A history of the future of news
What 1767 Tells Us About 2100
Eric Newton
-- Nov. 14, 2011, Arizona State University, Eric Newton, Senior Adviser to the President,
John S. and James L. Knight Foundation
Sources: Various
Evolution of human communication, new categories
Age Human capacity Date (c.) Concept of time
Visual Curiosity 1-2m BC Natural
Language Orality 100,000 BC Cyclical
Mass Media Literacy 1450 AD Linear
Digital Fluency 1991 AD Multi
Visual Language Mass Media HISTORIC AGE
Digital
Global tobillions
MESSAGEREACH
Nearby toa crowd
Communication’s Exponential Rise
We predict the future based on what we know
Joseph Pulitzer’s New York World, Dec. 31, 1899, looking a century ahead
Multi-Time
Multi-Time combines Natural, Cyclical,
Linear, Exponential and Multi-
Dimensional Time
-- graphic by William Newton
Moon travel
Jules Verne, From the
Earth to the Moon, 1865
Science fiction writers go with their imaginations
Geostationary satellite, Arthur C. Clarke, Wireless World, Oct. 1945
Geostationary satellites, Arthur C. Clarke, Wireless World, Oct. 1945
Skype, The Jetsons, 1962
Cell phone, Star Trek, 1964
Flat Screens – Jetsons (1962)
I-pad, 2001, a Space Odyssey, 1968
Each American generation comes of age as a different news medium is rising
Generation Birth Rising media Cycle
Compromise 1767-1791
Pamphlets American Revolution
Transcendental
1792-1821
Partisan weeklynewspapers
(Agricultural era help from
U.S. mail, postal roads)Transcendental
Gilded 1822-1842
Populist daily newspapers
Awakening
Progressive 1843-1859
The Associated Press
(the telegraph)Civil War looms
Generations and cycles from “The Fourth Turning”; media trends from the Newseum, web research
Generation Birth Rising media Cycle
Missionary 1860-1882
Illustrated magazines,niche publications
Civil War
Lost 1883-1900
Major metropolitandaily newspapers
(Industrial era inventions:Light bulb, telephone,
linotype, film, etc.)
Third Great Awakening
G.I. 1901-1924
Photography in print,tabloids
Silent 1925-1942
Radio newscasts, movies and newsreels
Depression, World War
TwoGenerations and cycles from “The Fourth Turning”; media trends from the Newseum News History Content Book; web research
More cycles in time: Awakenings and crises every 80 years
Generation Birth Rising media Cycle
Boom 1943-1960
Glossy color magazines(TV, color TV, home telephones)
Gen X 1961-1981
TV newscasts(Satellites, cable, video tape)
The 1960s awakening
Millennial
1982-2000
World Wide Web (Digital era inventions: personal
computers, the Internet, domestic email, chat, video
games, multimedia)
Cyber 2001-2026
Mobile and Social Media(Cell phones, search, blogs, citizen
media, social media, blogosphere, smart phones, tablets, global World Wide Web, universal e-commerce, remote sensing,
wearable media …)
9-11, recession,WWar 3.0
Generations and cycles from “The Fourth Turning”; media trends from the Newseum , web research
The cycles persist even as information explodes
‘Personal, portable, participatory’ ads, 2002, Minority Report
Wearable media, Dick Tracy, two-way wrist radio, Jan. 13, 1946; upgraded to two-way TV in 1964
RememberMulti-Time!
Like a cyclone, turning but
moving ahead
If patterns hold, our Multi-time future will featureaccelerating new media forms, awakenings and crises
Generation Birth Rising media Cycle
Visionary 2027-2047
Intelligent Media(The cloud, smart grids,
robotics, artificial intelligence)
Mash-up of linear time and cyclical time; generational archetypes from “The Fourth Turning,” tech from “The Singularity is Near,” web research
Robotics, bionics, artificial intelligence,
The Terminator, 1984; Star Trek, The Next Generation, various
Accelerating media, awakenings and crises
Generation Birth Rising media Cycle
Visionary
2027-2047
Intelligent Media(The cloud, smart grids,
robotics, artificial intelligence)
Hybrid 2048-2068
Bio Media(Augmented reality;
nanotechnology; media implants; enhanced human
capacity)
Machine awakening:
The Singularity
Mash-up of linear time and cyclical time; generational archetypes from “The Fourth Turning,” tech from“The Singularity is Near,” web research
Machine awareness, iRobot, 2004
Ray Kurzweil: Machines evolve beyond humans
Generation Birth Rising media Cycle
Visionary 2027-2047
Intelligent Media(The cloud, smart grids,
robotics, artificial intelligence)
Hybrid 2048-2068
Bio Media(Augmented reality;
nanotechnology; media implants; enhanced human
capacity)
Machine awakening:
The Singularity
Courageous
2069-2089
Hyper Media(Cranial downloads;
thought aggregators; sentient environment)
Mash-up of linear time and cyclical time; generational archetypes from “The Fourth Turning,” tech from“The Singularity is Near,” web research
Science Fiction predicts life after the Singularity
Cranial downloads, The Matrix, 1999
Sentient environment, Avatar, 2009
A final crisis or another chance to emerge stronger?
Generation Birth Rising media Cycle
Visionary 2027-2047
Intelligent Media(The cloud, smart grids,
robotics, artificial intelligence)
Hybrid 2048-2068
Bio Media(Augmented reality;
nanotechnology; media implants; enhanced human
capacity)
Machine awakening:
The Singularity
Courageous
2069-2089
Hyper Media(Cranial downloads;
thought aggregators; sentient environment)
Enlightened
2090-2110
Omni Media(Thought projection;
telepathy; telekinesis; teleportation)
World War 4.0: Humans vs. environmentMash-up of linear time and cyclical time; generational archetypes from
“The Fourth Turning,” tech from “The Singularity is Near,” web research
Thought projection, telekinesis, the Matrix, 1999
World War 4.0, the Matrix, 1999
YOUand your children … and their children
… and theirs … will invent this future of news
(or another)through your innovations
and consumption
‘So what does all this have to do with me?’
Steve Jobs at Apple: iMac, iPod, iPhone, iPad
News pioneers often are young: We just don’t hear those stories
What’s a journalism/mass com major to do?
1. Learn truthful storytelling in all media
2. Master computer assisted reporting/design
3. Watch a lot more science fiction!
4. Fool around with a new digital tool every day
5. Rewrite the codes of ethics: New tools make new rules.
6. Follow new technology closely and create news adaptations
7. Practice working in open, collaborative groups
8. Learn about media law (being rewritten for the digital age) business models (ditto), new engagement techniques (ditto).
9. Teach digital media fluency to everyone
10. Develop sources for covering World War 3.0, just in case
Thank You!
Eric Newton, Arizona State UniversityNovember 2011