CCA/UNDAFPreliminary Analysis
Baghdad June 2009
CCA/UNDAF – Preliminary Analysis
COSIT/KRSO – United Nations
• Achievements of transition
• Overarching trends
• Development challenges
• Key areas of concern• Human rights, justice and security
• Economic development and inclusive growth
• Human development
• Governance
• Development gaps
• Top priorities
• Next steps
Summary
CCA/UNDAF – Preliminary Analysis
COSIT/KRSO – United Nations
Country in transition: security & political improvement
• Security incidents fell by 90% Aug 2007 - Apr 2009; Casualties down • People’s perception of security improved. 80% of Iraqis report improvement;• The political process consolidates: Regained sovereignty; successful elections in
2009; people’s trust in the state increasing
43
62
84
39
49
61
Aug2007
Sept Oct Nov Dec Jan2008
Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sept Oct Nov Dec Jan2009
Feb Mar Apr May
Total Incidents
Casualties
Positive Security perception (%)
Confidence in National Government (%)
0
1,000
2,000
3,000
4,000
5,000
6,000
No d
eath
s /
inci
den
ts
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
100
perc
en
tag
e
Sou
rce:
Sec
urity
: U
NA
MI-
SS
I, R
etur
ns:
UN
HC
R (
Apr
il 20
09)
CCA/UNDAF – Preliminary Analysis
COSIT/KRSO – United Nations
Country in transition: reintegration
• Return of displaced population increased; no major new displacement.
• Between 60-80% of IDPs would like to return to their homes (IOM, HCR)
Security Incidents
Refugee returns
IDP returns
Sou
rce:
Sec
urity
: U
NA
MI-
SS
I, R
etur
ns:
UN
HC
R (
Apr
il 20
09)
MonthlyAverage2007
MonthlyAverageS1 2008
Jul-08 Aug-08 Sep-08 Oct-08 Nov-08 Dec-08 Jan-09 Feb-09 Mar-09 Apr0
1,000
2,000
3,000
4,000
5,000
6,000
7,000
8,000
No. of
fam
ilies
Secu
rity
In
cid
en
ts
0
10000
30000
50000
2007 2008
Yearly totals
Yearly totals
CCA/UNDAF – Preliminary Analysis
COSIT/KRSO – United Nations
Country in transition: socio-economic improvements
1. Improved macro-economic stability
• Economic growth
• Contained inflation2. Human development indicators have shown
improvement
• Improved food securityo Food insecurity down from 15 to 3% (WFP/COSIT 05, 07) o Prevalence of wasting in children U5 down since 1990s (9% in 05
to 4.7% in 07)
• Improved schoolingo Overall increase in enrolment o Gap between male & female education achievements narrowedo Primary school enrolment continues to climb (87% in 07-8, MOE)
and now passed 5m pupils.
• Antenatal care is relatively high 87% of pregnancies / ~80% of births are attended by skilled personnel (IFHS)
CCA/UNDAF – Preliminary Analysis
COSIT/KRSO – United Nations
Country in transition
However, the situation remains fragile and reversible
CCA/UNDAF – Preliminary Analysis
COSIT/KRSO – United Nations
Overarching trends
• Bigger, fast growing and younger population: 31 million, 43% under 15 yrs
• Iraq’s natural resources & ecological support system in decline
• Higher dependency on highly unstable international oil market
• Growth in public sector:
• public sector jobs created instead of developing private sector;
• focus on subsidies at the expense of service delivery
CCA/UNDAF – Preliminary Analysis
COSIT/KRSO – United Nations
Key challenges to Iraq’s transition
• Consolidate peace o Ensure political participation & strengthen state-citizen relationshipo Address limitations to women’s participation in public life
• Sustain improvement in securityo Strengthen rule of law o ensure protection of basic rights
• Strengthen economic performance o improve management of resources, o stimulate private sector, generate economic opportunities,
particularly for women & young people
• Enable env’t for return and reintegration of IDPs and refugees
• Improve access to and quality of basic services, esp. for the most vulnerable.
• Address regional disparities & improve rural standard of living.
CCA/UNDAF – Preliminary Analysis
COSIT/KRSO – United Nations
Key areas for Iraq’s future development
1. Human rights, security and justice
2. Economic development
3. Human development
4. Governance
CCA/UNDAF – Preliminary Analysis
COSIT/KRSO – United Nations
CCA/UNDAF – Preliminary Analysis
COSIT/KRSO – United Nations
1. Human Rights, Security & Justice
• Human rights a major concern. Women particularly at risk.
