dominant capital & the new wars

8/4/2019 Dominant Capital & the New Wars

1/74

gb g - b b gbz, , 1980 1990 - 2000 bg g -b, gg bg g R , b b bgg b :(1) - ; (2) b

b g W g

, - S-, g b -g z - b gA, g, g

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b b, b b b -, gbz b

g g - 1990, 2000 F -, , q b I b b

abstract
http://jwsr.ucr.edu/archive/vol10/number2/


2/74

Dominant Capital and the New Wars

journal of world-systems research, x, , summer , htt://jwr.ucr.edu/issn 1076156x4 S B & J Nz

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b gb D g H S E fi H bk g

Shimhon BichlerJonthn Nitzn

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3/74

Shimhon Bichler Jonthn Nitzn256

T b - g T b g , b

ff F, g , b k g S, , g , g

1. the argument in a nutshell

W C , g b

- b, k b, I , b ffi g O , gg z fi F g g bgg A, g

g z , g fl g , ff -

z , b - W g , g, b, bfi g T g, , g , b

A g ff M ff b b -g , fiT g b A fi, fi I g A g fl , b , T g g k g-

I, b dominnt citl, g Dff ff b , ,, fi B ff , , B fi, fi , b


4/74

Dominant Capital and the New Wars 257

ower to rehe the trjectory of ocil reroduction wholeDff g ff b P, fi,

D b q , g g b , b differentil T -z fi, b b g T bg ff b g Pfi z g B , ff bfi, g, b g g

T ff fl z

g b B , ff k b g g q g bff gfl (g b fl) A, , g , g - , g z ff g, g b g g gfl

T 2000 k bgg : g g g , bg ( 2003) g gfl b bk I b b

z bfi - q, -k B bg g fi

, k b g - b kg qb D b - q T fi - q N , k bg b g , b g gb g A bk ,

fi , b A , bg g gfl, gfl ff M k fl , b gg N fl g g, b k b k fi g


5/74


T , kg fl M E, O , g,

B , b F g , fffi T g b g, k g b g I , k q ff differentil ccumultion, g A q bg

C fi T

fl b, , bg g T , , - C b, 1970 , k g, b g g - A g ff-k , T k fi ,

b A g g ; b g fi , gfi b W g , fi,

A k g ? Ag , b k OPEC k T b, , ff A , g

ffg bb fl fl M E

bg g , g OPEC gg fi L g-, fl g, g b -, z F, g , gk

fl T, g -g B A b , b ,

O , b M bg , g S g g ? T I


6/74


g, M, G M V k b EMb Lk MA , b

qbbg b W g b fl M E H, g k , gg b O b g b -b b B b,, g b g , b b fi

T g b P ( 2003), bgg g g fl T gb bb , g G D C g , , bg k b 1950 U , fl g fll-ing, bk b fl k

G D k k G k, gfl b g b g

A k gg g fl g T, , b 1960 O , g lwy g fl, g k fi b F, fl , g k b g ff -

A , fl b b fi g A , ff bg

O g OPEC b b- T U S W b g OPEC - g b g W

fl, g g A , , gg k b k gg fl g b US

N , g q F , , q- ? A


7/74


g g b g? D US g ? W g g

g b? W q b g ? A b g g gb , g g fl? T q b B, , fi , b b

2. capital accumulationW b ? M bb

q: b , - b A b S g b 10 S b GDP fl- g 10 S, g, g

10 , g g C, , q, g I , not - F , kg b , b relterm

U, O , - k , b

mening g b T - g Y k q , b b b O , ff g gg F , b b 20 , 5

. F , ff - S , Nz (), Nz B () B Nz (b: ch )


8/74


, , bg , 15 ; , q ,

, b 15 A , , b B ?C g A b -

ff , - O , g T k ff ; b - b ; - g g ; b

ff ; T g b not the me , T b , , k, , very me T b q, , b g g k gg ?

C, , fi g b g N b b g , b , g I , b b g1,000 q g 500 A g , gg g g -gg

I , M b , gg , k , b qfi b b q S bg b k, g, 10 b b , k, g, 5 b, ggg g- q 15 b b

D b g q?N I, k b b - , kg g , kg W k , k-b g q? P B , k b


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g I, -

, T :

g - - T F , B G, B, Gg S, , , g g g b -g S, b A b bb g O , b U ,

T Vb, - b (Vb 1923: 88) A

P- , b fi g T , b , fi, bk, g fi fi I , g ff

b , fi T g

. I b , - b, b F, q ff - ( ), q ff b g b b ( M ) S, b (), b b b ( g) kg (M) A, , - q; , b , , q, one quntity only O b q q, C (),Nz () B Nz () T - b S (; ) T b g q

fi fi b Vb (; ) Wk (), g Cbg C (C Rb -; Sff ; H )

. N b b , -, fi: z , b g g


10/74


- fi F, g g g b g-

, fi F, , within k fi fi I g fi bk b bg B bk, b - g, b T b g g fi g fi

I , bk b fi T bk bM ( M 1909: vol 3,P V) B , b b b, fi b -fi fi M , g, fi T ,

fi I bb b, b, B , b b fi I b b, b -, g I g b

A, , g g , quntittive benchmrk g

b A , , g, k b b I b reltive C b, b

3. differential accumulation

A g C 10- b b

Scoti McLeod 10- bk; gg k q

. T b k g T USD C, , fi b comny , fi b indutry k (US D C B E A )


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b IFC bk; gb b Economit ; g US b SP 500; E k g bk

k b g b N- kg b fi z, g k T g differentil ccumultion

O , ff fi g b P k ; , , b g B g, g ? A g g b -

? A , k fi k bbb fl b b k fi Lkg b b g, g, b b underly-ing ?

