1

Doctoral Completion & Attrition

September 2008

2

Attrition & Completion Graphs

All Students

3

0.0

0.1

0.2

0.3

0.4

0.5

0 2 4 6 8 10Year

1990-1994 1995-19992000-2004

Doctoral Attrition by Cohort

4

0.0

0.1

0.2

0.3

0.4

0.5

0 2 4 6 8 10Year

FO ODUR

Doctoral Attrition by Ethnicity

5

0.0

0.1

0.2

0.3

0.4

0.5

0.6

0 2 4 6 8 10Year

1990-1994 1995-19992000-2004

URM Doctoral Attrition by Cohort

6

0.0

0.1

0.2

0.3

0.4

0.5

0 2 4 6 8 10Year

Female Male

Doctoral Attrition by Gender

7

0.0

0.1

0.2

0.3

0.4

0.5

0.6

0 2 4 6 8 10Year

1990-1994 1995-19992000-2004

Female Doctoral Attrition by Cohort

8

Commulative Ten-Year Completion Rates by Demographic Group

52

55

65

52

45

54

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

Female Male Foreign Other Domestic URM Total

Co

mp

leti

on

Ra

te (

%)

9

0.0

0.1

0.2

0.3

0.4

0.5

0.6

0.7

0 2 4 6 8 10Year

1990-1994 1995-19992000-2004

Doctoral Completion by Cohort

10

0.0

0.1

0.2

0.3

0.4

0.5

0.6

0.7

0 2 4 6 8 10Year

FO ODUR

Doctoral Degree Completion by Ethnicity

11

0.0

0.1

0.2

0.3

0.4

0.5

0.6

0 2 4 6 8 10Year

1990-1994 1995-19992000-2004

URM Doctoral Completion by Cohort

Note: Includes all doctoral students

12

0.0

0.1

0.2

0.3

0.4

0.5

0.6

0.7

0 2 4 6 8 10Year

Female Male

Doctoral Completion by Gender

13

0.1

.2.3

.4.5

.6

0 2 4 6 8 10Year

1990-1994 1995-19992000-2004

Female Doctoral Completion by Cohort

Note: Includes All Doctoral Students

14

Full Campus Study

• Attrition– No difference between demographic groups.– GRE Verbal Scores positively related to attrition. No

significant relationship found for GRE Quant or for GPA.

– Students who attended a top tier BA school and those with a prior graduate degree are less likely to drop out.

– Student faculty ratio is negatively related to dropout. – Programs with a tradition of publishing with a lone

author have higher attrition rates.– Programs with a teaching requirement have higher

drop out rates.

15

Full Campus Study

• Early v. Late Attrition– Among dropouts, students with a foreign

language requirement are more likely to dropout late.

– Programs with a tradition of sole authorship tend to produce students who drop out later.

– Differential impact of GRE Verbal between students enrolling with and without a prior graduate degree.

16

GRE Verbal & Prior Graduate Degree

.1.2

.3.4

Pro

babl

ity o

f Dro

pout

0 2 4 6 8 10Verbal GRE Percentile/10

No Prior Graduate Degree Prior Graduate Degree

Note: Among all dropouts

F1997 & F1998 Doctoral CohortsProbablity of Dropout After 3rd Year of Doctoral Enrollment

17

CGS Activities

• Exit Survey

• CGS Incidents System

• 10 Year Attrition and Completion Reports– By program– By broad field by Gender and Ethnic Counts

18

Incidents Systems

• IT Problems• 119 Reported Incidents to Date• Reported Reasons:

– 22% Family– 22% Health– 19% Financial– 25% Lost Interest

• Open Ended Comments• Subsequent Enrollment

19

0.0

00

.25

0.5

00

.75

0 2 4 6 8 10Year

1990-1994 1995-19992000-2004

CGS Doctoral Completion by Cohort

20

0.0

0.1

0.2

0.3

0.4

0.5

0.6

0 2 4 6 8 10Year

FO ODUR

CGS Doctoral Completion by Ethnicity

21

0.0

00

.25

0.5

00

.75

0 2 4 6 8 10Year

1990-1994 1995-19992000-2004

CGS URM Doctoral Completion by Cohort

22

0.0

0.1

0.2

0.3

0.4

0.5

0.6

0 2 4 6 8 10Year

Female Male

CGS Doctoral Completion by Gender

23

0.0

00

.25

0.5

00

.75

0 2 4 6 8 10Year

1990-1994 1995-19992000-2004

CGS Female Doctoral Completion by Cohort

24

0.0

00

.10

0.2

00

.30

0.4

00

.50

0 2 4 6 8 10Year

1990-1994 1995-19992000-2004

CGS Doctoral Attrition by Cohort

25

0.0

0.1

0.2

0.3

0.4

0.5

0 2 4 6 8 10Year

FO ODUR

CGS Doctoral Attrition by Ethnicity

26

0.0

0.1

0.2

0.3

0.4

0.5

0.6

0 2 4 6 8 10Year

1990-1994 1995-19992000-2004

CGS URM Doctoral Attrition by Cohort

27

0.0

0.1

0.2

0.3

0.4

0.5

0 2 4 6 8 10Year

Female Male

CGS Doctoral Attrition by Gender

28

0.0

00

.25

0.5

0

0 2 4 6 8 10Year

1990-1994 1995-19992000-2004

CGS Female Doctoral Attrition by Cohort