Building Intui+on for
Low Frequency High Consequence
Events
ClintonA.Culp,Ph.D.MontanaStateUniversityBillings
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Whatwewillcover• Frequency/ConsequenceCon?nuum• Howwemakedecisions• Howtobuildourintui?ons
Whatwewilldo
• Buildandconductapre-mortem• Conductapost-mortem(aHerincidentreview)• Designandconductarealis?cdecision-makingexercise(DMX)
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Situa1on:Youarepreparingtoleadagroupof4peopleonanovernightbackcountryski/snowboardtripintotheTetons,WYwiththegoalofskiing/snowboarding“ShoottheMoon”andotherrunsinthearea.Yourpar?cipantsreporttheyhaveaboveaverageskiing/snowboardingability.Yousentthegearlistoutbuthavenotheardbackfromthem.Youwillmeetthemforthefirst?meintwodaysatthetrailhead.Thetrailheadisatabout6,500feet,youplanoncampingataround9,500feetandthehighpassisat10,200feet,10+milesroundtripnotincludingtheotherruns.Theweatherthelastfewdayshasbeensunnyandstablewithbelowfreezingtemperaturesduringthedayandbelow0Ofatnight.Theforecastforthenext4dayscallsforthesamebutthereisafrontmovinginfromthewestanditisexpectedtoputupto10inchesofnewsnowonthemountains.Avalancheforecasthasbeenfavorable,moderateonallaspectsandeleva?ons.
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Insmallgroups(4or5)comeupwithascenarioandconductaPre-Mortemandanswerthefollowingques?ons.Questions 1. What can fail/go wrong? (Prioritize based on consequence and frequency.) 2. What caused the failure (there may be more than one cause for each
failure)? Cycle through questions 3-5 for each failure point. 3. What would an expert do that a novice would not do (ask if needed)? 4. How do we get reliable and timely feedback? What cues need to be
attended to? 5. What is the real (core) skill that needs to be developed/learned? How do
we acquire that skill.
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Pre-Mortems Describe&Prep(i.e.,whatisthesitua?on…theplanhasfailed).1. Describewhatcanfail/gowrong.• Priori?zebasedonconsequence&frequency.
2. Whatcausedeachfailure(possiblemorethanonecause)?• LackoforPoor:
• Technical,Communica?on,Intra/InterPersonalSkills,etc.
• Uncertainty• Missing/TooMuchInforma?on• Distrust/InconsistentInforma?on• Irrelevant/TooComplex
Cyclethrough3-5foreachfailurepoint.3. Whatwouldanexpertdothata
novicewouldnotdo(ask)?4. Howdowegetreliableand
?melyfeedback?• Whatcuesneedtobeadendedto.
5. Whatisthereal(core)skillthatneedstobedeveloped/learned?• Howdoweacquirethatskill?
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Building Intui+on Designing and Implemen+ng a Deliberate Training Program
• ConductPre-Mortems(beforeincidentreviews)• ConductPost-Mortems(aHerincidentreviews)• Don’tforgetthegood!
• Designandconductrealis?cDecision-MakingExercises(DMX)• Createstress–with?melimitsand/orpop-inon-the-flyDMXs
• JournalyourdecisionsinthefieldtocomparetoPre-Mortems• Prac?ceDecision-MakinginContext(oratclosetoitaspossible)
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Frequency/Consequence Con+nuum
HighFrequency
HighConsequence
LowFrequency
HighConsequence
HighFrequency
LowConsequence
LowFrequencyLow
Consequence
Frequency
Conseq
uence
Thevastmajorityofdecisionshavediscre?onary?me-to-task.Wehave?metothink!
Theyarenot?mecompe??vewithregardtolife,limb,oreyesight.
Asmallminorityarenon-discre?onary?me-to-task.Wedonothave?metothink!
Theyare?mecompe??vewithregardtolife,limb,oreyesight.
FrequencyandConsequencearerela?vetoyourrisktolerance.
