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Tracy Needham and Andy Golub
Overview: Our latest survey shows smartphone demand sinking to its lowest level of the past nine
years. Within this weakened market there is some positive news for Samsung as it experiences an
increase coinciding with its Galaxy S8 launch. While demand for Apple is down, anticipation of its
next-gen release later this year is likely a key factor.
The March 14-31 survey of 4,075 primarily North American consumers from 451 Research’s Leading
Indicator panel looked at trends in the smartphone market among current owners and planned
buyers, including customer satisfaction and OS preferences.
Another Drop in Planned Smartphone Buying
Planned smartphone buying is down for the second consecutive survey. A total of 8.3% of
respondents plan on buying a smartphone in the next 90 days – 2.7 points lower than the previous
survey in December.
Although we see a decline in purchase intentions each March, this is the lowest reading in nine years.
Recent VoCUL surveys have pointed to a lengthening smartphone upgrade cycle, and the lack of
revolutionary new features are also contributing to the low buying levels.
Consumer Smartphones: 90 Day Outlook May 2017
Smartphone Demand Sinks to 9 Year Low
451 Research | VoCUL: Smartphone Buying: 90 Day Outlook
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Next 90 Days: Smartphone Manufacturer Demand
Despite the weakened buying environment, Samsung is seeing a 7 point increase since the previous
survey, with 22% of planned buyers saying they’ll purchase a Samsung smartphone in the next 90
days.
Samsung is up a total of 8 points over the past two surveys as it continues to recover from the Note 7
recall last September.
In a further positive, this latest survey was nearly complete before Samsung's announcement of its
Galaxy S8 release, so the impact of the new model is not fully reflected in these next 90-day buying
plan findings. In contrast, our previous two March surveys were conducted after Samsung announced
their next-gen Galaxy S models.
Apple. Apple remains the preferred manufacturer among planned smartphone buyers, with 38%
saying they’ll purchase an iPhone over the next 90 days. This is a notable 16 points lower than
previously, and the combined 27 point drop since September is steeper than what we typically see
two quarters after a new iPhone release.
451 Research | VoCUL: Smartphone Buying: 90 Day Outlook
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That said, consumers are likely waiting for Apple’s next-gen releases expected in September (i.e., 7s,
7s Plus). There is also speculation that Apple will release a third iPhone with major upgrades to mark
the 10 year anniversary of the iPhone. This is adding to the anticipation of the new iPhone releases –
with possible features including a glass body, 5.8” edge-to-edge OLED display and wireless charging.
Google. Google is still relatively new to the device market with its Pixel smartphone. A total of 5% of
planned smartphone buyers say they’ll purchase a Pixel or the larger-screen Pixel XL – down 1 point
from December.
Both LG (4%) and Motorola (3%) are seeing upticks, but remain stuck in the low single digits.
Customer Satisfaction
Apple also leads in terms of satisfaction, with 62% of iPhone owners saying they’re Very Satisfied with
their smartphone. Samsung (47%) is tied with Motorola (47%), followed by LG (33%).
A total of 80% of current Apple owners who plan on buying a new smartphone in the next 90 days say
it will be another iPhone – still very strong though 4 points lower than a year ago.
Samsung is also seeing a decline in repeat customers from a year ago, with 52% of current Samsung
owners who plan on purchasing a smartphone saying they’ll get another Samsung. But this is up from
December, which mirrors a trend we’ve seen with past Samsung release cycles.
Planned Smartphone Buyers –
Next 90 Days
Current
Survey
Mar ‘17
Previous
Survey
Dec ‘16
Previous
Survey
Sep ‘16
Previous
Survey
Jun ‘16
Previous
Survey
Mar ‘16
Previous
Survey
Dec ‘15
Current iPhone Owners
who plan to buy
an Apple iPhone
80% 91% 95% 87% 84% 87%
Current Samsung Owners
who plan to buy
a Samsung smartphone
52% 48% 49% 68% 60% 46%
451 Research | VoCUL: Smartphone Buying: 90 Day Outlook
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©COPYRIGHT 2017 451 RESEARCH, ALL RIGHTS RESERVED.
4
Mobile Operating Systems: iOS vs. Android
There is a significant shift in preferred OS. Google’s Android (47%; up 12 points) has moved ahead of
iOS (38%; down 14 points) among planned smartphone buyers over the next 90 days. This is not
surprising given buying intentions for Samsung smartphones has increased, while demand for
iPhones is experiencing a decline this quarter.
