Download - David Kotok
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Global Interdependence CenterMilan, ItalyMay16, 2013
David Kotok
Chairman and Chief Investment Officer
(800) 257-7013 ext. 320
Twitter: @CumberlandADV
©Copyright 2013 Cumberland Advisors
®. Further distribution prohibited without prior permission.
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$450
$600
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$900
$1,050
$1,200
$1,350
$1,500
$1,650
$1,800
$1,950
$2,100
$2,250
$2,400
$2,550
$2,700
$2,850
$3,000
$3,150
$3,300
$3,450
$3,600
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$ B
nFactors Adding to Reserves on Federal Reserve's Balance Sheet (Assets) Plus
Off-Balance TSLF from 6/27/07 to 5/8/13
Mortgage Backed Securities
US Treasuries
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2
Factors Adding to Reserves
Note: Data are weekly averages for all but the Foreign Central Bank TAF which are as of the last day of the week.
Source: Federal Reserve Board of Governors Statistical Release H.4.1.
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®. Further distribution prohibited without prior permission.
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3
Factors Using Reserves
TSLF-3/11/08, 9
50
"TDWP -8/17/07"
TAF-12/12/07
PDCF-3/16/08
Series Break
Series Break
$450
$600
$750
$900
$1,050
$1,200
$1,350
$1,500
$1,650
$1,800
$1,950
$2,100
$2,250
$2,400
$2,550
$2,700
$2,850
$3,000
$3,150
$3,300
$3,450
$3,600
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Factors Using Reserves on Federal Reserve's Balance Sheet (Liabilities) from 6/27/2007 to 5/8/2013
Bil
lio
ns
Currency in Circulation
Reserve Balances
Note: Data are weekly averages for all but the Foreign Central Bank TAF which are as of the last day of the week.
Source: Federal Reserve Board of Governors Statistical Release H.4.1.
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4
Projected Baseline Assets
Source: “Crunch Time: Fiscal Crises and the Role of Monetary Policy.” Greenlaw, Hamilton, Hooper, and Mishkin (2013).
Mortgage Backed Securities
US Treasuries
©Copyright 2013 Cumberland Advisors
®. Further distribution prohibited without prior permission.
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5
Projected Baseline Liabilities
Source: “Crunch Time: Fiscal Crises and the Role of Monetary Policy.” Greenlaw, Hamilton, Hooper, and Mishkin (2013).
Reserve Balances
Currency in Circulation
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®. Further distribution prohibited without prior permission.
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6
Everyone Is Now Looking at Jobs
• When will unemployment – most recently at 7.7% – hit 6.5%?
In looking at job formation we have assumed 0.7% annual growth in the labor force and a -0.3% annual change in the participation rate.
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7
How Many Jobs Does the Economy Create?
Assumed Quarterly %
Real GDP Growth
Estimated Number of
Jobs Created within
the Quarter
Estimated Number of
Quarters to Create 3.217
Million Jobs
Estimated Number
of Jobs Created
Within Quarter
Estimated Number
of Quarters to
Create 3.217
Million Jobs
Estimated Number
of Jobs Created
Within Quarter
Estimated
Number of
Quarters to
Create 3.217
Million Jobs
Average Hi (95%) Interval Low (95%) Interval
1 161 20 188 17 134 24
2 322 10 377 9 268 12
3 483 7 565 6 402 8
4 644 5 753 4 536 6
Assumed Quarterly %
Real GDP Growth
Estimated Number of
Jobs Created per
Month
Estimated Number of
Months to Create 3.217
Million Jobs
Estimated Number
of Jobs Created per
Month
Estimated Number
of Months to
Create 3.217
Million Jobs
Estimated Number
of Jobs Created
Within Month
Estimated
Number of
Months to
Create 3.217
Million Jobs
Average Hi (95%) Interval Low (95%) Interval
1 54 60 63 51 45 72
2 107 30 126 26 89 36
3 161 20 188 17 134 24
4 215 15 251 13 179 18
Source: Haver and Cumberland Advisors
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GDP Growth Needed to Create Enough Jobs for Unemployment to Hit 6.5%
Source: Cumberland Advisors
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Job Growth Needed to Hit 6.5% Unemployment
Source: Cumberland Advisors
1030507090
110130150170190210230250270290310330350370390410430450470490510530550570590610630650
4/1
/20
12
7/1
0/2
01
2
10
/18
/20
12
1/2
6/2
01
3
5/6
/20
13
8/1
4/2
01
3
11
/22
/20
13
3/2
/20
14
6/1
0/2
01
4
9/1
8/2
01
4
12
/27
/20
14
4/6
/20
15
7/1
5/2
01
5
10
/23
/20
15
1/3
1/2
01
6
5/1
0/2
01
6
8/1
8/2
01
6
11
/26
/20
16
3/6
/20
17
6/1
4/2
01
7
9/2
2/2
01
7
12
/31
/20
17
Month in Which Unemployment Rate Reaches 6.5% for Assumed
Monthly Job Growth - Labor Force is Assumed to Increase at .7%
Annually and Participation Rate is Assumed to Decline .3% Annually
95% Confidence Lower Bound
95% Confidence Upper Bound
If the economy creates 210,000 jobs per month, unemployment
will hit 6.5% between Feb 2014 and May 2014.
