DEVELOPING INTEGRATED ECONOMIC ACCOUNTS FOR GLOBAL VALUE CHAINS

Nadim AhmadHead of Trade and Competitiveness Statistics, OECD

NBS-OECD Workshop on National AccountsGuangzhou, December 2 – 5, 2014

2

SETTING THE SCENE

3

Statistics and Policy

• Increasing international fragmentation of production has obscured ability of conventional statistics to inform policy..... at the same time as demand for statistics in this area is greatest– Gross trade statistics multiple count flows– Few statistics on exporting & importing firms– Scant information on foreign affiliates (home and

abroad) • Particularly given increased importance of flows in IPPs

• And where data does exist it is often not internally consistent, reflecting different surveys, coverage, concepts, units – FATS/FDI/TEC/Trade data/National Accounts

4

OECD-WTO TiVA initiative

• Was the first part of the response to growing policy needs

5

TIVA

Why TiVA?

Gross trade statistics increasingly ‘multiple count’ flows in intermediates as the production process develops over several countries …

6

AB

C

Gross exports (110)

Value-added (10)

Value-added (100)

Country

Country Country

Gross exports (intermediates) (100)

Why TiVA?

.. meaning that gross trade statistics may create ‘misleading perceptions’ and imperfect policies

7

8

For example….

• Where are our export markets? • Which sectors create most value and jobs? • Does protectionism work? Is it counter-

productive– Are there costs on importers of intermediates,

particularly when they are significant exporters.

– What about those firms further upstream providing inputs to the imports?

• How should we interpret bilateral trade balances?

9

How can we respond?

• By measuring the value that is added by individual firms in the production process

AB

C

Gross exports (110)

Value-added (10)

Value-added (100)

Country

Country Country

Gross exports (intermediates) (100)

10

HOW?

How do we measure TiVA?

• Using a global IO table

11

An Inter-country I-O table

Sector 1 Sector 2 Sector 1 Sector 2 Country A Country B

Sector 1: Goods Z11AA Z12

AA Z11AB Z12

AB F1AA F1

AB

Sector 2: Services Z21AA Z22

AA Z21AB Z22

AB F2AA F2

AB

Sector 1: Goods Z11BA Z12

BA Z11BB Z12

BB F1BA F1

BB

Sector 2: Services Z21BA Z22

BA Z21BB Z22

BB F2BA F2

BB

NTZ1A NTZ2

A NTZ1B NTZ2

B NTFA NTFB

TIZ1A TIZ2

A TIZ1B TIZ2

B TIFA TIFB

Value- Labor compensation VL1A VL2

A VL1B VL2

B

Added Operating surplus VO1A VO2

A VO1B VO2

B

Tax less subsidy on production VT1A VT2

A VT1B VT2

B

X1A X2

A X1B X2

BOutput

Tax less subsidy on products

International trade margin and insurance

Final DemandCountry BCountry A

Country A

Country B

National I-O tablesProduction linkageFinal expenditureIncome (Value-added)Import procurement info

+Bilateral Trade Database

by industry and end-use categories (intermediates, capital and consumption goods)

12

The current OECD Inter-Country I-O model

57 economies + Row, 1995-2009, 37 sectors

13

OECD All OECD 34 countries

BRIICSBrazil, China, India, Indonesia, Russian Federation, South Africa

Other EU27Bulgaria, Cyprus, Latvia, Lithuania, Malta, Romania

Other G20 Argentina, Saudi Arabia

Other South Eastern Asia

Brunei Darussalam, Cambodia, Malaysia, Philippines, Singapore, Thailand, Viet Nam

Other Eastern Asia Chinese Taipei, Hong Kong ChinaOther Rest of the World

December: Plus, Colombia, Costa Rica, Croatia, Tunisia and 2011 – 34 sectors released

