-
Development and the Next GenerationWorld Development Report 2007March 2007 (S)www.worldbank.org/wdr2007
-
OutlineMotivationA higher base on which to build human capital to grow and reduce poverty even moreA large youth cohort is a potential demographic dividendStructure/framework of the reportApplying framework: policy messages
-
Demographic Windows of Opportunity
Overview figure 2 dem data
Percentage
openscloses in:year peak
Lao PDR19852010
Solomon Islands19752042
Papua New Guinea19652044
beyond 2050
Window remains open
Cambodia1995502005
Vietnam1970501985
Indonesia1970601990
Philippines1965751980
Window closes >10 years
Thailand1965451985
China1965451985
Window will close < 10 years
Japan1950451965
Window closed
Overview figure 2 dem window
1985Lao PDR
1975Solomon Islands
1965Papua New Guinea
beyond 2050beyond 2050
Window remains openWindow remains open
199550
197050
197060
196575
Window closes >10 yearsWindow closes >10 years
196545
196545
Window will close < 10 yearsWindow will close < 10 years
195045
Window closedWindow closed
Similar countries: Vanuatu,Samoa
Similar countries: Korea, Rep., Korea, Dem.Rep., Kazakhstan, Iran
Similar countries: Ireland, Germany, France, Czech Rep.
Similar countries: Tonga,Mongolia, Myanmar, Malaysia, FSM, Fiji
Year window opens
Year window closes
High Income Country Middle Income Country Low Income Country
Year
opens
closes in:
-
OutlineMotivationStructure/Framework of the Report5 Transitions3 Policy LensesApplying Framework: Policy Message
-
Human capital during 5 youth transitions key for poverty reduction and growth12100 % of CohortAge24Learning in school after primary-ageWorkingForming familiesParticipating in civic lifeTaking health risks
-
3 types of questions asked of each transition: a youth lens on policy
OpportunitiesCapabilitySecond-chancesPolicies affecting human capital formation during Youth transitions:
-- Economy widepolicies and insts: macro stability,invest. climate, governance, labor market regulations-- Education-- Training-- Health services -- Welfare & familyservices -- InfrastructureYouth LensesYouth friendlypolicies
-
Opportunity: Improve educational quality and relevance Inadequate preparation for adolescence Improve access to secondary; quality of basic
Relevance of education for jobs Curriculum reform, Flexibility in educ systemsLearning achievement may be lowFigure 3. PISA 2003 Mathematics Test ScoresSource: WDR 2007
Chart4
345384361
403473425
434525479
324452372
323452385
507581551
422526478
Poorest quintile students
Richest quintile students
Average
Sheet1
Figure 3The transition to secondary school is a stumbling block for many students
Indonesia 2002 (DHS)
gradeRich 20% MalePoor 40% Male
10.9970.977
20.9970.972
30.9960.957
40.9940.937
50.9930.902
60.9880.876
70.9670.609
80.9640.589
90.960.571
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Thailand 2002
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------
-------------------------
Attainment for ages 15-19
-------------------------
gradeRich20Poor40
10.9920.978
20.9920.977
30.9920.971
40.9920.964
50.9890.955
60.9880.946
70.9520.742
80.940.72
90.8760.583
Sheet1
00
00
00
00
00
00
00
00
00
Rich 20%
Poor 40%
Grade
Sheet2
00
00
00
00
00
00
00
00
00
Rich 20%
Poor 40%
Grade
Sheet3
Cambodia 2000
------------------------
------------------------
Attainment for ages 15-1
------------------------
gradeCambodiaLao PDR
10.8490.82
20.8210.789
30.7390.736
40.6240.663
50.4960.565
60.370.382
70.270.379
80.1910.308
90.1260.216
Sheet3
00
00
00
00
00
00
00
00
00
Cambodia
Lao PDR
Grade
Sheet4
cnamePoorest quintile of studentsAverage scoreRichest quintile of students
Indonesia345361384
Thailand403425473
Russian Federation434479525
Brazil324372452
Mexico323385452
Korea507551581
United States422478526
Sheet4
000
000
000
000
000
000
000
Poorest quintile students
Richest quintile students
Average
Sheet5
Sheet6
-
Opportunity: Facilitate entry to work
Promote growth that leads to greater youth employmentReform institutions that inhibit job creation for and mobility of unskilled young peopleExcessively high minimum wages or employment protectionOpening up opportunities to migrate
-
Across Borders: Migration broadens opportunity for youth Facilitate movement Reduce remit costs Info campaigns to reduce risks Improve invest climate at homeMigrants are concentrated among youth. (Figures: Migrants to South Africa and Migrants to United States)
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OutlineMotivationStructure/Framework of the ReportApplying Framework: ExamplesOpportunity: Countries HAVE invested in access to human capital; lens focus on quality and relevance to labor marketCapabilitySecond-chances
-
3 types of questions asked of each transition: a youth lens on policy
OpportunitiesCapabilitySecond-chancesPolicies affecting human capital formation during Youth transitions:
-- Economy widepolicies and insts: macro stability,invest. climate, governance, labor market regulations-- Education-- Training-- Health services -- Welfare & familyservices -- InfrastructureYouth LensesYouth friendlypolicies
-
Capable decision-making: % of youth who think they have the most influence on human capital decisions
-
Relieving the Information Constraint: Education in the Dominican RepublicMeasured = Actual earnings based on worker surveysPerceived = Earnings perceived by 8th grade boys if they finish prim or secPerceived returns < measured returns
Information campaigns in AND outside schools
Source: Jensen (2006)
-
But sometimes information may not be enough
-
Incentives also matter. Positive ones, likeconditional cash transfers:Mexicos Oportunidades:.2 more years of schooling at 13-15 reduced child morbidity and mortalityBangladeshs Female Secondary Stipend ProgramCambodias secondary scholarship program for girlsinvolve youth in program design esp those to change attitudes
-
Or negative ones like taxes
Chart7
-0.8
-0.464
-0.428
-1.985
-0.459
smoking smoking alcohol binge marijuana use drinking use
China U.S. High school students
Percent change
Impact of a one percent price increase
Sheet1
-0.8
-0.464
-0.428
-1.985
-0.459
a modest price increase of 33 percent could potentially prevent 66 million tobacco deaths over the next 50 years. Ninety percent of these averted deaths would be in low- and middle-income countries
smoking
smoking (China)
alcohol use (US high school students)
binge drinking (US high school students)
marijuana use (US high school students)
Sheet1
smoking smoking alcohol binge marijuana use drinking use
China U.S. High school students
Percent change
Impact of a one percent price increase
Sheet2
Sheet3
Sheet4
Sheet5
Sheet6
-
OutlineMotivationStructure/Framework of the ReportApplying Framework: ExamplesOpportunity: Capability: Policy targets Govts and now Parents; lens improve the capacity of youth to decide among opportunitiesSecond-chances:
-
3 types of questions asked of each transition: a youth lens on policy
OpportunitiesCapabilitySecond-Chances
Policies affecting human capital formation during Youth transitions:
-- Economy widepolicies and insts: macro stability,invest. climate, governance, labor market regulations-- Education-- Training-- Health services -- Welfare & familyservices -- InfrastructureYouth LensesYouth friendlypolicies
-
Second-chances: Recovering from poor outcomesHigh costs of not giving young people another chance to recover:Effects are long-lastingLater recovery as adults is more costlyMay inhibit investment by others (e.g., high HIV/AIDS prevalence leads to lower investment)
-
Second-chances: Programs are more sustainable if they
are designed to attract young people (e.g., age-specific education, such as 1/2 of Malawian 19 yr-olds are in primary school; use peer educators) help youth reenter the mainstream (e.g., graduate equivalency programs)
-
Second-chances: Programs are more sustainable if they AustraliaJapanIndonesiaPhilippinesFranceMalaysiaThailandNew ZealandKorea, Rep. ofSingaporeSouth AfricaRussia FederationUnited StatesHong Kong, ChinaSource: WDR 2007.Countries incarcerate youth at different ratesProvide comprehensive support (demand and supply in employment programs) Promote restoration over retribution:Avoid harsh penalties: countries incarcerate youth at different ratesDont incarcerate youths with adultsProvide access to justiceHelp young confront consequences (South Africa Truth and Reconciliation Program)
Chart3
5.166804
3.820542
1.496342
1.188857
0.6678196
0.5681128
0.4714749
0.0684409
-0.059412
-0.3162451
-0.5735428
-0.805482
-2.683959
-3.263404
Deviation from International Average
Chart1
5.166804
3.820542
1.496342
1.188857
0.6678196
0.5681128
0.4714749
0.0684409
-0.059412
-0.3162451
Hong Kong,China
Singapore
Korea, Rep.
