development and the next generation world development report 2007 march 2007 (s)

Development and the Next GenerationWorld Development Report 2007March 2007 (S)www.worldbank.org/wdr2007

OutlineMotivationA higher base on which to build human capital to grow and reduce poverty even moreA large youth cohort is a potential demographic dividendStructure/framework of the reportApplying framework: policy messages

Demographic Windows of Opportunity

Overview figure 2 dem data

Percentage

openscloses in:year peak

Lao PDR19852010

Solomon Islands19752042

Papua New Guinea19652044

beyond 2050

Window remains open

Cambodia1995502005

Vietnam1970501985

Indonesia1970601990

Philippines1965751980

Window closes >10 years

Thailand1965451985

China1965451985

Window will close < 10 years

Japan1950451965

Window closed

Overview figure 2 dem window

1985Lao PDR

1975Solomon Islands

1965Papua New Guinea

beyond 2050beyond 2050

Window remains openWindow remains open

199550

197050

197060

196575

Window closes >10 yearsWindow closes >10 years

196545

196545

Window will close < 10 yearsWindow will close < 10 years

195045

Window closedWindow closed

Similar countries: Vanuatu,Samoa

Similar countries: Korea, Rep., Korea, Dem.Rep., Kazakhstan, Iran

Similar countries: Ireland, Germany, France, Czech Rep.

Similar countries: Tonga,Mongolia, Myanmar, Malaysia, FSM, Fiji

Year window opens

Year window closes

High Income Country Middle Income Country Low Income Country

Year

opens

closes in:

OutlineMotivationStructure/Framework of the Report5 Transitions3 Policy LensesApplying Framework: Policy Message

Human capital during 5 youth transitions key for poverty reduction and growth12100 % of CohortAge24Learning in school after primary-ageWorkingForming familiesParticipating in civic lifeTaking health risks

3 types of questions asked of each transition: a youth lens on policy

OpportunitiesCapabilitySecond-chancesPolicies affecting human capital formation during Youth transitions:

-- Economy widepolicies and insts: macro stability,invest. climate, governance, labor market regulations-- Education-- Training-- Health services -- Welfare & familyservices -- InfrastructureYouth LensesYouth friendlypolicies

Opportunity: Improve educational quality and relevance Inadequate preparation for adolescence Improve access to secondary; quality of basic

Relevance of education for jobs Curriculum reform, Flexibility in educ systemsLearning achievement may be lowFigure 3. PISA 2003 Mathematics Test ScoresSource: WDR 2007

Chart4

345384361

403473425

434525479

324452372

323452385

507581551

422526478

Poorest quintile students

Richest quintile students

Average

Sheet1

Figure 3The transition to secondary school is a stumbling block for many students

Indonesia 2002 (DHS)

gradeRich 20% MalePoor 40% Male

10.9970.977

20.9970.972

30.9960.957

40.9940.937

50.9930.902

60.9880.876

70.9670.609

80.9640.589

90.960.571

-------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Thailand 2002

-------------------------------------------------------------------------------

-------------------------

Attainment for ages 15-19

-------------------------

gradeRich20Poor40

10.9920.978

20.9920.977

30.9920.971

40.9920.964

50.9890.955

60.9880.946

70.9520.742

80.940.72

90.8760.583

Sheet1

00

00

00

00

00

00

00

00

00

Rich 20%

Poor 40%

Grade

Sheet2

00

00

00

00

00

00

00

00

00

Rich 20%

Poor 40%

Grade

Sheet3

Cambodia 2000

------------------------

------------------------

Attainment for ages 15-1

------------------------

gradeCambodiaLao PDR

10.8490.82

20.8210.789

30.7390.736

40.6240.663

50.4960.565

60.370.382

70.270.379

80.1910.308

90.1260.216

Sheet3

00

00

00

00

00

00

00

00

00

Cambodia

Lao PDR

Grade

Sheet4

cnamePoorest quintile of studentsAverage scoreRichest quintile of students

Indonesia345361384

Thailand403425473

Russian Federation434479525

Brazil324372452

Mexico323385452

Korea507551581

United States422478526

Sheet4

000

000

000

000

000

000

000

Poorest quintile students

Richest quintile students

Average

Sheet5

Sheet6

Opportunity: Facilitate entry to work

Promote growth that leads to greater youth employmentReform institutions that inhibit job creation for and mobility of unskilled young peopleExcessively high minimum wages or employment protectionOpening up opportunities to migrate

Across Borders: Migration broadens opportunity for youth Facilitate movement Reduce remit costs Info campaigns to reduce risks Improve invest climate at homeMigrants are concentrated among youth. (Figures: Migrants to South Africa and Migrants to United States)

OutlineMotivationStructure/Framework of the ReportApplying Framework: ExamplesOpportunity: Countries HAVE invested in access to human capital; lens focus on quality and relevance to labor marketCapabilitySecond-chances


OpportunitiesCapabilitySecond-chancesPolicies affecting human capital formation during Youth transitions:


Capable decision-making: % of youth who think they have the most influence on human capital decisions

Relieving the Information Constraint: Education in the Dominican RepublicMeasured = Actual earnings based on worker surveysPerceived = Earnings perceived by 8th grade boys if they finish prim or secPerceived returns < measured returns

Information campaigns in AND outside schools

Source: Jensen (2006)

But sometimes information may not be enough

Incentives also matter. Positive ones, likeconditional cash transfers:Mexicos Oportunidades:.2 more years of schooling at 13-15 reduced child morbidity and mortalityBangladeshs Female Secondary Stipend ProgramCambodias secondary scholarship program for girlsinvolve youth in program design esp those to change attitudes

Or negative ones like taxes

Chart7

-0.8

-0.464

-0.428

-1.985

-0.459

smoking smoking alcohol binge marijuana use drinking use

China U.S. High school students

Percent change

Impact of a one percent price increase

Sheet1

-0.8

-0.464

-0.428

-1.985

-0.459

a modest price increase of 33 percent could potentially prevent 66 million tobacco deaths over the next 50 years. Ninety percent of these averted deaths would be in low- and middle-income countries

smoking

smoking (China)

alcohol use (US high school students)

binge drinking (US high school students)

marijuana use (US high school students)

Sheet1

smoking smoking alcohol binge marijuana use drinking use

China U.S. High school students

Percent change

Impact of a one percent price increase

Sheet2

Sheet3

Sheet4

Sheet5

Sheet6

OutlineMotivationStructure/Framework of the ReportApplying Framework: ExamplesOpportunity: Capability: Policy targets Govts and now Parents; lens improve the capacity of youth to decide among opportunitiesSecond-chances:


OpportunitiesCapabilitySecond-Chances

Policies affecting human capital formation during Youth transitions:


Second-chances: Recovering from poor outcomesHigh costs of not giving young people another chance to recover:Effects are long-lastingLater recovery as adults is more costlyMay inhibit investment by others (e.g., high HIV/AIDS prevalence leads to lower investment)

Second-chances: Programs are more sustainable if they

are designed to attract young people (e.g., age-specific education, such as 1/2 of Malawian 19 yr-olds are in primary school; use peer educators) help youth reenter the mainstream (e.g., graduate equivalency programs)

Second-chances: Programs are more sustainable if they AustraliaJapanIndonesiaPhilippinesFranceMalaysiaThailandNew ZealandKorea, Rep. ofSingaporeSouth AfricaRussia FederationUnited StatesHong Kong, ChinaSource: WDR 2007.Countries incarcerate youth at different ratesProvide comprehensive support (demand and supply in employment programs) Promote restoration over retribution:Avoid harsh penalties: countries incarcerate youth at different ratesDont incarcerate youths with adultsProvide access to justiceHelp young confront consequences (South Africa Truth and Reconciliation Program)

Chart3

5.166804

3.820542

1.496342

1.188857

0.6678196

0.5681128

0.4714749

0.0684409

-0.059412

-0.3162451

-0.5735428

-0.805482

-2.683959

-3.263404

Deviation from International Average

Chart1

5.166804

3.820542

1.496342

1.188857

0.6678196

0.5681128

0.4714749

0.0684409

-0.059412

-0.3162451

Hong Kong,China

Singapore

Korea, Rep.