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How we make decisions • System1(default)2(LimbicSystem)• Fastandautomated• Thereislidleornoeffortorsenseofcontrol• Cogni?velyfrugal• Decisionscometomindwithoutawarenessofthecuesthatevokeanobviousevalua?onoftheirstrength
• PadernRecogni?on• Recogni?onPrimedDecision-Making2
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How we make decisions • System2(overload/fallback)1(PrefrontalCortex/CentralExecu?ve)
• Slowerandmorecontrolled• Moreeffornulandthereisawithasenseofcontrol• Cogni?velyexpensive• Decisionscometomindwithanawarenessofcuesthatevokeanobviousevalua?onoftheirstrength
• Systems&Checklists3
• DomainSpecificExper?se4• Expertdecision-maker'sSystem1closertoSystem2
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Dual-Process Model
of Judgment
and Decision-Making5
Stressors(hungry, sleep, etc)
Stressors(hungry, sleep, etc)
Decision Maker’sExpertise(DME)
Decision Maker’sExpertise(DME) Attention
(Situational Awareness)
Attention(Situational Awareness)
Decision PointRecognition
Decision PointRecognition
Act on Course of Action (COA)
Act on Course of Action (COA)
NoSystem 1
YesSystem 2
ReceiveFeedback
(High v Low Validity)(Internal &/or External)
ReceiveFeedback
(High v Low Validity)(Internal &/or External)
Lack of Situational Awareness (SA)
&Events Act on
Decision Maker
Lack of Situational Awareness (SA)
&Events Act on
Decision Maker
No
Decision Complexity(simple/complex)
Heuristics & BiasesDecision Consequences
(low to high)
Decision Complexity(simple/complex)
Heuristics & BiasesDecision Consequences
(low to high)
Identify PossibleCOA
Identify PossibleCOA
Act onCOA
Act onCOA
ReceiveFeedback
(High or Low Validity) (Internal &/or External)
ReceiveFeedback
(High or Low Validity) (Internal &/or External)
RecognizeHeuristics
AndBiases
RecognizeHeuristics
AndBiases
Did COAWork
Did COAWork
Exit & Move to next DP
Process Task
Exit & Move to next DP
Process TaskYES
Did COAWork
Did COAWork
Exit & Move to next DP
Process Task
Exit & Move to next DP
Process TaskYES
No
COAOutcomePrediction
(mental simulation)
COAOutcomePrediction
(mental simulation)
No
Has the Situation Changed?
Has the Situation Changed?
No
Yes
EnvironmentalFactors
(weather, visibility,etc.)
EnvironmentalFactors
(weather, visibility,etc.)
Yes/No
Yes/No
Probably Does Not Work
ChooseCOA
ChooseCOA
Probably Works
Yes
No –!Overload / Incongruent Cues
State Traits of DMEGeneral Self-Efficacy
Impulse Sensation SeekingAttentional ControlEmotion Regulation
(Reappraisal/Suppression)Tolerance of Ambiguity
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Post-Mortem Don’tforgettopost-morgentheGOOD!• Asbestyoucan,reconstructthe?melineofeventsanddecisionpoints.Some?mesdiagrams/photoshelp.
Cyclethroughthefollowingques?onsforeachdecision:1. Whywasthisdifficult?2. Howwasthesitua?oninterpreted.3. Inhindsight,whatwerethered-flags,cuesandpadernsthatyoushould
haveseen(proximalanddistal)?4. Whywasthecourseofac?ontaken?5. Whatcouldhavebeendonedifferently?6. Whattraining/educa?onneedstooccurtobecomebeder?