New Zealand
Thailand
Malaysia
Philippines
Indonesia
Japan
Australia
Deviation from International average
Sheet1
Figure 5
Country NameDeviation From International Average
Russian Federation5.166804
United States3.820542
Hong Kong, China1.496342
South Africa1.188857
Singapore0.6678196
Korea, Rep.0.5681128
New Zealand0.4714749
Thailand0.0684409
Malaysia-0.059412
France-0.3162451
Philippines-0.5735428FranceFranceFranceFranceFranceFranceFranceFranceFranceFranceFranceFranceFranceFranceFranceFranceFranceFranceFranceFranceFranceFranceFranceFranceFranceFranceFranceFranceFranceFranceFranceFranceFranceFranceFranceFranceFranceFranceFranceFranceFranceFranceFranceFranceFranceFranceFranceFranceFranceFranceFranceFranceFranceFranceFranceFranceFranceFranceFranceFranceFranceFranceFranceFranceFranceFranceFranceFranceFranceFranceFranceFranceFranceFranceFranceFranceFranceFranceFranceFranceFranceFranceFranceFranceFranceFranceFranceFranceFranceFranceFranceFranceFranceFranceFranceFranceFranceFranceFranceFranceFranceFranceFranceFranceFranceFranceFranceFranceFranceFranceFranceFranceFranceFranceFranceFranceFranceFranceFranceFranceFranceFranceFranceFranceFranceFranceFranceFranceFranceFranceFranceFranceFranceFranceFranceFranceFranceFranceFranceFranceFranceFranceFranceFranceFranceFranceFranceFranceFranceFranceFranceFranceFranceFranceFranceFranceFranceFranceFranceFranceFranceFranceFranceFranceFranceFranceFranceFranceFranceFranceFranceFranceFranceFranceFranceFranceFranceFranceFranceFranceFranceFranceFranceFranceFranceFranceFranceFranceFranceFranceFranceFranceFranceFranceFranceFranceFranceFranceFranceFranceFranceFranceFranceFranceFranceFranceFranceFranceFranceFranceFranceFranceFranceFranceFranceFranceFranceFranceFranceFranceFranceFranceFranceFranceFranceFranceFranceFranceFranceFranceFranceFranceFranceFranceFranceFranceFranceFranceFranceFranceFranceFrance
Indonesia-0.805482Russian FederationRussian FederationRussian FederationRussian FederationRussian FederationRussian FederationRussian FederationRussian FederationRussian FederationRussian FederationRussian FederationRussian FederationRussian FederationRussian FederationRussian FederationRussian FederationRussian FederationRussian FederationRussian FederationRussian FederationRussian FederationRussian FederationRussian FederationRussian FederationRussian FederationRussian FederationRussian FederationRussian FederationRussian FederationRussian FederationRussian FederationRussian FederationRussian FederationRussian FederationRussian FederationRussian FederationRussian FederationRussian FederationRussian FederationRussian FederationRussian FederationRussian FederationRussian FederationRussian FederationRussian FederationRussian FederationRussian FederationRussian FederationRussian FederationRussian FederationRussian FederationRussian FederationRussian FederationRussian FederationRussian FederationRussian FederationRussian FederationRussian FederationRussian FederationRussian FederationRussian FederationRussian FederationRussian FederationRussian FederationRussian FederationRussian FederationRussian FederationRussian FederationRussian FederationRussian FederationRussian FederationRussian FederationRussian FederationRussian FederationRussian FederationRussian FederationRussian FederationRussian FederationRussian FederationRussian FederationRussian FederationRussian FederationRussian FederationRussian FederationRussian FederationRussian FederationRussian FederationRussian FederationRussian FederationRussian FederationRussian FederationRussian FederationRussian FederationRussian FederationRussian FederationRussian FederationRussian FederationRussian FederationRussian FederationRussian FederationRussian FederationRussian FederationRussian FederationRussian FederationRussian FederationRussian FederationRussian FederationRussian FederationRussian FederationRussian FederationRussian FederationRussian FederationRussian FederationRussian FederationRussian FederationRussian FederationRussian FederationRussian FederationRussian FederationRussian FederationRussian FederationRussian FederationRussian FederationRussian FederationRussian FederationRussian FederationRussian FederationRussian FederationRussian FederationRussian FederationRussian FederationRussian FederationRussian FederationRussian FederationRussian FederationRussian FederationRussian FederationRussian FederationRussian FederationRussian FederationRussian FederationRussian FederationRussian FederationRussian FederationRussian FederationRussian FederationRussian FederationRussian FederationRussian FederationRussian FederationRussian FederationRussian FederationRussian FederationRussian FederationRussian FederationRussian FederationRussian FederationRussian FederationRussian FederationRussian FederationRussian FederationRussian FederationRussian FederationRussian FederationRussian FederationRussian FederationRussian FederationRussian FederationRussian FederationRussian FederationRussian FederationRussian FederationRussian FederationRussian FederationRussian FederationRussian FederationRussian FederationRussian FederationRussian FederationRussian FederationRussian FederationRussian FederationRussian FederationRussian FederationRussian FederationRussian FederationRussian FederationRussian FederationRussian FederationRussian FederationRussian FederationRussian FederationRussian FederationRussian FederationRussian FederationRussian FederationRussian FederationRussian FederationRussian FederationRussian FederationRussian FederationRussian FederationRussian FederationRussian FederationRussian FederationRussian FederationRussian FederationRussian FederationRussian FederationRussian FederationRussian FederationRussian FederationRussian FederationRussian FederationRussian FederationRussian FederationRussian FederationRussian FederationRussian FederationRussian FederationRussian FederationRussian FederationRussian FederationRussian FederationRussian FederationRussian FederationRussian FederationRussian FederationRussian FederationRussian FederationRussian FederationRussian FederationRussian FederationRussian FederationRussian FederationRussian FederationRussian FederationRussian FederationRussian FederationRussian FederationRussian FederationRussian Federation
