disasters, conflict and crisis management
TRANSCRIPT
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Disasters, conflict and crisismanagement
It is not unlike disaster recovery and risk management
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Disasters, conflict and crisis
management
How to approach the different interventions required: conceptual aspects, definition problems and purpose of the
interventions
Are they different sides of the same coin: crisis managements
associated with disasters and / or conflict? Conceptualquagmire
Methodological problems: needs assessments vs. Causal
analysis
Operational problems: setting priorities and differentiatingemergency from urgency: simultaneity and sequencing
Policy problems: positive vs. negative intervention; resource
allocation vs. policy change promotion
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Vicious circle: Insecurity, conflict
and mistrust
Human actions
progressively deteriorate
the socio-economic fabric
Conflict persistence
affects stability (positively
/ negatively)
Impact of instability and
insecurity deteriorates
governance and potential
for recovery
INSECURITY
HUMAN
ACTIONS
CONFLICT
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*OCIALSTABILITYSECURITY
(Reduced Vulnerability)
GOODGOVERNANCE
ECONOMICRECOVERY
BREAKING THE CYCLE OF CONFLICT AND
RESUMING THE PATH OF DEVELOPMENTThe World Banks Conflict Prevention and Reconstruction Team, SDV
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SEQUENCE OF EFFECTS
PHENOMENON:
Characteristics (physical
description, typology and
context: war and insecurity,
lack of governance,marginalisation and
poverty)
EFFECTS:Direct (physical
on economic,
social and
natural capital)Indirect (on
Flows)LINKAGES
Menace Vulnerability Risk
Impact/Benefit of reconstruction (global, by sector)
Reduce vulnerability by building trust and consensus
Synergies for reconstruction: appropriation of risk by affected/menacedpopulation (community, social group, sector, country)
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SOME DEFINITIONS IN
CONFLICT RESOLUTION
PREVENTION
the before
actions
Actions (programmes, projects)with the objective of anticipatingand counteract the negative
consequence an event may have(avoidance of conflict)
It implies namely operational andorganisation actions to buildcommunication, trust and mutualrespect, training of potentiallyaffected groups and population to
promote consensus buildingthrough mutual trust.
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SOME DEFINITIONS IN
CONFLICT RESOLUTION (2)
MITIGATION
encompasses
actions before,
during andafter
Actions (programmes, project) withthe objective of counteracting(reducing the negative impact) of anoccurrence.
Includes allocation of resources toreinforce structures, redesign or alterexisting elements to reduce
vulnerability in addition to trainingand organisation (including at thecommunity level)
Ownership of actions is fundamentalto build trust
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SOME DEFINITIONS IN
CONFLICT RESOLUTION (3)
VULNERABILITY
calculation made on
the basis orexposure to the
recurrence of
conflict
Risk factors or exposure todanger of existing institutionalframework such as:
Marginalisation,
Informality,
Pauperization,
Conditions of humansettlements and localisation of
productive activities (primary,industrial, tertiary or services)and their linkage among themand with the environment.
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SOME DEFINITIONS IN
CONFLICT RESOLUTION (4)
CONFLICT
REDUCTION
encompassesactions
before,
during and
after
Actions (programmes,project) with the objective of
reducing vulnerability andexposure to risk
Implies trust in functioninginstitutional arrangements and
community involvement Difficulty in setting limits of
outside intervention vs. localsovereignty or ownership
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SOME DEFINITIONS IN
CONFLICT RESOLUTION (5)
RISK
MANAGEMENT
(actions to becarried out
before with
consequences
during andafter)
Pro-active strategy (in contrast to re-active response) to reduce vulnerabilityand counteract risk factors
Its objective is conflict reduction Is not a sector action but a global set of
actions encompassing all sectors,beginning with sound environmentalmanagement
Is not a conservation policy per-se butrequires sustainability criteria both interms of natural resources and humanintervention.
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SOME DEFINITIONS IN
CONFLICT RESOLUTION (6)
CONFLICT
MANAGEMENT
actions to becarried during
and the immediate
(short-term)
after
The response strategy (re-activestrategy) to, after the occurrence of adisaster, intends to counteract its moreimmediate negative impact and
prevent more severe effects in theshort term.
Includes emergency actions (searchand rescue, immediate assistance,
shelter, sanitary and health campaigns,rehabilitation of lifelines, assessmentof emergency needs and first appraisalof reconstruction requirements).