T : F ff F gg , ff -

g g, - ff k g

. P M, Finncil ime , g g g b b (M ) S g , - b Finncil ime , g g k g I ,b g g b -g (A )

. T fi z fi g g G Db k M () H H () I, - b b, b - K , ( L ; L )

. O g , B P () B ()


12/74


Finne nd Reliy

k kg Ag , q b I bg g k, g g k, fi g, b

k g g A J MK , W g -g g g g bA , I b, , fi g g(K 1936: 156) T b , g bg g k k fl B k g g g

Figue 1 S&P 5: Pie nd Ening*

10

100

1,000

10,000

100,000

1850 1870 1890 1910 1930 1950 1970 1990 2010

Price

Earnings per Share

1871=100

log scale

* Te S&P 500 index splices the following three series: the Cowles/Standard and PoorsComposite (8795); the 90-stock Composite (96957); and the S&P 500 (957-

present). Earnings per share are computed as the ratio of price to price/earnings.Source: Global Financial Data (series codes: _SPXD for price; SPPECOMWfor price/earnings).


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C Fg 1 T g- S- P 500 (s&p 500), g k 500 g U S T Fg

g g E, g , g k --fl ( g ) B g g 095 g kbI , k k b b b ( ), b ecultion tightly correlted with the citlit relity of

rofitS g- ? N W -

b , b B , , k R, comny bility to generte rofit A b g- b b , :

rte of ccumultion rte of growth of future rofit

W b g , g ,

, :

rte of ccumultion rte of growth of rofit

I , Fg 1 k b

- , b reltion-

hi deely grounded in the inner logic of ccumultion O g ,

kg g, b

Diffeenil Aumulion: Pive nd Aive

N, k k ff ; , , , g S, k , q, b s&p 500 b-k , fi g

. W bg k g, k, ( g - fi) T g I g , g fi


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g fi 500 fi s&p 500 A fi g, fi g I , ccumulte differentilly incree

your ditributive hre of rofit T b b g:

T , , b fi g gb - I , , k , b k g, - ff gg g Gg SQ F W Bff Bk H B 1969 1997, S gg 33 , 13 s&p 500, Bff, k Sg O, g 22 19652002 , 10 s&p 500

A , g bgg, gfi I 1960, S

Bff g b gfi ffg g T g 1990 S- ff bg - g A , g b g qk , g enme qk A , b , g S, Bff g g

T , , ff , g direct I g fi g ff, k b k g ff I, g gg b B , ff fi k ff b

. Ag, bg ff k

. Fg R (), Bff (: ) Gb F D://gbfi
http://www.globalfindata.com/http://www.globalfindata.com/


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fi W bg , b g ff fi; g bb

Cpil nd Powe

T g , g g F -, fi b I I k, fi q b , ff K M b O b T

fi , - k g I , M gz b P, ,b b g, concrete

O , M fi g bg b

g , b -M - B z b T N - , b b, k g g b g bg g T g b

g k M C k , b zg

z b gzg b rice nd

rofit B k g , k - concet of citl itelf T k-g b P Sz Monooly Citl, bk

g P B -fi :W M C g g k -? B, I k it concetuliztion of the citlccumultion roce i one-ided nd incomlete I b b M , bg g k g g


16/74


B A g k , b b g b b : , bg k b ( ) b bg g , b g z I b b, I k I B I chieving better undertnding ofthe monooly citlit ociety of tody will be oible only on the bi of more

dequte theory of citl ccumultion, - , (Sz , )

4. capital aspowerI , k nd , b

T M b, g

fi b b g- gg g ff , g I, g ll zg, g , fl/ W bg z, , b b, b ower itelfA , b , ff, T

Cpilizing Powe

C M I 2000, $9b fig 70 gb fib k z $310 b (A 1999b;M O) T fi z, g, b k g

. O qg , B AK (; ) , , b, , , g M , D B D P, , , bgg g b (: )


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I, entirely g, bk g, M b ff F ,

M b g, grti E , g k CD , b T b g R , M fi z qk z M b kg , , b ff fi-b q olitic kg

O k Cg T fi g fi g-

, k , , g g, - A , k, ff b Tb b fi k Cg ff b ff ; , Cg z

O k G M GM, g b, k k T ff fi

GM B I g b g, k b -; g k ; ; g g gb g; g ; g b ; GM

ff fi g , ; b, - gb fl I -, b ,b g GM

. N g, M fi U S, fi M g , , b M b k ggb


18/74


A : g fi C Ib- G, O Pb b b b gg T ;

bg T ff bg, g fi ff z T z, q, z ff

A fi A , ff fi g A g gb g

M E S , , fi , z

W T - , , g fi g B b fib I , g b g

k generl nd concrete nture of citlit ower nd it ooitionO g gz b ff fi I - ff b gbg g fi g ff B b k fi g ff fi , q P, , - ,

Polii, Ruling Cl nd Aumulion hough Cii

T b- , gg F k F , b , b -

I, olitic, brodly undertood, ithe very crux of ccumultion Mkg b , , g b g ,

M fi , k g


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two ide of the me roce Dff g -g A g g g ff

-g g, , g, , - gz, I , , b , b g g g T b k b k fi T ff- b R,

g z , , g T k ff - g b B b, q

F , k b qulittive q

quntittive ff T bg, , B g, b k, b , b

T zg R - B ff g b through I k -

g b, q - g B g g ff , k g g, fl b T gg gg A b g g b g

5. regimes of differential accumulation

H ff ? A, g , bredth deth g , k fi : () z gz, -


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b b ; () fi , , :

rofit = (emloyment) (rofit / emloyment)

Lbg bk b , :

rofit = bredth deth

N, k b q , ff, A b b b g ; b b g ff- , b g fter thn the

verge F , g g 5 , b b 7 , ff b 2 ( ff b )

Fg g, fi ; ff fi

fter thn the verge I g fi g b 10 1 , ff

E b b b externl internl , g - fi b 1

Externl bredth k k ,g-fi g Internl bredth k g k g g q; , b bg I, g fi gg b ;b g, ff b b