Japan-2.683959United StatesUnited StatesUnited StatesUnited StatesUnited StatesUnited StatesUnited StatesUnited StatesUnited StatesUnited StatesUnited StatesUnited StatesUnited StatesUnited StatesUnited StatesUnited StatesUnited StatesUnited StatesUnited StatesUnited StatesUnited StatesUnited StatesUnited StatesUnited StatesUnited StatesUnited StatesUnited StatesUnited StatesUnited StatesUnited StatesUnited StatesUnited StatesUnited StatesUnited StatesUnited StatesUnited StatesUnited StatesUnited StatesUnited StatesUnited StatesUnited StatesUnited StatesUnited StatesUnited StatesUnited StatesUnited StatesUnited StatesUnited StatesUnited StatesUnited StatesUnited StatesUnited StatesUnited StatesUnited StatesUnited StatesUnited StatesUnited StatesUnited StatesUnited StatesUnited StatesUnited StatesUnited StatesUnited StatesUnited StatesUnited StatesUnited StatesUnited StatesUnited StatesUnited StatesUnited StatesUnited StatesUnited StatesUnited StatesUnited StatesUnited StatesUnited StatesUnited StatesUnited StatesUnited StatesUnited StatesUnited StatesUnited StatesUnited StatesUnited StatesUnited StatesUnited StatesUnited StatesUnited StatesUnited StatesUnited StatesUnited StatesUnited StatesUnited StatesUnited StatesUnited StatesUnited StatesUnited StatesUnited StatesUnited StatesUnited StatesUnited StatesUnited StatesUnited StatesUnited StatesUnited StatesUnited StatesUnited StatesUnited StatesUnited StatesUnited StatesUnited StatesUnited StatesUnited StatesUnited StatesUnited StatesUnited StatesUnited StatesUnited StatesUnited StatesUnited StatesUnited StatesUnited StatesUnited StatesUnited StatesUnited StatesUnited StatesUnited StatesUnited StatesUnited StatesUnited StatesUnited StatesUnited StatesUnited StatesUnited StatesUnited StatesUnited StatesUnited StatesUnited StatesUnited StatesUnited StatesUnited StatesUnited StatesUnited StatesUnited StatesUnited StatesUnited StatesUnited StatesUnited StatesUnited StatesUnited StatesUnited StatesUnited StatesUnited StatesUnited StatesUnited StatesUnited StatesUnited StatesUnited StatesUnited StatesUnited StatesUnited StatesUnited StatesUnited StatesUnited StatesUnited StatesUnited StatesUnited StatesUnited StatesUnited StatesUnited StatesUnited StatesUnited StatesUnited StatesUnited StatesUnited StatesUnited StatesUnited StatesUnited StatesUnited StatesUnited StatesUnited StatesUnited StatesUnited StatesUnited StatesUnited StatesUnited StatesUnited StatesUnited StatesUnited StatesUnited StatesUnited StatesUnited StatesUnited StatesUnited StatesUnited StatesUnited StatesUnited StatesUnited StatesUnited StatesUnited StatesUnited StatesUnited StatesUnited StatesUnited StatesUnited StatesUnited StatesUnited StatesUnited StatesUnited StatesUnited StatesUnited StatesUnited StatesUnited StatesUnited StatesUnited StatesUnited StatesUnited StatesUnited StatesUnited StatesUnited StatesUnited StatesUnited StatesUnited StatesUnited StatesUnited StatesUnited StatesUnited StatesUnited StatesUnited StatesUnited StatesUnited StatesUnited StatesUnited StatesUnited StatesUnited StatesUnited StatesUnited StatesUnited StatesUnited StatesUnited StatesUnited StatesUnited States
Australia-3.263404South AfricaSouth AfricaSouth AfricaSouth AfricaSouth AfricaSouth AfricaSouth AfricaSouth AfricaSouth AfricaSouth AfricaSouth AfricaSouth AfricaSouth AfricaSouth AfricaSouth AfricaSouth AfricaSouth AfricaSouth AfricaSouth AfricaSouth AfricaSouth AfricaSouth AfricaSouth AfricaSouth AfricaSouth AfricaSouth AfricaSouth AfricaSouth AfricaSouth AfricaSouth AfricaSouth AfricaSouth AfricaSouth AfricaSouth AfricaSouth AfricaSouth AfricaSouth AfricaSouth AfricaSouth AfricaSouth AfricaSouth AfricaSouth AfricaSouth AfricaSouth AfricaSouth AfricaSouth AfricaSouth AfricaSouth AfricaSouth AfricaSouth AfricaSouth AfricaSouth AfricaSouth AfricaSouth AfricaSouth AfricaSouth AfricaSouth AfricaSouth AfricaSouth AfricaSouth AfricaSouth AfricaSouth AfricaSouth AfricaSouth AfricaSouth AfricaSouth AfricaSouth AfricaSouth AfricaSouth AfricaSouth AfricaSouth AfricaSouth AfricaSouth AfricaSouth AfricaSouth AfricaSouth AfricaSouth AfricaSouth AfricaSouth AfricaSouth AfricaSouth AfricaSouth AfricaSouth AfricaSouth AfricaSouth AfricaSouth AfricaSouth AfricaSouth AfricaSouth AfricaSouth AfricaSouth AfricaSouth AfricaSouth AfricaSouth AfricaSouth AfricaSouth AfricaSouth AfricaSouth AfricaSouth AfricaSouth AfricaSouth AfricaSouth AfricaSouth AfricaSouth AfricaSouth AfricaSouth AfricaSouth AfricaSouth AfricaSouth AfricaSouth AfricaSouth AfricaSouth AfricaSouth AfricaSouth AfricaSouth AfricaSouth AfricaSouth AfricaSouth AfricaSouth AfricaSouth AfricaSouth AfricaSouth AfricaSouth AfricaSouth AfricaSouth AfricaSouth AfricaSouth AfricaSouth AfricaSouth AfricaSouth AfricaSouth AfricaSouth AfricaSouth AfricaSouth AfricaSouth AfricaSouth AfricaSouth AfricaSouth AfricaSouth AfricaSouth AfricaSouth AfricaSouth AfricaSouth AfricaSouth AfricaSouth AfricaSouth AfricaSouth AfricaSouth AfricaSouth AfricaSouth AfricaSouth AfricaSouth AfricaSouth AfricaSouth AfricaSouth AfricaSouth AfricaSouth AfricaSouth AfricaSouth AfricaSouth AfricaSouth AfricaSouth AfricaSouth AfricaSouth AfricaSouth AfricaSouth AfricaSouth AfricaSouth AfricaSouth AfricaSouth AfricaSouth AfricaSouth AfricaSouth AfricaSouth AfricaSouth AfricaSouth AfricaSouth AfricaSouth AfricaSouth AfricaSouth AfricaSouth AfricaSouth AfricaSouth AfricaSouth AfricaSouth AfricaSouth AfricaSouth AfricaSouth AfricaSouth AfricaSouth AfricaSouth AfricaSouth AfricaSouth AfricaSouth AfricaSouth AfricaSouth AfricaSouth AfricaSouth AfricaSouth AfricaSouth AfricaSouth AfricaSouth AfricaSouth AfricaSouth AfricaSouth AfricaSouth AfricaSouth AfricaSouth AfricaSouth AfricaSouth AfricaSouth AfricaSouth AfricaSouth AfricaSouth AfricaSouth AfricaSouth AfricaSouth AfricaSouth AfricaSouth AfricaSouth AfricaSouth AfricaSouth AfricaSouth AfricaSouth AfricaSouth AfricaSouth AfricaSouth AfricaSouth AfricaSouth AfricaSouth AfricaSouth AfricaSouth AfricaSouth AfricaSouth AfricaSouth AfricaSouth AfricaSouth AfricaSouth AfricaSouth AfricaSouth AfricaSouth AfricaSouth Africa
Source: WDR 2007.