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®. Further distribution prohibited without prior permission.
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10
The Beveridge Curve: Job Vacancy Rate vs. U-3 Unemployment Rate (Seasonally Adjusted)
1.0
1.5
2.0
2.5
3.0
3.5
3.5 4.5 5.5 6.5 7.5 8.5 9.5 10.5
Job
Vaca
ncy
Rate
U-3 Unemployment Rate
Dec '01- Nov '07 Dec '07- Jun '09 Jul '09- Mar '13
Nov '07
Dec '12
Jun '09
Dec '01
Dec '07
Jul '09
Mar '13
Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics, Current Population Survey and Job Openings Labor Turnover Survey, May 7, 2013
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®. Further distribution prohibited without prior permission.
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11
Monthly U-3 Unemployment vs. Inflation
Jan-07
Feb-07 Mar-07Apr-07
May-07
Jun-07
Jul-07
Aug-07
Sep-07
Oct-07Nov-07
Dec-07Jan-08
Feb-08
Mar-08Apr-08
May-08
Jun-08
Jul-08
Aug-08
Sep-08
Oct-08
Nov-08
Dec-08
Jan-09
Feb-09
Mar-09
May-09
Apr-09
Jun-09
Jul-09Aug-09
Sep-09
Oct-09 Nov-09
Dec-09Jan-10Feb-10
Mar-10Apr-10
May-10
Jun-10Jul-10
Aug-10
Sep-10 Oct-10
Nov-10
Dec-10Jan-11Feb-11
Mar-11
Apr-11May-11 Jun-11
Jul-11
Aug-11Sep-11
Oct-11
Nov-11Dec-11
Jan-12Feb-12Mar-12
Apr-12May-12
Jun-12
Jul-12
Aug-12Sep-12Oct-12
Nov-12
Dec-12Jan-13
Feb-13Mar-13
Fed Target
4.0
5.0
6.0
7.0
8.0
9.0
10.0
11.0
-3.0 -1.0 1.0 3.0 5.0 7.0
Une
mpl
oym
ent R
ate
(U-3
)
Inflation (CPI )Pre-Crisis During Crisis Post Crisis Fed Wants to Close this Gap
During Crisis
(Dec. '07-June '09)
Post Crisis
(Jul '09-present)
Pre-Crisis
(Jan '07-Nov '07)
(6.5% U-3 unemployment rate, 2.5% inflation rate)
Fed Wants to Close
This Gap
Source: Concept: Thomas W. Synnott, Bureau of Labor Statistics April 16, 2013
Jan-07
Feb-07 Mar-07Apr-07
May-07
Jun-07
Jul-07
Aug-07
Sep-07
Oct-07Nov-07
Dec-07Jan-08
Feb-08
Mar-08Apr-08
May-08
Jun-08
Jul-08
Aug-08
Sep-08
Oct-08
Nov-08
Dec-08
Jan-09
Feb-09
Mar-09
May-09
Apr-09
Jun-09
Jul-09Aug-09
Sep-09
Oct-09 Nov-09
Dec-09Jan-10Feb-10
Mar-10Apr-10
May-10
Jun-10Jul-10
Aug-10
Sep-10 Oct-10
Nov-10
Dec-10Jan-11Feb-11
Mar-11
Apr-11May-11 Jun-11
