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The material contained in this PPT is a raw model output and research product. This is meant for scientific use. For any clarification/interpretation, please contact India Meteorological Department.
INITIAL CONDITION: 5th July 2015
Extended range prediction during 2015 Extended range prediction during 2015 seasonseason
Extended range prediction during 2015 Extended range prediction during 2015 seasonseason
Real-time forecast based on 5th July 2015 initial condition
This MME forecast has been prepared using the CFS (T126 & T382) and GFSbc (T126 & T382) (each 11 members) .
The next 20 days forecast indicates that
1) Rainfall, MSLP and other charts indicate that the monsoon activity will be largely subdued over Indian landmass for next 20 days except foothills of Himalayas. Continuous rainfall along the foothills may increase the water level in the rivers of North India.
2) The forecast during July indicates that there will be absence of large scale monsoon system resulting in below normal rainfall during July.
3) MISO associated convective activity is expected to form over Indian ocean after 10-15 days and likely to move towards Central India around 25th July.
4) MJO associated strong convection over Western Pacific may weaken after 15 days and may enhance the convective activity over Indian land after 20 days.
Key points from the present forecast