New Zealand

Thailand

Malaysia

Philippines

Indonesia

Japan

Australia

Deviation from International average

Sheet1

Figure 5

Country NameDeviation From International Average

Russian Federation5.166804

United States3.820542

Hong Kong, China1.496342

South Africa1.188857

Singapore0.6678196

Korea, Rep.0.5681128

New Zealand0.4714749

Thailand0.0684409

Malaysia-0.059412

France-0.3162451

Philippines-0.5735428FranceFranceFranceFranceFranceFranceFranceFranceFranceFranceFranceFranceFranceFranceFranceFranceFranceFranceFranceFranceFranceFranceFranceFranceFranceFranceFranceFranceFranceFranceFranceFranceFranceFranceFranceFranceFranceFranceFranceFranceFranceFranceFranceFranceFranceFranceFranceFranceFranceFranceFranceFranceFranceFranceFranceFranceFranceFranceFranceFranceFranceFranceFranceFranceFranceFranceFranceFranceFranceFranceFranceFranceFranceFranceFranceFranceFranceFranceFranceFranceFranceFranceFranceFranceFranceFranceFranceFranceFranceFranceFranceFranceFranceFranceFranceFranceFranceFranceFranceFranceFranceFranceFranceFranceFranceFranceFranceFranceFranceFranceFranceFranceFranceFranceFranceFranceFranceFranceFranceFranceFranceFranceFranceFranceFranceFranceFranceFranceFranceFranceFranceFranceFranceFranceFranceFranceFranceFranceFranceFranceFranceFranceFranceFranceFranceFranceFranceFranceFranceFranceFranceFranceFranceFranceFranceFranceFranceFranceFranceFranceFranceFranceFranceFranceFranceFranceFranceFranceFranceFranceFranceFranceFranceFranceFranceFranceFranceFranceFranceFranceFranceFranceFranceFranceFranceFranceFranceFranceFranceFranceFranceFranceFranceFranceFranceFranceFranceFranceFranceFranceFranceFranceFranceFranceFranceFranceFranceFranceFranceFranceFranceFranceFranceFranceFranceFranceFranceFranceFranceFranceFranceFranceFranceFranceFranceFranceFranceFranceFranceFranceFranceFranceFranceFranceFranceFranceFranceFranceFranceFranceFranceFrance

Indonesia-0.805482Russian FederationRussian FederationRussian FederationRussian FederationRussian FederationRussian FederationRussian FederationRussian FederationRussian FederationRussian FederationRussian FederationRussian FederationRussian FederationRussian FederationRussian FederationRussian FederationRussian FederationRussian FederationRussian FederationRussian FederationRussian FederationRussian FederationRussian FederationRussian FederationRussian FederationRussian FederationRussian FederationRussian FederationRussian FederationRussian FederationRussian FederationRussian FederationRussian FederationRussian FederationRussian FederationRussian FederationRussian FederationRussian FederationRussian FederationRussian FederationRussian FederationRussian FederationRussian FederationRussian FederationRussian FederationRussian FederationRussian FederationRussian FederationRussian FederationRussian FederationRussian FederationRussian FederationRussian FederationRussian FederationRussian FederationRussian FederationRussian FederationRussian FederationRussian FederationRussian FederationRussian FederationRussian FederationRussian FederationRussian FederationRussian FederationRussian FederationRussian FederationRussian FederationRussian FederationRussian FederationRussian FederationRussian FederationRussian FederationRussian FederationRussian FederationRussian FederationRussian FederationRussian FederationRussian FederationRussian FederationRussian FederationRussian FederationRussian FederationRussian FederationRussian FederationRussian FederationRussian FederationRussian FederationRussian FederationRussian FederationRussian FederationRussian FederationRussian FederationRussian FederationRussian FederationRussian FederationRussian FederationRussian FederationRussian FederationRussian FederationRussian FederationRussian FederationRussian FederationRussian FederationRussian FederationRussian FederationRussian FederationRussian FederationRussian FederationRussian FederationRussian FederationRussian FederationRussian FederationRussian FederationRussian FederationRussian FederationRussian FederationRussian FederationRussian FederationRussian FederationRussian FederationRussian FederationRussian FederationRussian FederationRussian FederationRussian FederationRussian FederationRussian FederationRussian FederationRussian FederationRussian FederationRussian FederationRussian FederationRussian FederationRussian FederationRussian FederationRussian FederationRussian FederationRussian FederationRussian FederationRussian FederationRussian FederationRussian FederationRussian FederationRussian FederationRussian FederationRussian FederationRussian FederationRussian FederationRussian FederationRussian FederationRussian FederationRussian FederationRussian FederationRussian FederationRussian FederationRussian FederationRussian FederationRussian FederationRussian FederationRussian FederationRussian FederationRussian FederationRussian FederationRussian FederationRussian FederationRussian FederationRussian FederationRussian FederationRussian FederationRussian FederationRussian FederationRussian FederationRussian FederationRussian FederationRussian FederationRussian FederationRussian FederationRussian FederationRussian FederationRussian FederationRussian FederationRussian FederationRussian FederationRussian FederationRussian FederationRussian FederationRussian FederationRussian FederationRussian FederationRussian FederationRussian FederationRussian FederationRussian FederationRussian FederationRussian FederationRussian FederationRussian FederationRussian FederationRussian FederationRussian FederationRussian FederationRussian FederationRussian FederationRussian FederationRussian FederationRussian FederationRussian FederationRussian FederationRussian FederationRussian FederationRussian FederationRussian FederationRussian FederationRussian FederationRussian FederationRussian FederationRussian FederationRussian FederationRussian FederationRussian FederationRussian FederationRussian FederationRussian FederationRussian FederationRussian FederationRussian FederationRussian FederationRussian FederationRussian FederationRussian FederationRussian FederationRussian FederationRussian FederationRussian FederationRussian FederationRussian FederationRussian FederationRussian FederationRussian FederationRussian FederationRussian Federation

