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Analisi congiunturaleAnalisi congiunturale
Pavia, 22 Marzo 2007
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Indice
• 1 Central bank watching
• 2 lo scenario macroeconomico globale
• 3 short term analysis, daily news e analisi dei dati
(preview e review)
• 4 elaborazione di un rapporto congiunturale
sull’economia italiana
• 5 esempio di elaborazione di indicatori di sintesi
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2 – Central bank watching
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http://www.federalreserve.gov/fomc/#calendars
Calendar, statement and minutes of FOMC meetings
http://www.bea.gov/newsreleases/national/gdp/gdpnewsrelease.htm
National accounts statistics
http://www.federalreserve.gov/fomc/beigebook/2007/default.htm
Beige book is the report prepared by Fed’s districts
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Release Date: December 12, 2006
For immediate release
The Federal Open Market Committee decided today to keep its target for the federal funds rate at 5-1/4 percent.
Economic growth has slowed over the course of the year, partly reflecting a substantial cooling of the housing market. Although recent indicators have been mixed, the economy seems likely to expand at a moderate pace on balance over coming quarters.
Readings on core inflation have been elevated, and the high level of resource utilization has the potential to sustain inflation pressures. However, inflation pressures seem likely to moderate over time, reflecting reduced impetus from energy prices, contained inflation expectations, and the cumulative effects of monetary policy actions and other factors restraining aggregate demand.
Nonetheless, the Committee judges that some inflation risks remain. The extent and timing of any additional firming that may be needed to address these risks will depend on the evolution of the outlook for both inflation and economic growth, as implied by incoming information.
Voting for the FOMC monetary policy action were: Ben S. Bernanke, Chairman; Timothy F. Geithner, Vice Chairman; Susan S. Bies; Donald L. Kohn; Randall S. Kroszner; Frederic S. Mishkin; Sandra Pianalto; William Poole; Kevin M. Warsh; and Janet L. Yellen. Voting against was Jeffrey M. Lacker, who preferred an increase of 25 basis points in the federal funds rate target at this meeting.
il comunicato (statement) della Fed:
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il comunicato (statement) della Fed:
Release Date: January 31, 2007
For immediate release
The Federal Open Market Committee decided today to keep its target for the federal funds rate at 5-1/4 percent.
Recent indicators have suggested somewhat firmer economic growth, and some tentative signs of stabilization have appeared in the housing market. Overall, the economy seems likely to expand at a moderate pace over coming quarters.
Readings on core inflation have improved modestly in recent months, and inflation pressures seem likely to moderate over time. However, the high level of resource utilization has the potential to sustain inflation pressures.
The Committee judges that some inflation risks remain. The extent and timing of any additional firming that may be needed to address these risks will depend on the evolution of the outlook for both inflation and economic growth, as implied by incoming information.
Voting for the FOMC monetary policy action were: Ben S. Bernanke, Chairman; Timothy F. Geithner, Vice Chairman; Susan S. Bies; Thomas M. Hoenig; Donald L. Kohn; Randall S. Kroszner; Cathy E.
Minehan; Frederic S. Mishkin; Michael H. Moskow; William Poole; and Kevin M. Warsh.
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il comunicato (statement) della Fed:
Release Date: March 21, 2007
For immediate release
The Federal Open Market Committee decided today to keep its target for the federal funds rate at 5-1/4 percent.
Recent indicators have been mixed and the adjustment in the housing sector is ongoing. Nevertheless, the economy seems likely to continue to expand at a moderate pace over coming quarters.
Recent readings on core inflation have been somewhat elevated. Although inflation pressures seem likely to moderate over time, the high level of resource utilization has the potential to sustain those pressures.
In these circumstances, the Committee's predominant policy concern remains the risk that inflation will fail to moderate as expected. Future policy adjustments will depend on the evolution of the outlook for both inflation and economic growth, as implied by incoming information.
Voting for the FOMC monetary policy action were: Ben S. Bernanke, Chairman; Timothy F. Geithner, Vice Chairman; Thomas M. Hoenig; Donald L. Kohn; Randall S. Kroszner; Cathy E. Minehan; Frederic S. Mishkin; Michael H. Moskow; William Poole; and Kevin M. Warsh.