Sheet1
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
Deviation from International Average
Figures
Figure 1: Interest in Politics Among Youth Aged 18-24
Source: Authors' Calculations Based on World Values Survey 1990-2000
19902000
Low Income CountriesNigeria*33.6954.14
India*35.846.86
China71.7878.05
Middle Income CountriesTurkey*49.839.58
Russia*43.5327.07
Argentina*29.6312.12
High Income CountriesFinland*52.9419.78
Slovenia*53.6432.08
Britain37.9836.98
Figure 2: Confidence in the Civil Service Among Youth Aged 18-24
Source: Authors' Calculations Based on World Values Survey 1990-2000
199019952000
Low Income Countries22.0334.462.31
Lower Middle Income Countries52.9651.8542.15
Upper Middle Income Countries60.6460.4832.26
High Income Countries60.5864.2539.52
Figure 3: Proportion Willing to give up income to prevent environmental pollution
Source: Authors' Calculations Based on World Values Survey 2000
25 and over18-24
EAP*0.82121120.8758389
LAC*0.73119570.8087578
SAR*0.72288660.7761194
ECA*0.64196850.7108474
AFR0.5988910.6076862
OECD*0.60.6837964
Figure 4: Urban Youth Registered to Vote
Source: Authors' Calculations Based on Chile National Youth Surveys 1997-2003
18-2021-2425-29
1997364977
2000133259
200361945
Figure 5
Country NameCountry CodeSecondary School EnrollmentYear of Enrollment DataLn(Young people in Population)Ln(Young People in Prison)(Ln GDP Per Capita)Deviation From International Average
AustraliaAUS153.74200214.593923.18515310.17485-3.263404
Hong Kong, ChinaHKG80.23200212.072546.71233910.138961.496342
IndonesiaIDN60.72200217.514966.0466278.053887-0.805482
JapanJPN102.01200215.869254.33615310.17225-2.683959
Korea, Rep.KOR89.84200214.241436.6237019.7209460.5681128
MalaysiaMYS70.28200215.530756.3093119.071998-0.059412
New ZealandNZL117.53200212.948016.0147419.9062830.4714749
PhilippinesPHL83.98200216.699756.0107978.291296-0.5735428
SingaporeSGP74.09200213.691086.5846610.013010.6678196
ThailandTHA81.35200216.208586.6296118.7712150.0684409
FranceFRA108.93200215.13946.3664510.17515-0.3162451
Russian FederationRUS95.02200215.3772311.404718.908835.166804
United StatesUSA94.15200217.3119311.6249110.430343.820542
South AfricaZAF87.7200216.114597.8841919.1748171.188857
Box Figure 7.1 and 7.2
person_idweightageage_abductedearnings_gapliterateliterate2
12.52115.83333-0.729904611
22.52925.91667-6.676370900
312319.66667-2.542087401
42.51815.16667-0.492089711
511815.41667-0.6028505501
612520.66667-3.161297911
712316.33333-0.8566347501
83.8888892911
912825.91667-6.675941111
1012217-1.096460711
1111411.5-0.0452029211
122.51914-0.219883511
1312618-1.681268801
1413026.83333-7.231027611
1512315.5-0.6216879511
1611711.66667-0.0914405600
1711511.75-0.074240211
183.8888891401
192.53020.25-2.892930400
2012521.91667-4.088977711
2112310.25-0.0221558100
2211512.66667-0.1495929701
2312523.25-4.951035511
241199.50.0116507500
253.8888891911
262.5176.1666671.850845911
2711811.83333-0.0566025911
2812013.5-0.1679670901
2912117.75-1.607023811
3011915.5-0.5964630411
312.53025.58333-6.465929100
3211512.75-0.103310501
332.52921.66667-3.905783101
343.8888891611
3511411.41667-0.0246187501
3611512.08333-0.0563998711
3713024.5-5.759726511
3811411.66667-0.100700700
3911511.58333-0.0843199111
4011611.5-0.0533621811
4111612.83333-0.1196648611
422.52816.66667-0.8982861411
433.8888891611
4411814.91667-0.4399377311
4513021-3.394795201
462.52317.75-1.602619101
4712016.83333-0.9545795911
4811513.83333-0.1694981211
4931511
5012410-0.0219841801
5111411.08333-0.0151781901
5212016.91667-1.057269211
5332900
5431411
5532011
5632101
5711712.41667-0.0941985911
5811813.58333-0.1881293511
5912523.08333-4.839535901
6011810.5-0.0173863911
6111411.75-0.0670648201
6212813.25-0.152245411
6313027-7.313691711
6411813.16667-0.1603175411
6511511-0.0057214501
6612014-0.2229781201
671197.4166671.163846901
6812013.5-0.1684324611
6913015.41667-0.5862581911
7011714.66667-0.3186644511
711225.4166672.340510111
7221913.58333-0.1889183900
7311512.33333-0.0833623511
7412113.33333-0.1420758801
7512510.33333-0.0213056801
763.6666672011
7711514-0.2164624711
7813020-2.746512801
791189.3333330.0443099811
8011511.66667-0.0831835811
812188.0833330.8125260211
8221913-0.1202716111
8321715-0.4404331411
8412523.83333-5.329762600
8511613.75-0.1759428611
8621514.25-0.2106907411
8711613-0.132737611
883.6666671411
8912410.33333-0.0211998611
903.6666671911
9112013.41667-0.1527525111
9212522.66667-4.57647200
933.6666671911
9413019.66667-2.540318800
953.6666671911
9611712-0.0746254900
973.6666672511
9811512.5-0.1191410601
9921411.83333-0.0353122611
10012917-1.142210701
10113016-0.7591592700
10212214.58333-0.3103095601
10322211.66667-0.0930344100
1042.52620.91667-3.334655101
1053.8888891811
10612624.08333-5.487193700
10712112-0.0853035211
10832411
10932111
11032500
11113029.16667-8.398310811
11231711
11332400
11432601
11531611
11631711
11811412.91667-0.1128770600
11932511
12032211
12111917.66667-1.576891611
12211915.83333-0.7265367211
12331501
12431611
12531401
12631511
12732511
12811513.25-0.1476690501
1291176.4166671.711372311
13031811
13111917.58333-1.541037111
13222722.33333-4.352939311
13311412.25-0.0634106401
13412516.25-0.8303847911
13522014.66667-0.2998886211
13612017.08333-1.214264511
13711511.41667-0.0307654411
13812016.83333-1.019072411
13913019.58333-2.481661511
1403.2222222111
1413.2222222311
14211814.41667-0.1901984311
1433.2222222111
14412619-2.141203701
14513021.58333-3.847540311
14612617.83333-1.602996201
1473.2222222611
14813020.83333-3.275985611
14911812.66667-0.1384040201
1503.2222222301
15111410.58333-0.0163140701
15211513-0.132468611
15313019.83333-2.646447701
15413025.5-6.411266411
15513023.5-5.114007300
1563.2222221811
15711411.83333-0.0306585411
15813016.75-0.92956911
15912018.16667-1.741175611
16012013.83333-0.1680684300
16112717.75-1.597977311
16212918.58333-1.926204201
16312518.41667-1.858362911
