NORWEGIAN BUSINESS SCHOOL
J Randers 1 J Randers 1
NORWEGIAN BUSINESS SCHOOL
2052 –
A Global Forecast for the Next Forty Years
Jorgen Randers Professor
Center for Climate Strategy Norwegian Business School BI
50 minutes lecture January 1st, 2014
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12 scenarios for the 21st century
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1900 1950 2000 2050 2100 0
1
1
1 1
2
2
2
2
3
3
3
3 4
4
4
4
5
5
5 5
Year
5: Nonrenewable resources
3: Industrial output
4: Pollution level
2: Food output
1: Population
Limits Scenario 1: Resource crisis
Source: Meadows, Randers and Meadows, LTG 30 year update, 2004
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Limits Scenario 9: Sustainability
Source: Meadows, Randers and Meadows, LTG 30 year update, 2004
1900 1950 2000 2050 2100 Year 0
1
1
1
1
2
2
2
2
3
3
3 3
4 4
4
4
5
5
5
5
5: Nonrenewable resources
1: Population
2: Food output
3: Industrial output
4: Pollution level
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The 3 conclusions of The Limits to Growth
1. The planet is small (Resource constraints are likely within 100 years if growth continue)
2. Overshoot is likely (Current systems of governance are likely to allow human activity to grow beyond the finite carrying capacity of the planet)
3. Once in overshoot, physical contraction is unavoidable (Either managed or by the forces of nature or the market)
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For all numerical data and the forecast model,
consult the book website www.2052.info
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The five regions used in the 2052 forecast
Region Population 2010
(billion people)
GDP 2010
(trillion
$ pr year)
GDP per person 2010
(1000
$ pr person-year) US 0,3 13 41 China 1,3 10 7 OECD-less-US (1) 0,7 22 30 BRISE (2) 2,4 14 6 ROW (3) 2,1 8 4 Sum world 6,9 67 10
Source: Jorgen Randers, 2052, Chelsea Green, Vermont, May 2012
(1) Old industrial world, including EU, Japan, Canada, Australia, New Zealand etc (2) Brazil, Russia, India, South Africa and the ten biggest emerging economies (3) The remaining ca 140 countries of the world
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Figure 4-1 Population – World 1970 to 2050
World population will peak in 2040
Source: Jorgen Randers, 2052, Chelsea Green, Vermont, May 2012
0,0
1,0
2,0
3,0
4,0
5,0
0
2
4
6
8
10
1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050
Birth rate (scale →)
Death rate
Population (←scale)
% / yr Gpersons
g120821 2052 database with slides Graph 1
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World GDP growth will slow down
Source: Jorgen Randers, 2052, Chelsea Green, Vermont, 2012
0
30
60
90
120
150
0,0
1,0
2,0
3,0
4,0
5,0
1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050
World GDP (scale →)
G$ / yr % / yr
Long term growth rate in output per person aged 15 to 65 (←scale)
g130605j
6.0
Gp
8.0
10.0
4.0
2.0
0.0
Population aged 15 to 65 (scale → →)
Figure 4-3b: Gross Domestic product – World 1970 to 2050 Definition: GDP = Population aged 15 to 65 years multiplied with Output per member of potential workforce
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0
30
60
90
120
150
1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050
World GDP
Non-discretionary investment
(“unavoidable repair”)
G$ / yr
Consumption
g120821 2052 database with slides Graph 4
Traditional investment
(24% of GDP)
Figure 4-4: Production, Consumption and Investment – World 1970 to 2050
Source: Jorgen Randers, 2052, Chelsea Green, Vermont, May 2012
Global consumption will peak in 2045
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Figure 5-1: Energy Use – World 1970 to 2050
Energy use will peak in 2040
Source: Jorgen Randers, 2052, Chelsea Green, Vermont, May 2012
0
60
120
180
240
300
0
4
8
12
16
20
1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050
World energy use (←scale)
toe / M$ Gtoe / yr
Energy intensity = Energy use per unit of GDP (scale →)
180
G$ / yr
World GDP (scale →→)
240
300
120
60
0 g120821 2052 database with slides Graph 6
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Figure 5-2: Energy Uses – World 1970 to 2052
Source: Jorgen Randers, 2052, Chelsea Green, Vermont, May 2012
Fossil fuel use will peak around 2030
0,0
1,3
2,6
3,9
5,2
6,5
1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050
Oil use
Gtoe / yr
Nuclear use
Gas use
Coal use
Renewable energy use
g120821 2052 database with slides Graph 8
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Figure 5-3: CO2 Emissions from Energy Use – World 1970 to 2050.