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il comunicato (statement) della Fed:
Nello statement la frase cerchiata in rosso sull’eventuale necessità di ulteriori rialzi scompare, in ragione dell’aumentata incertezza sulle condizioni macroeconomiche.
Nei grafici che seguono si evidenziano le reazioni del mercato al comunicato: i grafici sono intraday tratti da bloomberg e riguardano nell’ordine
Il contratto future 3 mesi sul dollaro in scadenza a dicembre 2007 (registra direttamente le attese del mercato sui movimenti della politica monetaria)
Il rendimento del tasso di interesse sul titolo 10 anni benchmark (il più liquido)
Il cambio euro dollaro
Il Dow Jones
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Le attese del mercato
I tre grafici che seguono si concentrano sulle attese del mercato
Le prime due tabelle sono le serie dei contratti future 3 mesi in scadenza a varie date per il dollaro e per l’euro che mostrano come il mercato prezzi 50 bp di tagli della Fed entro dicembre del 2007 e altri 25 bp più avanti, mentre per eurozona l’attesa è di 25 bp di rialzo molto vicino nel tempo.
Il grafico seguente mostra l’evoluzione di queste attese sui contratti 3 mesi future in scadenza a dicembre 2007. Si noti la maggiore volatilità in relazione ai tassi sul dollaro
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17Source: UniCredit Research & Strategy, OECD
4.3
4.5
4.7
4.9
5.1
5.3
5.5
5.7
5.9
16/03/2006 28/05/2006 09/08/2006 21/10/2006 02/01/2007 16/03/2007
2.8
3
3.2
3.4
3.6
3.8
4
4.2
4.4
Futures 3M $ Dec 07
Futures 3M € Dec 07, r.s.
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L’economia americana
C’è una motivazione macroeconomica sottostante: segue una raccolta di evidenze sull’economia americana a partire dalla tabella sui dati di contabilità nazionale più recenti.
La preoccupazione maggiore, come detto nello statement della Fed riguarda il settore immobiliare.
Per un esempio di costruzione e scrittura di un rapporto sull’economia USA si veda l’allegato “why worrying about the US economy”
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19Source: UniCredit Research & Strategy, OECD
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20Source: UniCredit Research & Strategy, OECD
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21Source: UniCredit Research & Strategy, OECD
Housing starts
1300
1400
1500
1600
1700
1800
1900
2000
2100
2200
2300
gen-96 nov-97 set-99 lug-01 mag-03 mar-05 gen-07
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22Source: UniCredit Research & Strategy, OECD
Building permits
1300
1400
1500
1600
1700
1800
1900
2000
2100
2200
2300
gen-96 nov-97 set-99 lug-01 mag-03 mar-05 gen-07
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23Source: UniCredit Research & Strategy, OECD
14.5
15
15.5
16
16.5
17
17.5
18
18.5
gen-00 set-01 mag-03 gen-05 set-06
Total Veichle salesTotal Veichle sales 6mma
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24Source: UniCredit Research & Strategy, OECD
-12
-7
-2
3
8
13
18
gen-98 lug-99 gen-01 lug-02 gen-04 lug-05 gen-07
Durables Var. % a/a 6mma
Durables less transport Var. % a/a 6mma
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25Source: UniCredit Research & Strategy, OECD
-15.0
-10.0
-5.0
0.0
5.0
10.0
15.0
20.0
1999Q1 2000Q2 2001Q3 2002Q4 2004Q1 2005Q2 2006Q3
Residential investment Var. % a/aEquipment and Software Var. % a/a
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26Source: UniCredit Research & Strategy, OECD
40
45
50
55
60
65
70
gen-99 set-99 mag-00 gen-01 set-01 mag-02 gen-03 set-03 mag-04 gen-05 set-05 mag-06 gen-07
ISM non manufacturing
ISM manufacturing
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27Source: UniCredit Research & Strategy, OECD
35
40
45
50
55
60
65
70
gen-98 nov-99 set-01 lug-03 mag-05 mar-07
Chicago PMI
Philly Fed Index
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28Source: UniCredit Research & Strategy, OECD
-2%
0%
2%
4%
6%
8%
10%
12%
giu-96 mar-97 dic-97 set-98 giu-99 mar-00 dic-00 set-01 giu-02 mar-03 dic-03 set-04 giu-05 mar-06 dic-06
RETAIL SALES yoy
RETAIL SALESEX.AUTO yoy
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29Source: UniCredit Research & Strategy, OECD
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-400
-300
-200
-100
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
gen-99 feb-00 mar-01 apr-02 mag-03 giu-04 lug-05 ago-06
-160
-140
-120
-100
-80
-60
-40
-20
0
20
40
Total Payrolls change
Manufacturing: payrolls change RS
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-3%
-2%
-1%
0%
1%
2%
3%
4%
mag-99 feb-00 nov-00 ago-01 mag-02 feb-03 nov-03 ago-04 mag-05 feb-06 nov-06
0%
1%
2%
3%
4%
5%
6%
7%
8%
9%
10%
Personal income momPersonal income yoy RS
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E in Europa?