16412011.08333-0.0167491611
16511813.41667-0.1545946901
1661159.4166670.0262212911
16712413.91667-0.2257466111
16811511.41667-0.037216311
1691176.751.533565811
1701209.916667-0.0229260611
1711146.51.666145311
17211814.58333-0.3146001211
17312315.91667-0.735909311
17411612.5-0.1219906800
17511814.83333-0.3522648411
17611810.91667-0.0162858411
17711712.08333-0.0605478700
17812017.66667-1.571656900
17911511.91667-0.0642718411
18011511-0.0076330411
18112515.25-0.5156579111
18212514.41667-0.2288190901
18311911.33333-0.0190902111
18413023.75-5.277748100
1853.8888891711
1862.52520.58333-3.105785411
1873.8888893011
1881144.752.824155701
18912923.33333-5.011582811
19011814.58333-0.3000012911
19111614.5-0.3020187311
19211512.08333-0.0404919211
1932.8888892901
1942.8888893000
19512812.41667-0.0836768811
19612515.5-0.5842862111
19711915.91667-0.7273565101
19812118.33333-1.81935801
19912917.41667-1.429071111
2002.8888891411
2011146.5833331.621469601
20212518.91667-2.088351300
20312012.66667-0.1189037811
20412219.58333-2.48935211
2052.8888892100
2063.2222221611
20711412.91667-0.1224925401
2082.8888891401
20913025.58333-6.465929111
21012519.5-2.442122711
21112522.66667-4.57647200
21212520.91667-3.334593511
21312921.33333-3.650469211
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2162.8888892811
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22112620.33333-2.944453701
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22312523-4.788800400
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2263.6666672011
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4481.5555561911
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45132011
45232811
45332311
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4863.2222222011
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4902.8888893011
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4991148.750.4193552411
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5132.8888892100
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51512219.41667-2.395202111
51612519.08333-2.180298811
51712618-1.674980211
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5213.2222221911
52211811.5-0.0622632711
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53211413-0.1480287901
53311715.66667-0.6173947711
53411913.16667-0.1479899701
53512410.5-0.0172922611
5362.8888892800
53711712.66667-0.1017904100
5382.8888892111
53911712.41667-0.0961152101
5403.6666672411
5413.6666671511
5423.6666671611
54322017.75-1.589018611
5443.6666672000
5453.6666671811
5463.6666672011
54721811.66667-0.0914701900
5482169.75-0.0159322411
54912511.83333-0.0508812101
5501157.1666671.303244111
55111812.16667-0.0494413311
55212214.25-0.1949508311
5533.8888892811
5543.8888892611
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55632211
5571.5555561611
55812415.66667-0.611128400
55912212.41667-0.0978486701
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56212314.25-0.1914345111
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5653.2222222111
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56712013.75-0.1645355901
5683.2222221411
56911410.41667-0.0194588411
57032811
57112016.5-0.8109844911
57233011
57312421.83333-4.033517811
57411711.08333-0.014986811
5753.2222222811
57612413-0.1494811401
57712720.83333-3.275878211
57811512.33333-0.0810651111
57912110.33333-0.0210916811
58011612.5-0.1381081911
58112824.75-5.925818311
58232111
58331611
58411912.33333-0.0853852711
5852.8888892901
5861159.4166670.026248811
5872.8888893011
5882.8888891811
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59113024-5.43449211
59212519.08333-2.179500101
5932.8888892511
5942.8888892601
5952.8888891511
59631400
59712017.16667-1.263771911
59812111.25-0.0168605311
5993.8888892211
6003.8888892311
60112314.5-0.2942320411
6021148.50.5710808711
60332800
60412718.5-1.880678301
60531811
60611512.25-0.08705200
60732211
60832801
60931511
61011412.5-0.1304622600
61112813.33333-0.1438677611
61212412-0.0718913511
61312414.16667-0.1840354511
61431411
61531911
6161.5555562811
6171.5555561811
61812015.16667-0.497568601
6191.5555561911
6201219.1666670.1261653801
62112715-0.4428118601
6221.5555562011
6231.5555562511
6241.5555562611
6251.5555561511
6263.8888892611
62712317.16667-1.252234311
6283.8888893000
6292.5238.1666670.7669132801
6302.52721-3.394666811
6313.8888891401
6323.8888891411
6333.8888891411
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6353.2222221501
63612514-0.1845520211
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6403.6666672811
6413.6666671511
64212318.08333-1.711674511
64312612.25-0.0731435211
6442158.4166670.6208270111
64511712.41667-0.0994294500
6462.8888891911
6472.8888892500
64812825.91667-6.675126601
64911815.25-0.5700301911
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65112212.16667-0.0558485901
6523.2222222211
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65411913-0.1521159500
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65633011
6573.8888892811
6583.1111112711
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6613.2222222011
66212013.41667-0.1562386501
66312819.08333-2.176700811
66412111.5-0.0681195511
6653.2222222511
6663.2222221511
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6683.2222222611
6693.2222221511
6703.1111112011
67112619.5-2.436848411
6723.1111111511
6733.1111111401
6743.1111111711
6753.1111112811
67611912-0.0615536101
6773.1111111811
6783.1111112000
67912112.08333-0.0449990601
68012520.16667-2.83969301
6813.1111111411
68211810.5-0.0169203701
6833.1111112011
6843.1111113011
68511713.58333-0.1874044301
6863.1111111811
68711612.83333-0.1062185811
6883.1111112311
68911814.83333-0.3472005711
69012214.83333-0.350603811
69112825.08333-6.140531800
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6933.2222221711
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6983.2222221711
