disaster mx 1 risk analysis & contingency planning.ppt

8/10/2019 Disaster Mx 1 Risk Analysis & Contingency Planning.ppt

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Disaster Management I:Risk Analysis & Contingency

Planning

Nik Ahmad Shaiffudin Bin Nik HimMMC: 35241

MD, MMed (Emerg.Medic ine, USM), AM(Mal)[email protected]


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Develop the understanding of disaster medicine and masscasualty incident management

Subject contents (Disaster management I):

Risk analysis and contingency plan

Performance criteria :

Discuss the principles of risks analysis and contingency

plan Perform disaster/ MCI risk analysis

Objective


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1. Understand the principles & practice of disaster

management/ MCI following the national disaster

response framework / NSC Directive 20.2. Able to perform risk analysis for disaster/ MCI

Learning Outcome


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Presentation Outlines1. Introduction

2. Risk Analysis

3. Contingency planning

4. Summary


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Require risk information

....... for Analysis & Communication.....

and Risk Management

Introduction


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TYPES OF DISASTER/MCI

1. NATURAL DISASTERS

2. TECHNOLOGY & HUMAN CAUSED

(MAN-MADE)

3. HYBRID OR MIXED

The Risk...


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Term & Definition


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Stakeholders


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The Guidance


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e.g Framework for Action

1. Ensure that disaster risk reduction is a national and alocal priority with a strong institutional basis forimplementation

2. Identify, assess and monitor disaster risksand enhanceearly warning

3. Use knowledge, innovation and education to build aculture of safety and resilience at all levels

4. Managethe underlying risk factors

5. Strengthen disaster preparedness for effectiveresponse at all levels

Disaster Risk Management


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Disaster Risk Management

Risk Analysis1.Hazard Identification

2.Hazard Assessment

3.Elements at risk/ Exposure4.Vulnerability Assessment

5.Risk Estimation


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Risk Governance Framework

The aim of Riskgovernance is to

involve the

various

stakeholders

within all

aspects of riskmanagement.

Risk

communication

is central.

The International Risk Governance Council Risk Governance Framework

( Source: IRGC, 2006)


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Risk communication

who (Source)

says what(Message)

via what medium(Channel)

to whom(Receiver)

and directed atwhat kind ofchange (Effect).

Predecisional

processes

Environmental

cues

Social context Information

sources

Information

channels

Message

content

Receiver

characteristics

Risk identification: Is there a

real threat I need to payattention to?

Risk assessment: Do I need to

take protective action?

Protective action search: What

can be done to achieveprotection?

Protective action assessment:

What is the best method of

protection?

Protective action

implementation: Does

protection action need to betaken now?

Information needs assessment:

What information do I need?

Communication action

assessment: Where and how canI obtain this information?

Communication action

implementation: Do I need the

information now?

Risk communication is the interactive exchange of information about risksamong risk assessors, managers, news media, interested groups and the general

public.


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e.g Risk communication: Netherlands


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Information and communication


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Risk visualization

1. Statistical information per administrative unit (country, province, municipality,

or neighbourhood)2. Risk curves

3. Mapswhich shows the spatial variation of risk over an area

4. WebGIS applications that allow the user to combine different types of

information, and display information such as:

1. Spatial Data Infrastructure / Clearinghouses, where through internet basic GIS data canbe shared among different technical and scientific organizations involved in hazard and

risk assessment.

2. Animationsshowing the spatial and temporal distribution of hazards and risk


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What to visualize for whom?Stakeholder Purpose Type of risk visualization

General public General information on risks over largeareas Basic WebGIS applications in which they can overlay thelocation of major hazard types with high resolution imageryor topographic maps.

Awareness raising Animations (what if scenarios)Community-based DRR projects Simple maps of the neighborhood with risk class, buildings

and other featuresBusinesses Investment policies, and location planning General information about hazards and risks in both

graphical and map format.

Technical staff of(local) authorities

Land use regulation / zoning Map with simple legend in three classes: constructionrestricted, construction allowed, further investigationrequired.