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33Source: World Economic Outlook September 2005. Data in percentage change from previous year.
Contesto globale favorevole
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
1980 1983 1986 1989 1992 1995 1998 2001 2004 2007
-2
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
World GDPTrade volume
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…le tipiche esogene: oil prices and exchange rate
18
28
38
48
58
68
78
gen-01 dic-01 nov-02 ott-03 set-04 ago-05 lug-06
0.83
0.93
1.03
1.13
1.23
1.33Oil priceEur/USD
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Governor Trichet highlighted the fact that the ECB will continue to monitor all developments “very closely”, hence hinting at the likelyhood of further rate rises. Nevertheless, he also dimmed the monetary policy as being now on the “accommodative side” instead of simply being “accommodative”, and defined rates as “moderate” instead of “low” as he did in the past, hence indicating that the ECB job in “normalizing” rate levels is likely to be almost finished.
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36Source: UniCredit Research & Strategy, OECD
-35
-30
-25
-20
-15
-10
-5
0
5
10
gen-91 lug-92 gen-94 lug-95 gen-97 lug-98 gen-00 lug-01 gen-03 lug-04 gen-06
65
75
85
95
105
115
125
Consumer confidence, L sc.
Industrial confidence, L sc.
Economic sentiment, R sc.
EU confidence indicators
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37Source: UniCredit Research & Strategy, OECD
4.3
4.5
4.7
4.9
5.1
5.3
5.5
5.7
5.9
16/03/2006 28/05/2006 09/08/2006 21/10/2006 02/01/2007 16/03/2007
2.8
3
3.2
3.4
3.6
3.8
4
4.2
4.4
Futures 3M $ Dec 07
Futures 3M € Dec 07, r.s.
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38Source: UniCredit Research & Strategy, OECD
-35
-30
-25
-20
-15
-10
-5
0
5
10
gen-91 lug-92 gen-94 lug-95 gen-97 lug-98 gen-00 lug-01 gen-03 lug-04 gen-06
65
75
85
95
105
115
125
Consumer confidence, L sc.
Industrial confidence, L sc.
Economic sentiment, R sc.
EU confidence indicators
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3 – Daily news e analisi dei dati (preview e review)
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Daily analysis
Vediamo ora che tipo di analisi è richiesta (specialmente in una banca d’investimento) sui dati in uscita. Prendiamo a titolo di esempio la produzione industriale italiana. La prima tabella mostra il “ciclo dei dati” relativi all’Italia (non è aggiornatissimo, alcune cose sono cambiate).
Il punto di partenza segue la tabella relativa ai dati di gennaio su cui, si può essere chiamati a fare “review”.
Segue poi il calendario di aprile dei dati; la produzione industriale relativa al mese di febbraio è in uscita il 12 aprile. Si può essere chiamati a farne una “preview”.
