful

18%


12

17

19

15

22

16

16

33

30

37

43

33

28

18

20

16

10

20

21

6

6

6

5

4

9

25

25

26

20

27

26

0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100%

ALL

RESPONDENTS

GENDER

Male

Female

AGE

18-29 years

30-49 years

50 years and

older

Very useful Rather useful Rather harmful Very harmful DK/NA

17

31

18

6

10

33

44

36

27

25

18

10

11

26

28

6

1

7

12

8

25

14

28

29

29

0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100%

ALL RESPONDENTS

REGIONS

West

Center

South

East

Do you think the Association Agreement with the European Union, if signed, will be

useful or harmful for Ukraine?

(Respondents who have heard about the Association Agreement with the EU, N=832)


13

How would you evaluate your attitude towards the following entities?

52

42

40

24

34

49

45

54

12

6

10

18

2

3

4

3

0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100%

Russia

Poland

European Union

USA

Warm Neutral Cold DK/NA


14

Please tell me, which three of the following issues are the most important for

Ukraine? (Three mentioned issues)

53

51

45

26

23

22

21

15

9

7

6

5

3

3

2

3

1

Unemployment

Corruption within the state bodies

Low industry production

Control over price growth

Social protection for poor

Government incompetence

Political instability

Crime

Delay in salary/Pension payments

Relations with Russia

Rights to land ownership

Hryvnia devaluation

Lack of/Possibility of cutting off gas, electricity, water

Russian language status

Russian Black Sea Navy presence

Other

DK/NA


15

54%

55%

47%

23%

21%

21%

21%

18%

8%

7%

7%

6%

2%

2%

2%

3%

1%

52%

48%

44%

29%

25%

22%

21%

13%

10%

8%

6%

5%

4%

3%

1%

2%

2%

51%

57%

44%

23%

13%

25%

24%

18%

11%

6%

5%

7%

3%

3%

2%

3%

2%

59%

50%

50%

24%

23%

24%

22%

13%

9%

6%

7%

6%

3%

2%

1%

2%

0%

50%

50%

43%

30%

29%

18%

19%

15%

9%

10%

6%

4%

3%

3%

2%

3%

2%

Unemployment







Crime




Hryvnia devaluation




Other

DK/NA

18-29 years

50 years

and older 30-49 years



Male Female


16

63%

48%

48%

22%

15%

28%

20%

18%

10%

2%

4%

7%

2%

3%

4%

4%

1%

48%

48%

42%

29%

29%

20%

22%

17%

10%

2%

7%

8%

5%

2%

1%

2%

2%

57%

49%

48%

34%

24%

18%

19%

13%

7%

12%

7%

3%

1%

3%

1%

1%

0%

48%

59%

45%

21%

24%

21%

23%

12%

10%

14%

5%

4%

3%

3%

1%

4%

2%

Unemployment







Crime




Hryvnia devaluation




Other

DK/NA

East South



West Center REGIONS:


17

52 54 54 50 53

44

39

48

37

51

42

43

43 40 45

39

26

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

100

Nov-11 Mar-12 May-12 Aug-12 May 2013

Unemployment Corruption within the state bodies

Low industry production Control over price growth

What are the most important problems facing Ukraine?

(Top four issues identified)


18


you personally? (Three mentioned issues)