O k , b K M (1909: vol 1, 836) A, , - g bg

. F ff g, Nz () Nz B (: ch )

le 1 Regime of Diffeenil Aumulion

InternalExternal

BreadthDepth

Mergers & AcquisitionsCost-cutting

Green-fieldStagflation


21/74


b b g, g fi bg g bg ( , S R 1990: chs3 5)

Internl deth b g fi fi b g g Externl deth g fi b g -g Ag, , fi b, B g ff C g, , b b g fi H, ffi g q kg g

, g g b H, g ff g g, ggg gfl

N, , , - I , g , fl fi C, g

, b g bU, T - g fi b I k ff- , g q b g, , gfl I, b, g gfl- b b g,

q B g

6. mergers and acquisitions

S , g ff b -, b fi z- g g g g

g gfl L k bgg g gfl Fg 2 g- g g U S T b g , b--b I b g q g-fi Ag , 1895, $100 g-fi


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q g 60 g qO , , g b 350 (!), b 1999, $100 g-fi $215

g ( g )T O , g-fi b g k k g b N g q S g- q g , k g A , bg bg B kg

fi, g fi k g fi g

T g b -g, I b b, b kg A , k gg bk g b g Fg 2 g U S T fi,

g , g bgg , g bg b U S g g I , -g , g 1920, fi bk g g fi b ( , fi g -g kg) T , g- , bg g 1950 1960, bg fi g

( , bg b fi, , ) A , gb , g 1980

. S b g g g k g

g-fi , g -g ( , B : ch ) T b fi, g q llfi g b b I g, gbk bg , g k g-fi k-k k k ( fi Vb; , Nz B : ch )


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1990, g gb ( US-b fi gz)

T bkg , I

, Mg b - k k g g b g E, g , kg kb g (Nz 1995b, 1996)F, bkg g, g, k T q b A g - , -

ff I gfl

7. stagflation

Neuliy

bg , b g g, g g - , gfi fl

O , g g Ifl fi g Ag D Hk F (1996), b fl , Fg 3 UK, - g bk T fi g ; g ;

g ; - F, , F , , , b g- I , tgfltion , g g fl T gfl b P S -1970, b gfl- g bk

D g g,

fl Fg D H

. F fl gfl, Nz (; ), B Nz (b: ch ) Nz B (b;: ch )


24/74


, gg b - O , -, b , - b g b,

Figue Copoe Amlgmion in he Unied Se

Source: Jonathan Nitzan and Shimshon Bichler,Te Global Political Economy of Israel(London:Pluto Press, 00), Data Appendix, pp. 83. Updated to 00.

0

1

10

100

1,000

1880 1900 1920 1940 1960 1980 2000 2020

Buy-to-Build Ratio

(Mergers & Acquisitions as a %

of gross fixed capital formation)

log scale

18950.6%

1999

215%

trend growth rate:

3% per annum

2001

74%

. T T , , b g-fi g, , , J S M (:Bk , ch ) M , I F, Nb L FMg: M , q g- (P Mg : ) A, , g M F(), fl , g ,g , g g


25/74


N, b , bk g g g b fl, fl A Fg 3, UK g

b 1600 1750 I g , qk, b g g I b q G B b k, kg b fl

H, bk g g - F, fl A Fg 3 ,UK b 5,000 b 1900 2000,

800 b S, g Dg fl , , b b 1930 T , g ff , b g g fl B g g , b k

S b fl ?T bg fi T fifl: (1) verge ; (2) gg q; , totl totl T fi q: g P b M q Q(gg ), b P ( ),

M/Q ( ) , T g ggregte fi:

g T , fifl g Ifl g ; b k g -g g b bkb : Ag ,

. T A GM () US , - ( -), g (b - )


26/74


bkb g I g , b kg g S fl I g, fl fi b B , k

Rediiuion

T fl generl, b differentilly. Ifl Ag g fl, never ll rie t the me rte T , g g A g ff , M F , g, fl reditributionl

Figue 3 Conume Pie in he UK

1

10

100

1,000

10,000

1200 1300 1400 1500 1600 1700 1800 1900 2000 2100

log scale

Price increase from 1900 to 2000: 4,867%

Price increase from 1300 to 1900: 769%

1900

S:Global Financial Data (series code: CPGBRM); WEFA.


27/74


T ff fi F b fl ggg ---g---, k -

b T q, fi, , , q g B fl ggg - g b gg, bg gg I , q : g, , ?

Ifl b ff , k gg T fi b b k -

. N g , b fl ( , Pk ) B -, , fl, b g q F, k fl

g (g ) g (g -), fl S, qb, fl g g - , b S g, k bk qb A fi, g fl qb g T k g , b b flk Dqb g ( b b ), b b ff fi g b M, g b , fl b q

U, F,g bb, k qb q ? S, qb , gg, qb B k q-b qb, k ? A fi,

ume fl b ? k b g b b B fi b , , ?

. Ifl b et g k, g fi q


28/74


Fg b fl U S - T fl b g I b

s&p 500 g g g T fi g g z individul b , (b 3- g g)

N, g fl , fl b b k B A

Fg , g b T , , b b g F , fi S , - g g fl, fi g, fl

T b b g fi Fg 5

b fi k F 500 fi k US b T fi k fi fi T b k, Kk (193) g , fi gfi I , ff A , F 500 g g ( -, b k g 16) B g fl the fluctution hve

beenoitively nd tightly correlted with the rte of infltion ( b, fl b g , b 3- g g)

. T k g g g bb gg b WC E-k g Cg gg g , g US fi b g

. T , b fi , g ff b fi fi S I , F bg ggg g, kg ffi I b , , , g


29/74


T kb, g b, M (1935) H H (1939),

g fi g g- g , flb fi k b k N, , b b b fi , fl 1930 T , g,g ff A Fg 5 gg, 1950, US fl bb bg fi

Figue US Inflion nd Cpil-Lo Rediiuion*

-10

-5

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010

1.0

1.5

2.0

2.5

3.0

3.5

4.0

Wholesale Price Index

(annual % change, left)

Corporate Earnings per Share / Wage Rate**

(Index, right)

** Corporate earnings per share are for the S&P 500 Index (ratio of price to price/earnings).

Te wage rate is the average hourly earning in the private sector.

