A S T U D Y G U I D E b y r o b e r t l e w i s

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DICK SMITH’S POPULATION PUZZLE

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Population is a complicated and controversial subject and, despite its importance, it has rarely been debated in Aus-tralia. We currently have the highest population growth rate in the developed world, which would take us from today’s population of 22 million to a predicted 36 million people or more in 2050. This unprecedented growth amounts to what demographer Bob Birrell describes to Smith as ‘a revolution in our immigration policy’.

But Australia has one of the youngest populations in the de-veloped world, and our push to bring in skilled workers has undermined our education system, placed extra stress on our health system and made it even harder for us to reduce our carbon footprint.

Smith’s mission to slow this tide is a journey through one of the most important public policy issues facing Australia – finding the optimum population for a sustainable Australia.

OVERVIEW

Dick Smith’s Population Puzzle tells the story of Dick Smith’s campaign to change national attitudes on population growth and to force the Australian government to reverse its back-ing of a rapid population increase for Australia.

The 67-minute film follows Smith as he takes a barn-storming tour of Australia, meeting with experts, talking to ordinary Australians, giving public talks and appearing in the media.

The film delves into Smith’s life, returning to his original home in the Sydney suburb of Roseville where he lived in the 1950s – halcyon days when migrants were welcomed as they sailed into Sydney and everyone lived on quarter-acre blocks. The camera follows Smith as he jumps out of his jet to address the ‘enemy’ – the Queensland property develop-ers’ annual meeting. It’s with him as he takes talkback radio calls in Canberra. It follows him into the offices of Minister for Immigration and Citizenship Chris Evans and as he sits with a taxi driver who is sick of waiting in traffic. It goes with him to Alan Jones’ studio and to the outer western suburbs of Melbourne with veteran property developer Bert Dennis, who is building a new suburb for 25,000 people. It’s in the paddocks with a citrus farmer in South Australia who has accepted the government’s $150,000 incentive package to leave the land. And it follows Smith to Bangladesh, where he witnesses the ‘brain drain’ effect, where much-needed doctors and nurses migrate to wealthier countries like Australia.

Dick Smith’s Population Puzzle can be used as a classroom resource in middle- and upper-secondary classes in:EnglishSociety and EnvironmentAustralian HistoryGeographyCivics and Citizenship

CURRICULUM APPLICABILITY

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C. Components of Australia’s population

Australia’s growth depends on two elements: births and deaths, and immigration and emigration. The difference between births and deaths, and between immigration and emigration, is called the ‘net’ increase or decrease. Here is a graph showing Australia’s net birth rate and net overseas migration increase over recent times. The two columns added together give the total increase.

From this we can see the rate of growth of the population:

Australian Bureau of Statistics 4102.0 Australian Social Trends, June 2010

5. Describe the rate of growth of the Australian population since 1989.

6. What is Australia’s current growth rate?

7. Which is the main component of that rate?

8. How typical is the growth rate since 2004?

BEFORE WATCHING THE FILM

There are some key ideas and facts that you need to understand before watching the film. Look at the following information and answer the questions in each section.

A. Australia’s sustainable population (or ‘carrying’ capacity)

This refers to the population size that a nation can sustain. ‘Sustainability’ means that in any given year, the resources and energy consumed are replaced in that same year. Es-sential resources include clean water, clean air, food, shelter, warmth and other resources necessary to sustain healthy life. It also includes such ‘quality of life’ elements as medi-cal care, education, proper sewage treatment and waste disposal.

Nobody knows what this is for Australia. Expert opinions have varied over time. Estimates today vary from 11 mil-lion (by radical environmentalists) to 100 million (by radical developers).

1. Why would there be disagreement about what ‘sustainability’ means?

2. What does it mean to you?

B. Australia’s population total

This is the resident population of Australia at any one time (excluding short-term visitors such as tourists). The es-timated figure at the start of August 2010 is 22,408,525, assuming an overall total population increase of one person every seventy-three seconds. You can check the current population estimate on the population clock at the Austral-ian Bureau of Statistics website at <http://www.abs.gov.au/ausstats/abs%40.nsf/94713ad445ff1425ca25682000192af2/1647509ef7e25faaca2568a900154b63?OpenDocument>.