54

50

37

27

22

21

12

12

10

9

9

7

5

3

1

8

2


Unemployment





Crime




Hryvnia devaluation





Other

DK/NA


19

54%

54%

31%

30%

24%

18%

12%

13%

8%

8%

10%

7%

5%

2%

1%

7%

2%

53%

47%

41%

24%

20%

24%

13%

11%

10%

10%

9%

7%

5%

4%

0%

8%

2%

54%

60%

23%

30%

23%

24%

15%

13%

9%

8%

9%

6%

4%

1%

0%

6%

3%

51%

60%

30%

27%

23%

20%

11%

14%

11%

10%

9%

9%

3%

3%

1%

7%

2%

56%

37%

50%

24%

20%

20%

12%

11%

10%

9%

10%

6%

7%

3%

0%

10%

2%


Unemployment





Crime




Hryvnia devaluation





Other

DK/NA

18-29 years

50 years

and older 30-49 years



Male Female


20

57%

63%

35%

24%

22%

17%

13%

12%

3%

8%

12%

9%

1%

1%

1%

13%

0%

54%

48%

43%

24%

22%

23%

17%

11%

14%

8%

11%

8%

1%

2%

1%

3%

2%

29%

50%

31%

30%

20%

18%

9%

14%

11%

5%

6%

7%

8%

3%

0%

4%

4%

48%

42%

35%

29%

23%

25%

10%

13%

10%

13%

9%

5%

10%

6%

1%

12%

2%


Unemployment





Crime




Hryvnia devaluation





Other

DK/NA

East South



West Center REGIONS:


21

56 57 59

54 54

46 51

49 51

50

41 34 36

39

37

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

100

Nov-11 Mar-12 May-12 Aug-12 May 2013

Control over price growth Unemployment Social protection for poor

What are the most important problems facing residents of

Ukraine?

(Top three issues identified)


22

POLITICS


23

If pre-term parliamentary elections were announced today, would you vote in such

elections?

Definitely yes

33%

Rather yes

36%

Rather no

8%

Definitely no

19%

DK/NA

4%


24

33

33

34

35

28

38

36

35

36

34

37

35

8

9

7

9

10

6

19

19

19

17

22

17

4

4

4

5

3

4

0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100%

ALL

RESPONDENTS

GENDER

Male

Female

AGE

18-29 years

30-49 years

50 years and

older

Definitely yes Rather yes Rather no Definitely no DK/NA

33

38

37

26

31

36

40

37

36

31

8

8

6

8

10

19

11

17

23

24

4

3

3

7

4

0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100%

ALL RESPONDENTS

REGIONS

West

Center

South

East

If pre-term parliamentary elections were announced today, would you vote in

such elections?


25

If the election for the president of Ukraine were held next Sunday, would you vote in

such election?

Definitely yes

38%

Rather yes

36%

Rather no

5%

Definitely no

17%

DK/NA

4%


26

38

37

38

37

33

42

36

34

37

39

35

35

5

7

5

5

8

5

17

18

16

16

20

14

4

4

4

3

4

4

0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100%

ALL

RESPONDENTS

GENDER

Male

Female

AGE

18-29 years

30-49 years

50 years and

older


38

47

40

28

34

36

40

36

35

34

5

3

5

7

7

17

7

17

22

20

4

3

2

8

4

0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100%

ALL RESPONDENTS

REGIONS

West

Center

South

East

If the election for the president of Ukraine were held next Sunday, would you

vote in such election?


27

In your opinion, has the situation in the following areas improved or worsened

during last two years?

73

60

59

57

55

53

51

50

46

46

45

40

39

37

35

32

29

25

24

33

31

34

33

34

32

37

37

29

45

43

41

48

40

53

55

46

2

4

6

7

9

7

4

7

13

4

5

7

12

9

3

12

9

15

1

2

3

2

2

5

13

5

4

21

5

9

8

6

22

3

7

14

0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100%

Prices

Healthcare

Employment

Political stability

Economy of Ukraine

Government competence

Agriculture

Fight against corruption

Social protection

Small and medium business

Housing and communal services

Fight against criminality


Stability of the hryvnia


Salary/Pension payments

Situation with languages

European integration of Ukraine

Worsened Stayed the same Improved DK/NA


28

If a referendum was held on the following issues, how would you vote?

72

43

40

36

33

16

8

26

33

37

25

34

11

11

11

10

14

16

9

19

16

17

28

33

0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100%

Introduction of constitutional law on the right of citizens to

dismiss officials, deputies, judges, heads of law-enforcement

agencies of all levels

Joining of Ukraine to the European Union

Joining of Ukraine to the Customs Union of Belarus, Kazakhstan

and Russia

Election of the President of Ukraine only in one round of

elections

Introduction of purely majoritarian system of parliamentary

elections

Introduction of bicameral parliament

Yes No Will not participate DK/NA


29

Do you feel that the 2012 parliamentary elections were free and fair and reflected

political preferences of the people?