• Civilian casualties still high and security institutions(esp. police) need strengthening
Key message: Continued improvements in human rights, security and justice are needed for national reconciliation, peace, and development
CCA/UNDAF – Preliminary Analysis
COSIT/KRSO – United Nations
Landmines and UXOs: Iraq’s heavily contaminated
More than 3000 suspected mined areas identified by UN in the 3 Northern Govts.
Large border areas with landmine and UXO contamination
Large areas with Sub-munitions, UXO and Abandon munitions contamination
N
CCA/UNDAF – Preliminary Analysis
COSIT/KRSO – United Nations
CCA/UNDAF – Preliminary Analysis
COSIT/KRSO – United Nations
2. Economy Dev’t & Inclusive Growth
• Economic performance affected by dominant public sector (44% full-time employment), weak private sector, underperforming & under-skilled labour force.
• Cultural Resources underdeveloped despite high potential (e.g. Tourism sector – archeological and heritage sites)
• Young people & women left out (25% of men aged 20-24 yrs unemployed and 18% of women participate in Labour Force)
• 23% of the population under the poverty line, high regional disparities, rural population twice as poor (IHSES).
CCA/UNDAF – Preliminary Analysis
COSIT/KRSO – United Nations
Youth
• Unemployment Rate (%) by Age Groups (Concentration among young)
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
45
15-19 20- 24 25- 29 30- 34 35- 39 40- 44 45- 49 50- 54 55- 59 60- 64 65 and more
2006 unemployment rate
2008 unemployment rate
CCA/UNDAF – Preliminary Analysis
COSIT/KRSO – United Nations
Economically Inactive(25% 15-64yr)
Unemployed(14% of LF)
Part Time(21% of LF)
Full Time(65% of LF)
Gender
Men(age 15-64yr)
Women(age 15-64yr)
Economically Inactive(82% 15-64yr)
Unemployed(19% of LF)
Part Time(45% of LF)
Full Time(36% of LF)
CCA/UNDAF – Preliminary Analysis
COSIT/KRSO – United Nations
Economic Dev’t: Energy, Rural dev’t & Environment
• Electricity unreliable (daily average of public supply 7.9 hrs; 22% of population rely on public network - IHSES)
• Weak linkages between on and off-farm incomes in the rural economy due to lack of value chains (e.g. weak, small agro-industry).
• Weak management of natural resources and pressure on natural environment strain economic development, esp. rural, including agriculture.
CCA/UNDAF – Preliminary Analysis
COSIT/KRSO – United Nations
Environment and rural development
Areas affected by drought in both 2008 and 2009
Affected CropLand / Total_CropLand
46% - 56%
31% - 45%
26% - 30%
6% - 25%
4% - 5%
39% of all cropland sufferedfrom drought in both 08-09
Sourc
e:
FA
O, IA
U (
20
09
)
CCA/UNDAF – Preliminary Analysis
COSIT/KRSO – United Nations
Key message
Despite improved macro-economic stability, Iraq’s economy remains oil dependent, with a weak private sector and job market and with few opportunities for the poor
CCA/UNDAF – Preliminary Analysis
COSIT/KRSO – United Nations
CCA/UNDAF – Preliminary Analysis
COSIT/KRSO – United Nations
Human Development: Indices 2008
National Report onThe Status of Human Development 2008:
1. HDI: 0.6232. GDI: 0.5843. HPI: 18.8004. GEM: 0.696
CCA/UNDAF – Preliminary Analysis
COSIT/KRSO – United Nations
3. Human Development: Education
• Iraq’s capacity to nurture the skills of next generation is weak
• High gender disparities, e.g. illiteracy esp. among rural women (55% rural women aged 15-24 illiterate, MICS3)
• 40% of students go from primary to secondary school (MOE).
• Poor quality and overcrowding: one in three schools operating double shift (MOE)
• 28% of 17 yr-olds sat final high school exams (MOE 2007)
• 40% pass rate in South and Centre
CCA/UNDAF – Preliminary Analysis
COSIT/KRSO – United Nations
Human development: Health
• Iraq ‘s health status has waned due to consecutive wars, violence and inadequate public/reproductive health strategies.
• Life expectancy at birth = 65yr (1987) / 58yr (2006)
• Infant mortality rate = 30 per 1,000 live births (1984-89) / 35 per 1,000 (2006)
• Poor mental health, particularly among women (Any mental disorder: Men (8.8%) / Women (13.5%. IMHS)
• Poor measles immunisation: 65% coverage (MICS3)
• Other sectors, such as HIV, also have key issues.