Japan-2.683959United StatesUnited StatesUnited StatesUnited StatesUnited StatesUnited StatesUnited StatesUnited StatesUnited StatesUnited StatesUnited StatesUnited StatesUnited StatesUnited StatesUnited StatesUnited StatesUnited StatesUnited StatesUnited StatesUnited StatesUnited StatesUnited StatesUnited StatesUnited StatesUnited StatesUnited StatesUnited StatesUnited StatesUnited StatesUnited StatesUnited StatesUnited StatesUnited StatesUnited StatesUnited StatesUnited StatesUnited StatesUnited StatesUnited StatesUnited StatesUnited StatesUnited StatesUnited StatesUnited StatesUnited StatesUnited StatesUnited StatesUnited StatesUnited StatesUnited StatesUnited StatesUnited StatesUnited StatesUnited StatesUnited StatesUnited StatesUnited StatesUnited StatesUnited StatesUnited StatesUnited StatesUnited StatesUnited StatesUnited StatesUnited StatesUnited StatesUnited StatesUnited StatesUnited StatesUnited StatesUnited StatesUnited StatesUnited StatesUnited StatesUnited StatesUnited StatesUnited StatesUnited StatesUnited StatesUnited StatesUnited StatesUnited StatesUnited StatesUnited StatesUnited StatesUnited StatesUnited StatesUnited StatesUnited StatesUnited StatesUnited StatesUnited StatesUnited StatesUnited StatesUnited StatesUnited StatesUnited StatesUnited StatesUnited StatesUnited StatesUnited StatesUnited StatesUnited StatesUnited StatesUnited StatesUnited StatesUnited StatesUnited StatesUnited StatesUnited StatesUnited StatesUnited StatesUnited StatesUnited StatesUnited StatesUnited StatesUnited StatesUnited StatesUnited StatesUnited StatesUnited StatesUnited StatesUnited StatesUnited StatesUnited StatesUnited StatesUnited StatesUnited StatesUnited StatesUnited StatesUnited StatesUnited StatesUnited StatesUnited StatesUnited StatesUnited StatesUnited StatesUnited StatesUnited StatesUnited StatesUnited StatesUnited StatesUnited StatesUnited StatesUnited StatesUnited StatesUnited StatesUnited StatesUnited StatesUnited StatesUnited StatesUnited StatesUnited StatesUnited StatesUnited StatesUnited StatesUnited StatesUnited StatesUnited StatesUnited StatesUnited StatesUnited StatesUnited StatesUnited StatesUnited StatesUnited StatesUnited StatesUnited StatesUnited StatesUnited StatesUnited StatesUnited StatesUnited StatesUnited StatesUnited StatesUnited StatesUnited StatesUnited StatesUnited StatesUnited StatesUnited StatesUnited StatesUnited StatesUnited StatesUnited StatesUnited StatesUnited StatesUnited StatesUnited StatesUnited StatesUnited StatesUnited StatesUnited StatesUnited StatesUnited StatesUnited StatesUnited StatesUnited StatesUnited StatesUnited StatesUnited StatesUnited StatesUnited StatesUnited StatesUnited StatesUnited StatesUnited StatesUnited StatesUnited StatesUnited StatesUnited StatesUnited StatesUnited StatesUnited StatesUnited StatesUnited StatesUnited StatesUnited StatesUnited StatesUnited StatesUnited StatesUnited StatesUnited StatesUnited StatesUnited StatesUnited StatesUnited StatesUnited StatesUnited StatesUnited StatesUnited StatesUnited StatesUnited StatesUnited StatesUnited StatesUnited StatesUnited StatesUnited StatesUnited StatesUnited StatesUnited StatesUnited States

Australia-3.263404South AfricaSouth AfricaSouth AfricaSouth AfricaSouth AfricaSouth AfricaSouth AfricaSouth AfricaSouth AfricaSouth AfricaSouth AfricaSouth AfricaSouth AfricaSouth AfricaSouth AfricaSouth AfricaSouth AfricaSouth AfricaSouth AfricaSouth AfricaSouth AfricaSouth AfricaSouth AfricaSouth AfricaSouth AfricaSouth AfricaSouth AfricaSouth AfricaSouth AfricaSouth AfricaSouth AfricaSouth AfricaSouth AfricaSouth AfricaSouth AfricaSouth AfricaSouth AfricaSouth AfricaSouth AfricaSouth AfricaSouth AfricaSouth AfricaSouth AfricaSouth AfricaSouth AfricaSouth AfricaSouth AfricaSouth AfricaSouth AfricaSouth AfricaSouth AfricaSouth AfricaSouth AfricaSouth AfricaSouth AfricaSouth AfricaSouth AfricaSouth AfricaSouth AfricaSouth AfricaSouth AfricaSouth AfricaSouth AfricaSouth AfricaSouth AfricaSouth AfricaSouth AfricaSouth AfricaSouth AfricaSouth AfricaSouth AfricaSouth AfricaSouth AfricaSouth AfricaSouth AfricaSouth AfricaSouth AfricaSouth AfricaSouth AfricaSouth AfricaSouth AfricaSouth AfricaSouth AfricaSouth AfricaSouth AfricaSouth AfricaSouth AfricaSouth AfricaSouth AfricaSouth AfricaSouth AfricaSouth AfricaSouth AfricaSouth AfricaSouth AfricaSouth AfricaSouth AfricaSouth AfricaSouth AfricaSouth AfricaSouth AfricaSouth AfricaSouth AfricaSouth AfricaSouth AfricaSouth AfricaSouth AfricaSouth AfricaSouth AfricaSouth AfricaSouth AfricaSouth AfricaSouth AfricaSouth AfricaSouth AfricaSouth AfricaSouth AfricaSouth AfricaSouth AfricaSouth AfricaSouth AfricaSouth AfricaSouth AfricaSouth AfricaSouth AfricaSouth AfricaSouth AfricaSouth AfricaSouth AfricaSouth AfricaSouth AfricaSouth AfricaSouth AfricaSouth AfricaSouth AfricaSouth AfricaSouth AfricaSouth AfricaSouth AfricaSouth AfricaSouth AfricaSouth AfricaSouth AfricaSouth AfricaSouth AfricaSouth AfricaSouth AfricaSouth AfricaSouth AfricaSouth AfricaSouth AfricaSouth AfricaSouth AfricaSouth AfricaSouth AfricaSouth AfricaSouth AfricaSouth AfricaSouth AfricaSouth AfricaSouth AfricaSouth AfricaSouth AfricaSouth AfricaSouth AfricaSouth AfricaSouth AfricaSouth AfricaSouth AfricaSouth AfricaSouth AfricaSouth AfricaSouth AfricaSouth AfricaSouth AfricaSouth AfricaSouth AfricaSouth AfricaSouth AfricaSouth AfricaSouth AfricaSouth AfricaSouth AfricaSouth AfricaSouth AfricaSouth AfricaSouth AfricaSouth AfricaSouth AfricaSouth AfricaSouth AfricaSouth AfricaSouth AfricaSouth AfricaSouth AfricaSouth AfricaSouth AfricaSouth AfricaSouth AfricaSouth AfricaSouth AfricaSouth AfricaSouth AfricaSouth AfricaSouth AfricaSouth AfricaSouth AfricaSouth AfricaSouth AfricaSouth AfricaSouth AfricaSouth AfricaSouth AfricaSouth AfricaSouth AfricaSouth AfricaSouth AfricaSouth AfricaSouth AfricaSouth AfricaSouth AfricaSouth AfricaSouth AfricaSouth AfricaSouth AfricaSouth AfricaSouth AfricaSouth AfricaSouth AfricaSouth AfricaSouth AfricaSouth AfricaSouth AfricaSouth AfricaSouth AfricaSouth AfricaSouth AfricaSouth AfricaSouth AfricaSouth AfricaSouth AfricaSouth Africa

Source: WDR 2007.

Sheet1

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

Deviation from International Average

Figures

Figure 1: Interest in Politics Among Youth Aged 18-24

Source: Authors' Calculations Based on World Values Survey 1990-2000

19902000

Low Income CountriesNigeria*33.6954.14

India*35.846.86

China71.7878.05

Middle Income CountriesTurkey*49.839.58

Russia*43.5327.07

Argentina*29.6312.12

High Income CountriesFinland*52.9419.78

Slovenia*53.6432.08

Britain37.9836.98

Figure 2: Confidence in the Civil Service Among Youth Aged 18-24

Source: Authors' Calculations Based on World Values Survey 1990-2000

199019952000

Low Income Countries22.0334.462.31

Lower Middle Income Countries52.9651.8542.15

Upper Middle Income Countries60.6460.4832.26

High Income Countries60.5864.2539.52

Figure 3: Proportion Willing to give up income to prevent environmental pollution

Source: Authors' Calculations Based on World Values Survey 2000

25 and over18-24

EAP*0.82121120.8758389

LAC*0.73119570.8087578

SAR*0.72288660.7761194

ECA*0.64196850.7108474

AFR0.5988910.6076862

OECD*0.60.6837964

Figure 4: Urban Youth Registered to Vote

Source: Authors' Calculations Based on Chile National Youth Surveys 1997-2003

18-2021-2425-29

1997364977

2000133259

200361945

Figure 5

Country NameCountry CodeSecondary School EnrollmentYear of Enrollment DataLn(Young people in Population)Ln(Young People in Prison)(Ln GDP Per Capita)Deviation From International Average

