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DEVELOPMENT OF HUMIDITY CONDITIONS OF NATURAL LANDSCAPE IN THE CZECH REPUBLIC

ADELA SVEJKOVSKA1, PETRA PROCHAZKOVA2

1Department of Applied and Landscape Ecology 2Department of Crop Science, Breeding and Plant Medicine

Mendel University in Brno Zemedelska 1, 613 00 Brno

CZECH REPUBLIC svejkovskaA@seznam.cz

Abstract: The main aim of this work is demarcation of protected localities in the Czech Republic, which may be threatened by drought, including the prospect until the year 2100. ArcGIS program was used to calculate the results, thus the results are presented as maps provided with a commentary. The drought threat is viewed from the aspect of climatic drought, which is defined by the basic water balance of grass cover. As protected localities the protected areas and Natura 2000 areas are considered.

Key Words: drought, ecosystem, protected areas, Natura 2000

INTRODUCTION Drought is one of the extreme weather conditions which contribute to the environmental

degrading and cause problems in all agricultural sectors. One of the approaches to this phenomenon is its evaluation and monitoring, considering the threat to valuable ecosystems.

Model projections of possible future climate development predict a temperature increase by 3.2–3.3 °C in the area of the Czech Republic by the end of the 21st century, while model ALADIN – 10 shows a slight decrease in precipitation (Brázdil et al. 2015). Moisture certainty analyses in the Czech Republic proved an increase of the driest areas and drought event probability increased in the 1961–2010 period (Středová et al. 2011). The results of Středová and Středa (2015) suggest an increase of potential evapotranspiration and thus higher susceptibility of agricultural intense areas of southern and central Moravia and Central Bohemia to dryness in 1961–2010 compared to the mean of 1901–1950.

Overall, drought in the Czech Republic may be considered a presumable demonstration of a climatic change. Regardless of the kind of drought, it will affect biodiversity, ecosystem resilience, and ecosystem services (supporting, provisioning, regulating and cultural). One of the presumable effects of climatic change is production ecosystem service influence followed by major socio-economic problems.

In the area of the Czech Republic there are a lot of valuable localities with specific protection levels. They are especially valued for their scientific and aesthetic uniqueness and in many there are ecosystems dependent on the presence of water.

Negative effects of drought imply an importance of its further study. Understanding this phenomenon will then help its evaluation and increase the environmental and overall safety.

MATERIAL AND METHODS As a method for demarcation of protected areas potentially threatened by drought

with the prospect until the year 2100 work in geographical information Arc GIS system was selected. First it was necessary to obtain the map layers, which were then processed in ArcGIS and interpreted.

Resources for map layers of valuable ecosystems As valuable ecosystems, localities protected by The Act of Protection of Nature and Landscape

are considered in this work. These resources for the work were provided by Nature Conservation Agency of the Czech Republic. Specifically, in this work they were obtained and used the following map layers:

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• Small protected areas with protection zones (last update 29. 1. 2016) • Large protected areas with protection zones (last update 26. 1. 2016) • Sites of Community importance – Natura 2000 (last update 11. 12. 2015) • Special protection area – Natura 2000 (last update 11. 12. 2015).

Drought map layer resources The data for this work were provided by Czech Hydrometeorological Institute. As the drought

layer, the basic water balance layer was selected, where eventual climatic drought is suitably described. In the final maps, the threat map layers are elaborated for two time periods:

• Basic water balance map layer for present (entry data from years 1961–2010) • Basic water balance map layer for prospect until the year 2100 (entry data from years

2072–2100).

Both map layers show climatic drought in the Czech Republic described by basic water balance of grass cover in the vegetation period. It is a mutual difference of precipitation and potential evapotranspiration from the referential surface, in this case grass cover. Potential evapotranspiration represents the total amount of water (in mm), which can evaporate from subsurface, while still being saturated with water, under particular climatic conditions (Kohut 2007).

Modified Penman-Monteith method, which is worldwide acknowledged and recommended by FAO, was used for calculating potential evapotranspiration from grass cover for present (1961–2010), which allows calculation of water vaporization from different surfaces. Modified algorithm based on the Penman-Monteith method serves as the basis of AVISO model, which is being used at CHMI branch since 1992. It was modified and adjusted to the conditions in the Czech Republic and is regularly updated and optimized.