TiVA on OECD.STAT – industry list

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15

TiVA 2014 – Industry ListIO Industries

ISIC Rev.3 Industry

1 01t05 Agriculture, hunting, forestry and fishing2 10t14 Mining and quarrying3 15t16 Food products, beverages and tobacco4 17t19 Textiles, textile products, leather and footwear5 20 Wood and products of wood and cork6 21t22 Pulp, paper, paper products, printing and publishing7 23 Coke, refined petroleum products and nuclear fuel8 24 Chemicals and chemical products9 25 Rubber and plastics products10 26 Other non-metallic mineral products11 27 Basic metals12 28 Fabricated metal products except machinery and equipment13 29 Machinery and equipment n.e.c 14 30,32,33 Computer, electronic and optical products 15 31 Electrical machinery and apparatus n.e.c16 34 Motor vehicles, trailers and semi-trailers17 35 Other transport equipment18 36t37 Manufacturing n.e.c; recycling19 40t41 Electricity, gas and water supply20 45 Construction21 50t52 Wholesale and retail trade; repairs22 55 Hotels and restaurants23 60t63 Transport and storage24 64 Post and telecommunications25 65t67 Finance and insurance26 70 Real estate activities27 71 Renting of machinery and equipment28 72 Computer and related activities29 73, 74 Other Business Activities (incl. R&D)30 75 Public admin. and defence; compulsory social security31 80 Education32 85 Health and social work33 90t93 Other community, social and personal services34 95 Private households with employed persons

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TiVA 2014 ... plus

• A TiVA ‘Cookbook’ – How TiVA is constructed, including do’s

and don’ts

• And more timely TiVA – ‘nowcasting’ with quarterly trade data

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NATIONAL DATA REQUIRED

Bilateral Trade statistics

An international IO table requires high quality international trade statistics– Asymmetries & missing data– Re-exports– Additional information on cif/fob adjustments– Rules for dealing with confidentiality– Supporting Import flow matrices– Estimates of non-residents and residents

expenditure abroad– An ability to reconcile merchandise trade/TIS

flows with National Accounts SU and IO tables. 18

19

Merchandise trade asymmetries - examples

Top 5 export asymmetries (countries) for Colombia Top 5 import asymmetries (countries) for Colombia

Reported exports

Mirror imports

X-M% RA (abs)

Reported imports

Mirror exports

M-X% RA (abs)

1 USA 22,216 25,225 -3,008 6.3% 1 China 9,565 6,229 3,336 21.1%2 Germany 395 1,782 -1,387 63.7% 2 USA 14,140 16,395 -2,254 7.4%3 Netherlands 2,503 1,355 1,148 29.8% 3 Mexico 6,362 5,592 770 6.4%4 United Kingdom 1,129 1,639 -510 18.4% 4 Canada 1,133 829 304 15.5%5 Israel 526 17 509 93.7% 5 Korea 1,288 1,468 -180 6.5%

Top 5 export asymmetries (countries) for Costa Rica Top 5 import asymmetries (countries) for Costa Rica

Reported exports

Mirror imports

X-M% RA (abs)

Reported imports

Mirror exports

M-X% RA (abs)

1 USA 4,307 12,303 -7,996 48.1% 1 USA 9,519 7,198 2,321 13.9%2 China 327 5,270 -4,944 88.3% 2 China 1,446 902 544 23.2%3 Netherlands 850 4,114 -3,264 65.8% 3 Japan 561 954 -393 26.0%4 Mexico 315 3,259 -2,944 82.4% 4 Mexico 1,187 993 194 8.9%5 Singapore 62 746 -684 84.6% 5 Israel 44 231 -187 68.0%

Top 5 export asymmetries (countries) for Korea Top 5 import asymmetries (countries) for Korea

Reported exports

Mirror imports

X-M% RA (abs)

Reported imports

Mirror exports

M-X% RA (abs)

1 China 134,322 168,728 -34,406 11.4% 1 Singapore 9,676 16,576 -6,900 26.3%2 Mexico 9,042 13,341 -4,299 19.2% 2 China 80,782 87,674 -6,892 4.1%3 Germany 7,510 10,838 -3,328 18.1% 3 Japan 64,363 61,538 2,825 2.2%4 France 2,827 5,601 -2,774 32.9% 4 Russia 11,354 13,865 -2,512 10.0%5 Singapore 22,888 25,626 -2,738 5.6% 5 Australia 22,988 20,541 2,447 5.6%

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Services Trade asymmetries - examples

Top 5 services export asymmetries (countries) for United Kingdom Top 5 services import asymmetries (countries) for United KingdomReported

exportsMirror

imports X-M

% RA (abs)

Reported imports

Mirror exports M-X

% RA (abs)