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Internal policies:Include vulnerability reduction as anobjective of development plansalongside goals of:Competitive growthEquitable developmentSustainable and sustained
developmentSocial participation
External policies:Introduce riskmanagement as part
of the regionalinternational agenda,alongside:External competitiveinsertionBenefitting from theglobalization processInclusive regionalinsertion
Sectoral components:
Monitoring, analysis and conflict
forecastingContingency plans in key sectors, forexample:
Agriculture, cattle raising,
rural poverty,
energy and baselines
Water and health
Interconnected systems
Regulation of basic services withsponsorship of private enterprise
Focalized plans for vulnerable groups,including employment, food availabilityand nutrition
Education to reduce vulnerability
Diagnosis and monitoring ofvulnerability at the local level
Proposed coursesof action
Restore economic andsocial fabricRestore and strenghtenproductive linkages(upstream/downstream)Reduce internal / externalvulnerability
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Comparison of post-disaster and post
conflict analysis / interventions
POST DISASTERS POST CONFLICT (CRISIS)
Diagnosis Typology (an artificial distinction): Typology (an arbitrary distinction):
- origins /causes - natural - economic
- extent o hydrometeoroligical
(climatic variability: cyclical,
recurrent
- social
- duration o climatic (change: global
change, greenhouse, etc.)
- pol itical
- relative importance (to size,
level, cycle (seasonal, economic, other) of
the community / region / country affected
o geological-seismic,
volcanic), geodynamics
(normally associated with wars, social / political
upheaval)
- anthropic (chemical,
industrial, etc.)
- sudden (one-time event
occurrence for a limited time-period)
May ensue or be aggravated by natural events
- slow (creeping, building such
as drought and other slow-evolving climate
variability), both limited or cyclical (ENSO)
OR open-ended persistence (deforestation-
drought, flooding and water level changes
(as in the oceans)
There is an interaction of disasters and conflict andlead to dynamic evolution which is neither
predictable nor linear (the phenomenon of
hysteresis):
- a disaster may lead to crisis and
conflict (of governability) and vulnerability
(exposure to disasters) is a development
issue
- Conflict may lead to a disaster
(by disabling response mechanisms,
increasing vulnerability and exposure)
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Comparison of post-disaster and post
conflict analysis / interventions (2)
POST DISASTERS POST CONFLICT (CRISIS)
Type of effects and valuation Valuation : by sector, in terms of direct
(assets/capital losses) and indirect (flows affected)
and overall impact (on economic-social-dynamics)
Not much different or unlike disaster situation.
- economic Requirements: Difference will be in the conflict or crisis events inthe lack of preexisting institutional framework and
governance conditions, although disasters may
lead to loss or deterioration of these
- social - comparability (accepted
recognized standards, homogeneity)
Requirements: distinction between
- infrastructure - reliability / credibility - emergency actions (to stop
conflict, take crisis to an end) and
- institutional - distinction between book
value, replacement and reconstructioncosts
- institutional building (peace-
nation building)
Account for cross-cutting issues such as
differentiated gender impact, environmental impact
and overall effects
In disaster institutional and governance conditions
are (unless in very extreme severe cases) not
destroyed.
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Comparison of post-disaster and post
conflict analysis / interventions (3)
POST DISASTERS POST CONFLICT (CRISIS)
Response to reconstruction needs, which should be
owned by the victims and lead to mitigation,
prevention and disaster reduction (in the
continuum or cycle of prevention- reduced
destruction-less costly reconstruction-proactive
mitigation) both in terms
Respond to restoring non-conflict situation which
allows for building social, human and economic
capital: establishing a normal functioning society
that sets goals, priorities and development
paradigm in accordance with societal needs,
culture and prior
Move from reactive to proactive interventions,
leading to the local ownership of disasters
mitigation and reduction.
Move from direct intervention to enabling and
empowering local population to manage its own
development process through consensus-building
institutional and political commonly agreed.
As in post-conflict the development paradigm is at
stake and may be subject to change.Foreign intervention is seen as supplementary to
national / local / community / socially agreed
strategy for reconstruction-mitigation
Foreign intervention is seen as crucial first phase
in generating post conflict minimal consensus and
functioning institutions and policy formulation
processes.
Type of intervention