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il “ciclo” dei dati italiani…
Market impact Source Publication dates
Industrial activity
Industrial production index (unudjusted*, workday adj***, sa and wda****)
M **** ISTAT
First half of the following
month
Orders M ** ISTAT End of the second following month
Industrial sales
M ** ISTAT End of the second following month
Business survey M
**** ISAE End of the month
PMI index: -manufacturing -services
M M
*** ***
Reuters/Adaci
First wd of the following month
Third wd of the following month
Employment and labor market
Unemployment and jobs Q *** ISTAT End of the month followingh the quarter
Large firms employment M
* ISTAT Beginning of the third
following month Large firm services employment
M * ISTAT
Beginning of the third following month
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Retail sales and consumer confidence
Retail sales
M *** ISTAT End of the second
following month
Car registration
M **
ANFIA Beginning of the following month
Consumer confidence survey
M **** ISAE Third week of the month
Prices
Consumer price index – 12 cities
M ****
ISTAT Third week of the month
Consumer price index – preliminary figures
M ***
ISTAT End of the month
Producer price index M ** ISTAT End of the following month
National accounts
Quarterly national accounts – preliminary figures
Q ****
ISTAT 45 days after the end of the quarter (but only aggregate GDP )
Quarterly national accounts – detailed figures
Q
****
ISTAT About ten weeks after the quarter
Trade balance
Trade balance -Intra EU -Extra EU
M M
**
ISTAT End of the following month
End of the second following month
Budget deficit
SSBR M
*** Treasury Ministry
First wd of the following month
Deficit/GDP as for Maastricht
Y
* ISTAT March of the following year
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La produzione industriale: gennaio (review)
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La produzione industriale: gennaio (review)
La produzione industriale italiana in gennaio è scesa dell’1.4% m/m dopo un identico incremento in dicembre. Non si può nascondere il sospetto che sia più rumore statistico che altro, visto che nessun indicatore segnalava nulla di intenso per dicembre.
In ogni caso guardare di per se il dato di gennaio è complicato (tutto in rallentamento). Più utile dare uno sguardo all’intero 2006. Si nota che
La produzione grezza è cresciuta del 4,1% a/a (complice una giornata lavorativa in più) la produzione aggiustata per le giornate dell’1,0% a/a. Si noti che l’indice aggiustato per la stagionalità è pari a 96,4 (base 2000 = 100).
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La produzione industriale: febbraio (preview)
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La produzione industriale: febbraio (preview)
Il 12 aprile verrà diffusa la rilevazione di febbraio. Cosa ci si può attendere?
Le survey sulla fiducia delle imprese negli ultimi mesi hanno mostrato una certa stabilità; dopo il calo di gennaio la survey ISAE ha recuperato in gennaio pur rimanendo sotto il livello di dicembre. L’indice PMI pur segnalando qualche indebolimento è ben al di sopra della soglia di espansione.
Gli ordini non hanno fornito indicazioni particolarmente brillanti.
Il mercato dell’auto è in netto progresso.
Quindi?
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…un passo in
avanti…
Dependent Variable: DLOG(PRSA) Method: Least Squares Date: 04/04/05 Time: 15:00 Sample (adjusted): 1991M02 2004M12 Included observations: 167 after adjustments
Variable Coefficient Std. Error t-Statistic Prob. C 0.433134 0.120151 3.604912 0.0004
DLOG(PRSA(-1)) -0.116492 0.071926 -1.619611 0.1073 DLOG(PRSA(-2)) 0.098807 0.071869 1.374811 0.1712 LOG(PRSA(-1)) -0.174834 0.038136 -4.584551 0.0000 LOG(IP_US(-1)) 0.041740 0.013693 3.048363 0.0027 DLOG(IP_US) 0.396360 0.118656 3.340405 0.0010 DLOG(ITL(-3)) 0.043673 0.021459 2.035246 0.0435 LOG(ITL(-4)) 0.019520 0.006726 2.901998 0.0042