Map layer of basic water balance for prospect until 2100 is projected on the basis of A1B emissions scenario. For future climatic trend simulation, scenario data provided by CHMI were evaluated by regional climatic model ALADIN – Climate/CZ, which was controlled by global climatic model ARPÉGE. Final map layer was simulated on the basis of A1B emissions scenario for years 2071–2100 (Štěpánek 2007).

RESULTS AND DISCUSSION Evaluating of the resulting maps was made on the basis of their visual evaluation. Behind

the ear endangered sites are considered those in which moisture balance reaches values of -50 mm and below. First stage (0 mm to -49.9 mm) is considered like borderline. For sites that belong to this stage, it may approach the moisture balance equal to 0 mm, which is not considered as degradation factor.

Due to the large number of small protected areas and sites of community importance, area of these categories was not possible to specify. At this point it was described orientation in the context of threats to individual regions and their geographical affiliation to any large protected areas. On the following page are the final maps and next their description.

Figure 1 for present and Figure 2 for prospect until the year 2100 show that the largest area with the most negative humidity balance (below -250 mm) is in present located in the South Moravian region. Significant is also the effect of drought in CentralBohemian and Ústecký region. In these cases the humidity balance only decreases below-250 mm in very small areas, thus the most drought threatened areas are in South Moravian region.

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Small protected areas Sites of community importance Special protection area Large protected areas

Figure 1 Protected areas in the Czech Republic potentially threatened by drought – present

Figure 2 Protected areas in the Czech Republic potentially threatened by drought – the prospect until the year 2100

Small protected areas Sites of community importance Special protection area Large protected areas

Moisture balance [mm] Water balance [mm]

Water balance [mm]

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From large highly protected areas the most threatened is the Podyjí NP, the Pálava PLA, and the Moravian Karst PLA. The highest protection level is applied in the first zones of these categories. In protected areas localities were demarcated, where occurrence of rare bird species is dependent on the presence of water habitats. Localities in the South Moravian region are thus the most threatened. There are 6 localities concerned: Pálava, Jaroslavické rybníky, Střední nádrž vodního díla Nové Mlýny, Lednické rybníky, Soutok – Tvrdonicko and Bzenecká Doubrava – Strážnické Pomoraví.

Because of a number of small protected areas and localities of European significance, it was impossible to provide full list of potentially threatened areas in his category. To sum it up, the protected localities, which are the most affected by drought, are in southern part of South Moravian region, southern part of Central Bohemian region, Ústecký, Královéhradecký and Olomoucký region.

Prospect until the year 2100 shows expansion of the drought as well as increase in its intensity, which will cause the raise in number of protected areas threatened by this factor. These localities along with the contemporary ones can be found in the final maps (small protected areas and localities of European significance can also be found on the attached CD). According to the prospect, positive humidity balance will only be preserved in a few borderline localities. From small protected areas and Natura 2000 areas, positive humidity balance will only be preserved in the ones located directly in or very near these large protected areas: Beskydy PLA (Moravian-Silesian and Zlínský region), Jeseníky PLA (Moravian-Silesian and Olomoucký region), Orlické Mountains PLA (Královehradecký region), Broumovsko PLA (Královehradecký region), Krkonošský NP (Liberecký and Královehradecký region), Jizerské Mountains PLA (Liberecký region), NP a PLA Šumava (Plzeňský and South Bohemian region) and Blanský les PLA (South Bohemian region).

Final maps show the protected areas threatened by drought. It is however necessary to differentiate areas for which drought does represents a real threat and those, for which it does not. We are thus able to compare such localities, as Moravian Karst PLA and national nature preserve Mohelenská hadcová step, where the effect of drought is quite different.

CONCLUSION In this work, drought was evaluated from the aspect of threat to valuable ecosystems.

A significant amount of protected localities are threatened by drought nowadays and the prospect until the year 2100 shows that major part of the Czech Republic will be affected by it, while positive humidity balance will be preserved at only a few localities. The results should not, however, be only perceived in a negative way. There is a number of different ecosystems with different humidity demand. That's why it is important to view each protected area individually and adjust the care to their specific needs.

Considering the threat to valuable ecosystems, there should be further study of the drought problem and this work should be seen as a base for following scientific works.

ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS This report article was written at Mendel University in Brno as a part of the project IGA FA MENDELU no. TP 1/2016 with the support of the Specific University Research Grant, provided by the Ministry of Education, Youth and Sports of the Czech Republic in the year of 2016.

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