69913016.16667-0.8263275201
7003.2222221401
70113016.66667-0.8888886411
7023.2222221701
7033.2222221601
7043.2222221711
7053.2222222211
7061147.3333331.20493411
7071178.1666670.7669132811
70812118.16667-1.736258411
70911410-0.021896811
71011571.386768211
7113.2222222311
7123.2222221911
71311915.83333-0.720121411
7143.8888892211
7153.6666671411
71611813-0.1503458611
7172.8888892601
7183.1111111511
7193.2222221811
7203.8888891811
72111714.33333-0.1726513311
72211915.58333-0.6013857311
72312217-1.130473511
72411813-0.1505826311
72511961.974368201
7263.1111112611
72712921.5-3.787678711
7283.8888891701
7293.8888891611
7303.6666671811
73111913.75-0.1678449711
73211611.58333-0.0805706311
73312117.75-1.571731700
73412821-3.394619100
73512522.41667-4.404110411
73612416.25-0.8260177701
73712413.41667-0.1648852811
7383.8888891711
7393.6666672811
7403.8888891711
74111610.25-0.0232388411
74222015.83333-0.7084097711
74312314.83333-0.3469134111
7443.1111112211
74511911.16667-0.0140390711
74612521.33333-3.650469911
7473.2222222011
74812317.91667-1.636235911
74912013.25-0.1407579301
7513.2222222900
7523.2222221511
75311812-0.0550617611
Australia
Figures
364977
133259
61945
18-20
21-24
25-29
Year of Chilean Youth Survey
Percent of Urban Youth registered to vote
Percent of Urban Youth Registered to Vote
Tables
0.4978769
0.6422186
0.8651666
0.9296982
0.9673548
Percentage of Youth (Ages 20-24) Perceiving Voting as a Duty
Civil Liberities
Percentage of Youth Who Perceive Voting as a Duty
Percentage of Youth (Ages 20-24) Who Perceive Voting as a Duty
0.5958495
0.7555601
0.8731825
0.9140778
0.9441995
Percentage of Youth (Ages 20-24) Who Perceive Voting as a Duty
Political Rights
Percentage of Youth Ages (20-24) Who Perceive Voting as a Duty
Percentage of Youth (Ages 20-24) Who Perceive Voting as a Duty
0.1420234
0.183219
0.2311519
0.2853735
0.3450039
0.4087594
Probability that Youth (ages 20-24) Ever Attended a Community Group Meeting
Political Rights
Probability that Youth (Ages 20-24) Ever Attended a Community Group Meeting
Probability that Youth (Ages 20-24) Ever Attended a Community Group Meeting
0.82121120.8758389
0.73119570.8087578
0.72288660.7761194
0.64196850.7108474
0.5988910.6076862
* Difference significant at < 5%
Source: Authors' Calculations from World Values Survey 1999-2000
25 and over
18-24
Proportion within Age Group
Proportion Willing to Give Up Income to Prevent Pollution
00
00
00
00
00
00
00
00
00
* Difference significant at < 5%
1990
2000
Selected Countries from the World Values Survey (1990-2000)
Percent of Youth Very or Rather Interested in Politics
Interest in Politics Among Youth Aged 18-24
Table 1: Interest in Politics
World Values Survey 2000
Age Groups
Low Income Countries18-2930-4445-6465+
India46.345.343.540.5
Indonesia53.341.728.418.9
Nigeria54.950.347.553.9
Uganda45.754.458.5-
Viet Nam76.979.482.080.7
Zimbabwe31.630.333.725.3
Middle Income Countries
Albania26.144.347.644.0
Argentina13.019.419.925.8
Bosnia and Herzegovina29.339.744.651.7
China74.765.374.883.3
Iran61.957.445.532.1
Poland30.637.453.241.5
Republic of Korea38.547.260.371.4
Russia28.837.847.839.8
Venezuela22.225.327.624.2
High Income Countries
Canada34.946.256.755.5
Finland22.121.535.132.8
France27.234.740.542.6
Iceland36.853.353.462.9
Japan43.748.975.784.1
USA58.559.371.683.5
Percentage of respondents in each age group reporting very or rather interested
Source: World Values Survey 2000
Table 2: Private Ownership of Busines Should be Increased
World Values Survey 2000
Age Groups
Low Income Countries18-2930-4445-6465+
India19.318.219.416.5
Indonesia4.98.013.318.0
Uganda39.440.141.5-
Viet Nam15.014.311.610.0
Zimbabwe33.834.943.230.0
Middle Income Countries
Albania21.022.418.719.8
Argentina13.415.220.919.9
Bosnia and Herzegovina19.815.315.213.6
China10.58.14.8-
Iran8.610.38.03.7
Poland12.19.19.64.6
Republic of Korea7.09.414.311.1
Russia14.98.46.05.6
Venezuela16.720.824.723.3
High Income Countries
Canada14.318.817.125.1
Finland5.78.211.913.2
France14.717.421.925.2
Iceland13.518.419.921.4
Japan4.96.58.317.5
USA24.824.326.434.2
Percentage in each age group reporting that private ownership of business should be increased
Source: World Values Survey 2000
Table 3: Discuss Politics with Friends
World Values Survey 2000 - Percent reporting occasionally or frequently
Age Groups
Low Income Countries18-29
OverallMaleFemaleDiff
India60.376.040.4*
Indonesia82.488.077.0**
Nigeria74.782.966.0*
Uganda73.073.672.4
Viet Nam75.882.169.9*
Zimbabwe44.058.630.9*
Middle Income Countries
Albania70.581.960.9*
Argentina46.349.243.3
Bosnia and Herzegovina60.869.253.0*
China82.487.778.3
Iran76.779.773.5*
Poland72.072.671.4
Republic of Korea70.469.970.8
Russia70.374.066.4
Venezuela53.657.149.6
High Income Countries
Canada57.964.451.0*
Finland62.764.260.8
France52.062.942.5*
Iceland66.360.972.5
Japan45.058.534.6*
USA65.167.161.9
Overall64.469.759.2*
* Denotes p
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OutlineMotivationStructure/Framework of the ReportApplying Framework to SSA: ExamplesOpportunityCapabilitySecond-chances: Prevention; lens Help young people recover from poor outcomes
-
Moving forward in CountriesCoordination: youth outcomes require improved multi-sector effortsVoice: the constituency of youth is weak (which is why for this Report, we had extensive consultation)Evaluation: many youth-specific initiatives are still new; impact must be studiedProviding school uniforms not only increased enrollment in Kenya it lowered teenage pregnancy
This talk summarizes 3 points regarding: The motivation for the topic why has the WB focused on youth in its WDR? And why now? The structure and framework provide a readers guide Why applying the framework is useful to HD
This is a long report so this can serve as no more than a readers guide that will help you navigate through the report.