Source: Global Financial Data (series codes: _SPXD for price; SPPECOMW for price/earnings); U.S.Department of Commerce and U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics through WEFA (series codes:AHEEAP for the wage rate; WPINS for the wholesale price index).

* Series are smoothed as 3year moving averages.


30/74


ctively uhing u fi k fi A , g fl gfi g k g I , fl g differentil ccumultion

Figue 5 US Inflion nd Diffeenil Aumulion*

** Te markup is the percent of net profit in sales. Te Fortune 500 markup is the percent ofafter tax profit in sales revenues. Te business sector markup is computed by dividing totalcorporate profit after tax, with IVA and CCA (from the national income accounts) by totalbusiness receipts (from the IRS). Te Ratio of Markups is giving by dividing the Fortune 500markup by the business sector markup.

Source: U.S. Department of Commerce through WEFA (series codes: ZAADJfor total

corporate profit after tax with IVA and CCA; WPINSfor the wholesale price index); U.S. InternalRevenue Service; Fortune.

-12

-10

-8

-6

-4

-2

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

16

1820

22

1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010

0.2

0.4

0.6

0.8

1.0

1.2

1.4

1.6

1.8

2.0

2.2

2.4

2.6

2.8

3.0

3.2

Wholesale Price Index

(annual % change, left)

Ratio of Markups:Fortune 500 / Business Sector**

(right)

* Until 993, the Fortune 500 list included only industrial corporations (firms deriving at leasthalf their sales revenues from manufacturing and/or mining). In 994, the list was expanded to

include all corporations. For 993, data for Fortune 500 companies are reported withoutSFAS 06 special charges. All series are smoothed as 3-year moving averages.


31/74


C, US fl b O , b ytemtic b k fi, fi g fi T g g

b fl B kb direction

Pen

Rb , S fl b -, lwy k

g F , I, k U S, k fl g fi g (Nz B2002: ch ) B , G F, b g, fl b/ b b ( g ggg OECD k ffi gg g fi)

E, , k b fl b Ifl k ; q - -- b g b ; -b g I g, US b g gfi

T , U S ( ), fl b

bg ff W g , k fl fi k g T k g A k g I , they know more or le wht to exect

Aumulion hough Cii

B, , , fi fl? T b fl, g ff gg ff , bzg

. F b fl ff- I S A, Nz B (b; )


32/74


ffi g , k

A , g fl

gg g T I, g, bb g A , -g, fl g T fl b triggered b bb b g , - fl gg b g

U, b Fg 6

g- b fl g U S, gg bk 1890 ( 20- gg) T q b , b g L fl gg, g fl b gexct ooite b Ifl tgfltion. A

U S I , g g- g - b g fl b -, g , g( , Nz 1995; Nz B 2002: Fg 28, 71)

W ff ? T T g- g gg fl k g -

z b T , , b F, -

, z , g U S 7 , g - ( k, g, , b ) V

z ctul g 25 50 -

. I k , ff fl b T reltive ,, ( )


33/74


S, g , g-fi , g bk g g

T q, g, , , b g,

b g g ? T g; forced A b g, g g , M g F W W, G 1920, gb 1970, g I g 1980, b R 1990, b Ag 2000 fl-ggg T ff fl O ,

O , b g fl b I , gfl g Sg , g b, fl , bk ff g ff fl

B g M fl q

g z T fl bg , , b gA, , g g fl g, - kk ff fi, k g g F , , fl b-g Eff b g

. C b under the exiting ocilorder of buine enterrie nd roduction for rofit, z b g A b mte-ril/technologicl , , gg z A , Vb (: ) z , fig ff B (: ) F (: ch ) Ig, g g, US ,gg b , (US Cg : )

. , k E A g , g flling W g - b b g fl? H D g( b g), --GDP k g, EA k g - I k g


34/74


g, not fi I g

8. the new arsenal

, - T g bg g bg b g , T , M g b k , g bg g-, b

Figue 6 Unied Se: Long em Inflion nd Gowh*

Source: Historical data till 98 are from Bank Credit Analyst Research Group. From 99onward, data are from the U.S. Department of Commerce through WEFA(series codes: GDPfor GDP; GDP96 for GDP in constant prices).

* Series are shown as 0-year moving averages. Te smooth curve running through theobservations is drawn freehand for illustration purposes.

** Ratio of GDP in current prices to GDP in constant prices.

-4

-3

-2

-1

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

8

-1 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10

GDP IN CONSTANT PRICES (annual % change)

G

DPIMPLICITPRICEDEFLATOR**(annual%c

hange)

2002

1890


35/74


g I , g , gfi fi b T Vb, g fi b fi

A g bg bolute A , g b; b q; bkb g I , SW W, differentil F, b -q g gfl

T, g,

g, gg q -g g b g -z g T b, ,g g fi W g fi, z -b Ib, fl g bgb B b , b

g fl T g , b q, S g flb fi b A ,ff fl, b g g , bg g b k fi

H, g gfl- k g g g Fg 7 -

U S ( 5- g g) T b g- , g b--b Fg 2 T gfl T g W bg b : -, g, g I GDP Dfl, fl W

g (18902001), z b N , , U S

( g), g fl( G D, ff fl b ggg fl; 18 b) W 1930, , entire eriod w one of tgfltion T gfl


36/74


b gg A g z g, gfl A g b b -g g / fl; , b g gfl S,

Figue 7 Amlgmion nd Sgflion in he Unied Se*

* Series are shown as 5-year moving averages (the first four observations in each series coverdata to that point only).

Source: Te stagflation index is computed from data from the U.S. Department of Commercethrough WEFA (series codes: RUC for the rate of unemployment and GDP/GDP96 for the GDPimplicit price deflator). Te Amalgamation Index is from Jonathan Nitzan and ShimshonBichler, Te Globl Politicl Economy of Irel (London: Pluto Press, 00), Data Appendix,

pp. 83 (updated to 00).