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Post-Mortem:Ms.KuoandherdaughterwerepassengersinaraHthatwaspartofagroupthatincludedotherraHsandboats.AmongtheotherpassengersinMs.Kuo’sraHwasaguidewhowasanemployeeoftheraHcompany.Duringthetrip,apar?cipantfelloutofakayakandMs.Kuo’sraHwasdirectedtotheriverbankbytheguide,whogotoutwithathrowrope.Theguidetossedoneendoftherope,thepar?cipantswamtowardtheraHandgrabbedit,whichcausedanotherpassengerintheraHtofallintothewater.Atthispointtheguidethrewtheen?reropeintoMs.Kuo’sraH.Oneendoftheropebecamecaughtunderthewater,andtheotherendwrappedaroundMs.Kuo’slowerrightlegandbegancrushingit.Ms.Kuoshoutedtotheguidetocuttheropewithaknifetofreeherleg,buttheguiderepliedthathedidnothaveaknife.Heshoutedtotheseniorguideandtheotherguidestobringhimaknife,butnoonehadone.AtthispointtheguideinMs.Kuo’sraHfrozeanddidnothing.Ms.Kuoaskedhimtojumpintotherivertotryandfreetherope.HewasabletocreateenoughslackontheropethatitcouldberemovedfromMs.Kuo’sleg.EventuallytheguideswereabletomoveMs.Kuotoshorewhereshewasinexcrucia?ngpainandsufferingfromrespiratoryandcirculatoryproblems.Theguidesdidnothavecommunica?onequipmentwiththemsotheycouldnotcontactoutsidesourcesforhelp.Oneoftheguidesrantoaroadtolocateatelephoneandcallforhelp.AHerthreehours,Ms.Kuowastransportedtoahospital.Onceathome,Ms.Kuowasseenbyavascularsurgeonandotherphysicians,whodiagnosedastrangula?oninjurytoherlowerrightleg.Inaddi?on,herphysiciansreferredherforpsychologicaltreatment.(Adarian,A.,2012,p.52)
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Incident:
Ms.KuoandherdaughterwerepassengersinaraHthatwaspartofagroupthatincludedotherraHsandboats.AmongtheotherpassengersinMs.Kuo’sraHwasaguidewhowasanemployeeoftheraHcompany.Duringthetrip,apar?cipantfelloutofakayakandMs.Kuo’sraHwasdirectedtotheriverbankbytheguide,whogotoutwithathrowrope.Theguidetossedoneendoftherope,thepar?cipantswamtowardtheraHandgrabbedit,whichcausedanotherpassengerintheraHtofallintothewater.Atthispointtheguidethrewtheen?reropeintoMs.Kuo’sraH.
Oneendoftheropebecamecaughtunderthewater,andtheotherendwrappedaroundMs.Kuo’slowerrightlegandbegancrushingit.Ms.Kuoshoutedtotheguidetocuttheropewithaknifetofreeherleg,buttheguiderepliedthathedidnothaveaknife.Heshoutedtotheseniorguideandtheotherguidestobringhimaknife,butnoonehadone.
AtthispointtheguideinMs.Kuo’sraHfrozeanddidnothing.Ms.Kuoaskedhimtojumpintotherivertotryandfreetherope.HewasabletocreateenoughslackontheropethatitcouldberemovedfromMs.Kuo’sleg.
EventuallytheguideswereabletomoveMs.Kuotoshorewhereshewasinexcrucia?ngpainandsufferingfromrespiratoryandcirculatoryproblems.Theguidesdidnothavecommunica?onequipmentwiththemsotheycouldnotcontactoutsidesourcesforhelp.Oneoftheguidesrantoaroadtolocateatelephoneandcallforhelp.AHerthreehours,Ms.Kuowastransportedtoahospital.
Onceathome,Ms.Kuowasseenbyavascularsurgeonandotherphysicians,whodiagnosedastrangula?oninjurytoherlowerrightleg.Inaddi?on,herphysiciansreferredherforpsychologicaltreatment.(Adarian,A.,2012,p.52)
Questions Asbestyoucan,reconstructthe?melineofeventsanddecisionpoints.Whywasthisdifficult?Howwasthissitua?oninterpreted?Inhindsight,whatwerethered-flags,cuesandpadernsthatyoushouldhaveseen(proximalanddistal)?Whywasthecourseofac?ontaken?Whatcouldhavebeendonedifferently?Whattraining/educa?onneedstooccurtobecomebeder?
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Psychological State Traits that Effect Decision-Making11
• GeneralizedSelf-Efficacy6(higherinexperts)
• AGen1onalControl&Vigilance7(higherinexperts)
• Emo1onalRegula1on8(higherinexperts)• Reappraisal–higherinexperts• Suppression–lowerinexperts
• ToleranceforAmbiguity9(higherwithexperts)
• Impulsivity10(lowerinexperts,expertsaveragetogeneralpopula?on)
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Decision-Making Exercise (DMX) Rules• Thereisnoabsoluterightanswer…itisabouttheprocess.• Simplescenario,thustherewillincompleteinforma?onthatwillrequireyoutomakeassump?ons.• Solvetheproblemdonotcri?quetheproblem.