AustraliaAUS153.74200214.593923.18515310.17485-3.263404

Hong Kong, ChinaHKG80.23200212.072546.71233910.138961.496342

IndonesiaIDN60.72200217.514966.0466278.053887-0.805482

JapanJPN102.01200215.869254.33615310.17225-2.683959

Korea, Rep.KOR89.84200214.241436.6237019.7209460.5681128

MalaysiaMYS70.28200215.530756.3093119.071998-0.059412

New ZealandNZL117.53200212.948016.0147419.9062830.4714749

PhilippinesPHL83.98200216.699756.0107978.291296-0.5735428

SingaporeSGP74.09200213.691086.5846610.013010.6678196

ThailandTHA81.35200216.208586.6296118.7712150.0684409

FranceFRA108.93200215.13946.3664510.17515-0.3162451

Russian FederationRUS95.02200215.3772311.404718.908835.166804

United StatesUSA94.15200217.3119311.6249110.430343.820542

South AfricaZAF87.7200216.114597.8841919.1748171.188857

Box Figure 7.1 and 7.2

person_idweightageage_abductedearnings_gapliterateliterate2

12.52115.83333-0.729904611

22.52925.91667-6.676370900

312319.66667-2.542087401

42.51815.16667-0.492089711

511815.41667-0.6028505501

612520.66667-3.161297911

712316.33333-0.8566347501

83.8888892911

912825.91667-6.675941111

1012217-1.096460711

1111411.5-0.0452029211

122.51914-0.219883511

1312618-1.681268801

1413026.83333-7.231027611

1512315.5-0.6216879511

1611711.66667-0.0914405600

1711511.75-0.074240211

183.8888891401

192.53020.25-2.892930400

2012521.91667-4.088977711

2112310.25-0.0221558100

2211512.66667-0.1495929701

2312523.25-4.951035511

241199.50.0116507500

253.8888891911

262.5176.1666671.850845911

2711811.83333-0.0566025911

2812013.5-0.1679670901

2912117.75-1.607023811

3011915.5-0.5964630411

312.53025.58333-6.465929100

3211512.75-0.103310501

332.52921.66667-3.905783101

343.8888891611

3511411.41667-0.0246187501

3611512.08333-0.0563998711

3713024.5-5.759726511

3811411.66667-0.100700700

3911511.58333-0.0843199111

4011611.5-0.0533621811

4111612.83333-0.1196648611

422.52816.66667-0.8982861411

433.8888891611

4411814.91667-0.4399377311

4513021-3.394795201

462.52317.75-1.602619101

4712016.83333-0.9545795911

4811513.83333-0.1694981211

4931511

5012410-0.0219841801

5111411.08333-0.0151781901

5212016.91667-1.057269211

5332900

5431411

5532011

5632101

5711712.41667-0.0941985911

5811813.58333-0.1881293511

5912523.08333-4.839535901

6011810.5-0.0173863911

6111411.75-0.0670648201

6212813.25-0.152245411

6313027-7.313691711

6411813.16667-0.1603175411

6511511-0.0057214501

6612014-0.2229781201

671197.4166671.163846901

6812013.5-0.1684324611

6913015.41667-0.5862581911

7011714.66667-0.3186644511

711225.4166672.340510111

7221913.58333-0.1889183900

7311512.33333-0.0833623511

7412113.33333-0.1420758801

7512510.33333-0.0213056801

763.6666672011

7711514-0.2164624711

7813020-2.746512801

791189.3333330.0443099811

8011511.66667-0.0831835811

812188.0833330.8125260211

8221913-0.1202716111

8321715-0.4404331411

8412523.83333-5.329762600

8511613.75-0.1759428611

8621514.25-0.2106907411

8711613-0.132737611

883.6666671411

8912410.33333-0.0211998611

903.6666671911

9112013.41667-0.1527525111

9212522.66667-4.57647200

933.6666671911

9413019.66667-2.540318800

953.6666671911

9611712-0.0746254900

973.6666672511

9811512.5-0.1191410601

9921411.83333-0.0353122611

10012917-1.142210701

10113016-0.7591592700

10212214.58333-0.3103095601

10322211.66667-0.0930344100

1042.52620.91667-3.334655101

1053.8888891811

10612624.08333-5.487193700

10712112-0.0853035211

10832411

10932111

11032500

11113029.16667-8.398310811

11231711

11332400

11432601

11531611

11631711

11811412.91667-0.1128770600

11932511

12032211

12111917.66667-1.576891611

12211915.83333-0.7265367211

12331501

12431611

12531401

12631511

12732511

12811513.25-0.1476690501

1291176.4166671.711372311

13031811

13111917.58333-1.541037111

13222722.33333-4.352939311

13311412.25-0.0634106401

13412516.25-0.8303847911

13522014.66667-0.2998886211

13612017.08333-1.214264511

13711511.41667-0.0307654411

13812016.83333-1.019072411

13913019.58333-2.481661511

1403.2222222111

1413.2222222311

14211814.41667-0.1901984311

1433.2222222111

14412619-2.141203701

14513021.58333-3.847540311

14612617.83333-1.602996201

1473.2222222611

14813020.83333-3.275985611

14911812.66667-0.1384040201

1503.2222222301

15111410.58333-0.0163140701

15211513-0.132468611

15313019.83333-2.646447701

15413025.5-6.411266411

15513023.5-5.114007300

1563.2222221811

15711411.83333-0.0306585411

15813016.75-0.92956911

15912018.16667-1.741175611

16012013.83333-0.1680684300

16112717.75-1.597977311

16212918.58333-1.926204201

16312518.41667-1.858362911

16412011.08333-0.0167491611

16511813.41667-0.1545946901

1661159.4166670.0262212911

16712413.91667-0.2257466111

16811511.41667-0.037216311

1691176.751.533565811

1701209.916667-0.0229260611

1711146.51.666145311

17211814.58333-0.3146001211

17312315.91667-0.735909311

17411612.5-0.1219906800

17511814.83333-0.3522648411

17611810.91667-0.0162858411

17711712.08333-0.0605478700

17812017.66667-1.571656900

17911511.91667-0.0642718411

18011511-0.0076330411

18112515.25-0.5156579111

18212514.41667-0.2288190901

18311911.33333-0.0190902111

18413023.75-5.277748100

1853.8888891711

1862.52520.58333-3.105785411

1873.8888893011

1881144.752.824155701

18912923.33333-5.011582811

19011814.58333-0.3000012911

19111614.5-0.3020187311

19211512.08333-0.0404919211

1932.8888892901

1942.8888893000

19512812.41667-0.0836768811

19612515.5-0.5842862111

19711915.91667-0.7273565101

19812118.33333-1.81935801

19912917.41667-1.429071111

2002.8888891411

2011146.5833331.621469601

20212518.91667-2.088351300

20312012.66667-0.1189037811

20412219.58333-2.48935211

2052.8888892100

2063.2222221611

20711412.91667-0.1224925401

2082.8888891401

20913025.58333-6.465929111

21012519.5-2.442122711

21112522.66667-4.57647200

21212520.91667-3.334593511

21312921.33333-3.650469211

21412521.83333-4.033517811

21512927.75-7.728823900

2162.8888892811

21711810.25-0.023493300

2182.8888892811

21911511.83333-0.0393227711

2202.8888891811

22112620.33333-2.944453701

22212213.75-0.1761212601

22312523-4.788800400

2241159.3333330.0443081611

22512521.08333-3.456357111

2263.6666672011

22713013.5-0.1681750711

22811613-0.1388960511

22911512.91667-0.1272607611

2303.6666672111

2312.8888892211

2321217.1666671.303244100

23311412.75-0.103673701

23412211.83333-0.0438872311

23512016.75-0.9262280311

23611612.75-0.1087555800

23713016.33333-0.8552337111

23812219.75-2.592742411

2391148.250.7200173200

2403.1111112311

24111913.08333-0.1490271411

24212013-0.1445675400

24311715-0.4541977611

24413028-7.860201401

24512827.08333-7.361195911

24612119-2.136139511

24712820.08333-2.793037611

24811613.83333-0.1695741300

2493.1111111911

25012622.83333-4.687706711

2513.1111112511

2523.1111111601

25311814.5-0.2992783700

25412118.41667-1.857134401

2551149.666667-0.0085247501

2563.1111111911