Source: Jorgen Randers, 2052, Chelsea Green, Vermont, May 2012
World CO2 emissions will peak in 2030
0
1
2
3
4
5
0
10
20
30
40
50
1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050
CO2 emissions (←scale)
tCO2 / toe GtCO2 / yr
Climate intensity = CO2 per unit of energy (scale →) 15
Gtoe/yr
Energy use (scale →→)
20
25
10
5
0 g120821 2052 database with slides Graph 9
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Figure 5-4: Climate Change – World 1970 to 2050
Temperature will pass +2 degrees C in 2052
Source: Jorgen Randers, 2052, Chelsea Green, Vermont, May 2012
0,0
0,5
1,0
1,5
2,0
2,5
0
100
200
300
400
500
1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050
CO2 in atmosphere (←scale)
deg C ppm
Temperature rise (scale →)
0.9
m
Sea level rise (scale →→)
1.2
1.5
0.6
0.3
0 g120821 2052 database with slides Graph 10
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Figure 6-1: Food Production – World 1970 to 2050
Food will satisfy demand – but not need
Source: Jorgen Randers, 2052, Chelsea Green, Vermont, May 2012
0,0
0,4
0,8
1,2
1,6
2,0
0,0
2,5
5,0
7,5
10,0
12,5
1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050
Food production (←scale)
Gha Gt / yr
Cultivated land (scale →)
6
t/ha-yr
Gross yield (scale →→)
8
10
4
2
0 g120821 2052 database with slides Graph 11
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1. Growth in population and GDP will slow “by itself” – because of human decision making, not because of planetary constraints
2. But growth will not slow fast enough to avoid a climate crisis
3. There will be enough resources – including energy, water and food – to cover demand (which is not the same as need)
4. There will be more poverty – both in the rich and the poor world
Discussion of the 2052 forecast
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Source: Jorgen Randers, 2052, Chelsea Green, Vermont, May 2012
There will be huge regional differences
0
5 000
10 000
15 000
20 000
25 000
30 000
35 000
40 000
1970 1990 2010 2030 2050
World
BRISE
China
OECDless US
USA
ROW
After-tax income per person (in 2005 PPP $ per person-year)
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Main conclusions from the 2052 forecast ♣ World population and economy
will grow more slowly towards 2052 than most people expect
- but still fast enough to trigger a climate crisis
♣ Consumption will stagnate because world society will have to spend
ever more on repair and adaptation
♣ The short-term nature of man - reflected in the short term focus
of democracy and capitalism - is the root cause of this development
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What should be done? - Ideally
1. Further slow population growth Introduce 1-child policy – first in rich world
2. Cut CO2 emissions – first in the rich world Ban the use of coal, oil and gas from 2024
3. Reduce poverty in the poor world Give them a climate-friendly energy system
4. Reduce the ecological footprint of the rich world Legislate compulsory vacation
5. Temper national short termism Establish supra-national institutions
6. Reduce the focus on income growth Establish “increase in well-being” as a new goal
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What should be done? – Realistically (1 of 2)
1. Further slow population growth Give moral support to women with < 2.1 children Increase the pension age Explain that support burden will stay constant
2. Cut CO2 emissions – first in the rich world Subsidize energy efficiency in all sectors Build no new fossil capacity in the rich world Introduce a high carbon price
3. Reduce poverty in the poor world Use most development aid to build renewable energy capacity Copy the rise of Japan, South Korea, and China – and their use of strong government
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4. Reduce the ecological footprint of the rich world Legislate more compulsory vacation Give each person the right to a certain amount of paid work (“ration paid work”)
5. Temper national short termism Establish a global agreement where all nations promise to emit less CO2 than the US Evolve IPCC to IPCC3 (funded to execute the most effective cuts)
6. Reduce the focus on income growth Start measuring change in well-being alongside change in GDP
What should be done? – Realistically (2 of 2)
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What can you do on your own? Fight short-termism in the following ways: 1. Accept that the root problem is human short-termism
“My greed today damages my grandchildren!”