IFO(1) 0.000267 0.000161 1.660140 0.0989 PRODLEV(-1) 0.000222 8.44E-05 2.626509 0.0095 D(ORDTOT) 0.000249 0.000111 2.252722 0.0257
@PCHY(CARS) 0.007907 0.003536 2.236086 0.0268 R-squared 0.327138 Mean dependent var 0.000519
Adjusted R-squared 0.279387 S.D. dependent var 0.008167 S.E. of regression 0.006933 Akaike info criterion -7.035937 Sum squared resid 0.007450 Schwarz criterion -6.811889 Log likelihood 599.5007 F-statistic 6.850851 Durbin-Watson stat 2.011408 Prob(F-statistic) 0.000000
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…un passo in
avanti…
Dependent Variable: DLOG(PRSA) Method: Least Squares Date: 04/04/05 Time: 14:57 Sample (adjusted): 1997M08 2004M12 Included observations: 89 after adjustments
Variable Coefficient Std. Error t-Statistic Prob. C 0.659519 0.274652 2.401289 0.0188
DLOG(PRSA(-1)) -0.198296 0.107266 -1.848642 0.0684 DLOG(PRSA(-2)) 0.019436 0.100375 0.193632 0.8470 LOG(PRSA(-1)) -0.251788 0.080923 -3.111457 0.0026 LOG(IP_US(-1)) 0.049736 0.025650 1.939064 0.0562 DLOG(IP_US) 0.026998 0.165734 0.162899 0.8710 DLOG(ITL(-3)) 0.042265 0.031048 1.361281 0.1774 LOG(ITL(-4)) 0.028842 0.011343 2.542730 0.0130
IFO(1) 0.000466 0.000302 1.542411 0.1271 PRODLEV(-1) 0.000182 0.000147 1.240597 0.2186 D(ORDTOT) 0.000286 0.000145 1.968719 0.0526
@PCHY(CARS) 0.006289 0.004560 1.379342 0.1718 D(PMI(-1)) 0.001628 0.000590 2.758358 0.0073
R-squared 0.406769 Mean dependent var -9.41E-05
Adjusted R-squared 0.313100 S.D. dependent var 0.007393 S.E. of regression 0.006127 Akaike info criterion -7.218035 Sum squared resid 0.002853 Schwarz criterion -6.854526 Log likelihood 334.2025 F-statistic 4.342657 Durbin-Watson stat 1.986706 Prob(F-statistic) 0.000031
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49
La produzione industriale: febbraio (preview)
La nostra piccola equazione (ecm) per fare previsione un passo in avanti (tutte le esogene utilizzate sono già note) è in due versioni: con il PMI (campione + corto) e senza (dal 1991).
Tenuto conto di questa evidenza, ci aspettiamo un piccolo rimbalzo della produzione industriale (+0,4% m/m).
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4 – la redazione di un rapporto congiunturale sintetico
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Abstract e contesto internazionale
•Situazione dell’economia italiana
•Elementi di scenario internazionale (le “esogene”)
•Prospettive a breve-medio termine
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52
I più recenti dati di contabilità nazionale
Breve commento alla dinamica del Pil e delle componenti (del conto delle risorse e degli impieghi, il Pil dal lato della domanda), eventualmente con confronti internazionali (verso Eurozona in particolare).
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I più recenti dati di contabilità nazionale
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54
I dati di contabilità nazionale
-0.8
-0.3
0.2
0.7
1.2
Q1 2000 Q2 2001 Q3 2002 Q4 2003 Q1 2005 Q2 2006
-2
-1
0
1
2
3
4
PIL, var. % t/t sc. sx PIL, var. % a/a
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55
I dati di contabilità nazionale
-1.0
-0.5
0.0
0.5
1.0
1.5
Q1 2002 Q4 2002 Q3 2003 Q2 2004 Q1 2005 Q4 2005 Q3 2006
-5
-3
-1
1
3
5Investimenti, var. % t/tConsumi privati, var. % t/tExport, var. % t/tPIL, var. % t/t sc. sx
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56
I più recenti dati di contabilità nazionale
Italian GDP growth hit 1.9% in 2006, the strongest since 2000, doubling the average of the preceding five years. This year also industrial output rose (work day adjusted production grew by 2.4%) for the first time after 5 years of consecutive contraction. In Q4 in particular there has been an unexpected acceleration, with GDP growth hitting 1.1% q/q, the strongest quarterly pace since Q4 1999. As for component, data signal a significant rebound in investment and a good performance in private consumption. Despite this good domestic demand growth, net exports have given a positive contribution, thanks to world trade volume growth.