25711913.5-0.1849074911

25812723.66667-5.217343811

25913028-7.844270811

26012218.5-1.882300111

26112521.75-3.969656801

26211612.5-0.1296583911

2633.1111111811

26411890.2482036301

26513022-4.143327301

26612215.25-0.5422412801

26712512-0.062507601

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2692.8888892500

27011814-0.2050801611

27111411.91667-0.0661396911

27212015.66667-0.6308971311

27311612.66667-0.1029680611

27412512.41667-0.0881508501

2751208.6666670.4681146211

27611612.33333-0.0824212101

2772.52920.5-3.053087211

27811813.25-0.1458576411

27912623.16667-4.900128511

2803.1111111611

28111711-0.010444511

28212824.25-5.600096511

28311914.41667-0.3009249201

2841167.4166671.163846911

28511511.91667-0.0754840411

28612414-0.1986848411

28711511.66667-0.0919762411

28811612.58333-0.1514745800

28911917-1.13341611

30012110.83333-0.0215866501

30113014.16667-0.2099699800

3023.2222222511

3031.5555562511

3041.5555561411

3051.5555562011

3061.5555561511

30712013.75-0.1703931311

3081.5555561401

3092.5208.750.4132103411

31012313.66667-0.188943411

3111.5555561611

31212521.75-3.969656811

31311880.8646231700

31412625.41667-6.355490201

3153.2222222611

3161.5555562501

3171.5555562200

3181.5555563001

3191.5555561811

32013024.08333-5.494596301

32112011.08333-0.0185473400

32213022.41667-4.404110400

3231.5555562511

3241.5555561800

3251.5555561700

32613019.25-2.293140211

32712618.41667-1.856446301

3281.5555561811

3291.5555563011

33011910.91667-0.0173573700

3311.5555562211

3321.5555562011

3331.5555562511

33412522.16667-4.249382911

33512925.66667-6.518702700

3361.5555561911

33712319.25-2.290294101

3383.8888892511

33921480.8646231701

34022914.16667-0.1904362311

3413.6666672411

34212715.66667-0.6296027511

3433.2222222311

34412519.66667-2.55183500

3453.2222221711

3463.2222221511

3471.5555561811

34812616.41667-0.8290152101

3491.5555561600

3501.5555561611

35112415.16667-0.4901332401

35213021.66667-3.905783100

3533.2222221600

3543.2222222511

3553.2222222001

3561227.8333330.9532687111

35712011.5-0.0572347811

3583.2222221800

35911815-0.4716723801

3601169.75-0.0165525611

3613.2222222511

3623.2222222011

36312913.41667-0.1547184500

3643.2222222511

36511713.66667-0.189917411

3663.2222222001

3673.2222221601

3683.2222221711

3693.2222222911

3703.2222221411

37112713.83333-0.2265907211

3721217.750.9964025200

3733.2222222211

3743.2222222601

37512516.08333-0.8077462311

3763.2222221511

3773.2222221411

37812725-6.086778211

37912723.91667-5.382011611

3801.5555561411

3811.5555562511

3821149.91666711

3831159.666667-0.0101521111

38411613.66667-0.1809382311

38512421-3.394691811

38611512.83333-0.1285011901

38711913.5-0.1880505411

38812413.41667-0.1561237611

38912217.41667-1.43094111

3903.1111111511

3911148.250.7160688101

39211814.75-0.3261320211

39311511.75-0.0520251911

3943.1111111411

39511510.83333-0.0222972111

3963.1111111811

3973.1111111401

39811815.16667-0.4776632311

3993.1111111401

4001179.0833330.1875238811

4013.6666671401

4023.6666672011

40312819.5-2.438951100

4041.5555561400

40511813.41667-0.1572772711

4061.5555561401

4071.5555561500

40811810.5-0.0173726311

4091.5555561501

4101199.916667-0.022553911

41113021.33333-3.650470400

4121.5555561411

4131.5555562500

41411452.615311901

41512812.91667-0.1306715311

4161.5555561711

4171.5555561511

41812314.66667-0.2954009900

4191.5555561611

42012514.5-0.2831175411

4211.5555561501

42213019.75-2.600069401

42312619.58333-2.493789911

42411710.5-0.0173143111

42512012.5-0.1343311400

42611815.16667-0.4998489311

42711510.75-0.0192168411

4281.5555561801

4291.5555561411

4301.5555561411

4311.5555561611

43212512.25-0.0724762201

4331.5555563011

43412010.33333-0.0207208900

4351.5555562511

43612815.33333-0.5898593500

4371.5555561401

4381.5555561900

4391.5555561411

44011511.16667-0.0099243200

4411.5555562811

44212011-0.0119906211

4431217.3333331.219850200

4443.8888891711

44512816.41667-0.80451601

4461197.4166671.163846911

4471.5555563011

4481.5555561911

44912714.33333-0.1883283211

45012513.16667-0.1549716411

45132011

45232811

45332311

45412920.5-3.052246111

45511513-0.1466996711

45612216.33333-0.8227612700

4573.8888891811

45813026.25-6.880099711

4592.52916.25-0.8287331911

4602.52115.58333-0.6041991111

4613.8888891811

46212518.41667-1.84775211

4633.8888891401

4643.8888891711

4653.8888891711

4663.8888891900

46712920.33333-2.943830801

46812217.5-1.45400811

46912517.25-1.287016111

4703.2222221711

4713.2222222801

4723.2222221911

4733.2222221401

47411611.58333-0.0843665311

4753.2222222011

4763.2222222011

47711512.58333-0.1339785411

47812618.58333-1.922440311

47911716.66667-0.899860511

4803.2222221411

4813.2222221911

48212011-0.0138514511

4833.2222222211

48412516.16667-0.8417813101

4851159.75-0.0168519511

4863.2222222011

48712617.5-1.447078500

48811813.41667-0.1576581811

48911812.25-0.0833366311

4902.8888893011

49112011.58333-0.0807141611

4922.8888891711

4932.8888892311

49412723.25-4.951035511

4951188.50.5705111311

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49713019.66667-2.549652911

4982.8888891411

4991148.750.4193552411

5002.8888891611

5012.8888891511

50212314.5-0.2814700411

50312521.25-3.584238211

50412213.33333-0.1439022111

50513026.83333-7.231027600

5062.8888892811

50711410.66667-0.017593500

50812818.66667-1.944268511

50911610-0.0218599711

51013026.91667-7.265883900

51111511.58333-0.0810077811

51212717.83333-1.604228511

5132.8888892100

5142.8888891611

51512219.41667-2.395202111

51612519.08333-2.180298811

51712618-1.674980211

5183.2222222311

51912218.58333-1.900153711

52012820.75-3.218368711

5213.2222221911

52211811.5-0.0622632711

52311610.91667-0.0065360311

52412414.33333-0.1750774711

5253.2222221401

5263.2222222611

52712218.41667-1.843675611

5283.2222221811

5293.2222221711

5303.1111111711

53112622.66667-4.57647211

53211413-0.1480287901

53311715.66667-0.6173947711

53411913.16667-0.1479899701

53512410.5-0.0172922611

5362.8888892800

53711712.66667-0.1017904100

5382.8888892111

53911712.41667-0.0961152101

5403.6666672411

5413.6666671511

5423.6666671611

54322017.75-1.589018611

5443.6666672000

5453.6666671811

5463.6666672011

54721811.66667-0.0914701900

5482169.75-0.0159322411

54912511.83333-0.0508812101

5501157.1666671.303244111

55111812.16667-0.0494413311

55212214.25-0.1949508311

5533.8888892811

5543.8888892611

5553.8888891611

55632211

5571.5555561611

55812415.66667-0.611128400

55912212.41667-0.0978486701

56011810.08333-0.0221537211

56113014-0.1773751911

56212314.25-0.1914345111

56312413.91667-0.2246302101

56411910.91667-0.0079372411

5653.2222222111

56612510.83333-0.0230014811

56712013.75-0.1645355901

5683.2222221411

56911410.41667-0.0194588411

57032811

57112016.5-0.8109844911

57233011

57312421.83333-4.033517811

