DEMOGRAPHIC AND ECONOMIC STATISTICSABOUT IMMIGRATION IN SASKATCHEWAN

Prepared for the:

Association for Financial ProfessionalsRegina

March 17, 2016

Doug ElliottSask Trends Monitor

444 19th AvenueRegina, Saskatchewan

S4N 1H1 306-522-5515

sasktrends@sasktel.netwww.sasktrends.ca

OUTLINE

March 17, 2016 2

Terminology

Impact on Demographics• Historical patterns• Recent trends• Country of origin• Age

Labour Market Participation

Income Trends• Age • Sex• Duration• Category

The material was prepared by Doug Elliott from QED Information Systems Inc., a Regina based consulting firm and the publisher of Sask Trends Monitor.

Unless otherwise indicated, these data are from Statistics Canada but the estimates and projections are the responsibility of Sask Trends Monitor.

The data are current as of March 2016. Some figures will be revised in future releases.

TERMINOLOGY

The term immigrant is generally used to describe those who are permanent residents of Canada but who were not born in Canada. Many but not all immigrants will eventually become Canadian citizens. The official term is landed immigrant.

Non-permanent residents were not born in Canada but are temporarily living in the country. Included are:

• foreign students;• temporary foreign workers;• refugee claimants; and• a handful of diplomatic residents.

Many non-permanent residents will eventually become landed immigrants.

The term foreign-born is sometimes used to describe landed immigrants and non-permanent residents.

Unless otherwise indicated, the statistics in this material cover only immigrants.

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MORE TERMINOLOGY

Immigrants come to Canada under a number of different programs. The three main ones are describe below.

The Family Class allows landed immigrants to bring their immediate family to Canada.

There are a number of different kinds of economic immigrants. The most common for Saskatchewan are those who come under the Saskatchewan Immigrant Nominee Program.

Refugees are those, like the Syrians, who are escaping persecution, war or severe human rights abuses.

There are quotas for each of these categories.

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DEMOGRAPHIC TRENDS

LONG TERM TRENDS

Canada and Saskatchewan were both, of course, settled by immigrants.

When the 1911 census was conducted, one half of the province’s 492,000 residents were born outside of Canada, the equivalent of 244,000 people.

The proportion declined steadily to 2001 when there were 51,000 foreign-born residents of Saskatchewan, 5.3% of the population.

In 2011, there were 69,000 immigrants and 8,000 non-permanent residents in the province.

The proportion will have increased since 2011.

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0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

1910 1920 1930 1940 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020

Immigrants and Non-Permanent Residents in Saskatchewan, Percent of Total Population

1911Pop = 492,000Immigrants = 49.5%

2011Pop = 1.1 millionImmigrants = 7.6%

INTERPROVINCIAL COMPARISON

In spite of the recent growth in Saskatchewan, the province had fewer immigrants than most other provinces in 2011.

The same is true if one looks only at recent immigrants –those who came to Canada between 2006 and 2011.

In 2011, 2.7% of Saskatchewan residents were recent immigrants compared with the national average of 3.5%.

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28.5%

27.6%

18.1%

15.7%

12.6%

6.9%

6.8%

5.3%

5.2%

3.9%

1.8%

20.6%

0% 5% 10% 15% 20% 25% 30%

Ont

BC

Alta

Man

Que

North

Sask

NS

PEI

NB

Nfld

Canada

Immigrants as Percent of Total Population, 2011

RESIDENCE WITHIN SASKATCHEWAN

Immigrants tend to live in the larger urban centres in the province.

More than one in ten residents of the Regina and Saskatoon metropolitan areas are immigrants.

Recent immigrants are more widely distributed among the smaller urban centres.

Looked at another way, about three-quarters of recent immigrants lived in the Regina or Saskatoon metropolitan areas in 2011.

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10.7%

10.5%

7.9%

6.5%

6.1%

5.5%

4.4%

4.3%

3.6%

2.9%

6.8%

0% 2% 4% 6% 8% 10% 12%

Saskatoon

Regina

Swift Current

Lloydminster (Sask)

North Battleford

Moose Jaw

Estevan

Prince Albert

Yorkton

Other Saskatchewan

Saskatchewan

Immigrants as Percent of Total Population, 2011

RecentImmigrants (after2006)Other Immigrants

TRENDS IN IMMIGRATION AFTER 2011

Saskatchewan introduced the Saskatchewan Immigrant Nominee Program (SINP), initially as a pilot project, in 1998. The flow of immigrants to Saskatchewan increased dramatically from the mid-2000s onward.