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Statistiche mensili sui consumi
Cosa dicono le statistiche a frequenza più alta sull’andamento dei consumi nel trimestre in corso:
•Vendite al dettaglio
•Fiducia consumatori
•Immatricolazioni di auto (consumo di beni durevoli)
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58
Statistiche mensili sui consumi
-3.0
-1.5
0.0
1.5
3.0
gen-01 giu-01 nov-01 apr-02 set-02 feb-03 lug-03 dic-03 mag-04 ott-04 mar-05 ago-05 gen-06 giu-06 nov-06
-4
-2
0
2
4
6
Retail sales, var. % m/m
Retail sales, Var. % y/y
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59
Statistiche mensili sui consumi
90
100
110
120
130
gen-01 nov-01 set-02 lug-03 mag-04 mar-05 gen-06 nov-06
Consumer confidence index
Consumer confidence, 3mma
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Statistiche mensili sui consumi
On the consumer side, retail sales were up by 1.2% in 2006 (in nominal terms) being flat on the month in December and up 0.9% y/y. The evidence coming from car registration is more reassuring: they rose by 3.5% in January, after a 3.8% increase in the whole 2006.
Also consumer confidence has been characterised by some bumpiness in recent months although an improving trend is graphically evident. The recent maximum has been hit in December at 113.6 still quite far from 126.9 hit in February 2002. However, the labour market continues to be a bright star in this picture, and it is the most clear element conferring solidity to the domestic demand
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61
Statistiche mensili su produzione e imprese
•Produzione industriale
•Ordini e fatturato
•Indagini PMI
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L’attività produttiva e la fiducia delle imprese
92
94
96
98
100
102
104
giu-00 feb-01 ott-01 giu-02 feb-03 ott-03 giu-04 feb-05 ott-05 giu-06 feb-07
80
85
90
95
100
105
110
Industrial production index, sa ls
ISAE, business confidence, rs.
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L’attività produttiva e la fiducia delle imprese
40
45
50
55
60
65
gen-98 nov-98 set-99 lug-00 mag-01 mar-02 gen-03 nov-03 set-04 lug-05 mag-06
PMI - serviziPMI - manifatturiero
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Statistiche mensili su produzione e imprese
The last available figure on industrial output, referring to January, witnessed a rather strong decline (-1.4%m/m) after the equivalent jump in December and suggesting that end of last year figures could have been a little exaggerated by a purely statistical effect. Nonetheless the whole picture for manufacturing is positive. Monthly surveys data suggest however that the growth impetus could have moderated slightly. The ISAE business survey and PMI’s indices hit their maximum levels during summer and then fluctuated at quite high levels but without further acceleration. In particular ISAE business confidence stands at 95.4 in February down from the June 06 recent high at 98.2 and from the July 2000 maximum at 101.8. PMI figures stand at 54.2 in February for manufacturing (versus 57.5 last June) and at 55.4 in January for services (versus 61.8 in May 2006) with respectively 19 and 17 consecutive months of expansion.
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Anche per l’Italia non si registrano pressioni inflattive (ma
vi sono pressioni sui margini delle imprese
1.5
1.7
1.9
2.1
2.3
2.5
2.7
2.9
3.1
3.3
gen-00 set-00 mag-01 gen-02 set-02 mag-03 gen-04 set-04 mag-05 gen-06 set-06
-2
-1
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
CPI var. % y/y
PPI var. % y/y
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Il commercio estero e la competitività
The competitiveness problems that the Italian economy recently experienced cannot vanish in a year: they are masked by strong trade volume growth, and they get some answers from the corporate sector and, arguably, by some action from the economic policy broadly intended.
But they have still some weight: January figures suggesting a significant brake in exports towards non-EU countries (-7.9%) sound some alarm bells. In 2006 the trade balance recorded a deficit of 21.1 bln € up from 9.4 bln in 2005. In nominal terms export grew by 8.8% last year, while import rose by 12.3%.
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La bilancia commerciale
Bilancia Commerciale intra UE: € mld
-2.0
-1.5
-1.0
-0.5
0.0
0.5
1.0
1.5
2.0
2.5
gen feb mar apr mag giu lug ago set ott nov dic
2005
2006
2007
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68
La bilancia commerciale
Bilancia commerciale extra-EU: € mld
-5.0
-4.0
-3.0
-2.0
-1.0
0.0
1.0
2.0
gen feb mar apr mag giu lug ago set ott nov dic
2007 2005
2006
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Un punto di vista originale: la survey
Unicredit Confapi
Nelle tabelle e grafici che seguono sono riportati i risultati in termini di saldo (differenza percentuale tra imprese che rispondono “migliora” e quelle che rispondono “peggiora”) che mostrano un notevole ottimismo sia sulle condizioni correnti che su quelle future.