Definitely yes

5%

Rather yes

21%

Rather no

29%

Definitely no

30%

DK/NA

15%


30

5

5

5

4

3

8

21

20

21

17

22

21

29

28

29

34

29

26

30

33

28

30

31

30

15

14

16

15

15

15

0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100%

ALL

RESPONDENTS

GENDER

Male

Female

AGE

18-29 years

30-49 years

50 years and

older


5

2

3

7

8

21

12

17

28

26

29

37

29

28

24

30

40

37

19

23

15

9

14

18

19

0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100%

ALL RESPONDENTS

REGIONS

West

Center

South

East

Do you feel that the 2012 parliamentary elections were free and fair and

reflected political preferences of the people?


31

How many times per week do you access the Internet?

19

25

24

19

24

6

4

6

5

6

7

4

9

5

8

7

6

6

6

9

5

4

5

5

5

54

56

49

57

47

2

1

2

3

1

0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100

November 2011

March 2012

May 2012

August 2012

May 2013

Every day 5-6 times per week 3-4 times per week 1-2 times per week Less often Never DK/NA


32

24

26

22

52

28

5

6

6

5

10

7

2

8

9

7

11

13

3

9

9

10

9

14

6

5

6

4

3

8

3

47

43

51

15

29

79

1

1

1

0

1

2

0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100%

ALL

RESPONDENTS

GENDER

Male

Female

AGE

18-29 years

30-49 years

50 years and

older

Every day 5-6 times per week 3-4 times per week 1-2 times per week Less often Never DK/NA

24

19

22

16

34

6

7

6

6

3

8

6

8

11

9

9

8

11

11

8

5

5

8

4

2

47

54

44

50

43

1

1 0

2

1

0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100%

ALL RESPONDENTS

REGIONS

West

Center

South

East

How many times per week do you access the Internet?


33

SOCIO-DEMOGRAPHICS


34

45

55

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

100

Ukraine

Gender

Female

Male

23

35

43

0

20

40

60

80

100

Ukraine

Age groups

50+

30-49

18-29


35

7

26

38

4

25

0

20

40

60

80

100

Ukraine

Education

University/Higher

education

Non-complete higher

Vocational secondary

General secondary

Non-complete secondary

72

9

10 3

4 2

0

20

40

60

80

100

Ukraine

Religion DK/NA

Atheist

Other

Believe in God but don't

belong to any religion

Greek Catholic

Orthodox


36

31

15 1

53

0

20

40

60

80

100

Ukraine

Sector of employment

Don't work

Public non-

government sector

State sector

Private sector

25

1 15

2

31

3 9

10 4

0

20

40

60

80

100

Ukraine

Occupation Other

Unemployed

Housewife

Student

Pensioner

Higher and medium level

executive

White collar

Farmer

Blue collar


37

42

36

21

1

0

20

40

60

80

100

Ukraine

Language usually spoken at home

Other

Ukrainian and

Russian equally

Russian

Ukrainian

80

18

2

0

20

40

60

80

100

Ukraine

Ethnicity

Other

Russian

Ukrainian


38

97

2

1

0

20

40

60

80

100

Ukraine

Membership in a political party or nongovernmental

organization

Member of a

nongovernmental

organization

Member of a

party

None

23

30

19

28

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

West Ukraine Center Ukraine South Ukraine East Ukraine

Regions*


*Oblasts included in each region:

West Ukraine – Volyn, Zakarpartia, Ivano-Frankivsk, Lviv, Rivne, Ternopil, Khmelnitskiy, Chernivtsi

Center Ukraine – Vinnitsya, Zhitomyr, Kyiv, Kirovohrad, Poltava, Sumy, Cherkasy, Chernihiv, Kyiv City

South Ukraine – Crimea Autonomous Region, Zaporizhia, Mykolaiv, Odesa, Kherson

East Ukraine – Dnipropetrovsk, Donetsk, Luhansk, Kharkiv

ukraine may 14-28, 2013 - iri july 17 survey of ukainian... · rating group ukraine with funding...

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