• Imposed?melimit• 5-10minfordecision&~30mintotal
• Youmustcommunicateyourdecisionorallytothegroup.• Bespecificastowho,what,how(maybe),when,where,why(maybe);nogeneraliza?onsorhypothe?cals.
• Play• Solitaire,GrouporTwo-Sided
Explainyourdecision-makingprocess• Whyyoumadethedecisionyoumade?• Whatwereyourop?ons?• Whatwerethefactors/considera?onsforemostonyourmind?• Whatassump?ons,ifany,didyoumakeaboutthesitua?on?• Whatwouldyouhavelikedtohaveknown…ornotknown?• Onwhatprinciples,concepts,valueswasyourplanbased?
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Background:Youareleadingagroupoffivebackpackers(BillandJoan,BeccaandMad,andJim)intheBeartoothMountainsonthree-daytripupBlackCanyonofftheLakeForkTrail.YourgoalistocampthefirstnightattheheadwaterofBlackCanyonLakethencutcrosscountrymakingthepasstotheeastofMountRearguardandspendthenextnightatMoonLakethenhikeHellroaringPlateautothehightrailheadwhereyouhaveafriendscheduledtopickyouuptheaHernoonofthethirdday.BillandJoan,amarriedcouple,arefitbuthavenotbackpackedinseveralyears.TheyeachhavecurrentFirstAid/CPRtraining.BeccaandMadareengaged,fitandhavebackpackedquiteabitinthesoutherndesertofUtahbutneverinthemountainsofMontana.BeccatookawildernessfirstaidclassfouryearsagoandMadhashadnomedicaltraining.MadalsohasTypeIIDiabetes.Jimisveryfitbutthisishisfirstbackpackingtripandheseemedverynervouswhenthegroupencounteredasnakeonthetrailyesterday.Youhavethefirstaidkitandallhavebearsprayandpriortodepar?ngyoucheckedforunderstandingonwhattodoiftheyencounterabear.Youcurrentlyhavenocellcoverageandarenotcarryingasat-phone.Itismid-morningtheseconddayandyouareheadinguptothepassfromBlackCanyonLake.Beccaspotsagrizzlybearabout100yardsupslopefromthegrouptothesoutheast.Asyoustarttosimultaneouslytellthegroupwhattodoandlookforanycubs.Withoutanyexplana?onJimstartsmovingfast(running)backtowardthelakeandthenyouspotit…acub.Jimdoesnotrealizethatheisrunningrighttowardit.Thentheworsthappens,thesowtakesoffaHerJim.Whatdoyoudonow?
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Thereisnosinglecorrectanswer;however,theremaybeawrongorlessthandesirableanswer.
Title:BearAdack
Background:Youareleadingagroupoffivebackpackers(BillandJoan,BeccaandMad,andJim)intheBeartoothMountainsonthree-daytripupBlackCanyonofftheLakeForkTrail.YourgoalistocampthefirstnightattheheadwaterofBlackCanyonLakethencutcrosscountrymakingthepasstotheeastofMountRearguardandspendthenextnightatMoonLakethenhikeHellroaringPlateautothehightrailheadwhereyouhaveafriendscheduledtopickyouuptheaHernoonofthethirdday.
BillandJoan,amarriedcouple,arefitbuthavenotbackpackedinseveralyears.TheyeachhavecurrentFirstAid/CPRtraining.BeccaandMadareengaged,fitandhavebackpackedquiteabitinthesoutherndesertofUtahbutneverinthemountainsofMontana.BeccatookawildernessfirstaidclassfouryearsagoandMadhashadnomedicaltraining.MadalsohasTypeIIDiabetes.Jimisveryfitbutthisishisfirstbackpackingtripandheseemedverynervouswhenthegroupencounteredasnakeonthetrailyesterday.Youhavethefirstaidkitandallhavebearsprayandpriortodepar?ngyoucheckedforunderstandingonwhattodoiftheyencounterabear.Youcurrentlyhavenocellcoverageandarenotcarryingasat-phone.