2. Tell the world that you will do your fair share once the majority agrees to act “I am ready if you are!” 3. Admit that the simplest solution is strong
government “I am in favour of tax-financed, collective action!” Or at the very least: 0. Buy CO2 emission rights in the European quota trading system and burn them!
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Source: Jorgen Randers, 2052, Chelsea Green, Vermont, May 2012
Slowing growth in total productivity - USA
-6,0
-4,0
-2,0
0,0
2,0
4,0
6,0
8,0
10,0
1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010
Rate of growth in GDP per
person 15 to 65 years of age
% / yr
g120821 2052 database with slides Graph 3c
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0,0
0,5
1,0
1,5
2,0
2,5
1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010
Replacement fertility = 2.1 children per woman
Total fertility
Long term trend
POPULATION_BY_AGE_FEMALE_120522.xls
Fertility decline in EU-15 – 1950 to 2010
Source: Jorgen Randers, 2052, Chelsea Green, Vermont, May 2012
Figure A4-1 Total Fertility – EU15 1950 to 2010 Definition: Total fertility = Number of children per woman during reproductive age
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Figure 6-2: Biological Capacity – World 1970 to 2050
Enough land – but less of it undisturbed
Source: Jorgen Randers, 2052, Chelsea Green, Vermont, May 2012
0,0
0,3
0,6
0,9
1,2
1,5
0,0
2,5
5,0
7,5
10,0
12,5
1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050
Total biocapacity (←scale)
gha / person Ggha
Unused biocapacity per person (scale →)
Non-energy footprint (←scale)
g120821 2052 database with slides Graph 12a
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Figure 8-1_o: Past and future OECD-less-US – State of Affairs – 1970 to 2050
OECD outside the US – 1970 to 2050
0,0
0,2
0,4
0,6
0,8
1,0
1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050
Population
Consumption
CO2 emissions GDP
Temperature rise
State of Affairs
Max values 0.8 Gp, 30 G$/yr, 7 GtCO2/yr, 30 G$/yr, 2.5 deg C
g120821 2052 database with slides Graph 13
Source: Jorgen Randers, 2052, Chelsea Green, Vermont, May 2012
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Figure 8-2_o: Past and future OECD-less-US – Production – 1970 to 2050
0,0
0,2
0,4
0,6
0,8
1,0
1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050
Food production
Unused biocapacity
Energy use
Fraction renewable
Investment share of GDP
Production
Max values 3.2 Gtoe/yr, 50%, 40%, 1.2 Gt/yr, 50%
g120821 2052 database with slides Graph 14
Source: Jorgen Randers, 2052, Chelsea Green, Vermont, May 2012
OECD outside the US – 1970 to 2050
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Figure 8-3_o: Past and future OECD-less-US – Standard of Living – 1970 to 2052
0,0
0,2
0,4
0,6
0,8
1,0
1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050
GDP per person
Consumption per person
Energy use per person
Sea level rise
Food per person
Standard of Living
Max values 5 toe/person-yr, 40,000 $/person-yr, 40,000 $/person-yr, 2 t/person-yr, 1.5 m
g120821 2052 database with slides Graph 15
Source: Jorgen Randers, 2052, Chelsea Green, Vermont, May 2012
OECD outside the US – 1970 to 2050