Why the focus on the next generation or those who are now youth, roughly those aged 12-24? The Report argues that there has never been a better time than now to invest in the human capital of young people. One reason is that there is a higher base on which to build which is fundamental if the world is to make further progress in growth and poverty reduction. While there are rightly concerns about meeting some countries meeting MDG goals, there have been dramatic improvements in key indicators over the recent past. Primary school completion rate is now over 80%, much higher than it was barely 20 years ago; Life expectancy at birth, now 66 years, has risen 50% in past 50 years. Not investing carries risks because these achievements come with new challenges regarding quantity and quality of school beyond primary levels; the ability of economies to deploy that human capital in good jobs; No longer dying of childhood diseases at same rates as before, but are now more suspectible to new disease esp those contracted thru risk-taking sexual behavior. A second reason is that this cohort, at 1.3 billion in developing countries, is the largest ever. This number will grow a bit but not much more in the next 20 years because of falling fertility. So, there is a youth bulge The number of young people in the EAP region is at historical peak of 450 million, accounting for one-third of the developing worlds 1.3 billion youth.Some see risks. In OECD during its most recent bulge the baby boom unemployment rates rose a percent for every percent increase in the share of this cohort in the population.But we think this is an enormous opportunity for the developing world because of the so-called demographic dividend. The present youth bulge means that they will enter the work force at a time when there will be relatively few non-working dependents not as many young children as before, bec of falling fertility; and not yet so many old people. The situation varies across countries.For some countries, this demographic window of falling dependency rates have closed because of aging populationsBut all developing countries: still open. True for most of the countries in EAP.For middle income countries such as China and Thailand, the window will close within 10 years (as they experienced falling fertility a long time ago). They need to invest in youth urgently if they are to take advantage of this opportunity.For lower income countries, the window will remain open for much longer.
To what extent is this window important economically? Experiences of EAP (esp that of EA tigers as a successful example) and LAC are often compared. Can look at experience of those who transitioned early In East Asia, a rapid demographic transition between 1965 and 1990 occurred at a time when a strong educational system and trade liberlaization enabled national economies to absorb this boom generation into the work force. Some argue that at least 25% of the growth during the E Asia miracle was due to this demographic dividend. Others, incl. many in LAC, had similar demographics but didnt cash in. So, the dividend is not automatic. The question is: can we draw lessons re policies and institutions esp for those that are looking forward to opening demographic windows of opportunity, including the poorest in the world.What are the policies and institutions that matter? This Report argues that decisions about the development and deployment of human capital during 5 youth transitions are key especially because if these decisions may lead to irreversibilities I.e., it is very costly to overcome later the costs of wrong decisions now. What are these transitions and why are they key? This diagram shows the share of the youth cohort that undergoes each of these transition stylized but based on actual data. Schooling: Hard to reverse dropping out early means it is difficult to get back in. More costly to teach adults.Entering the labor force: A smooth transition is important because (i) early job experience builds skills and (ii) prolonged unemployment can discourage.Taking health risks: A time of experimentation. Could lead to accidents, nutrition problems HIV/AIDs costly to treat.Forming families: Early marriage, childbearing have enormous implications (schooling and work) on future generations tooActive citizenship: Habits of participation start early.The fact that all of these are happening at the same time is key which is why diagnostically, we take an age-cut.Decisions about all of these affect how young people human capital and public policy can support all of them. Let me now turn to the last set of remarks what are some of the main policy messages using the framework I laid out earlier. The WDR does not provide a recipe of policies. Countries are too rich. It instead provides a menu and general recommendations. In fact, governments do have policies and institutions that affect them for example, they have school and health systems; laws against child labor, voting rights for young people. The contribution of this WDR is to propose an analytic framework which we call a youth lens that asks whether these policies and institutions are adequate. We think that there are 3 such lenses.
Enough opportunities to safeguard and develop human capital?Capability of young people as decision-making agents to choose among opportunities?Second-chances to those unable to avail of opportunities?
These lead to what we think are youth friendly policies.
So, in sum, the framework of the report is 5 transitions x 3 youth lenses.Most EAP countries have close universal primary completion. Yet many in low-income countries such as Cambodia, Lao PDR and Myanmar drop out before completing primary school or never start. (Figure 1. Data from year 2000.)
Accordingly, illiteracy rate among youth is relatively high in these countries. Most of other EAP countries have levels similar to Myanmar (less than 5 %).
And educational preparation of those who do get access to secondary school is low, particularly among the poor. The average performance of adolescents from middle-income EAP countries (available for Thailand, Indonesia, and the Philippines) on standardized tests is below OECD average of 500. (Indonesia & the Philippines data available only for TMISS, so not shown.)
These numbers are worrisome because assessments do not include students who have already dropped out.Low learning achievement has knock-on effects as the economies of East Asia are increasingly in need of workers with high skills and knowledge. (Reflected in the increase of the returns to higher education, despite the increase in their supplies.)
So, there is a need to improve the quality of basic education. How?Measure quality countries focus on enrollment because it is easier to measure. Now there are more attempts to measure quality and its important to support them. Improve the accountability of providers to users, as stated in WDR043. Early Child Development programs have impacts well into adolescence and beyond.But for other countries, especially middle income ones which have already managed to get the basic rights, the problem is a bit different not enough secondary and tertiary places. So, there is a need to expand but here, we must learn the hard lesson from basic education expansion must also address quality and relevance. Some issues to consider:Curriculum: must stress characteristics needed for jobs in modern economy: instead of just teaching facts, need to focus on life skills that employers say they want work in teams; solve problems, etc. Flexibility is important: avoid early tracking of students because they are unlikely to know what they want.Teacher incentivesPrivate public partnerships in financing public sector cant do it alone. But also key is deploying the human capital well by facilitating the transition to work.Unemployment rate is understandably higher for youth relative to that of adults: experience, etcBut what is surprising is the tremendous diversity of this discrepancy across regions. Note in this diagram:Very high unemployment rates among youth in MENA. In EAP, the rate is very high in Solomon (49%), and high at around 10-20 % in Indonesia, Fiji, Timor Leste, and Mongolia. Although the rate is not as high in Thailand (at 11 %), the rate is 11 times higher than that of adults. 2. Very large discrepancy between youth and adult unemployment rates (5 to 7x) in SE Asia and South Asia.-- In middle income countries + investment climate + labor market regulations + structured work experiences-- Not in the poorest countries + low productivity in informal sectors + mobility + rural non-farm employment + traditional apprenticeships
New analysis for the report shows that propensity to migrate increasing over the teenage years, peaking in the early twenties in many destination countries. Migrants to developing countries are more heavily concentrated among youth.