Building codes Maps indicating the types of building allowed (building type,number of floors)

Spatial planning Hazard maps, with simple legends related to probabilitiesand possible consequences

Environmental Impact Assessment Maps and possible loss figures for future scenarios

Disaster preparedness Real time simple and concise Web-based information inboth map and graphical forms

Decision makers /local authorities

Decision making on risk reduction measures Statistical information, loss exceedance curves, F-N curves,maps.

Investments Economic losses, projected economic losses for future

scenarios.Strategic Environmental Assessment General statistical information for administrative units.

NGOs Influence political decisions in favor ofenvironment and sustainable development

This can vary from simple maps to Web-based applications,depending on the objectives of the NGO

Scientists / technicalstaff of hazard dataproducers

Hazard information exchange to public andother agencies

WebGIS applications where they can access the basicinformation

Exchange of basic information for hazardand risk assessment

Spatial Data Infrastructure / Clearinghouse for exchanginginformation

Insurance industry Development of insurance policy Loss Exceedance Curves of economic losses, F-N curves

Media Risk communication to public, Animations of hazard phenomena that clearly illustrate theproblems.


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Risk visualization: example 1.

http://www.grid.unep.ch/activities/earlywarning/preview/index.php


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Risk visualisation: example 2http:// www.risicokaart.nl


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Web-GIS: RiskCityhttp://geoserver.itc.nl:8181/cartoweb3/WebRiskCity/WebRiskCity.html

Risk Atlases: example


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Risk Atlases: example

Java,Indonesia


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Risk atlas: example Andean countries

http://www.comunidadandina.org/predecan/atlasweb/index.html

Population

Roads

Electrical

energy

system

Oil

infrastructure

Harbours

Airports

Agriculture

Earthquake Volcanoes Landslides Debrisflow Flooding Cold Drought

Tsunami


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Risk Reduction


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Risk reduction

R = f (H, V, C)R = Risk

H = Hazard

V = Vulnerability

C = Coping capacity

Risk can be reduced by:1. Reducing the hazard

2. Reducing the vulnerability of the

elements at risk3. Reducing the amount of the

elements at risk

4. Increasing the coping capacity


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Risk option strategies

1. Avoidance(eliminate) i.e. modify the hazard

2. Reduction(mitigate) i.e. likelyhood of occurence & modify

the susceptibility of hazard damage and disruption.

3. Transference(outsource or insure) i.e. modify the impact

of hazards on individuals and the community.

4. Retention( accept and budget)


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Risk reduction measures

Structural :

Refer to any physical construction to reduce or avoidpossible impacts of hazards, which include engineering

measures and construction of hazard-resistant and

protective structures and infrastructure

Non-Structural :

Refer to policies, awareness, knowledge development,public commitment, and methods and operating practices,

including participatory mechanisms and the provision of

information, which can reduce risk and related impacts.


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Structural measuresAny physical construction to reduce or avoid possibleimpacts of hazards

engineering measures

construction of hazard-resistant and protective structures and

infrastructure

retrofitting

B ildi d i t ith t d h d


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Building design to withstand hazards

in Mountain areas

Foundation Base plate foundation

Basement

Waterproof concrete

Enhancement openings and sealing

Backflow flaps

First & second floor Reinforcement of supporting walls

Roof Reinforcement of roof

Building openings

Decrease amount and area ofwindows in hazard direction

Avalanche shutters

Temporary preventive measures (to

close openings)

Fuchs et al., 2011



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in Mountain areasMeasure Increase in construction costs

Reinforcement of the hillside outer wall 17

Reinforcement of the structural slab 30

Reinforcement of the truss 10

Reduction of eaves (decrease in roof area) -16

Avalanche-proof window and window shutters 67

Above flood-level light shafts +23 23

Total costs of the prototype reinforced building 8

Fuchs et al., 2011

Ri k d ti


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Dunes

Dikesandpolders

Dams and barriers


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e.g: Landuse planning-Netherlands

To avoide future flood

losses.... a secondarychannel & island areplanned.

Restrictive developmentand some removal ofexisting buildings


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Non-Structural measures:1. Awareness/Education

2. Early Warning3. Preparedness and contingency planning

4. Emergency management (e.g. shelter facilities,

evacuation plans etc.)


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Contingency Action PlanContingency ActionPlan


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"The plan is nothing.

Planning is everything"

General Eisenhower


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Definition

A contingency plan is the synthesis of the discussions, analysis and

decisions made during the planning process.