Jul-11
Aug-11Sep-11
Oct-11
Nov-11Dec-11
Jan-12Feb-12Mar-12
Apr-12May-12
Jun-12
Jul-12
Aug-12Sep-12Oct-12
Nov-12
Dec-12Jan-13
Feb-13Mar-13
Fed Target
4.0
5.0
6.0
7.0
8.0
9.0
10.0
11.0
-3.0 -1.0 1.0 3.0 5.0 7.0
Une
mpl
oym
ent R
ate
(U-3
)
Inflation (CPI )Pre-Crisis During Crisis Post Crisis Fed Wants to Close this Gap
During Crisis
(Dec. '07-June '09)
Post Crisis
(Jul '09-present)
Pre-Crisis
(Jan '07-Nov '07)
(6.5% U-3 unemployment rate, 2.5% inflation rate)
Fed Wants to Close
This Gap
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12
U3 Through U6
Source: BLS and Cumberland Advisors, Inc. Data through April 2013.
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
16
18
Jan
Ma
y
Se
p
Jan
Ma
y
Se
p
Jan
Ma
y
Se
p
Jan
Ma
y
Se
p
Jan
Ma
y
Se
p
Jan
Ma
y
Se
p
Jan
Ma
y
Se
p
Jan
Ma
y
Se
p
Jan
Ma
y
Se
p
Jan
Ma
y
Se
p
Jan
Ma
y
Se
p
Jan
Ma
y
Se
p
Jan
Ma
y
Se
p
Jan
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013
Pe
rce
nt
U6 U5 U4 U3
U4 : U3 + "discouraged workers", or those who have stopped looking for work because current economic conditions make them believe that no work is available for them.U5 : U4 + other "marginally attached workers", or "loosely attached workers", or those who "would like" and are able to work, but have not looked for work recently.U6 : U5 + Part time workers who want to work full time, but cannot due to economic reasons.
Source: BLS
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13
Sources of Difference Between U6 and Standard Employment Statistic – U3
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
Jan
Ma
y
Se
p
Jan
Ma
y
Se
p
Jan
Ma
y
Se
p
Jan
Ma
y
Se
p
Jan
Ma
y
Se
p
Jan
Ma
y
Se
p
Jan
Ma
y
Se
p
Jan
Ma
y
Se
p
Jan
Ma
y
Se
p
Jan
Ma
y
Se
p
Jan
Ma
y
Se
p
Jan
Ma
y
Se
p
Jan
Ma
y
Se
p
Jan
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013
Percent
Sources of Difference Between U-6 and Standard Unemployoment
Statistic (Source: BLS and Cumberland Advisors)
% Discouraged Workers %Marginally Attached Workers %Part-Time Workers Who Want Full Time Work
Estimate 3.5% above
Source: BLS and Cumberland Advisors, Inc. Data through April 2013.