How to help:Temporary Employment Programs for people aged 18 - 30 and who are citizens of the following countries: Australia, Austria, Belgium, Finland, France, Germany, Ireland, Japan, Republic of Korea, Netherlands, New Zealand, Slovakia, Sweden, Switzerland, South Africa and United Kingdom. The maximum validity of an employment authorization issued under this program is usually 12 months. The additional requirements vary from country to country. Some require applicants to be students or recent graduatesHelp young migrants contribute to their society:Lower remittance costsReduce costs of movementInformation campaigns to reduce trafficking and spread of infectious diseases at homeImprove investment climate at home So, a youth lens on enhancing opportunity means a greater focus on educational quality and relevance to the labor market. It also means providing a platform for civic engagement.Let me now turn to the next lens capabilityDuring youth, the locus of decision-making about human capital shifts from parents and households to individuals. The age at which this occurs varies survey for the report indicates tremendous variance across cultures on the % of young who think theyhave the most influence on work, school and marriage. But what is evident is that they are making decisions. Now, the extent to which young people begin to make decisions varies widely across countries. It is partly cultural. What are the facts? There was very little evidence on this so we asked a firm to conduct a survey of young people in 7 countries. The question was: to what extent do young people feel they have the most influence on some key human capital decisions. The results do vary For example, decisions about marriage are taken out of the hands of Bangladeshi young women who are 15-24. But many young people are making decisions and facing the constraints I mentioned earlier. But youth are challenged: inexperienced decision makers; forming values; lack of resources; myopia and risk taking. So what policies can help?
So, whats to be done? One is simply to provide information.In the Dominican Republic, a survey of boys in 2001 enrolled in the final year of primary school accurately estimated the returns to completing primary school consistently with estimated earnings profiles but severely underestimated the returns to having a high school degree. This was because they based their estimates based on observing the wages only of youth who remained in the village after completing secondary schools (the high earners moved out). Students at randomly selected schools were then given information of the estimated actual earnings profiles. Follow-up surveys in 2005 indicate that those who were given the information was 12% more likely to be attending school in the following school year relative to those who did not.[1] [1] Jensen (2006).Another example of providing information: HIV prevalence is exceptionally high in SSA (regional average of 6 % of population aged 15-49) compared to other regions (all less than 1 %).For example, Uganda is at 6.7 %, South Africa at 18.8 %, and Namibia at 19.6 %.
From 1990s, interventions such as ABC campaign (Abstain, Be faithful, use Condoms) have been the mainstays of HIV prevention, informing people about behaviors that can protect them from becoming infected. It is reported that Uganda was successful in halting the rise of HIV infection through ABC campaign. In fact, figure shows that 80% of youth aged 15-24 know that condom prevents HIV transmission.
But sometimes simply providing the information may not be enough.First, among males and females aged 15-24, more than 50 % are sexually active (implying that abstinence message is failing to reach youth).And, figures also show that many young people know that condom prevents HIV transmission, but yet, less than half of those who know actually use condom.
Young people with more education are more aware of than those with less education that condoms can prevent HIV transmission.But the wide gap between knowledge and behavior is not eliminated by education. In fact, as knowledge of condoms is more responsive to education than condom use, the knowledge-behavior gap widens with education. Design and content of health curricula and information campaign matter.
This figure shows condom knowledge and condom use at last sex among young women between 15 and 24.
So, it also important to change incentivesFor example, conditional cash transfers provide resources to young people conditional on their investing in themselves. Mexicos program gave money to families if kids went to school. The results have been evaluated positively. Bangladesh Female Secondary Stipend Prg set up an account in the girls name if they went to secondary school AND stayed unmarried.Its also important to involve young people in program design and implementation because they listen to their peers.
Negative incentives like taxes can also work. Even a modest price increase of 33 percent could potentially prevent 66 million tobacco deaths over the next 50 years.
So, the lens may imply that governments may have to target young people themselves.Inevitably bad choices will be made, either by young people themselves or by govts and families who fail to provide them with opportunities or capabilities to choose among them. There are few programs that provide for those who have dropped out, been unemployed or prematurely pregnant or HIV + or have already committed a crime.
Human capital investment will then be wasted which can lead families and young people to invest less than they would. Evidence indicates that in high HIV prevalent countries, investment in schooling is lower.
2nd chance programs that enable young people to recover from bad choices are thus needed. Some examples:Remedial education programs, especially for those lost generations that had to drop out of school because of conflict. of all 19-yr olds in Malawi are still in primary schools! Retraining programs for those who have been unemployed for a number of yearsAIDS treatment programsPrograms that stress restoration and not retribution e.g., south africas truth and reconciliation programs.
Also, comprehensive programs that provide training as part of a package that includes basic education, employment services, and social services are more likely to have better success.
Example in EAP: Blue Dragon Childrens Foundation, NGO operating in Vietnam. Target: Children and youth ages 7-20 from disadvantaged backgrounds, including street children.Whats unique: A contact is set up with each child, specifying objectives, the program to achieve them, and the obligations. Program components: scholarship, food and lodging, health assistance, English and computer skills, recreational activities, and counseling. The program also facilitates access to other successful NGO programs that provide vocational training for disadvantaged youth.
Young people are not only the victims of crime they are also the main perpetrators. It is important to address the needs of these young people.
The figure shows international differences in incarceration rates among youth, in standard deviations from the international mean, controlling for youth population, size, GDP per capita, and gross secondary enrollment.
Successful programs in providing access to justice: Philippines Justice on Wheels Program, where judges travel to correctional facilities and process detainees. Most countries do not even have basic data on access to justice for youth, such as the number of young people in pretrial detention. Successful restorative program : Comprehensive rehabilitation programs that provide therapy, jog training and employment opportunities, education to youth offenders (e.g., programs in U.S.A.)
So, with young people, its important not only to prevent, but also provide 2nd chances.So, to sum up, the main message of this report is that there has never been a better time than now to invest in young people. Government policies and institution can do so by expanding opportunities for young people to develop and use their human capital; helping youth choose among them; and providing 2nd chances in the event that poor choices are made.Like all reports there is the what next question if these are such good ideas, what inhibits them? Bravely try to tackle them and talk about CoordinationMany young people are undergoing more than one transition AND policies to address one transition affect more than one outcome (see Kenya example)But this is a challenge voice evaluation. This is why we have policy matrices, for the first time, that are divided into evaluated to be effective; shown to be ineffective and promising but not yet evaluated.
Randomized trial in Kenya
Recently concluded randomized trial involving 70,000 students from 328 primary schools in Kenya.Estimated the effect of intervention after 2 years.