57411711.08333-0.014986811

5753.2222222811

57612413-0.1494811401

57712720.83333-3.275878211

57811512.33333-0.0810651111

57912110.33333-0.0210916811

58011612.5-0.1381081911

58112824.75-5.925818311

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58331611

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5861159.4166670.026248811

5872.8888893011

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5892.8888892711

5902.8888892611

59113024-5.43449211

59212519.08333-2.179500101

5932.8888892511

5942.8888892601

5952.8888891511

59631400

59712017.16667-1.263771911

59812111.25-0.0168605311

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6003.8888892311

60112314.5-0.2942320411

6021148.50.5710808711

60332800

60412718.5-1.880678301

60531811

60611512.25-0.08705200

60732211

60832801

60931511

61011412.5-0.1304622600

61112813.33333-0.1438677611

61212412-0.0718913511

61312414.16667-0.1840354511

61431411

61531911

6161.5555562811

6171.5555561811

61812015.16667-0.497568601

6191.5555561911

6201219.1666670.1261653801

62112715-0.4428118601

6221.5555562011

6231.5555562511

6241.5555562611

6251.5555561511

6263.8888892611

62712317.16667-1.252234311

6283.8888893000

6292.5238.1666670.7669132801

6302.52721-3.394666811

6313.8888891401

6323.8888891411

6333.8888891411

6343.8888892211

6353.2222221501

63612514-0.1845520211

63722512-0.0560847911

63821580.857043411

63921613.33333-0.1457426911

6403.6666672811

6413.6666671511

64212318.08333-1.711674511

64312612.25-0.0731435211

6442158.4166670.6208270111

64511712.41667-0.0994294500

6462.8888891911

6472.8888892500

64812825.91667-6.675126601

64911815.25-0.5700301911

65012214-0.1929575511

65112212.16667-0.0558485901

6523.2222222211

65311610.33333-0.020948401

65411913-0.1521159500

6553.2222222411

65633011

6573.8888892811

6583.1111112711

65912013.25-0.1441863600

66011915.5-0.5783264211

6613.2222222011

66212013.41667-0.1562386501

66312819.08333-2.176700811

66412111.5-0.0681195511

6653.2222222511

6663.2222221511

6673.2222221711

6683.2222222611

6693.2222221511

6703.1111112011

67112619.5-2.436848411

6723.1111111511

6733.1111111401

6743.1111111711

6753.1111112811

67611912-0.0615536101

6773.1111111811

6783.1111112000

67912112.08333-0.0449990601

68012520.16667-2.83969301

6813.1111111411

68211810.5-0.0169203701

6833.1111112011

6843.1111113011

68511713.58333-0.1874044301

6863.1111111811

68711612.83333-0.1062185811

6883.1111112311

68911814.83333-0.3472005711

69012214.83333-0.350603811

69112825.08333-6.140531800

69212214.66667-0.2976607311

6933.2222221711

6943.2222222111

69512015.91667-0.7310688901

69612520.08333-2.792291100

69711712.41667-0.1038799800

6983.2222221711

69913016.16667-0.8263275201

7003.2222221401

70113016.66667-0.8888886411

7023.2222221701

7033.2222221601

7043.2222221711

7053.2222222211

7061147.3333331.20493411

7071178.1666670.7669132811

70812118.16667-1.736258411

70911410-0.021896811

71011571.386768211

7113.2222222311

7123.2222221911

71311915.83333-0.720121411

7143.8888892211

7153.6666671411

71611813-0.1503458611

7172.8888892601

7183.1111111511

7193.2222221811

7203.8888891811

72111714.33333-0.1726513311

72211915.58333-0.6013857311

72312217-1.130473511

72411813-0.1505826311

72511961.974368201

7263.1111112611

72712921.5-3.787678711

7283.8888891701

7293.8888891611

7303.6666671811

73111913.75-0.1678449711

73211611.58333-0.0805706311

73312117.75-1.571731700

73412821-3.394619100

73512522.41667-4.404110411

73612416.25-0.8260177701

73712413.41667-0.1648852811

7383.8888891711

7393.6666672811

7403.8888891711

74111610.25-0.0232388411

74222015.83333-0.7084097711

74312314.83333-0.3469134111

7443.1111112211

74511911.16667-0.0140390711

74612521.33333-3.650469911

7473.2222222011

74812317.91667-1.636235911

74912013.25-0.1407579301

7513.2222222900

7523.2222221511

75311812-0.0550617611

Australia

Figures

364977

133259

61945

18-20

21-24

25-29

Year of Chilean Youth Survey

Percent of Urban Youth registered to vote

Percent of Urban Youth Registered to Vote

Tables

0.4978769

0.6422186

0.8651666

0.9296982

0.9673548

Percentage of Youth (Ages 20-24) Perceiving Voting as a Duty

Civil Liberities

Percentage of Youth Who Perceive Voting as a Duty

Percentage of Youth (Ages 20-24) Who Perceive Voting as a Duty

0.5958495

0.7555601

0.8731825

0.9140778

0.9441995


Political Rights

Percentage of Youth Ages (20-24) Who Perceive Voting as a Duty


0.1420234

0.183219

0.2311519

0.2853735

0.3450039

0.4087594

Probability that Youth (ages 20-24) Ever Attended a Community Group Meeting

Political Rights

Probability that Youth (Ages 20-24) Ever Attended a Community Group Meeting

Probability that Youth (Ages 20-24) Ever Attended a Community Group Meeting

0.82121120.8758389

0.73119570.8087578

0.72288660.7761194

0.64196850.7108474

0.5988910.6076862

* Difference significant at < 5%

Source: Authors' Calculations from World Values Survey 1999-2000

25 and over

18-24

Proportion within Age Group

Proportion Willing to Give Up Income to Prevent Pollution

00

00

00

00

00

00

00

00

00

* Difference significant at < 5%

1990

2000

Selected Countries from the World Values Survey (1990-2000)

Percent of Youth Very or Rather Interested in Politics

Interest in Politics Among Youth Aged 18-24

Table 1: Interest in Politics

World Values Survey 2000

Age Groups

Low Income Countries18-2930-4445-6465+

India46.345.343.540.5

Indonesia53.341.728.418.9

Nigeria54.950.347.553.9

Uganda45.754.458.5-

Viet Nam76.979.482.080.7

Zimbabwe31.630.333.725.3

Middle Income Countries

Albania26.144.347.644.0

Argentina13.019.419.925.8

Bosnia and Herzegovina29.339.744.651.7

China74.765.374.883.3

Iran61.957.445.532.1

Poland30.637.453.241.5

Republic of Korea38.547.260.371.4

Russia28.837.847.839.8

Venezuela22.225.327.624.2

High Income Countries

Canada34.946.256.755.5

Finland22.121.535.132.8

France27.234.740.542.6

Iceland36.853.353.462.9

Japan43.748.975.784.1

USA58.559.371.683.5

Percentage of respondents in each age group reporting very or rather interested

Source: World Values Survey 2000

Table 2: Private Ownership of Busines Should be Increased

World Values Survey 2000

Age Groups

Low Income Countries18-2930-4445-6465+

India19.318.219.416.5

Indonesia4.98.013.318.0

Uganda39.440.141.5-

Viet Nam15.014.311.610.0

Zimbabwe33.834.943.230.0


Albania21.022.418.719.8

Argentina13.415.220.919.9

Bosnia and Herzegovina19.815.315.213.6

China10.58.14.8-

Iran8.610.38.03.7

Poland12.19.19.64.6

Republic of Korea7.09.414.311.1

Russia14.98.46.05.6

Venezuela16.720.824.723.3


Canada14.318.817.125.1

Finland5.78.211.913.2

France14.717.421.925.2

Iceland13.518.419.921.4

Japan4.96.58.317.5

USA24.824.326.434.2

Percentage in each age group reporting that private ownership of business should be increased

