diffusion of herbicide resistance crops: effects on adoption of conservation tillage and resistance...
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Diffusion of herbicide resistance crops: Effects on adoption of
conservation tillage and resistance management practices
George FrisvoldDepartment of Agricultural & Resource Economics
University of Arizona
Jeanne ReevesCotton Incorporated
19th ICABR ConferenceSustainability, the Environment &
Human HealthRavello, Italy
June 16-19, 2015
Logistic Diffusion Curve
Simultaneous Diffusion Model
3SLS Results
Cross-adoption elasticities
Cross-adoption elasticities
Adoption of Herbicide Resistant Crops in the US
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
100
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012
% o
f p
lan
ted
ac
res
Corn
Cotton
Soybeans
USDA, ERS
Cross-adoption elasticities
Elasticity go to zero as adoption of cross-technology reaches 100%
US pesticide applications in kilotons
1964 1995 2005
Total Pesticides 97.5 235.7 222.8
Total Herbicides 21.9 146.1 144.6
Corn 11.6 84.5 76.4
Cotton 2.1 14.7 13.1
Soybeans 1.9 30.9 38.9
Herbicide a.i / Total a.i
22% 62% 65%
USDA, NASS
Specific crop herbicide ai as a % of total herbicide ai
1964 1995 2005
Corn 53% 58% 53%
Cotton 10% 10% 9%
Soybeans 9% 21% 27%
Three Crops 71% 89% 89%
USDA, NASS
Glyphosate Kg of active ingredient (a.i.) applied as a % of total Kg of herbicide a.i.
applied
Crop Year Percent
Corn 1997 1
1999 3
2005 15
2010 35
Soybeans
1995 11
1999 54
2006 89
Cotton 1995 3
1999 20
2005 57
2010 62 USDA, NASS
Herbicides applied to corn by herbicide family and MOA
% of total herbicide hectare-
treatments
Herbicide family Mechanism of action
1996 2005
Phosphinic acid G(9) 2 19
Triazine C1(5) 38 48
Amides K3(15) 27 4
Benzoic / Phenoxy
O(4) 15 5
Sulfonylurea B(2) 11 5
Pyridine F1(12) 0 6
Other herbicides
8 9
USDA, NASS
Herbicides applied to cotton by herbicide family and MOA
% of total herbicide hectare-
treatments
Herbicide family Mechanism of action
1996 2007
Phosphinic acid G(9) 3 60
Dinitroaniline K1(3) 26 14
Urea C2(7) 20 6
Triazine C1(5) 13 2
Organic arsenical
Z(17) 12 1
Benzothiadiazole
C3(6) 3 1
Other herbicides
23 17
USDA, NASS
Herbicides applied to soybeans by herbicide family and MOA
% of total herbicide hectare-treatments
Herbicide family Mechanism of action
1996 2006
Phosphinic acid G(9) 10 77
Dinitroaniline K1(3) 20 3
Imidazolinone B(2) 21 2
Sulfonylurea B(2) 9 NA2
Diphenyl ether E(14) 8 1
Oxime A(1) 7 1
Aryloxyphenoxy propionic acid
A(1) 7 NA
Phenoxy O(4) 5 5
Amides K3(15) 4 2
Triazine C1(5) 4 1
Benzothiadiazole C3(6) 4 NA
Other herbicides 2 6
Planned glyphosate resistant (GR) crop
plantings and residual herbicide use
from a survey of 1,205 growers
Variable Corn Soybeans
Cotton
2008 GR acreage planned (%)
73 96 92
2008 GR acreage with residual planned (%)
66 28 66
2008 GR acreage following GR acreage planned (%)
63 47 68Hurley et al., 2009b
Fields Scouted for Weeds
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
100
Corn Soybeans Cotton
% o
f A
cres
1996
2000
2005
2006
2007
USDA, ARMS
Pre-emergence Weed Control
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
100
Corn Soybeans Cotton
% o
f ac
res 1996
2000
2005
2006
2007
USDA, ARMS
Post-emergence Weed Control
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
100
Corn Soybeans Cotton
% o
f ac
res 1996
2000
2005
2006
2007
USDA, ARMS
Cultivation for Weed Control
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
100
Corn Soybeans Cotton
% o
f acre
s 1996
2000
2005
2006
2007
USDA, ARMS
Percent of respondents who believed growers were following the practice “less” or “much less” as a result of HR crop adoption (from internet survey of agricultural professionals
Practice % of respondents
Combination of weed control methods
>60%
Crop rotation for weed control >40%
Annual rotation of herbicides >50%
Use of multiple herbicides >60%
Tillage for weed control >80%
Harrington et al., 2009
Room for improvement in BMP adoption
Many growers practicing many Best Management Practices (BMPs) to delay resistance much of the time, but . . .
. . . adoption of some of the most critical BMPs remains low
Most Growers Practicing Most BMPs Much of the
Time
Growers adopting practice often or always
CornFrisvold et al., 2009
Note similarity in adoption across
crops
Corn
Soybeans Cotton
Source: Frisvold et al., 2009
GR crop adoption & Resistance Management Frisvold, Hurley, & Mitchell AgBioForum, 2009, Adoption of BMPsEconometric Results from survey of >1,000 growers
GR crop adoption had no effect on total count of BMPs adoptedPositive effect on use of label rateNegative effect on using different MOAs
Glyphosate-resistant Palmer amaranth: A threat to conservation tillage
Price, A. J., Balkcom, K. S., Culpepper, S. A., Kelton, J. A., Nichols, R. L., & Schomberg, H. (2011).
Journal of Soil and Water Conservation, 66(4), 265-275.
-30 -25 -20 -15 -10 -5 0 5 10
KS
VA
KY
TN
IN
NE
IA
ND
MI
NC
OH
IL
MN
MO
SD
AR
LA
WI
MS
Percentage Point Reduction in Conservation Tillage Acreage in US Soybeans from 2006 to 2012
Diffusion of Conservation Tillage in Soybean
State-level fixed effectsDiffusion speed parameter a function of
% of acres that are HELLagged presence of glyphosate resistant weeds
Conservation Tillage Diffusion in Soybean
Observations 49Adjusted R Square 0.75298941
Coefficients t Stat P-valueIntercept -0.0440373 -0.163 0.872trend 0.95935567 3.888 0.000% HEL x trend 1.01495511 2.999 0.005Lagged GR weeds x trend -0.1789411 -4.954 0.000
Summing UpEvidence of complementarity between GR crops and conservation tillage
GR crops associated with reduced diversity of weed management tactics, especially w.r.t. use of MOAs
Preliminary evidence that GR weeds beginning to discourage conservation tillage
