Developing a ‘Rapid’ Strategic Land-Use and Transport Policy Model

using EMME/2

Marwan AL-AzzawiMarwan AL-Azzawi

Senior Transport PlannerSenior Transport Planner

PDC Consultants, UKPDC Consultants, UK

Also at Napier University, UKAlso at Napier University, UK

IntroductionIntroduction

Considerable interest in identifying transport and land-use strategies which will encourage less travel, especially by private car.

Consequently, transport planners need methods which can produce long-term forecasts of the changes in travel demand and supply, in order to assist in the development of such strategies, and a transport model must provide a consistent response to various transport measures, including:

Land-use policies which reduce the need to travel; Measures to discourage car travel, and encourage walking, cycling

and public transport; and Facilities to improve the image and performance of public

transport systems.

About This PaperAbout This Paper

Describe a research project which aims to devise a procedure to assist in using EMME/2 to develop a ‘rapid’ strategic land-use and transport model which:

Has a limited number of zones, thereby reducing data collection; Has aggregated transport network, helping to reduce data

collection; Contains comprehensive details of land-uses in study area, helping

to accurately reflect effects of land-use changes on transport; Emphases ‘supply-side’ constraints, and achieves equilibrium

between supply and demand; Represent supply side effectively, given large zoning system; Maintains links to other models; and Has short run time, to model scenarios quickly.

The Strategic Transport Model used with EMME/2

The SALUTE Framework represents a philosophy rather than a fixed set of assumptions.

Consequently, this philosophy should be carried more or less intact from one study to the next but allow for the level of detail to vary according to the situation.

There is a sacrifice in level of spatial detail which can be accommodated in the model. (eg. As little as 11 zones).

Figure shows how compromises need to be made. SALUTE Framework fits in at Level 2 of the Figure – i.e. a

great deal of traveller types disaggregated to permit comprehensive demand modelling, and an aggregate supply representation.

Example of Supply and Demand Data for a SALUTE Model

Population Children, Employed Adults, UnemployedAdults, Retired

Household 0 car, 1 car, 2+ cars, TotalEmployment Retail, Office, Construction, Manufacturing,

Industry, Agriculture, Other

Demand

Trips Types Work, Education, Shopping, Social &recreational, Employer Business, NonHome-Based Employer Business, NonHome-Based Other, Other

Periods AM Peak, Inter-Peak, PM Peak, Evening,24 Hour

Zone Size 10 Internal, 1 External

Supply

Network Size 37 Nodes, 72 Links

The SALUTE Framework

The SALUTE Transport

Model

The Demo - Study Area

The Demo - New Zone

System

The Demo - Trip

Movements

The Demo - Development

of Zone System

The Demo - The Highway

Network

The Demo - The Rail Network

The Demo - Combined Network

The Demo - Choice

Mechanism

Comparison of ResultsComparison of Results

Old ModelOld Model– 454 million

passenger-kilometres per annum

– 90% by vehicles, 10% by Public Transport

– 49.1 million trips generation per annum

SALUTE ModelSALUTE Model– 455 million

passenger-kilometres per annum

– 91% by vehicles, 9% by Public Transport

– 48.7 million trips generation per annum

Comparison of ResultsComparison of ResultsMeasure/Effect Previous

TransportModel

SALUTETransport

Model

Forecast growth in the absence of any measures +31% +30%

Walking facilities -1% -1%Cycling measures -1% -2%Public transport improvements -5% -5%Safer Routes to Schools projects Unavailable -2%Demand Management and Traffic Restraint - Parking policies -2% -2% - Capacity reductions/limits -2% -1% - Travel Plans Unavailable -1% - Information Unavailable -1% - Technology/changed working arrangements Unavailable -2%

Net Effect Unknown +13%

ConclusionsConclusions A new modelling framework has the following features:

– A limited number of zones, thereby reducing data collection;

– An aggregated transport network, also reducing data collection;

– Comprehensive details of land-uses in the study area;

– Gives emphasis to ‘supply-side’ constraints;

– Maintains need to represent supply side effectively, given large zoning system;

– Maintains links to other models; and

– Has a short run time, to enable many scenarios to be modelled Has a short run time, to enable many scenarios to be modelled and appraised quickly.and appraised quickly.

Initial results are positive, and the research programme will develop other models using the new SALUTE Framework to continue testing the model.