1 USA 60,147 45,669 14,478 13.7% 1 USA 29,038 52,970 -23,932 29.2%

2 Germany 16,666 26,349 -9,683 22.5% 2 Ireland 6,391 20,924 -14,533 53.2%

3 Spain 8,375 17,489 -9,115 35.2% 3 Germany 14,018 28,277 -14,259 33.7%

4 Australia 8,979 5,271 3,708 26.0% 4 Spain 15,008 26,614 -11,606 27.9%

5 Korea 2,173 5,096 -2,924 40.2% 5 Netherlands 6,244 13,347 -7,103 36.3%

Top 5 services export asymmetries (countries) for Korea Top 5 services import asymmetries (countries) for KoreaReported

exportsMirror

imports X-M

% RA (abs)

Reported imports

Mirror exports M-X

% RA (abs)

1 USA 15,858 11,025 4,833 18.0% 1 USA 26,831 16,767 10,064 23.1%

2 United Kingdom 3,765 615 3,150 71.9% 2 Japan 8,934 3,465 5,469 44.1%

3 Japan 9,954 8,018 1,936 10.8% 3 United Kingdom 5,096 2,173 2,924 40.2%

4 Canada 1,362 355 1,007 58.6% 4 Germany 4,315 2,878 1,437 20.0%

5 France 837 1,236 -399 19.2% 5 France 1,609 2,499 -890 21.7%

Top 5 services export asymmetries (countries) for Luxembourg Top 5 services import asymmetries (countries) for LuxembourgReported

exportsMirror

imports X-M

% RA (abs)

Reported imports

Mirror exports M-X

% RA (abs)

1 Germany 12,224 5,137 7,087 40.8% 1 Germany 5,600 9,994 -4,393 28.2%

2 United Kingdom 9,679 2,829 6,850 54.8% 2 USA 2,610 6,018 -3,408 39.5%

3 Ireland 988 7,106 -6,118 75.6% 3 Italy 2,614 1,064 1,551 42.2%

4 Belgium 6,349 3,853 2,496 24.5% 4 France 4,139 5,622 -1,483 15.2%

5 France 7,262 5,013 2,250 18.3% 5 United Kingdom 5,141 4,031 1,110 12.1%

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Supply-Use and Input-Output Tables

– Supply-Use: Tables at Purchasers and Basic Prices….. preferably every year ……• but if not: at the very least periodically and

recent, with supporting National Accounts information on value-added and output by industry and all categories of final demand

– And supporting import flow tables

22

TIVA HIGHLIGHTS AND

POLICY IMPLICATIONS

Policy implications: services matter

• GVCs have changed the nature of competitiveness – Fragmentation of Production means that

improving competitiveness in exporting sectors is as much about efficiencies upstream as it is in the exporting sector.

– This includes services – both imported and domestically provided.

230.0

10.0

20.0

30.0

40.0

50.0

60.0

70.0

80.0

90.0

IDN

CH

N

CH

L

MEX

RU

S

NO

R

BR

A

CA

N

ZAF

KO

R

SVK

CZE

AU

S

JPN

HU

N

PO

L

SVN

NLD

TUR

NZL ITA

DEU

USA

CH

E

EST

FRA

ISR

AU

T

SWE

PR

T

FIN

IND

DN

K

BEL

ESP

GB

R

ISL

IRL

GR

C

LUX

Domestic content Foreign content Total 1995

Policy implications: services matter

• Access to efficient services (services trade liberalisation) through all modes of supply, including through foreign presence (Mode 3)

• Improving behind the border measures that restrict services imports via all modes; OECD STRI illustrates that significant gains can by made through uni-, pluri-, and multi-lateral actions

24

0%

10%

20%

30%

Agr

icul

ture

Min

ing

Foo

d pr

oduc

ts

Tex

tiles

& a

ppar

el

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pap

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equi

pmen

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Tra

nspo

rt eq

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ent

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Foreign service contents Domestic service contents 1995 Total

Policy implications: protecting who?