** Computed as the average of: () the standardized deviations from average of the rate ofunemployment, and () the standardized deviations from the average rate of inflation of theGDP implicit price deflator.*** Mergers and acquisitions as a percent of gross fixed capital formation.

0

1

10

100

1,000

10,000

1880 1900 1920 1940 1960 1980 2000

-5

-4

-3

-2

-1

0

1

2

Amalgamation Index***

(Buy-to-Build Indicator, left)

Stagflation Index**(unemployment plus inflation, right)

log scale


37/74


g g b b g g/ fl; , b g gfl

O ff g gfl

ff k A Fg 2, g g-fi - A g, b fi-, b ff , g k b , gg g ffi

A g b g b gfl C k-

k , q g, z, b - b flI , ff b g g - gfl contrdictory th, g I , g ff O g, g

, , gfl k b B S 6, g ffi , , - b g ff gfl

I z, g, g - Dff b I b T b fi, b b D-

gg I, , b ff T gg, , ny S , ff doe not hve to hen I g I bb gfl B g gfl

D k g gfl, b b , fl, A g gfl , k ff decumultion.

I g, z Fg 7 kb, T g gfl g g A , g -


38/74


b g g G b g b ff , , de fcto, b g ff g B

T - g I fl bg b - I

9. deflation

T , b Fg 7 I 2000, -g , bgg - gb g (

Fg 2) I , g gfl b-

T g z bg g ( Nz 1999; 2001)O , g b , - g b g-fi ggk A, L A E Bk,

gb g Ag g k g , A , gfl -1980, 2001 70 , g Fg 7

B , g k- G D CPI fl -z g 1980, g 1 1999 1950 (Fg 10b) S, 2000,

g b , gbgb USk -, g 1930

C, b I, g g z k , g , ffdecumultion kg

. T - g b gfl g - ( g g ) + ,


39/74


he Rik

T g b - - : defltion F , fl T - bg 190 W G D,fl b J M K,

b fig , qk g H bq bk, How to Py for the Wr (190), F , g fl F , bk fi g : 1980, fl bg T , g, g T b () b, -gg g -fl

Figue 8 Te Te of Deflion

* January-April.

Source:Business Source Premier.

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

8

9

10

11

12

13

14

15

16

17

18

1980 1982 1984 1986 1988 1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004

Number of articles containing the word

"deflation" as a % of the number of articles

containing the word "inflation"

percent

*


40/74


b B qfi b g T - g, b W fl, b

A , , g T k Fg 8 T EBSCOBuine Source Premier, b g 2,800 b

Eg F 1980, b fl b fl, b

T 1998 fl : fl--fl g 25

3 B 1998, g fi g-gg A C, g bgg kk, fl kk , 10 I, g g- flg b, kg 1998 k k B g- g g b g g A , 2000, fl fi k

k , fl--fl 8 2001, g 12 2002, 16 fi 2003 T g fl bk g

T fl Fg b ff W g k , kk- fl, b fl B b- O -, 1980, b GDP

T b k g , , b flg GDP, k g g b b T g b gk bz; g g I, , bk fi ffi

. T b fl b , gg g bg, z -z , , g , , , k T g b--GDP bb b g ff-b bg


41/74


( g g ); b b b b; b b bk I

, b b fl, k g 1930A Fg 9, g ,

T , 1919 2002, US k b GDP I , b g 1960, g GDP

A gg b b g I

U S, b g 1929, G D A G D , g GDP b--GDP 270 Ab GDP b--GDP 00 T b ggg , b b , , I , GDP

1960, g g

he Soluion

T b g b O g b g (b g bg -) T GDP g fl, kg b ( GDP g bg

) M fi , g

Ig G Dfl, Finncil ime S B A J, b, fl- 70 ( g b , 70 g b fl

. T fi z b fl A Ig F () F C ( ), b


42/74


) Dfl b , J G, Grnt Interet Rte Oberver B G, Gb, Wz W , fi A Dg, b b fl g T b, FC A G: T U S g fl

O , g b A, , , k, b

T g , b F RB, Ag W, T

Figue 9 Te De Lod

Source: Bk C A R G; World Develoment Indictor.

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

350

1910 1920 1930 1940 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010

United States

Total Credit Market Debt

(Private & Public)

High Income Countries

Total Credit to the Private Sector

Developing CountriesTotal Credit to the Private Sector

1929

percent of GDP

2002

. A q g , b Bk, P (: )


43/74


gg b fl, Nb L MF I Ifl b- fl F R gg k

F R 1930 T fl P T g b F GB Bk, g 2002 N E Cb I , Dfl: Mkg S I D H H, Bk Dfl b fi TUS g, , g g US (Bk 2002)

U, T bk g- B g , O , k g g, K F fl k ctully J 1989 k :

z b fl, fl, A, b RbP (2003), g fl g b g , g g g b g b T gg b fl g

10. the oil factor

Diffeenil Pofi nd he Inf lion Oulook

Ifl b kk- b g bk A , b g fi / k g g g N, k g, fi , g fl Rg b-

A k g , gb b F g, g b g, g g commonoutlook fl g A k k g g fl b,b in their differentil interet


44/74


I , g fl ff -b T fi bg B fi g b , b

fi ; b k gg I , mny fi bg g-fi b individul bg q O - , , g k fi -fig, b k q g brod outlook of comnie

A fl bg A

fi g , bg b b k fi (Fg ) fi g (Fg 5), ff fl fi , g k B k , , , bg, b , g - g fl b ff fi

N rofit execttion rice execttion

T ff I , g , b ivemechnim g g, bg utin g qb I ff ,, fi b ctivetrtegy enhnce

B fi b initil g ff fi ,, bg ( 2003), g

bg D bk g A , g fl g T g g g fi g , gfl b G g g fl, B D G Sk P MC P Finncil ime Ifl , g, , F fl (D