Source: World Values Survey 2000

Table 3: Discuss Politics with Friends

World Values Survey 2000 - Percent reporting occasionally or frequently

Age Groups

Low Income Countries18-29

OverallMaleFemaleDiff

India60.376.040.4*

Indonesia82.488.077.0**

Nigeria74.782.966.0*

Uganda73.073.672.4

Viet Nam75.882.169.9*

Zimbabwe44.058.630.9*


Albania70.581.960.9*

Argentina46.349.243.3

Bosnia and Herzegovina60.869.253.0*

China82.487.778.3

Iran76.779.773.5*

Poland72.072.671.4

Republic of Korea70.469.970.8

Russia70.374.066.4

Venezuela53.657.149.6


Canada57.964.451.0*

Finland62.764.260.8

France52.062.942.5*

Iceland66.360.972.5

Japan45.058.534.6*

USA65.167.161.9

Overall64.469.759.2*

* Denotes p

OutlineMotivationStructure/Framework of the ReportApplying Framework to SSA: ExamplesOpportunityCapabilitySecond-chances: Prevention; lens Help young people recover from poor outcomes

Moving forward in CountriesCoordination: youth outcomes require improved multi-sector effortsVoice: the constituency of youth is weak (which is why for this Report, we had extensive consultation)Evaluation: many youth-specific initiatives are still new; impact must be studiedProviding school uniforms not only increased enrollment in Kenya it lowered teenage pregnancy

This talk summarizes 3 points regarding: The motivation for the topic why has the WB focused on youth in its WDR? And why now? The structure and framework provide a readers guide Why applying the framework is useful to HD

This is a long report so this can serve as no more than a readers guide that will help you navigate through the report.

Why the focus on the next generation or those who are now youth, roughly those aged 12-24? The Report argues that there has never been a better time than now to invest in the human capital of young people. One reason is that there is a higher base on which to build which is fundamental if the world is to make further progress in growth and poverty reduction. While there are rightly concerns about meeting some countries meeting MDG goals, there have been dramatic improvements in key indicators over the recent past. Primary school completion rate is now over 80%, much higher than it was barely 20 years ago; Life expectancy at birth, now 66 years, has risen 50% in past 50 years. Not investing carries risks because these achievements come with new challenges regarding quantity and quality of school beyond primary levels; the ability of economies to deploy that human capital in good jobs; No longer dying of childhood diseases at same rates as before, but are now more suspectible to new disease esp those contracted thru risk-taking sexual behavior. A second reason is that this cohort, at 1.3 billion in developing countries, is the largest ever. This number will grow a bit but not much more in the next 20 years because of falling fertility. So, there is a youth bulge The number of young people in the EAP region is at historical peak of 450 million, accounting for one-third of the developing worlds 1.3 billion youth.Some see risks. In OECD during its most recent bulge the baby boom unemployment rates rose a percent for every percent increase in the share of this cohort in the population.But we think this is an enormous opportunity for the developing world because of the so-called demographic dividend. The present youth bulge means that they will enter the work force at a time when there will be relatively few non-working dependents not as many young children as before, bec of falling fertility; and not yet so many old people. The situation varies across countries.For some countries, this demographic window of falling dependency rates have closed because of aging populationsBut all developing countries: still open. True for most of the countries in EAP.For middle income countries such as China and Thailand, the window will close within 10 years (as they experienced falling fertility a long time ago). They need to invest in youth urgently if they are to take advantage of this opportunity.For lower income countries, the window will remain open for much longer.

To what extent is this window important economically? Experiences of EAP (esp that of EA tigers as a successful example) and LAC are often compared. Can look at experience of those who transitioned early In East Asia, a rapid demographic transition between 1965 and 1990 occurred at a time when a strong educational system and trade liberlaization enabled national economies to absorb this boom generation into the work force. Some argue that at least 25% of the growth during the E Asia miracle was due to this demographic dividend. Others, incl. many in LAC, had similar demographics but didnt cash in. So, the dividend is not automatic. The question is: can we draw lessons re policies and institutions esp for those that are looking forward to opening demographic windows of opportunity, including the poorest in the world.What are the policies and institutions that matter? This Report argues that decisions about the development and deployment of human capital during 5 youth transitions are key especially because if these decisions may lead to irreversibilities I.e., it is very costly to overcome later the costs of wrong decisions now. What are these transitions and why are they key? This diagram shows the share of the youth cohort that undergoes each of these transition stylized but based on actual data. Schooling: Hard to reverse dropping out early means it is difficult to get back in. More costly to teach adults.Entering the labor force: A smooth transition is important because (i) early job experience builds skills and (ii) prolonged unemployment can discourage.Taking health risks: A time of experimentation. Could lead to accidents, nutrition problems HIV/AIDs costly to treat.Forming families: Early marriage, childbearing have enormous implications (schooling and work) on future generations tooActive citizenship: Habits of participation start early.The fact that all of these are happening at the same time is key which is why diagnostically, we take an age-cut.Decisions about all of these affect how young people human capital and public policy can support all of them. Let me now turn to the last set of remarks what are some of the main policy messages using the framework I laid out earlier. The WDR does not provide a recipe of policies. Countries are too rich. It instead provides a menu and general recommendations. In fact, governments do have policies and institutions that affect them for example, they have school and health systems; laws against child labor, voting rights for young people. The contribution of this WDR is to propose an analytic framework which we call a youth lens that asks whether these policies and institutions are adequate. We think that there are 3 such lenses.

Enough opportunities to safeguard and develop human capital?Capability of young people as decision-making agents to choose among opportunities?Second-chances to those unable to avail of opportunities?

These lead to what we think are youth friendly policies.

So, in sum, the framework of the report is 5 transitions x 3 youth lenses.Most EAP countries have close universal primary completion. Yet many in low-income countries such as Cambodia, Lao PDR and Myanmar drop out before completing primary school or never start. (Figure 1. Data from year 2000.)

Accordingly, illiteracy rate among youth is relatively high in these countries. Most of other EAP countries have levels similar to Myanmar (less than 5 %).

And educational preparation of those who do get access to secondary school is low, particularly among the poor. The average performance of adolescents from middle-income EAP countries (available for Thailand, Indonesia, and the Philippines) on standardized tests is below OECD average of 500. (Indonesia & the Philippines data available only for TMISS, so not shown.)

These numbers are worrisome because assessments do not include students who have already dropped out.Low learning achievement has knock-on effects as the economies of East Asia are increasingly in need of workers with high skills and knowledge. (Reflected in the increase of the returns to higher education, despite the increase in their supplies.)