Questo ottimismo impatta per la prima volta anche sui risultati operativi (l’utile lordo) ed è dovuto ad un miglioramento dei margini che dipende non da un aumento dei prezzi ma da costi di produzione più bassi (i due grafici ad istogrammi sono le risposte date sei mesi fa ed oggi alla domanda: di quanto sono variati i vostri prezzi di listino e i vostri costi di produzione?) A migliorare sono principalmente le imprese più piccole.
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70Source: UniCredit Research & Strategy, OECD
Saldi II Sem2003
I Sem 2004
II Sem 2004
I Sem 2005
II Sem 2005
I Sem 2006
II Sem 2006
Livello della produzione 6.9% 11.8% 10.4% -0.1% 12.1% 26.8% 31.5%Livello degli ordini 5.2% 12.1% 8.3% -6.4% 11.8% 27.2% 28.0%Ordini Italia 0.0% 6.2% 5.6% -5.9% 6.8% 21.3% 24.3%Ordini UE -6.8% 4.9% 4.7% -3.3% 3.8% 18.6% 22.7%Ordini extra UE -9.4% 7.3% -3.4% -0.3% 4.4% 15.0% 16.2%Livello del fatturato 8.1% 14.3% 15.1% 1.3% 12.5% 26.3% 30.9%Fatturato Italia 2.9% 9.3% 11.8% -3.3% 9.2% 23.7% 27.0%Fatturato UE -3.7% 6.9% 8.0% -0.3% 4.4% 19.4% 24.3%Fatturato extra UE -6.9% 4.9% 0.5% -1.0% 3.2% 15.4% 20.2%Ore lavoro straordinario - - - -19.1% -10.3% -1.9% 4.7%Occupazione 0.0% 3.8% 2.2% -2.3% 0.0% 9.3% 9.4%Variazione utile lordo - - -6.1% -22.9% -9.1% -6.5% 6.2%
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71Source: UniCredit Research & Strategy, OECD
Saldi I Sem 2004
II Sem 2004
I Sem 2005
II Sem 2005
I Sem 2006
II Sem 2006
I Sem 2007
Produzione attesa 19.1% 14.5% 16.0% 8.8% 22,2% 24.2% 30.4%Ordini attesi 19.3% 15.3% 16.2% 7.9% 22.3% 23.8% 31.0%Ordini attesi Italia - - 12.3% 3.7% 19.4% 21.3% 34.9%Ordini attesi UE - - 24.3% 3.9% 15.4% 18.2% 34.5%Ordini attesi extra UE - - 18.8% 6.6% 15.1% 12.7% 33.3%Fatturato atteso 20.1% 15.2% 18.6% 9.0% 22.4% 26.4% 37.3%Fatturato atteso Italia - - 14.4% 3.6% 20.0% 23.9% 33.7%Fatturato atteso UE - - 8.1% 2.8% 14.0% 18.4% 33.5%Fatturato atteso extra UE - - 14.7% 6.1% 14.4% 12.6% 29.6%Tendenze dell'occupazione 9.8% 2.3% 6.3% 0.6% 8.7% 8.6% 19.1%
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72Source: UniCredit Research & Strategy, OECD
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
30%
35%
< -20 tra -20e -10
tra -9 e-5
tra -4 e-2
tra -2 e0
0 tra 0 e2
tra 2 e4
tra 5 e9
tra 10 e20
>20
Variazioni prezzi di listinoVariazioni costi produzione
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73Source: UniCredit Research & Strategy, OECD
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
30%
35%
< -20 tra -20e -10
tra -9 e-5
tra -4 e-2
tra -2 e0
0 tra 0 e2
tra 2 e4
tra 5 e9
tra 10 e20
>20
Variazioni prezzi di listinoVariazioni costi produzione
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74Source: UniCredit Research & Strategy, OECD
-32
-27
-22
-17
-12
-7
-2
3
8
13
1 - 5 6 - 9 10 - 20 21 - 49 50 - 99 100 - 249
II Sem 2004 I Sem 2005
II Sem 2005 I Sem 2006
II Sem 2006
Utile lordo per dimensione
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The scenario ahead
After a stronger than expected 2006, we expect that 2007 will remain approximately on the same tone. In fact with a global scenario implying a slight cooling off of US growth, the lower external demand should be (not entirely) compensated by domestic demand. The optimism shown by the corporate sector should imply another positive year in terms of investment spending. This regained resiliency and the positive signs on the behaviour of Italian firms should imply a progressive closure of the growth gap with the other Eurozone countries. A note on politics is unavoidable: there is a clear commitment in the country to the need of improving economic efficiency via the empowering of competitive pressures in services, in public administration and obviously in all the private sector. Some political action has already been taken in that direction; however the fragility of the current political picture represents an obvious risk in that direction.