The population clock is also accessible via <http://www.abc.net.au/tv/populationpuzzle>.

Here is a graph showing official population figures since 1989:

http://www.abs.gov.au/AUSSTATS/abs@.nsf/Lookup/ 4102.0Main+Features10Jun+2010

3. Describe the trend in this graph.

4. What is happening to the graph from about 2006?

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E. Population distribution

Australia’s population is not distributed evenly across the continent. Australia is one of the most highly urbanised na-tions in the world. Here is a table showing the distribution of residents between capital cities and the rest of each state or territory in 2007:

Capital City/balanCe of state ’000Sydney 4334.0Balance of New South Wales 2554.0New South Wales total 6888.0Melbourne 3805.8Balance of Victoria 1399.1Victoria total 5204.8Brisbane 1857.0Balance of Queensland 2324.5Queensland total 4181.4Adelaide 1158.0Balance of South Australia 426.2South Australia total 1584.2Perth 1554.1Balance of Western Australia 552.0Western Australia total 2106.1Hobart 207.4Balance of Tasmania 286.0Tasmania total 493.4Darwin 117.4Balance of Northern Territory 97.5Northern Territory total 214.9Australian Capital Territory (b) 339.8Total capital cities (c) 13,373.4Total balance of states and territories (d) (e) 7641.7australia (e) 21,015.0

(b) Canberra and Balance of ACT not projected separately.(c) Includes ACT.(d) Excludes Balance of ACT.(e) Includes Other Territories. Other Territories comprise

Jervis Bay Territory, Christmas Island and the Cocos (Keeling) Islands.

http://www.abs.gov.au/AUSSTATS/abs@.nsf/Lookup/5A313 9FFA7C3B9F6CA25773700169C5D?opendocument

11. Which capital city has the greatest proportion of residents of its state/territory?

12. Which has the smallest proportion?

D. Components of overseas migration

There are four main elements to Australia’s overseas migra-tion intake:

• Temporary visas – given to overseas students, and people who are employed for a specific job for a specific time

• Permanent visas – given to skilled workers whom we target as migrants, family members of people who have permanent visas, and refugee immigrants under our Refugee and Humanitarian Program

• New Zealand residents, who are free to enter Australia without any restrictions.

Here are the latest available official figures (in thousands):

9. What is the largest component of Australian overseas immigration?

10. Why might Australia want so many of these people?

Contributions to net overseas migration growth

2004 –5 2005–6 2006–7 2007–8 2008–9

Temporary Visas 82.0 96.9 143.1 186.5 N/A

Permanent visas

- Family

- Skilled

- Humanitarian

TOTAL

25.8

32.1

13.1

71.1

27.8

39.0

12.0

78.9

29.7

43.4

12.2

85.5

30.1

47.0

9.3

86.4

N/A

NZ 20.6 23.1 29.8 36.1 N/A

Australian citi-zens and others leaving Australia

31.2 27.4 25.6 31.7 N/A

TOTAL 142.5 171.5 232.8 277.3 298.9

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consequences of this for the nation. For example, will it affect the number of hospitals needed? The number of schools? What will be the impact on public transport? On the amount of money available to a government from taxation?

F. Population projections

Experts can estimate the likely size of a population in the future – but these predictions are estimates only, based on certain constants. If one of the constants changes, the results will change. The main constants are birth rates over

death rates, and migration size. Here are the estimates for Australia’s population up to 2051 for three possible sce-narios: where birth and migration rates are high (Series A), where they are medium (Series B), and where they are low (Series C).

17. What is the difference in total population between Series A (high birth rate and high immigration) and Series C (low birth rate and low immigration)?

18. What does this tell you about the power of government to influence total population growth?

F. Age and gender distribution

13. Describe the differences between these two population graphs.

14. How can you explain these differences?

15. What would you expect the 2030 population pyramid to look like?

There is an animated population pyramid on the ABS website: <http://www.abs.gov.au/websitedbs/d3310114.nsf/home/Population%20Pyramid%20-%20Australia>. It goes from 1971 to 2056. The pyramid is also featured on the Resources page of the ABC website <http://www.abc.net.au/tv/populationpuzzle>.