So, there is a need to improve the quality of basic education. How?Measure quality countries focus on enrollment because it is easier to measure. Now there are more attempts to measure quality and its important to support them. Improve the accountability of providers to users, as stated in WDR043. Early Child Development programs have impacts well into adolescence and beyond.But for other countries, especially middle income ones which have already managed to get the basic rights, the problem is a bit different not enough secondary and tertiary places. So, there is a need to expand but here, we must learn the hard lesson from basic education expansion must also address quality and relevance. Some issues to consider:Curriculum: must stress characteristics needed for jobs in modern economy: instead of just teaching facts, need to focus on life skills that employers say they want work in teams; solve problems, etc. Flexibility is important: avoid early tracking of students because they are unlikely to know what they want.Teacher incentivesPrivate public partnerships in financing public sector cant do it alone. But also key is deploying the human capital well by facilitating the transition to work.Unemployment rate is understandably higher for youth relative to that of adults: experience, etcBut what is surprising is the tremendous diversity of this discrepancy across regions. Note in this diagram:Very high unemployment rates among youth in MENA. In EAP, the rate is very high in Solomon (49%), and high at around 10-20 % in Indonesia, Fiji, Timor Leste, and Mongolia. Although the rate is not as high in Thailand (at 11 %), the rate is 11 times higher than that of adults. 2. Very large discrepancy between youth and adult unemployment rates (5 to 7x) in SE Asia and South Asia.-- In middle income countries + investment climate + labor market regulations + structured work experiences-- Not in the poorest countries + low productivity in informal sectors + mobility + rural non-farm employment + traditional apprenticeships

New analysis for the report shows that propensity to migrate increasing over the teenage years, peaking in the early twenties in many destination countries. Migrants to developing countries are more heavily concentrated among youth.

How to help:Temporary Employment Programs for people aged 18 - 30 and who are citizens of the following countries: Australia, Austria, Belgium, Finland, France, Germany, Ireland, Japan, Republic of Korea, Netherlands, New Zealand, Slovakia, Sweden, Switzerland, South Africa and United Kingdom. The maximum validity of an employment authorization issued under this program is usually 12 months. The additional requirements vary from country to country. Some require applicants to be students or recent graduatesHelp young migrants contribute to their society:Lower remittance costsReduce costs of movementInformation campaigns to reduce trafficking and spread of infectious diseases at homeImprove investment climate at home So, a youth lens on enhancing opportunity means a greater focus on educational quality and relevance to the labor market. It also means providing a platform for civic engagement.Let me now turn to the next lens capabilityDuring youth, the locus of decision-making about human capital shifts from parents and households to individuals. The age at which this occurs varies survey for the report indicates tremendous variance across cultures on the % of young who think theyhave the most influence on work, school and marriage. But what is evident is that they are making decisions. Now, the extent to which young people begin to make decisions varies widely across countries. It is partly cultural. What are the facts? There was very little evidence on this so we asked a firm to conduct a survey of young people in 7 countries. The question was: to what extent do young people feel they have the most influence on some key human capital decisions. The results do vary For example, decisions about marriage are taken out of the hands of Bangladeshi young women who are 15-24. But many young people are making decisions and facing the constraints I mentioned earlier. But youth are challenged: inexperienced decision makers; forming values; lack of resources; myopia and risk taking. So what policies can help?

So, whats to be done? One is simply to provide information.In the Dominican Republic, a survey of boys in 2001 enrolled in the final year of primary school accurately estimated the returns to completing primary school consistently with estimated earnings profiles but severely underestimated the returns to having a high school degree. This was because they based their estimates based on observing the wages only of youth who remained in the village after completing secondary schools (the high earners moved out). Students at randomly selected schools were then given information of the estimated actual earnings profiles. Follow-up surveys in 2005 indicate that those who were given the information was 12% more likely to be attending school in the following school year relative to those who did not.[1] [1] Jensen (2006).Another example of providing information: HIV prevalence is exceptionally high in SSA (regional average of 6 % of population aged 15-49) compared to other regions (all less than 1 %).For example, Uganda is at 6.7 %, South Africa at 18.8 %, and Namibia at 19.6 %.

From 1990s, interventions such as ABC campaign (Abstain, Be faithful, use Condoms) have been the mainstays of HIV prevention, informing people about behaviors that can protect them from becoming infected. It is reported that Uganda was successful in halting the rise of HIV infection through ABC campaign. In fact, figure shows that 80% of youth aged 15-24 know that condom prevents HIV transmission.

But sometimes simply providing the information may not be enough.First, among males and females aged 15-24, more than 50 % are sexually active (implying that abstinence message is failing to reach youth).And, figures also show that many young people know that condom prevents HIV transmission, but yet, less than half of those who know actually use condom.

Young people with more education are more aware of than those with less education that condoms can prevent HIV transmission.But the wide gap between knowledge and behavior is not eliminated by education. In fact, as knowledge of condoms is more responsive to education than condom use, the knowledge-behavior gap widens with education. Design and content of health curricula and information campaign matter.

This figure shows condom knowledge and condom use at last sex among young women between 15 and 24.

So, it also important to change incentivesFor example, conditional cash transfers provide resources to young people conditional on their investing in themselves. Mexicos program gave money to families if kids went to school. The results have been evaluated positively. Bangladesh Female Secondary Stipend Prg set up an account in the girls name if they went to secondary school AND stayed unmarried.Its also important to involve young people in program design and implementation because they listen to their peers.

Negative incentives like taxes can also work. Even a modest price increase of 33 percent could potentially prevent 66 million tobacco deaths over the next 50 years.

So, the lens may imply that governments may have to target young people themselves.Inevitably bad choices will be made, either by young people themselves or by govts and families who fail to provide them with opportunities or capabilities to choose among them. There are few programs that provide for those who have dropped out, been unemployed or prematurely pregnant or HIV + or have already committed a crime.

Human capital investment will then be wasted which can lead families and young people to invest less than they would. Evidence indicates that in high HIV prevalent countries, investment in schooling is lower.

2nd chance programs that enable young people to recover from bad choices are thus needed. Some examples:Remedial education programs, especially for those lost generations that had to drop out of school because of conflict. of all 19-yr olds in Malawi are still in primary schools! Retraining programs for those who have been unemployed for a number of yearsAIDS treatment programsPrograms that stress restoration and not retribution e.g., south africas truth and reconciliation programs.

Also, comprehensive programs that provide training as part of a package that includes basic education, employment services, and social services are more likely to have better success.

Example in EAP: Blue Dragon Childrens Foundation, NGO operating in Vietnam. Target: Children and youth ages 7-20 from disadvantaged backgrounds, including street children.Whats unique: A contact is set up with each child, specifying objectives, the program to achieve them, and the obligations. Program components: scholarship, food and lodging, health assistance, English and computer skills, recreational activities, and counseling. The program also facilitates access to other successful NGO programs that provide vocational training for disadvantaged youth.

Young people are not only the victims of crime they are also the main perpetrators. It is important to address the needs of these young people.

The figure shows international differences in incarceration rates among youth, in standard deviations from the international mean, controlling for youth population, size, GDP per capita, and gross secondary enrollment.

Successful programs in providing access to justice: Philippines Justice on Wheels Program, where judges travel to correctional facilities and process detainees. Most countries do not even have basic data on access to justice for youth, such as the number of young people in pretrial detention. Successful restorative program : Comprehensive rehabilitation programs that provide therapy, jog training and employment opportunities, education to youth offenders (e.g., programs in U.S.A.)

So, with young people, its important not only to prevent, but also provide 2nd chances.So, to sum up, the main message of this report is that there has never been a better time than now to invest in young people. Government policies and institution can do so by expanding opportunities for young people to develop and use their human capital; helping youth choose among them; and providing 2nd chances in the event that poor choices are made.Like all reports there is the what next question if these are such good ideas, what inhibits them? Bravely try to tackle them and talk about CoordinationMany young people are undergoing more than one transition AND policies to address one transition affect more than one outcome (see Kenya example)But this is a challenge voice evaluation. This is why we have policy matrices, for the first time, that are divided into evaluated to be effective; shown to be ineffective and promising but not yet evaluated.

Randomized trial in Kenya

Recently concluded randomized trial involving 70,000 students from 328 primary schools in Kenya.Estimated the effect of intervention after 2 years.

development and the next generation world development report 2007 march 2007 (s)

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