The number of immigrants coming to Saskatchewan after 2011 has averaged more than 10,000 per year.

This is the main reason for the province’s growing population.

In 2015/16 the Syrian refugees will add approximately 1,000 to these flows.

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0

2,000

4,000

6,000

8,000

10,000

12,000

14,000

2006/07 2007/08 2008/09 2009/10 2010/11 2011/12 2012/13 2013/14 2014/15July to June:

Direct Immigration Flows to Saskatchewan

NON-PERMANENT RESIDENTS

About one-half of non-permanent residents are temporary foreign workers.

The number of non-permanent residents declined in 2015 because of restrictions to the temporary foreign worker program.

There are, however, an increasing number of foreign students in the province.

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0

2,000

4,000

6,000

8,000

10,000

12,000

14,000

16,000

18,000

20,000

2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015as of July

Number of Non-Permanent Residents in Saskatchewan

TYPE OF PROGRAM

Virtually all of the recent immigration to the province has been among economic immigrants, a category that includes the SINP.

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0

2,000

4,000

6,000

8,000

10,000

12,000

2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014Calendar Years

Flows to Saskatchewan by Type of Program

Economic immigrants

Family class

Refugees

COUNTRY OF ORIGIN

In the period from 2006 to 2011, the single largest country of origin for Saskatchewan immigrants was the Philippines.

Detailed data are not available after 2011 but the vast majority of recent immigrants are from Asian countries.

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0

1,000

2,000

3,000

4,000

5,000

6,000

7,000

8,000

9,000

2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014Calendar Years

Flows to Saskatchewan by Country of Origin

Asia and Pacific

Europe & USA

Africa and the Middle East

All others

AGE DISTRIBUTION

Recent immigrants are much younger, on average, than other Saskatchewan residents.

More than one-half (56%) of the immigrants in the twelve months ending in July 2015 were in the 20 to 39 age group. The proportion is near 80% if you include their children.

This has had a dramatic impact on the age structure of the province’s population and is partly responsible for the increase in the number of school-aged children.

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0%

5%

10%

15%

20%

25%

0-4 10-14 20-24 30-34 40-44 50-54 60-64 70-74 80 plus

Age Distributions of Immigrants 2014-15

provincialpopulation

immigrants2014-15

ECONOMIC IMPACTS

LABOUR MARKET ACTIVITY - EMPLOYMENT

Employment grew by 42,700 between 2010 and 2015 – the equivalent of more than 8,000 jobs per year.

The majority of the employment growth (75%) was among immigrants and non-permanent residents.

The proportions are still small. Canada-born residents accounted for 87% of employment in 2015.

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26

37

12

499

0 4,000 8,000 12,000 16,000 20,000

Recent Immigrants(in Canada less

than 5 years)

Other immigrants

Non-Permanent residents

Born in Canada

Employment Growth, 2010 to 2015

employmentin thousands

2015

LABOUR MARKET ACTIVITY – EMPLOYMENT RATES

In the primary labour market age group, 25 to 54 years of age, the employment rate among immigrants is almost as high as it is for those born in Canada.

The low employment rates among non-permanent residents will be because of the large number of students and refugee claimants in this category.

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80.9%

82.6%

73.2%

85.7%

65% 70% 75% 80% 85% 90%

Recent Immigrants(in Canada less than

5 years)

Other immigrants

Non-Permanentresidents

Born in Canada

Employment Rates in 2015, 25 to 54 Years of Age

EMPLOYMENT EARNINGS

Statistics Canada uses income tax records to track income for immigrants over time. These figures represent the average employment income before taxes. The averages include only those with at least some employment income and are adjusted for inflation.

Immigrants who landed in Canada before the mid 2000s had above-average employment incomes. Those who arrived later have incomes below the average.

The factors underlying this trend are complex.

• Recent immigrants may not have had a chance to find suitable employment.

• The nature of immigration has changed over time.