16. There is an increasing proportion of older people in the population, and a decreasing proportion of people of working age. Brainstorm to list some of the possible

australian bureau of statistics 4102.0 Australian Social Trends, June 2010

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19 These population projections are also made for capital cities. Describe the likely population outcomes for cities in Australia under high (Series A), medium (Series B) and low (Series C) growth scenarios.

ABS Population Projection, Australia, 2026 and 2056 (a)

2026 2056

Series A Series B Series C Series A Series B Series C

Capital City/balanCe of state ’000 ’000 ’000 ’000 ’000 ’000

Sydney 5487.2 5426.3 5358.2 7649.0 6976.8 6565.2

Balance of New South Wales 3189.9 2968.8 2780.2 4140.1 3233.4 2646.1

New South Wales total 8677.0 8395.1 8138.5 11,789.1 10,210.2 9211.3

Melbourne 5272.3 5038.1 4861.7 7970.7 6789.2 6100.9

Balance of Victoria 1626.1 1624.1 1636.3 1879.6 1749.1 1742.9

Victoria total 6898.3 6662.2 6498.0 9850.3 8538.3 7843.8

Brisbane 2908.0 2681.1 2465.6 4955.1 3979.3 3237.0

Balance of Queensland 3645.4 3356.9 3129.7 5966.3 4759.6 3998.2

Queensland total 6553.3 6038.0 5595.2 10,921.3 8738.9 7235.2

Adelaide 1410.8 1384.5 1391.8 1848.5 1651.8 1623.7

Balance of South Australia 531.5 499.8 451.0 691.4 552.7 406.7

South Australia total 1942.3 1884.4 1842.9 2539.9 2204.5 2030.4

Perth 2455.2 2267.6 2112.1 4164.4 3358.4 2815.5

Balance of Western Australia 796.8 732.9 660.5 1207.6 935.0 702.3

Western Australia total 3252.0 3000.5 2772.7 5372.0 4293.4 3517.7

Hobart 266.8 245.3 228.2 367.2 279.7 224.0

Balance of Tasmania 338.5 307.0 277.5 411.1 291.2 202.6

Tasmania total 605.3 552.3 505.7 778.3 571.0 426.6

Darwin 189.3 165.2 142.4 334.9 243.0 169.2

Balance of Northern Territory 140.1 119.8 100.8 238.1 158.6 94.9

Northern Territory total 329.4 285.0 243.3 573.0 401.6 264.2

Australian Capital Territory (b) 462.5 416.5 373.0 683.2 509.3 374.2

Total capital cities (c) 18,452.0 17,624.7 16,933.0 27,973.0 23,787.5 21,109.6

Total balance of states and territories (d) (e) 10,271.0 9611.9 9038.9 14,537.3 11,682.5 9796.5

australia (e) 28,723.0 27,236.7 25,971.9 42,510.4 35,470.0 30,906.1

(a) Projections based on 2007 estimated resident population.(b) Canberra and Balance of ACT not projected separately.(c) Includes ACT.(d) Excludes Balance of ACT.(e) Includes Other Territories. Other Territories comprise Jervis Bay Territory, Christmas Island

and the Cocos (Keeling) Islands.

http://www.abs.gov.au/AUSSTATS/abs@.nsf/Lookup/5A3139FFA7C3B9F6CA25773700169C5D?opendocument

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EXPLORING IDEAS AND ISSUES IN THE FILM

The aim of Dick Smith’s Population Puzzle is both to present some arguments for a smaller Australian popula-tion in the future, and to stimulate an informed debate about the issue. Arguments in films are presented not only through information, but also visually. Often the way something is presented can have a greater impact and influence on our attitudes and ideas than the actual information that is given.

Your tasks therefore in watching the film are to:

• Identify the main arguments that the film puts forward about smaller population growth

• Critically assess those arguments and the way they are presented in the film

• Decide for yourself both where you stand on the is-sue, and if the issue needs debating. (See next page.)

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The following questions and information will help you to do this.

Segment and approx time code

The issues and arguments Evaluating the argument and the film’s presentation of it. In each case you need to justify your answer.