. N ff b bg bg fib I fi , fi , g


45/74


MC 2003) A F b g O A G 1960, kg F fl fi

g F I , G b fl (P R, M 6, 2003)T bb fi G D US bk fl A , S J S fl g-g g b g- g- C, b g g T gg k

Inflion nd he Pie of Oil

I , gg g A , , ,, k O q-, , ff fl k, b, b rie in the rice of oil

T b fl -

Fg 10 T k CPI fl -z ( g b ) T - , 2002 US ( b US CPI) A US ( ) US , A , 1970

fl F -1970 , , b g fl I fl , , , , it till led it tody

N z g fl T b fl

. I, fl gg US k Iq b Ag g,OPEC g g b E , k ; US q Iq g S bg


46/74


k T g g b fl

g g flI 1999, g $10 b, TeEcono-mit L fi T , , k (A 1999) I , US Eg I A b 25 W b g g g, b D b kg fi

g g- I g k fl

B gg I 2001, ff b g D , b fi, b - fl A , g fi b k , A b, Y, Fg 10

,

. O , k Eg ffi b, b A , GDP, A ,

, b fl g (fig B P A;W Bk A)

. I , g g fi, le b b fl T : ; g ; , q, fl F , , b fl, g rtly I , , - I b b -

. C g k EIA bk g ://g////b
http://eia.doe.gov/oiaf/analysispaper/pdf/table13.pdfhttp://eia.doe.gov/oiaf/analysispaper/pdf/table13.pdf


47/74


T g fl g b b I b fl, k b fl- ff T g ff g b g g g gfl A k gg gfi ffi

T q bg D fl, b gg b k, fl g I - fl- fi, k bb b b g g A g g k q g

Figue 1 Inflion nd he Pie of Oil

Source: Interntionl Finncil Sttitic g WEFA ( : L64@C110 CPI z ; L76AA&Z@C001 ;

L64@C111 US CPI)

-5

0

5

10

15

20

1955 1960 1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010

-30

-20

-10

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

100

110

120

Real Price of Oil*

(right)

CPI in the IndustrializedCountries (left)

annual %

change

$2002 / bbl

* fl b US CPI


48/74


, g b b A , ff Lk, g b T

g bgg b g, q F, b g b b - B bb q uroefulhumn ction

Dff finncilform increingcitlit ower.I A g b : ;

; , , b I g , b T , g - b T fi A fi ff I k ,

11. the weapondollar-petrodollar coalition

T g g g - , , , g , kg bk g b b

Mking he Pie Go Up

I , Te Economit , A Ag BPSttiticl Review, gb q 0 - , 30 1960 O , fi, , - b B b gg , no ytemtic imct

S T g fl

, g , I k ,

. T g g , g - , fi b fi g, b G W(B, R, Nz ; Nz, R, B ; R, B,


49/74


I , g, Dg 1970 1980, ,

roe ; g 1980,fell (Nz B 2002: Fg 55, 230)S T b

g B g erceived , - g M E Ag g 30 , T g: ; ; I -

; ; S , g, ff hyicl b gb T g , b b , kg k Y, , b W k , ercetion k g

Confli nd Pofi

H M E k g -? C fi A US - V, g 10 GDP g J 6 C (Fg 16 b) T b , , b ,

US - fi Tbk gg M E, , 1970, S-E A g k

Nz ) T k Nz B(), B Nz (), B Nz (b: ch ) Nz B (: ch )

. A Ag g , g b - I b , b , U, gb

. F , Nz B (: )


50/74


gb T gfi M E fi g Rg b 1980 B

b bgg fizz 1980 g b , M E b fi I , , fl g, US , T ff fi k g g, b g

T fl g fi b qgg ff k T g

, g g gg , US Ag Iq g g g g directcontrol g T b B g g , , k

I, B grou, I bg b 1950 1960,

fl, b $2, -, fi , T g 1970 Gb ff- g , , OPEC , b fl flF , fi , b Dg g , B g , g 15 , -

gfi g , b g

T q b g fl fl Fg 11 T k g fi T , b g

. W g , , gq b , T fl b b g , b - ( B P A; I M F A)


51/74


b b US CPI, gg T b g F , ff , , ff : g - , g gb fi

Figue 11 Te Pie of Oil nd he Glol Diiuion of Pofi*

Source: D(series codes: OILNWD for the integrated oil companies; TOTMKWD forworld total); WEFA (series codes: L76AA&Z@C001 for the price of crude oil; L64@C111 for theU.S. CPI).

** Net profit is computed by dividing market value by the price/earning ratio. Data are restatedto reflect changes in the series constituent companies.

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

100

1950 1955 1960 1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

16

18

20

22

24

Global Net Profit**:

Integrated Oil Companies

as a Share of

All Companies

(right)

$ Price of Oil / U.S. CPI

(one year earlier, left)

$2002 / bbl percent

* Series are smoothed as month moving averages.

. S g q, fi g b

. T ffi b ( ) J , J


52/74


O , F -, , I fi g, , C-

q, loe b ? T g I fi fi, g bb fi B fi fi O , ,g fi , b g

. F , b ; fi fi ; fi B fi, fi () (Q), (C) - fi k (K), :

= K C Q

Ug g, :

k + c + q

S g , c > Ag g, fi b c (k + q) Pfi , , (k + q) < c; , , , k (K Q) by more C Ag b, k F,g b fi fi gz T , , k k fi k g, g (, g gg k fi B b k, k , g kgfi b , -fi )

N, g g k g , O -, g , b

, - A , , g ( g , -) , b , g b g g B , g g g - b , b ( B P A) M, -


53/74


Dg 1980, 2002 $80 b F , g g F , k g b: g

19 gb fi S , , b, fi T 2000, C , fi 3 T g W B g W H -k gb gg , gb fi g b 6 8 O , ,

k g A b , ME b k

T OPEC fl zO , fl b k b, O , erning, g T g Fg 12 T k

fi P-C, -g g : B P (BP-A 1998),C (C- 2000), E (EMb 1999), Mb( 1998), R-D/S ( 2000) ( g g) T OPEC T b b g ( -fi 083) A g g: ME fl, g , k b OPEC

( -OPEC ), fi

S g D fl Wg q g g fl, ff b b fl Ffl b ff , b b fl fl T

b , g g g , , g (c > ) b b g k (k ), b g (q ) T g fi


54/74


q g k T ff g-g g g M E, zb g g fl W , g bfi - A k g, g,

g OPEC T q g k

he Coliion

T b W , g, bg A b g g, fi g

Figue 1 OPEC nd he Oil Compnie

Source: OPEC Annul Sttiticl Bulletin; Fortune.