• Significant import content of exports means that protectionist measures can be counter-productive

• Affecting competitiveness of exporters using the imports

• But also upstream exporters providing intermediates subsequently re-imported

Import content of Exports, all countries and China

25

26

Significant share of total intermediate imports used in exports in many countries

Policy implications: tariffs can be multiplicative

27

Policy implications: trade facilitation

• Trade facilitation: transforming border bottlenecks into global gateways

OECD Trade Facilitation Indicators

• Standard setting: avoiding unnecessary restrictions28

3.0%

2.3%

1.6%

2.7%

2.2% 2.1%

2.8%2.4%

1.6%

2.1% 2.0%

1.1%

0.0%

0.5%

1.0%

1.5%

2.0%

2.5%

3.0%

3.5%

Documents Automation Information availability

Documents Procedures Automation Procedures Automation Governance and

impartiality

Automation Information availability

Advance rulings

Low income Lower middle income Upper middle income OECD

29

Regions still matter

Domestic; 60.7%

Germany; 8.2%

US; 3.6%

Italy; 3.2%

OtherEurope; 14.8%

Asia; 4.4% Rest of the world; 5.1%

France: Motor vehicles, 2009

Domestic; 69.1%

US; 2.4%

UK; 2.4%

France; 2.1%

OtherEurope; 16.3%

Asia; 3.4% Rest of the world; 4.4%

Germany: Motor vehicles, 2009

Domestic; 40.6%

US; 20.1%

China; 9.6%

Japan; 9.4%

Europe; 7.4%

Other Asia; 6.8%

Rest of the world; 6.1%

Mexico: Electronics, 2009

Domestic; 55.4%

China; 12.1%

Chinese Taipei; 4.7%

Japan; 4.1%

Europe; 5.6%

Other Asia; 8.3%

Rest of the world; 9.9%

Korea: Electronics, 2009

Regions still matter

• TiVA data may provide insights for increased export penetration within regional GVCs.

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Who trades with who?

• GVCs complicate the way we view interactions between producers and consumers, and TiVA highlights the true nature of these linkages

31

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

2009 1995 2009 1995 2009 1995 2009 1995 2009 1995 2009 1995 2009 1995 2009 1995 2009 1995 2009 1995 2009 1995 2009 1995 2009 1995

Chinese Taipei

Japan Korea Malaysia Thailand Hong Kong, China

Singapore Philippines India Indonesia Viet Nam Cambodia Brunei Darussalam

Value-Added Gross

32

The more distant the countries the more likely that gross trade statistics underestimate the relationship

Change in trade shares based on Value-Added in

-6

-4

-2

0

2

4

6

8

10

TWN KOR

PHL

JPN MYS

AUS

THA

SAU

RUS

EU27 IDN TU

RAR

GBR

A IND CHN ZAF

VNM ISR

KHM CAN

MEX

Exports Imports

-3.5

-3

-2.5

-2

-1.5

-1

-0.5

0

0.5

1

PHL

TWN THA

MYS JPN KOR ISR AUS

USA

RUS

EU27 ZA

FIND IDN CA

NVN

M MEX

TUR

CHN

KHM CH

LAR

G

Exports Imports

BrazilUnited States

33

… with significant changes in bilateral trade balances

0.0

5.0

10.0

15.0

20.0

25.0

30.0

USA JPN DEU GBR FRA CAN KOR RUS ITA AUS IND ESP MEX NLD HKG

Gross exports (EXGRSH) Domestic value added in foreign final demand (FDDVASH)

0.0

5.0

10.0

15.0

USA JPN DEU KOR AUS SAU TWN RUS BRA FRA IND ITA GBR CAN MYS

Gross imports (IMGRSH) Foreign value added in domestic final demand (FDFVASH)

-100,000

-50,000

0

50,000

100,000

150,000

200,000

250,000

USA GBR MEX FRA NLD VNM THA JPN BRA MYS TWN KOR

2009 Gross Trade surplus/deficit (TSGR) 2009 Value Added surplus/deficit (TSVAFD)

34

But …

• Important to remember that TiVA provides a macro-view, with averages and assumptions => the screwdriver view requires drilling down ...

• … significant insights into GVCs and competitiveness can be gained through complementary statistics

35

LINKING TRADE AND BUSINESS REGISTER DATA

TO ... STRUCTURAL BUSINESS STATISTICS

Relatively few firms export

(2008 data)

But ‘many’ large firms do …

(2008 data)

… and are responsible for considerable shares of exports …

39

… with a higher export intensity …

40

… and higher import intensities?