Itismid-morningtheseconddayandyouareheadinguptothepassfromBlackCanyonLake.Beccaspotsagrizzlybearabout100yardsupslopefromthegrouptothesoutheast.Asyoustarttosimultaneouslytellthegroupwhattodoandlookforanycubs.Withoutanyexplana?onJimstartsmovingfast(running)backtowardthelakeandthenyouspotit…acub.Jimdoesnotrealizethatheisrunningrighttowardit.Thentheworsthappens,thesowtakesoffaHerJim.Whatdoyoudonow?
Requirement:Within5minutes:Writedownwhatyoutellyourgroupmemberstodo?Bespecificastowho,what,how(maybe),when,where,why(maybe);nogeneraliza?onsorhypothe?cals.
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Decision-Making Exercise (DMX) Explainyourdecision-makingprocess• Whyyoumadethedecisionyoumade?• Whatwereyourop?ons?• Whatwerethefactors/considera?onsforemostonyourmind?• Whatassump?ons,ifany,didyoumakeaboutthesitua?on?• Whatwouldyouhavelikedtohaveknown…ornotknown?• Onwhatprinciples,concepts,valueswasyourplanbased?
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Meaningful Experience leads to beQer intui+on
TheParadoxofExperience1• Howdowegetmeaningfulrealworldexperiences?• Some?mesweonlygetoneshotattheexperience.
Iden?fyandunderstand
requirementsofyourjob.
DeliberatePrac?cethedifficultdecisions
incontext.
DeliberateReviewofDecision-MakingExperiences
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Ac+on Steps 1. Bedeliberateaboutyourprocess,wecangainexperience,toagreaterorlessor
degree,vicariously.2. IncorporatePre-Mortems,Post-Mortems,andDMXsintoyourregularstaff
training.3. Ifyouhavetheability…slowdown…beinten?onalinyourdecision!• Youwillbeabletoiden?fylowfrequency,highconsequence,non-discre?onary?me-to-taskeventsandconductapre-mortemthatwillhelpyourstaffreducerisk.
• Youwillbeabletodesignandconductarealis?cdecision-makingexercisesthatwillhelpyouandyourstaffgainsimulatedexperiencesoflowfrequencyhighconsequenceevents.
• Youandyourstaffwillbeabletoconductacri?calaHerreviewofanincident,ornearmiss,designedtogivedetailedfeedbackandimprovethedecision-makingprocessandqualityoflowfrequency,highconsequence,non-discre?onary?me-to-taskevents.
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Factors and Ergonomics Society 30th Annual Meeting, Norwood, NJ. 5. Culp, C. A. (2016). Judgment and decision-making in outdoor adventure leadership: A dual-process model. Journal of Outdoor
Recreation, Education and Leadership, 8(1). doi:http://dx.doi.org/10.18666/JOREL-2016-V8-I1-7380 6. Schwarzer, R., & Jerusalem, M. (1995). Generalized self-efficacy scale. Measures in health psychology: A user's portfolio. Causal
and control beliefs, 35-37. 7. Derryberry, D., & Reed, M. A. (2002). Anxiety-related attentional biases and their regulation by attentional control. Journal of
Abnormal Psychology, 111(2), 225. 8. Gross, J. J., & John, O. P. (2003). Individual Differences in Two Emotion Regulation Processes: Implications for Affect,
Relationships, and Well-Being. Journal of Personality & Social Psychology, 85(2), 348-362. doi:10.1037/0022-3514.85.2.348 9. Budner, S. (1962). Intolerance of ambiguity as a personality variable. Journal of Personality, 30(1), 29. doi:
10.1111/1467-6494.ep8933446Zuckerman, M. (2007). Sensation seeking and risky behavior. Washington, D.C., USA: American Psychological Association.
10. Zuckerman, M. (2007). Sensation seeking and risky behavior. Washington, D.C., USA: American Psychological Association.
11. Culp (working)
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Building Intui+on
ClintonA.Culp,Ph.D.Major,USMC(Ret)[email protected]
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