Demand for Google’s Pixel smartphone is also contributing to the shift towards Android, as are
upticks for LG and Motorola.
While we usually see a March increase for Android, this represents an all-time high and the first time
Android has been the preferred OS among next 90 day buyers in seven years.
Other Smartphone Trends
Important Features. Among planned smartphone buyers, Long Battery Life (84%) tops the list of
features which influence their purchase decision. Camera Quality (62%), Operating System (59%) and
Display Resolution (51%) are also important considerations.
Demand for Big Screens. More than half (54%; up 3 points) say they’re most interested in buying a 5-
5.9 inch screen, making it the most in-demand size. Moreover, the preference for this size has been
trending upward over the past four surveys.
451 Research | VoCUL: Smartphone Buying: 90 Day Outlook
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Another 18% say they would most prefer a 6 inch screen or larger – unchanged.
Where Consumers Purchased Their Smartphones. A total of 54% say they bought their smartphone
from their Wireless Service Provider. Another 12% purchased Directly from the Manufacturer.
Bottom Line
Our latest results show planned smartphone buying continues to struggle and is now at its lowest
level in nine years.
Within this environment, Samsung shows an increase in demand for the second consecutive survey –
which is good news considering the survey was conducted before the announcement of the new
Galaxy S8 model and the Note 7 recall was only six months ago.
Apple remains the leader among planned buyers, but is showing a notable decline. This is a steeper
drop than normally seen two quarters after a new iPhone release, but is likely due to consumers
waiting for Apple’s upcoming new launches expected in September. The hype surrounding the 10th
anniversary of the iPhone is adding to the typical new model release rumors. We’ll be keeping a close
eye on demand for the new iPhone models in our next survey.
In terms of preferred operating systems, we’re seeing a shift with Android overtaking iOS for next 90
day demand. This is certainly related to Samsung demand trending upward vs. Apple declining.
Google’s relatively new Pixel smartphone is also taking a share of the market, and although demand
is at lower levels for LG and Motorola, both are seeing increases.
451 Research | VoCUL: Smartphone Buying: 90 Day Outlook
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6
Summary of Key Findings
Jump in Samsung Demand
� Among respondents
planning to buy a
smartphone in next 90
days, Samsung (22%) is
seeing a 7 point upswing
� Although not as strong as a
year ago, it’s better than
the increase two years ago
during S6/S6 Edge launch
� This survey was nearly
complete when Samsung
announced latest Galaxy
releases
Demand for Apple
� Apple (38%) remains the
leader in planned buying,
but is down 16 points from
previously and a combined
27 points since Sep
� Although steeper than the
drop we normally see,
planned buyers are likely
waiting for new releases
Overall Smartphone
Demand at 9 year Low
� Only 8.3% of respondents
plan on buying a
smartphone in next 90 days
� Lowest reading in nine
years
Demand for Other
Manufacturers
� Google Pixel (5%; down 1
point)
� LG (4%; up 2 points)
� Motorola (3%; up 1 point)
Preferred OS Next 90 Days
– Android Takes Lead
� Android OS (47%; up 12-
pts)
� Apple iOS (38%; down 14-
pts)
Customer Satisfaction
Smartphone Ratings
� Apple (62% Very Satisfied)
� Samsung (47%)
� Motorola (47%)
Brand Loyalty
� 80% of current iPhone
owners buying a new
phone in next 90 days say
it’ll be another iPhone
� 52% of Samsung owners
who plan on buying say
they’ll get another
Samsung
Demand for Big Screens
� 54% of planned buyers say
they’re most interested in a
5-5.9 inch screen
� 18% prefer 6 inch screen or
larger
451 Research | VoCUL: Smartphone Buying: 90 Day Outlook
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7
VoCUL: Research Methodology
This report presents the findings of a March 14 - 31, 2017 survey on consumer smartphone buying. A total of
4,075 consumers from 451 Research’s ChangeWave Leading Indicator panel participated.
451 Research’s ChangeWave Leading Indicator panel is a group of 25,000 accredited business and technology
professionals – as well as early adopter consumers – who work in companies across a range of industries. The
surveys measure the pulse of consumer and business spending via weekly demand-based tracking surveys, and
converts the information into a series of proprietary quantitative and qualitative reports.
The intelligence gathered provides a real-time view of companies, technologies, and key market sectors, along
with an in-depth perspective of the macro economy – well in advance of other available sources.
Access our VoCUL research reports here.
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