It is also a means of communicating these ideas to people who may

not have been involved in the planning process.

Written contingency plans also document, and in some cases

formalise, commitments made during the planning process.

A process, in anticipation of potential crises, ofdeveloping strategies, arrangements and

procedures to address the humanitarian needs of

those adversely affected by crises.


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Contingency plans answer some basic questions

about a potential situation.

What could happen?

What would be needed to alleviate the situation?

How would action be taken?

What materials, supplies and staff would be

needed?

What preparation is necessary?

How much will it cost?

In other words....


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Starts with considering the types disaster/MCI that canoccured.

Identifying and assessing common disasters isessential for planning how to response and minimizethe effect.

Identify the top five most probable problems that mightoccur regardless of whether the event has ever actually

occurred. Once these events are identified, the next step involves

developing an action plan specific to each emergencyscenario and establishing procedures to be followed.

Identifying And Assessing

Contingencies


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Key Elements Of A Contingency Plan

1. Response strategy:Defines what is to be achieved. Basedon the scenarios, specific intervention objectives and targets, including

beneficiary numbers is developed. The response strategy links the

scenarios and the subsequent plans.

2. Implementation plan: Defines how it is going to beachieved. Thus, the response strategy defines appropriate interventions

or programmes; the implementation plan defines how these programmes

will be implemented (e.g. using community-based targeting and

partnership with local governments) and the steps required (e.g.

emergency needs assessment and logistics).

3. Operational support plan: Sets out the administrative,logistical and other support requirements of a response.


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4. Preparedness plan : Actions to improve preparednessfor both specific and general crises are identified. In some

exercises, these actions become the focus of planning efforts

because they can have the biggest potential impact on actual

responses. The results of this process, often called preparedness

planning, are then consolidated into a preparedness plan.

5. Budget :Budget is developed, both for preparedness and forthe actual responses that have been planned.


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Contingency Planning Processes

The Linear Model:

The first step requires analysis of the hazards and risks faced by a

population, to develop a better appreciation of the types of situation

that require contingency planning.

Followed by a specific prioritisation of contingencies (possible

situations).

For each of these contingencies, scenarios are developed, and

form the basis for a contingency plan.

Finally, preparedness actions defined in the plan are implemented,

and the plan is periodically updated.


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The continuum model:

An ongoing process that doesnot finish with the activation ofthe emergency response.

It helps to anticipate andprepare for differentpossibilities.

The cycle is complete whenlessons from the response areincorporated back into thecontingency planning process.

Triggered again when earlywarning mechanisms indicate

the onset of the next crisis.

Wh T F O Diff El Of


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When To Focus On Different Elements OfA Contingency Plan


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Sample Contingency Plan


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Summary 1

1. Risk Analysis consist of.....

Hazard Identification

Hazard Assessment

Elements at risk/ Exposure

Vulnerability Assessment

Risk Estimation

2. Risk communication is the interactive exchange of

information about risks among risk assessors, managers,

news media, interested groups and the general public.


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1. Risk option management strategies:

Avoidance

Reduction

Transference

Retention

2. Risk reduction measures

Structural

Non Structural

Summary 2


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Summary 3

1. There are 5 elements of contingency plan. Response strategy

Implementation plan

Operational support plan

Preparedness plan

Budget

2. Contingency plan is important as... Bring significant benefits to humanitarian response.

Helps to identify and prioritise preparedness activities, and the process

itself can be a useful exercise in information preparedness. Maintain and improve the coordination mechanisms.

Can identify indicators - focus early warning efforts.

Translate early warning into early action......


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Refferences

1.NSC Directive 20 , Minister Dept, Malaysia

2.https://www.ifrc.org

3.https://www.odihpn.org

4.https://ipcc-wg2.gov

5.http://www.wcpt.org/
https://www.ifrc.org/https://www.odihpn.org/https://ipcc-wg2.gov/http://www.wcpt.org/http://www.wcpt.org/https://ipcc-wg2.gov/https://ipcc-wg2.gov/https://ipcc-wg2.gov/https://www.odihpn.org/https://www.ifrc.org/

disaster mx 1 risk analysis & contingency planning.ppt

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