Ownership matters …

(% of total* export accounted for by top # enterprises)

* For EU countries, data refer to extra-EU exports instead of total

Austri

a

Czech

Rep

ublic

Eston

ia

Finla

nd

Franc

e

Germ

any

Hunga

ryIta

ly

Luxe

mbo

urg

Polan

d

Portu

gal

Slova

k Rep

ublic

Sweden

Unite

d Kin

gdom

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

Foreign controlled as % of firms % exports% imports

42

… and foreign owned firms have higher export intensities

43

Even a focus on the top exporters only can help

Most firms only trade with one or two partner countries

PR

T

CA

N*

HU

N

PO

L

SV

K

SW

E

US

A*

LU

X

FIN

NZ

L*

AU

T

SV

N

FR

A

ITA

TU

R*

ES

T

CZ

E

GR

C

DN

K

NL

D

GB

R

ES

P

DE

U0%

20

%4

0%

60

%8

0%

10

0%

1 partner country 2 partner countries 3-5 partner countries 6+ parnter countries

Firms trading with # number of partner countries, % total trading firms

45

... provides• complementary insights, but …• … may not always be coherent across datasets

Integration into the core accounting framework can overcome incoherence AND improve quality of TiVA through the measurement of heterogeneity, in a cost effective way – capitalising on existing data

More on this later

Linked data and FATS data ...

46

BUT TIVA IS ONLY PART OF THE STORY

Strong policy need for …

• Jobs Skills? And productivity for the upgrading story ... tasks not activities– Information by ISCO?

• Investment? – Creating a Trade-Investment Story

47

Jobs in the business sector* sustained by foreign final demand

48

* Business sector = ISIC Rev.3 divisions 10 to 74)

Source: OECD, Science, Technology and Industry Scoreboard, 2013

As a % of total business sector employment

But where challenges exist in measuring relative

productivity between exporting and non-exporting

firms and where greater coherence between jobs and value-added data is needed

49

Coherence ,coherence, coherence

• Coherence between jobs and value-added data ... a long standing need

• Heightened by GVC policy needs, especially as relative labour productivity of ‘GVC’ firms is likely to be higher

• Which includes differentiating between informal/formal activities

• And to fully understand GVCs – links to skills

Why Investment?

• Because value added does not always stick (compensation for use of knowledge based assets – where increasingly registration is determined by tax environment)

• And … statistically, the line between trade in services and property income is becoming more blurred, distorting value-added measures, …– requiring an extended accounting framework

that differentiates between foreign and domestically owned firms.

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Value Added of Foreign Affiliates – share of national total 2009 (ISIC B-N, excluding K)

51

Irela

nd

Hungary

Luxem

bourg

Slova

k Republic

Czech

Republic

Estonia

Poland

Sweden

United K

ingdom

Denmark

Norway

Netherla

nds

Austria

Finla

nd

Portugal

Germ

any

Slove

nia

France

SpainIta

ly0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

China’s hi-tech exports

52

2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 20090%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

100%

Others

Foreign wholly owned companies

Sino-Foreign Joint Ventures

Chinese State Owned

Source:

The contribution of foreign affiliates to domestic value added in exports, 2009.

Source: OECD AMNE and TiVA databases 53

Source: OECD illustrative estimates

Ireland’s VA to export ratios?

54

Chemicals ICT Total Economy0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

VA-Export (TiVA) RatioEx US affiliate GOS

Source: OECD illustrative estimates

Increase in US TiVA trade balance, adjusted for US affiliate trade in Ireland, 2009 $bn

55

Belgium France Germany Italy Japan Spain United Kingdom

0

0.5

1

1.5

2

2.5

3

3.5

China’s Trade surplus with the US?

56

100110120130140150160170180190200

$62bn

$16bn

Source: OECD illustrative estimates

Planned extensions

• Jobs Skills?– Information by ISCO?

• Investment? – Creating a Trade-Investment Story

• Improving quality– Dealing with heterogeneity

57

58

TiVA key assumptions, …

(1)All firms allocated to a particular industry have the same ‘ production’ function

(2)For a given product, imports by industries (firms) are sourced from the same mix of countries

59

but ...