CCA/UNDAF – Preliminary Analysis
COSIT/KRSO – United Nations
Human development: Water & sanitation
• 82% HHs outside Baghdad and KRG have no waste collection (IHSES)
• Lack of access to safe and reliable water and sanitation
• One in 7 children have diahorrea at any one time (MICS3)
CCA/UNDAF – Preliminary Analysis
COSIT/KRSO – United Nations
Essential Services: the public water network
• Network infrastructure exists but is in a state of disrepair;
44 %Suffer from less than
One interruption a week
19 %Are not connected to the
general water network
24 %Suffer from more than one interruption a day
13 %Suffer from more than one interruption a week
Sourc
e:
Iraq
House
hold
Soci
o-E
conom
ic S
urv
ey (
20
07
) –
CO
SIT
/Worl
d B
ank
CCA/UNDAF – Preliminary Analysis
COSIT/KRSO – United Nations
Human development: social protection
• Social protection exists but not protecting the most vulnerable• 45% of jobs covered by social insurance;
• 1 in 9 children 5-14 years work, higher in rural areas, and these children are less likely to participate in school - MICS3
• PDS provides great proportion of food consumed and improves food security amongst the poorest
• prevalence of hunger low at 7%
• But, irregularity leaves poor highly vulnerable (Diyala 51% hunger in 2007 when PDS not delivered due to violence).
CCA/UNDAF – Preliminary Analysis
COSIT/KRSO – United Nations
Human development: housing and shelter
4 key issues to poor housing & growing demand:
1. Population growth rates2. Levels of overcrowding; 3. Poor housing conditions and access to basic services; 4. Ongoing issues of internally displaced persons;
CCA/UNDAF – Preliminary Analysis
COSIT/KRSO – United Nations
Key message: human development
Access to quality services is a key priority and requires strong further improvement; it is central for peace and to re-build the legitimacy of the government
CCA/UNDAF – Preliminary Analysis
COSIT/KRSO – United Nations
CCA/UNDAF – Preliminary Analysis
COSIT/KRSO – United Nations
4. Governance
• Perception of state legitimacy, accountability, and effectiveness improving, but still weak, partly because of slow improvement with services and economic opportunities
• Public sector reform urgent but needs to be gradual to avoid destabilisation given high dependence on state jobs & subsidies.
• Budget allocations is key issue
• Weak independent media, environmental and cultural resource management needs urgent attention.
CCA/UNDAF – Preliminary Analysis
COSIT/KRSO – United Nations
Budget Allocation: Investment Gap
2008 Actual expenditure shares (% of total budget)
0
10.3
6.3
0.1 0.1
6.35.2
0 0.2 0.1 0.6
Total (Op.&Inv.) Expenditures Projects Investment
0 %
5 %
10 %
15 %
20 %
25 %
30 %
35 %
PublicActivity
Other Kurdistan Interior Defence Electricity Oil Justice Agriculture Health Education
Subsidies.Pensions,War rep
Local Administration
Security Energy Investment Gap
CCA/UNDAF – Preliminary Analysis
COSIT/KRSO – United Nations
Service Delivery Perceptions
0 %
10 %
20 %
30 %
40 %
50 %
60 %
70 %
80 %
90 %
100 %
Fuel Electricity Water Medical Care Local Schools
Aug 2007
Mar 2009 Sou
rce:
AB
C P
olls
(A
ug 2
007
/ M
ar 2
009)
• Fuel and Electricity seen improvement in people’s perception due to private and public investment
• Service delivery on water, health and education less improvement (reflecting lack of investment)
CCA/UNDAF – Preliminary Analysis
COSIT/KRSO – United Nations
Key message
Improving governance, management of public resources, capacity to deliver services and generating public debate are critical to consolidate peace.
CCA/UNDAF – Preliminary Analysis
COSIT/KRSO – United Nations
Development Gaps
1. Human capacity
2. Strategy to address poverty
3. Governance capacity
CCA/UNDAF – Preliminary Analysis
COSIT/KRSO – United Nations
Top priorities
• Prioritise & sequence interventions with high transformative, stabilisation, and peace dividend potential
• Address regional and governorate disparities
• Address poverty and unemployment through rural development
• Urgent need to focus on women, youth and children
CCA/UNDAF – Preliminary Analysis
COSIT/KRSO – United Nations
Next Steps
1. Identification of Thematic Areas and Working Groups
2.Amman Workshop (incl. training on causal analysis)
3.Causal Analysis conducted by Thematic Working Groups culminating on Thematic analysis summarizing their results
4.Drafting of CCA