DAVID FOUGEREChief Operating Officer
STRATEGY & UNCERTAINTYFor the times they are a-changin'
Freek VermeulenProfessor of Strategy and Entrepreneurship, Chair
Kaplan @ ICEF, November 2019
1. The fog of the future can make it difficult to spot the need for change
2. Industry norms: “The way we do things around here”
3. Shedding old habits: Change as an opportunity
STRATEGY & UNCERTAINTY: For the times they are a-changin'
* Francis Barraud
1990s: 40% market share; 320 stores2002: IPO (LSE) £1 billion2008: 600+ stores worldwide
“I have never heard such rubbish. I accept that supermarkets are a thorn in our side, but not for the serious music buyer, and as for the other two, I don’t ever see them being a real threat; downloadable music is just a fad.”
Steve Knott (HMV Managing Director), 2002
2013 & 2018
Mid-1990s: supermarket discount CDs1998: Amazon delivery2003: Apple iTunes
If you know the word, raise your hand (don’t say it out loud!)
. A N YM
. E N YD
“The development of mobile phones will be similar as in PCs. Even with the Mac, Apple attracted much attention at first, but they have still remained a niche manufacturer. That will be in mobile phones as well.”
“There’s no chance that the iPhone is going to get any significant market share. No chance.”
“It’s kind of one more entrant into an already very busy space with lots of choice for consumers. But in terms of a sort of a sea-change for [our company], I would think that’s overstating it.”
Steve Ballmer (CEO Microsoft)
Jim Balsillie (CEO Blackberry)
Anssi Vanjoki (Chief Strategist, Nokia)
prior beliefs about success performance
Number of stars
Team experience
Prior successes
Box office success
Sorenson & Waguespack: Film distributors
Mental models
Number of stars
Team experience
Prior successes
Box office success
Marketing budget
prior beliefs about success performance
Sorenson & Waguespack: Film distributors
Mental models
1. The fog of the future can make it difficult to spot the need for change
2. Industry norms: “The way we do things around here”
3. Shedding old habits: Change as an opportunity
STRATEGY & UNCERTAINTY: For the times they are a-changin'
Source: Gordon Stephenson
“The cultural transmission of learned behaviour”
“The way we do things around here” Deal & Kennedy, 1982
“Detailing” in the pharmaceutical industry
Drug companies spend about 1/3 of revenue on detailing (about 14 percent on R&D)
In the US, there are 83,000 representatives
but, it takes on average 3 visits for one new prescription
it takes an average of 26 free samples
Source: Mizik and Jacobson, Management Science
1. The fog of the future can make it difficult to spot the need for change
2. Industry norms: “The way we do things around here”
3. Shedding old habits: Change as an opportunity
STRATEGY & UNCERTAINTY: For the times they are a-changin'
Innovation by cessation
replace by analogy
focus
eliminate
STEP 1: Identify a specific set of users
STEP 2: Eliminate from your value proposition what they don’t really care about
STEP 3: Introduce alternative solutions from other domains
Innovation by cessation
1. The fog of the future can make it difficult to spot the need for change
2. Industry norms: “The way we do things around here”
3. Shedding old habits: Change as an opportunity
STRATEGY & UNCERTAINTY: For the times they are a-changin'
low proportion of poor prognosis patients
high proportion of poor prognosis patients
STRATEGY & UNCERTAINTYFor the times they are a-changin'
Freek VermeulenProfessor of Strategy and Entrepreneurship, Chair
Kaplan @ ICEF, November 2019
kaplaninternational.com
THANK YOU
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