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$20,000

$25,000

$30,000

$35,000

$40,000

$45,000

$50,000

2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013Year Landed in Canada

Average Employment Income Among All Immigrants in Saskatchewan

Provincial Average

All immigrants

constant$2013

INCOME VS. YEARS IN CANADA

This looks at employment income of Saskatchewan immigrants in 2013 according to the time they have spent living in Canada.

There is a dramatic increase in incomes during the first few years of residence. After that, increases are more gradual and even after many years, incomes are still below the provincial average.

Average incomes for the principal applicants under the Saskatchewan Immigrant Nominee Program (SINP) grow much more quickly. They are well above the provincial average after only three years in Canada.

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$15,000

$25,000

$35,000

$45,000

$55,000

$65,000

$75,000

11109876543210Years Living in Canada

Average Employment Income Among Immigrants in Saskatchewan, 2013

provincialaverage$45,000

SINPPrincipalApplicant

AllImmigrants

2013 INCOME BY CLASS OF IMMIGRANT

This looks at a specific group of immigrants, namely the approximately 4,500 who came to Canada in 2010, were living in Saskatchewan in 2013, and had at least some employment income.

The principal applicants under the SINP and other skilled worker programs had incomes well above the provincial average. Their spouses and children had much lower income.

Incomes were also lower among those in the family class and among refugees.

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435

345

240

1,615

1,450

245

$10,000 $20,000 $30,000 $40,000 $50,000 $60,000 $70,000

Family class

Skilled workers,principal applicants

Skilled workers,spouses and dependents

SINP,principal applicants

SINP,spouses and dependents

Refugees

average income in 2013 (provincial average = $45,000)

Average Employment Income in 2013 Among Immigrants in Saskatchewan, Landed in 2010

number withempl income

2013 INCOME BY SEX

The differential between men and women is just as pronounced among immigrants as it is in the Canadian born population.

Women immigrants who came to Canada in 2010 had 2013 employment income that was 61% of the average for men. The provincial average was 65% in 2013.

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2,330

2,180

4,510

$0 $10,000 $20,000 $30,000 $40,000 $50,000 $60,000

Men

Women

Both sexes

average income in 2013 (provincial average = $45,000)

Average Employment Income in 2013 Among Immigrants in Saskatchewan, Landed in 2010

number withempl income

2013 INCOME BY AGE AT IMMIGRATION

The employment income for immigrants across age groups in much the same way as it is for those born in Canada.

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570

365

1,765

1,335

420

60

$0 $10,000 $20,000 $30,000 $40,000 $50,000 $60,000

Under 20

20 to 24

25 to 34

35 to 44

45 to 54

55 & older

average income in 2013 (provincial average = $45,000)

Average Employment Income in 2013 Among Immigrants in Saskatchewan, Landed in 2010, by

Age at Landing

number withempl income

RETENTION OF IMMIGRANTS TO SASKATCHEWAN

The income tax records can also be used to track mobility.

This shows that about a third of those who came to Canada in the late 1990s via Saskatchewan were still living here in 2013.

The retention rate for those who arrived in the early 2000s started out higher but was, ten years after arrival, only 53%.

Those who came after 2008 are on track to have a higher retention rate.

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0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

100%

0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17years since landing in Canada

Retention Rate (percent of those who landed in Saskatchewan who are living in Saskatchewan)

2008 to 20132002 to 20071996 to 2001

arrival in Canada

ATTRACTION OF IMMIGRANTS

Saskatchewan has been reasonably successful in attracting those who immigrated to other parts of Canada.

In 2013, 13% of the immigrant population in Saskatchewan originally landed in Ontario

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Sask76%

Atlantic<1%

Quebec2%

Ontario13%

Manitoba1%

Alberta4%

B.C.4%

Immigrants in Saskatchewan in 2013 by Original Province of Entry

SUMMARY

The arrival of immigrants in Saskatchewan is arguably the most important demographic trend in the province over the past ten years.

Unlike previous immigrants, many of whom were from Europe, the majority of recent arrivals are from Asia.

The influx of immigrants has increased the number of young adults in the province. Most are coming under the Saskatchewan Immigrant Nominee Program.

Three quarters of the employment growth over the past five years has been among immigrants and non-permanent residents.

After three years in Canada, employment incomes of immigrants are near the provincial average – above if they are the principal applicants under the provincial nominee program but below if they are refugees or spouses of principal applicants.

The retention rate of recent immigrants is higher than it has been in the past.

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