1 Introduction00:00:00 –00:06:50

1a What does Dick Smith say is the current situation with population, and why it is a problem?

1b What does he say are the implications or consequences of that growth?

1c He says the choice is between 45 million and 23 or 24 million. Summarise the arguments for and against each in the table below.

1d How does the film establish a sense of crowdedness and urgency to complement the ideas being presented?

1e Is this an effective use of visuals?

Aspect

Big Australia (45 million) Small Australia (23–24 million)

positive negative positive negative

economic

social

environmental

You should add to this table and create a useful summary as you watch more.

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2Suburban development00:06:50 –00:12:50

2a What does Smith say will be the continued impact of expansion?

2b What are the implications if it stops?2c What are the implications for Australia’s Gross Domestic

Product (GDP)?

2d Much of the focus in this segment is on Dick Smith’s childhood home and experience. Is this effective in supporting his argument?

2e The case for suburban development is put through one example. Is this a fair way of promoting one argument and undermining the other? Is it effective?

3Politicians’ attitudes00:12:50 –00:18:55

3a What point does Smith establish about government plans for Australian population policy?

3b Immigration and population are issues in the 2010 election. Compare the policies of the major parties in the following table.

3c How does the structure of the film here reinforce the idea of the politicians ‘shutting the debate down’?

Policy on: ALP Coalition Greens

Optimum size of population

Birth rates and policies encouraging or discouraging birth rates

Immigration numbers

Types of migration to be limited or increased

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4Developing the cities00:18:55 –00:21:50

4a What does the developer want?4b Why does he want this outcome?4c What does he say about the place of city parks in this?4d How does Smith react to this claim?4e The developer’s ideas would lead to medium- or

high-density living. How is this different to the ‘quarter acre block’ lifestyle? Consider the advantages and disadvantages of each lifestyle.

4f Does Smith treat the developer’s arguments about parks fairly?

4g How successful is this segment in establishing that ‘business is pulling the strings’?

4h How does the film visually undermine and even ridicule the argument?

5Bernard Salt00:21:50 –00:23:50

5a Why is Bernard Salt an important player in this debate?5b What is his position on population growth?

5c How does Smith undermine Salt’s authority as an expert?

5d Is this a fair tactic in a debate?

6An ageing Australia00:23:50 –00:27:57

6a What alternative does Smith propose to overcome the supposed need to provide skills through immigration?

Look at the information below about the ageing of Australia.6b What will happen to the workforce by 2101?6c What impact will this have on the economy?

6d Smith provides one example to support his argument. Is this an effective way of arguing?

6e Does Smith bring out the implications of an ageing population fairly?

http://www.treasury.gov.au/igr/igr2010/report/html/01_executive_summary.asp

http://www.immi.gov.au/media/fact-sheets/15population.htm

http://www.immi.gov.au/media/fact-sheets/15population.htm

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7Defence00:27:57 –00:32:10

7a How might a greater population help defence?7b What does General Cosgrove argue?

7c Smith quotes one person here. Is this an effective argument?

8Suburban high rise00:32:10 –00:38:15

8a What points is Smith making in this segment with the house isolated within a development?

8b How do the visual elements in this segment contribute to the effectiveness of the argument?

9Bangladesh00:38:15 –00:43:28

9a What key points are made about Bangladesh in this segment?9b Smith says that the taking of skilled people from third world countries as

Australian immigrants is immoral. Do you agree with this? Or do you think that these people have the right to advance themselves, to go where they want, and do not have to contribute to their own societies?

9c How do the visual elements of the Bangladesh segment contribute to the power of Smith’s argument?

10Training00:42:50 – 00:47:35

10a What does Smith see as an alternative to immigration when it comes to creating skilled people?

10b How does Smith use experts here?10c Is this convincing?

11Environment00:47:35 –00:51:34

11a How does Smith suggest that high immigration rates challenge other policies about environmental sustainability?

Look at the graphs of world population below.11b What is happening to world population?11c Where is the greatest contribution to population growth coming from?11d What alternative scenarios are possible?11e What will determine which of the three possibilities is realised in the future?