* British Petroleum (BP-Amoco since 998), Chevron (till 000), Exxon (ExxonMobil since999), Mobil (till 998), Royal-Dutch/Shell and exaco (till 000). Company changes are dueto merger.

-50

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

350

400

450

1955 1960 1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005

-5

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

45

Petro-Core*

Net Profit

(right)

OPEC's

Petroleum Export

(left)

$ billion $ billion


55/74


1970 Weondollr-Petrodollr Colition b g , , fi , OPEC k W g T k g -

fl M E g R k

g g k RN, G F, R Rg Gg B S E J C, M E ff, g gfi g

O - b k US g

zz F , Bk R, U S b g (M Jff 2001: ) I Ag D Yg S D b b F I A, b 197 1981 US g b g , b (Yg1991: 8, 63)

Offi , , g U S -, b g fl , U S b b g T, , V P Gg B S 1986 (New York ime, 7 A 1986)Ig, g, B g g S Ab, kg cut rie ! T k g , b A B S: T

U S , H, g, b (ibid)

Uk , bgT US , g S U - , b M E I,S Ab, Iq, Eg, I S, I K, K,

J, G E T

, , bz, S- S W Rg ( Eg 1977: 22) T b , q g-b, H Kg, k , b g gg bg k (Kg 1981: 81)

U, , g , b b g I ,


56/74


S 1967, g fl, g , -

12. energy conflicts

T b fl M E - S fl , 19901 b Iq US- b b gg , fi Ab-I 1967 1973 I-Iq fl 19808 g gg gg

g M g b kb fl F , , b bfl rofit

Fg 13 Fg 1 fi- P-C Fg 13 q P-C,

F 500 g C g P-C W P-C b F 500 g, ff- W g, ff I fig, k bk, b gz

T ff Fg 1 H ff , fi, b kg

ff b P-C g F 500, g ff F 500 ( z ) H, , ff b P-C k bk b g z

T g g z 11 b Fg 1 E b bk

M E fl 1967 Ab-I W, 1973 Ab-I W, 1979 I R, 1979 S I Ag, 1979I Lb, 19808 I-Iq W, 1982I Lb, 19901 G W, 2000 P Inti-

fd, 2001 US Ag , fi, 20023 GW A , g fl b ff ,


57/74


F, 1960, ll M-E fl

b g P-C b F 500 g I , , energy conflict.N, fig, g kg, : , ff fi , ; g M Ek, g; k g fl; k , bg g

Figue 13 Reun on Equiy: Te Peo-Coe* veu he Foune 5**

Source: Fortune; Standard & Poors Comutt.

* British Petroleum (BP-Amoco since 998), Chevron (till 000), Exxon (ExxonMobil since999), Mobil (till 998), Royal-Dutch/Shell and exaco (till 000). Company changes are dueto merger.

0

5

10

15

20

25

66 68 70 72 74 76 78 80 82 84 86 88 90 92 94 96 98 00 02

Fortune 500

Petro-Core

percent

'Danger Zone'

** Until 993, the Fortune 500 list included only industrial corporations (firms deriving at leasthalf their sales revenues from manufacturing or mining). From 994 onward, the list includes allcorporations. For 993, data for Fortune 500 companies are reported without SFAS 06special charges.


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ff T g , g, g fl g fi , b g differentil fi A Fg 13 , 196970, 1975,19802, 1985, 1991 20012, q P-C ; b more lowly g F 500, bg P-C b b g

Figue 1 Te Peo-Coe Diffeenil Aumulion* nd Middle

Source: Fortune; Standard & Poors Comutt.

* Differential accumulation is defined as the relative deviation of the return on equity of thePetro-Core from the return on equity of the Fortune 500. Te Petro-Core comprises BritishPetroleum (BP-Amoco since 998), Chevron (till 000), Exxon (ExxonMobil since 999),Mobil (till 998), Royal-Dutch/Shell and exaco (till 000). Company changes are due tomerger. Until 993, the Fortune 500 list included only industrial corporations (firms deriving atleast half their sales revenues from manufacturing or mining). From 994 onward, the listincludes all corporations. For 993, data for Fortune 500 companies are reported withoutSFAS 06 special charges.

** Te specific Energy Conflicts are listed in the text.

-80

-60

-40

-20

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

66 68 70 72 74 76 78 80 82 84 86 88 90 92 94 96 98 00 02

percent deviationfrom Fortune 500

'Energy Conflict'

'Danger Zone'

E Enegy Confi**


59/74


A kb , 19967, P-C lwy fl g z T b g bg I g -

b g I b g only g B ll fl

b g P-C ff ff T fi , g kg, b - T b g, b B k ? H b ff decumultion b g lwy gg

M E? O flk ?P B g g ,

fl , ,b US g, g g W-P C (C B Nz1996; Nz B 2002: ch 5) T, g 1967I-Ab W, U S I bk

N b I 1973, N Kg b b S Ab g k I, b g b , I I 1979, P C, Kg, b -R I bffg S zg I U ST U S g g g b I Lb- fi 1979 1982 T US g fi M S Ag 1979 T