• We know these assumptions don’t generally hold (especially with 2008 SNA). – Exporting firms typically import more– And have higher labour productivity than non-

exporters (in the same industry)

• Meaning that import content of export estimates are downward biased

• Requiring new approach to developing SU tables that better reflects today’s global production: – Linking across datasets

60

AN INTEGRATED ACCOUNTING FRAMEWORK

Expert Group on Extended SU tables

• To create an integrated economic accounting framework for globalisation

• More detailed SU tables:– Imports

• With all products at fob and separate column for residents expenditure abroad• Broken down by firm characteristics – and used to inform import flow tables

– Industries• More heterogeneity: Foreign/Domestic, Export/non-export, S/M/L

– Exports• Broken down by firm characteristic

– In the export column but also as an ‘of-which’ of output

• With non-residents expenditure and re-exports separately identified

– With transparent adjustments for some non-observed items (e.g. own account agricultural production)

– Jobs by industry row– Emissions by industry row– With new rows for property income flows: interest, distributed income of

corporations, reinvested earnings on FDI, investment income disbursements

– And, for BEPS: current taxes on income, wealth, etc 61

Use Table

62

ExporterNon-

ExporterExporter

Non-Exporter

ExporterNon-

ExporterExporter

Non-Exporter

ExporterNon-ExporterExporter Non-ExporterExporterNon-ExporterExporterNon-ExporterTaxes on ProductsSubididies on Products

Total Domestic intermediate Consumption

Total importsTotal intermediate ConsumptionValue-Addedof which

Mixed Income

Compensation of Employees

Gross Operating Surplus

Other Taxes on Production

Other Subsidies on Production

Total Outputof which

own-account production of software

own-account prodduction of R&D

other own-account production

of which - non-

residents expenditure

Industry 1 Industry 2Foreign Domestic Foreign Domestic HHFC GGFC GFCF

Changes in

Inventories

Vauables Exports of which re-exports

Industry 1

Industry 2

Foreign

Domestic

Foreign

Domestic

With exports broken down, ideally, by destination (main

partner countries/regions)

Import Use table

63

ExporterNon-

ExporterExporter

Non-Exporter

ExporterNon-

ExporterExporter

Non-Exporter

Industry 1Industry 2

Total importsTaxes/Subsidies on Imports

Industry 1 Industry 2Foreign Domestic Foreign Domestic HHFC GGFC GFCF

Changes in Inventories

Vauables Exports

of which: Residents

expenditure abroad

With separate tables made available broken down by main

country or region of origin ‘groupings’

Supply Table

64

ExporterNon-

ExporterExporter

Non-Exporter

ExporterNon-

ExporterExporter

Non-Exporter

ExporterNon-ExporterExporter Non-ExporterExporterNon-ExporterExporterNon-ExporterTotal of which

own-account production of software

own-account prodduction of R&D

other own-account production

Memorandum itemIndustry 1 Industry 2

Foreign Domestic Foreign DomesticTotal

Domestic Supply at Basic

Prices

Imports F.O.B

Taxes and Subsidies

on Products Total Supply

of which import taxes

/ subsidies

Industry 1

Industry 2

Foreign

Domestic

Foreign

Domestic

Extensions?

65

ExporterNon-

ExporterExporter

Non-Exporter

ExporterNon-

ExporterExporter

Non-Exporter

Property income payments - to abraod

of which

Interest

Distributed Income of Corporations

Reinvested Earnings on FDI

Investment Income Disbursements

Property Income payments - to abroad

of which

Interest

Distributed Income of Corporations

Reinvested Earnings on FDI

Investment Income Disbursements

Current taxes on income and wealth

Employment

Employees

Hours worked

Co2 emissions

Industry 1 Industry 2Foreign Domestic Foreign Domestic

66

MAINSTREAMING

67

A GVC for TiVA and TiVA+

• OECD is coordinating international effort to mainstream TiVA and Extended SU tables at the heart of the statistical information system

• Building regional networks and partnerships including WTO, Eurostat, UNESCWA, APEC, ECLAC, and ... ESCAP, AfDB to create a single international TiVA database and Inter-Country IO table

• Also working bilaterally with countries to improve underlying national data, and accelerate integration

68

THANK YOU FOR YOUR ATTENTION