disruption and transformation of the ict industry after...
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Disruption and Transformation of the ICT Industry After COVID
Jason Schenker CMT® CFP® FLTACertified Futurist and Long-Term Analyst
NACD Governance FellowPresident of Prestige Economics
Chairman of The Futurist Institute
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COVID-19 Disruption
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Technology Saved the Day – and was Already Ascending
• Remote Work
• Online Education
• E-Commerce
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Global ICT Market Forecasts – Trillions USD
Source: IDC, Prestige Economics, The Futurist Institute
ForecastsHistorical
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Global ICT Industry Breakdown (2019) / New Technologies to Grow
Source: IDC, Prestige Economics, The Futurist Institute
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New Technologies in ICT Industry Breakdown
Data Source: 2017 Data from IDCAnalysis from: Prestige Economics, The Futurist Institute
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Remote Work
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FT Survey: Most Critical Technologies Impacting Millennial Future Work
Source: Financial Times: https://www.ft.com/content/0c7906d6-be89-11e5-9fdb-87b8d15baec2
*Based on Interviews with 16-25 year olds in 9 countries.
**Percent who named the driver in their top 3.
34%
33%
28%
27%
25%
21%
20%
Mobile/Internet/Cloud Technology
Artificial Intelligence/Machine Learning
The Rise of Big Data
The Internet of Things
Advanced Robotics/AutonomousTransport
Advanced Manufacturing/3D Printing
Shifts in Gender Equality
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Change in Commuter Mode Change Between 2005 and 2015
Source: Global Workplace Analytics, Flexjobs, U.S. Census Data, Prestige Economics, The Futurist Institute
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Recent Averages on U.S. Remote Work
Source: BLS, Prestige Economics, The Futurist Institute
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Occupational Remote Workers
Source: BLS, Prestige Economics, The Futurist Institute
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Source: BLS, Prestige Economics, LLC
American Workers who Teleworked or Worked from Home at any Time in September 2020 Because of the COVID-19 Pandemic – by Education
Education Level 25 Years and Over
1 Data refer to those who teleworked or worked at home for pay specifically because of the coronavirus pandemic. This does not include those whose telework was unrelated to the pandemic, such as those who worked entirely from home before the pandemic.
Source: BLS, Prestige Economics, The Futurist Institute
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Education
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Source: Class Central: https://www.class-central.com/report/moocs-2015-stats/
Growth of Massive Open Online Courses
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Source: BLS, Prestige Economics
Relationship Between Education, Unemployment and Wages
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Source: Arntz, Gregory, and Zierahn (2016) calculations based on the PIAAC 2012, White House, Prestige Economics.
Share of Jobs with Highly Automatable Skills by Education
44%
19%
8%6%
1% 0%0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
Less than HighSchool
Diploma
High SchoolDiploma orEquivalent
Trade SchoolCertificate
AssociatesDegree
BachelorsDegree
GraduateDegree
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Supply Chain
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E-Commerce Retailer Percent
Source: Census, FRED, Prestige Economics, LLC
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Future New Orders for Material Handling Show Record Strength
Source: MHI, Prestige Economics, LLC
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10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
100
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Future New Orders (12-Months Ahead, Compared to Current)
Future New Orders
Six-Month Moving Average
Expansion > 50Breakeven = 50Contraction < 50
Breakeven Line
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Total Major PMIs Expanding
Source: Markit, ISM, Prestige Economics, LLC
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Looking Beyond 2021
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Risks and Opportunities for ICT Industries
• Regulation
• Governance
• Trade War
• Remote Life
• Convenience
• Automation ROI
• Safety and Contactless
• Data Volume and IoT
Risks Opportunities
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Moore’s Law is Breaking Down
Source: Ray Kurzweil, DFJ, Rodney Brooks, Prestige Economics LLC, The Futurist Institute
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Big Uses and Successes by Implementation Difficulty
Source: HBR, NewVantage Partners Big Data Executive Survey (2017), Prestige Economics
Easiest
Toughest
Cut Costs
Finding New Innovations
Transforming a Business
Establish a Data Driven Culture
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Global ICT Market Forecasts
Source: IDC, Prestige Economics, The Futurist Institute
ForecastsHistorical
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Quantum Computing
Source: Image Courtesy of Google
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Global and Korean Trends in ICT
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Regional Dynamics ICT Breakdown with Asian Importance
Data Source: 2017 Data from IDCAnalysis from: Prestige Economics, The Futurist Institute
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Emerging ICT Activities with Asian Importance
Data Source: 2017 Data from IDCAnalysis from: Prestige Economics, The Futurist Institute
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Korean ICT Market Importance Growing – Forecasts in Trillions KRW
Source: Statista, Prestige Economics, The Futurist Institute
ForecastsHistorical
Represents around 10% of global ICT
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DisclaimerAll commentary provided by Prestige Economics, LLC and The Futurist Institute, LLC or any of its employeesis commentary intended for general information use only and is not investment advice. Prestige Economics,LLC and The Futurist Institute, LLC do not make recommendations on any assets, investment types, assetclasses, non-regulated markets (e.g. FX, commodities), specific equities, bonds, or other investmentvehicles. Prestige Economics, LLC and The Futurist Institute, LLC do not guarantee the completeness oraccuracy of analyses and statements, nor does Prestige Economics, LLC and The Futurist Institute, LLCassume any liability for any losses that may result from the reliance by any person or entity on thisinformation. Opinions, forecasts, and information are subject to change without notice. Reports do notrepresent a solicitation or offer of financial or advisory services or products. Reports and are marketcommentary intended and written for general information use only. No part of this presentation may becirculated, quoted, reprinted, or otherwise reproduced for without prior written approval from PrestigeEconomics, LLC and The Futurist Institute, LLC. This material is not a complete record of the presentationand discussion led by Prestige Economics, LLC and The Futurist Institute, LLC.
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