11f Is Smith’s graph a fair representation of global population development?

World population change

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/file:World-population -1800-2100.png

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/file:World_population _(Un).svg

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12Food security00:51:34 –00:61:00

12a What point is Smith making about ‘food security’?12b Many farms are being run by foreigners. We have controls over foreign

countries owning Australian resources. Should we extend this to food resources? Read the following report and discuss the advantages and disadvantages of selling farms to overseas buyers.

12c How effective is the footage of the destruction of the farm in supporting Smith’s arguments?

An ABC investigation has revealed that foreign interests are buying up large tracts of Australian farming land. The inquir-ies by the News Online Investigation team, Background Briefing and PM found that countries like China, Japan, South Korea, Saudi Arabia and Qatar were eyeing off arable land around the world to secure the food for their increasing demands. Struggling Australian farmers are also turning to overseas buyers to offload their properties. The trend has alarmed many in Australia. And there are fears that Australia may have trouble coping with future food and water de-mands if foreign interests snap up too many of the nation’s agricultural resources.

Farmer Jim Hersey: Put yourself in our position, where we’re all going to lose it if it stays like it is and we’ll all be down the chute. So would we be happier to let foreign ownership come in and buy us and at least finish up with something to give our families, you know? Or we just go down the chute and then they come in and just take it over anyway.

Ausbuy (Australian-owned companies) spokesperson Lynne Wilkinson: You see, when foreign countries take over our assets, or foreign companies take over, they buy our wealth creating assets, they buy cash flow, and they’re buying our export markets.

It’s Australians who have built these assets and that’s what we object to.

Australian Agriculture spokesperson David Farley: I think the only thing we have to fear is that if we lose the proper gov-ernance of that land or those assets, if we lose productivity from those assets, or if they’re no longer contributing to our country as far as economic and social good and well-being is concerned.

ABC PM, 26 July 2010, <http://www.abc.net.au/pm/content/2010/s2964647.htm>.

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13Conclusion00:61:00 –00:66:00

Dick Smith’s Population Puzzle presents arguments and information to challenge the ‘big Australia’ argument in six key areas:- the lack of a population plan- the environment- defence- skills shortages- the ageing population- foreign policy and the world.

13a Do you think Smith has convinced you that we need a small Australia?13b Has Smith convinced you that we need an informed national debate on the

issue?13c Which type of documentary would you say best describes Dick Smith’s

Population Puzzle:- a ‘fly-on-the-wall’ approach that presents all information?- a polemical approach that openly tries to persuade the viewer to accept

its view?- a ‘by stealth’ approach that pretends to be fair and balanced, but which

presents one case strongly while undermining the other unfairly?

13d Discuss the use of these elements of the film in creating an effective result:- editing- the use of experts- the use of computer generated graphics.

13e Would you say that Dick Smith’s Population Puzzle is an effective piece of propaganda? You will need to carefully define what you mean by propaganda to answer this question.

FURTHER INFORMATION

Dick Smith’s Population Puzzle website, <http://www.abc.net.au/tv/populationpuzzle>.

Dick Smith has announced a $1 million prize for young people called the William Wilberforce Award. The prize will go to a person under thirty years of age who impresses Dick Smith as a potential future leader committed to a steady state economy.

The Centre for the Advancement of the Steady State Economy website, <http://steadystate.org>.

Australian population information is available on the Austral-ian Bureau of Statistics website, <http://www.abs.gov.au>.

There are various Australian websites that engage with the population debate. An internet search on ‘Australian popula-tion debate’ will list some of these. You need to be aware of the point of view of the website to help you decide on the nature and value of the information it contains.

For more detail on this issue, see ‘Selling the Farm Part 1: Does Australia risk losing control of its food security?’ at <http://www.abc.net.au/news/events/selling-the-farm/part1/> and ‘Selling the Farm 2: Does Australia need a food security plan?’ at <http://www.abc.net.au/news/events/selling-the-farm/part2/>.

An international view is available in Fred Pearce, People-quake: Mass Migration, Ageing Nations and the Coming Population Crash, Eden Project Books, London, 2010.

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This study guide was produced by ATOM. (© ATOM 2010)editor@atom.org.au

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