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Forecasts
Italy
2005 2006 2007 2008 2009GDP 0.1 1.9 1.7 1.6 1.4Investment -0.5 2.3 2.7 2.4 2.5Private consumption 0.6 1.5 1.9 1.5 1.3Export -0.5 5.3 2.1 2.8 2.5Import 0.5 4.3 2.8 3.4 3.1Inflation 2.1 2.2 2 1.9 1.9Unemployment rate 7.7 6.9 6.4 6.3 6.2
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77
Forecasts Eurozone
2005 2006 2007 2008 2009GDP 1.4 2.6 2.2 1.9 1.5Investment 2.5 4.5 3.1 1.6 2.8Private consumption 1.5 1.9 2.1 1.6 1.4Export 4.2 8.4 2.9 3.6 2.9Import 5.2 7.8 3.6 3.2 3.4Inflation 2.3 2.2 2.1 1.8 1.8
Germany
2005 2006 2007 2008 2009GDP 0.9 2.7 1.9 1.9 1.5Investment 6.5 7.3 2.6 0.7 2.8Private consumption 0.1 0.8 1.5 1.5 1.1Export 6.9 12.5 3.9 4.1 4Import 6.5 11.1 4.3 2.5 2.9Inflation 1.9 1.8 2.1 1.6 1.6Unemployment rate 11.7 10.9 10.6 10.4 10.4
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6 – esempio di elaborazione di indicatori di sintesi
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Come sintetizzare l’informazione disponibile?
1. I molti dati disponibili a frequenza mensile non forniscono sempre indicazioni concordi.
2. Può essere utile anche come strumento di descrizione e comunicazione disporre di indicatori coincidenti del ciclo economico.
3. Sviluppo recente di metodologie che si fondano sull’utilizzo di large dataset.
4. Applicazioni: CFNAI index http://www.chicagofed.org/economic_research_and_data/cfnai.cfm
Eurocoin http://www.cepr.org/data/EuroCOIN/latest/
Abbiamo elaborato per Germania Austria e Italia un indicatore simile al CFNAI.
Vedi il documento allegato.
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80Source: UniCredit Research & Strategy, OECD
-2.5
-2
-1.5
-1
-0.5
0
0.5
1
1.5
2
2.5
Jan-00 Aug-00 Mar-01 Oct-01 May-02 Dec-02 Jul-03 Feb-04 Sep-04 Apr-05 Nov-05 Jun-06 Jan-07
Germany economic activity index
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81Source: UniCredit Research & Strategy, OECD
Austria economic activity index
-3.5
-2.5
-1.5
-0.5
0.5
1.5
2.5
3.5
Jan-00 Aug-00 Mar-01 Oct-01 May-02 Dec-02 Jul-03 Feb-04 Sep-04 Apr-05 Nov-05 Jun-06 Jan-07
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82Source: UniCredit Research & Strategy, OECD
Italy economic activity index
-2
-1.5
-1
-0.5
0
0.5
1
1.5
2
Jan-00 Aug-00 Mar-01 Oct-01 May-02 Dec-02 Jul-03 Feb-04 Sep-04 Apr-05 Nov-05 Jun-06 Jan-07
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The Italian economic activity index recorded a strong increase in December when it reached 0.87, i.e. the highest value since March 2001.The December pick-up was substantially triggered by the improvement of the production-related component which followed the huge increase in industrial production this month.
On the other hand, consumption related-indicators were substantially stable in December, however lower if compared with the stronger recovery observed in September and in October.
A preliminary estimate, based on an incomplete set of data, leads us to expect that the Italian activity index will slow down somewhat at the beginning of 2007, but will still settle on good levels.
It should be dragged down by the stall of the industrial activity, notwithstanding a slight improvement in consumer-related indicators.