US g g Iq k I 1980, b g fl T 1991 Iq K g T US g S H b Wg g K, k T A Gg B

J A S k M

. Ag ffi fl , ,g Iq K US k

. I , , ff - b g fl g , bg g b ff bq


60/74


2000 g g Intifd F, bkg Sb 11 k g ; b - B J k g Ag

Iq bO , b M E b W-P- C US g , gggfl C I fl - T g - , b - b b B M E,

fl b g ; b - g; b z b

O M E fl g gb Dg 1970 1980, fl gg gb g gfl

b ff g, W-P C I , b g g OPEC , g gg -b b

W , , q U, O, ,

g, b T 1971 b bD Ebg Pentgon Per, , b V W (Ck, Z, U S D- D 1971) S, 1975 fi 1950 NS C M 68 (NSC 68) b C W g, , K - (N S C 1950) P

b E P fi NSC R Eg W M E, b g bk Eg Cfl g

O , g 1970 1980 g g b fl T ff g b b fi CW, fl,


61/74


T gg , gz k fl k , g bfi fl k

I , W k b , k ( g), k b

13. breadth and the rise of neoliberalism

T ff g gM E fl g fl g 1980 1990

b S 1980, W-P C g g ffi T fi b (Fg 11)Dff b P-C ffi (Fg 13 Fg 1) Dg 1970 1980, ff E qk b fl, g

b g B , 1980 , b b, ff ff g W , 1991, Gg B S, W-P- fi g , N W O H, B C, k g Ab-I fl W bg g 1990 , g

g W fi fl E kg b , gb-z, gg k

T g fl b S U g B g g ff T , F W S

T, fi bk, ggg b W g, g bgg k W F , - g fi g gb C g- , , k q T b,g bg bg g g


62/74


B 1990, whole g g gfl zg b g g- B g within T

W-P C g g b -Mg C g g-, gb g

Ag b , - T g-, b g B , g g- -Mg C k S, b g -

g 1990, g, g gg

T Fg 15 T fi , b fi: g W--P C, g , , g

-Mg CA , W-P C g 1980 A k , 1981, 20 gb fi T g , k k, 1990, b -Mg C- 2000, 3, 1

F , g g M

b fi g g-g k, b g

. Gb g ffi -, b U S, bb b, B , g US -

g D D (Nz B : ) T g I , b fig g g- b U S - ( F US D DA) T b g fi,b g g


63/74


Figue 15 She of Glol Ne Copoe Pofi*

Source: Datastream (series codes TOTMKWD for world total; OILINWD for integrated oil; DEFENWD

for defense; INFOHWD for information technology hardware; TELEQWD for telecom equipment;SFTCSWD for software and computer services).

* Net profit is computed by dividing market value by the price/earning ratio. Series denotemonthly data smoothed as 12month moving averages.

0

5

10

15

20

25

1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010

percent

The Weapondollar-Petrodollar Coalition(Integrated Oil and Defense)

The Technodollar-Mergerdollar Alliance

(Information Technology Hardware, Telecom

Equipment and Software and Computer Services)

g k k A b bfi , b g g E bg g - g fl g G fi g B -

g T M E k bg gg k, g q g g E I , g ff g g fl gfl, bg N M E I S W B g


64/74


14. the current crossroads

Regouping

T W-P C , F Dg 1990, b gg gz, gg - kg g T fi k g B , g P-C g, k S S, g S C g EU g b , g g g , S Ag Ag, g

I , k b g I 1996,

T I A Sg P S J b A C Bk: A N Sg Sg R (P 1996) T , N g-, g I T N M E b , g C g

g I, I b- Fgg k J, I -, bz bk S, g I , I kg S, , b Lb F, S Iq ff g b M E , ff bk S gS H Iq I g b g g S g b

Ig, A, b b k fig g Gg B J T R P,

. B , g E-Mb ( fi b), R-D S ( b), BP-A ( b-), F E ( b), C- ( b) ENI () bT S Ag Ag, k gg b Gb Hg, Lk-M ( b), Bg ( b), BAES ( b), R ( b), G D ( b), EADS( b) N G ( b) (fig Nz B :b , )


65/74


Pg D P B B O b Dg F, b B Pg;

M W b, D W, b - J B, B S D; J Cb -

J I N S Aff Wg, b - Dk C, J B DgF (Wk 2002)

I 1998, g SH A g 2 b fig, b D

R, P C, g - g bgg S g(R 1998) I , g k B g, k g -

T b b - 90-g , Rbg A D, (D

2000) T b b P N A C(PNAC), - Dk C, D R, P W-z, C ff L Lbb, B b- Ag Z Kz T gA gb , g , g g[] g - bg ,

g [] fi, g b (D 2000: 69) I, g , g GDP, Fg 16, g A T b b ff, A -g , b, k b g , b zg k P

Hb ( 5051)I ff , g , W--P C fi W H T k, ff kM fi , g , , -g g bg b A g k I J2001, C Gg B J O Offi


66/74


he End of Bedh

I , , P Hb: b z, b g g g bg; -k g b gg k,

; US A g B , g , ffi I b, -, , fi 2001 W g g gfl , ff bg g (Fg 7) T fi b

Figue 16 US Miliy Spending She of GDP

S: Nils Petter Gleditsch, Te Peace Dividend(Amsterdam and New York: Elsevier, 996);U.S. Department of Commerce through WEFA (series codes: GDP for GDP; GFML for militaryspending).

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

45

50

1900 1910 1920 1930 1940 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010

Clinton 2000: 3.8%

Reagan: 7.5%

Vietnam: 10%

Korea: 15%

WWII: 43%

WWI: 15%

percent


67/74


I , g k ,Sb 11 bb not b A P HbH k Pg 2001,

b 1990, k k b g, gg k , g- g g , b US - b Gg B J b b bfi b gbz I , 2001 g k ( ) T k k k b , g b , b bg bkfi gg k,

fl g W , -Mg C , fi g, b D fi gg ff , - W-P C , bk fi

he New W

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dominant capital & the new wars

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