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Source: Concept: Thomas W. Synnott, Bureau of Labor Statistics April 16, 2013
Monthly U-6 Unemployment vs. Inflation
Jan-07
Feb-07 Mar-07Apr-07
May-07
Jun-07
Jul-07
Aug-07
Sep-07
Oct-07 Nov-07
Dec-07
Jan-08
Feb-08 Mar-08Apr-08
May-08
Jun-08
Jul-08
Aug-08
Sep-08
Oct-08
Nov-08
Dec-08
Jan-09
Feb-09
Mar-09Apr-09
May-09 Jun-09
Jul-09Aug-09
Sep-09Oct-09 Nov-09
Dec-09
Jan-10Feb-10Mar-10
Apr-10
May-10Jun-10 Jul-10Aug-10
Sep-10Oct-10Nov-10
Dec-10
Jan-11Feb-11
Mar-11
Apr-11
May-11Jun-11
Jul-11
Aug-11
Sep-11
Oct-11Nov-11
Dec-11 Jan-12Feb-12
Mar-12
Apr-12
May-12
Jun-12
Jul-12
Aug-12 Sep-12Oct-12
Nov-12Dec-12
Jan-13
Implied
Fed Target
Feb-13
Mar-13
6.0
8.0
10.0
12.0
14.0
16.0
18.0
-3.0 -2.0 -1.0 0.0 1.0 2.0 3.0 4.0 5.0 6.0
Une
mpl
oym
ent
Rate
(U-6
)
Inflation (CPI )Pre-Crisis During Crisis Post Crisis Fed Wants to Close This Gap
During Crisis
(Dec. '07-June '09)
Post Crisis
(Jul '09-present)
Pre-Crisis
(Jan '07-Nov '07)
(10.0% U-6 unemployment rate, 2.5% inflation rate)
Fed Wants to Close
This Gap
Jan-07
Feb-07 Mar-07Apr-07
May-07
Jun-07
Jul-07
Aug-07
Sep-07
Oct-07 Nov-07
Dec-07
Jan-08
Feb-08 Mar-08Apr-08
May-08
Jun-08
Jul-08
Aug-08
Sep-08
Oct-08
Nov-08
Dec-08
Jan-09
Feb-09
Mar-09Apr-09
May-09 Jun-09
Jul-09Aug-09
Sep-09Oct-09 Nov-09
Dec-09
Jan-10Feb-10Mar-10
Apr-10
May-10Jun-10 Jul-10Aug-10
Sep-10Oct-10Nov-10
Dec-10
Jan-11Feb-11
Mar-11
Apr-11
May-11Jun-11
Jul-11
Aug-11
Sep-11
Oct-11Nov-11
Dec-11 Jan-12Feb-12
Mar-12
Apr-12
May-12
Jun-12
Jul-12
Aug-12 Sep-12Oct-12
Nov-12Dec-12
Jan-13
Implied
Fed Target
Feb-13
Mar-13
6.0
8.0
10.0
12.0
14.0
16.0
18.0
-3.0 -2.0 -1.0 0.0 1.0 2.0 3.0 4.0 5.0 6.0
Une
mpl
oym
ent R
ate
(U-6
)
Inflation (CPI )Pre-Crisis During Crisis Post Crisis Fed Wants to Close This Gap
During Crisis
(Dec. '07-June '09)
Post Crisis
(Jul '09-present)
Pre-Crisis
(Jan '07-Nov '07)
(10.0% U-6 unemployment rate, 2.5% inflation rate)
Fed Wants to Close
This Gap
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15
Monthly Jobs Created (NSA) & New Claims
Source: BLS, Haver Analytics, and Cumberland Advisors, Inc.
-0.8%
-0.6%
-0.4%
-0.2%
0.0%
0.2%
0.4%
0.6%
Monthly Jobs Created (NSA) and New Claims as a Percent of Covered Employment
Recession Periods Jobs/Covered Employment 4 Wk Moving Avg of New Claims/Covered Employment
Given current size of the labor market, the economy would have to create an average of 273K jobs per month for the ratio of Jobs/Covered Employment to be comparable to what it was between July86-Nov90, Jan93-Mar00. The number of jobs needed will increase as the labor force expands.
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16
Total Assets of Major Central Banks
0
1000
2000
3000
4000
5000
6000
7000
8000
9000
10000
11000
12000
13000
Fe
b-0
6
Ap
r-06
Jun
-06
Au
g-0
6
Oct-0
6
De
c-06
Fe
b-0
7
Ap
r-07
Jun
-07
Au
g-0
7
Oct-0
7
De
c-07
Fe
b-0
8
Ap
r-08
Jun
-08
Au
g-0
8
Oct-0
8
De
c-08
Fe
b-0
9
Ap
r-09
Jun
-09
Au
g-0
9
Oct-0
9
De
c-09
Fe
b-1
0
Ap
r-10
Jun
-10
Au
g-1
0
Oct-1
0
De
c-10
Fe
b-1
1
Ap
r-11
Jun
-11
Au
g-1
1
Oct-1
1
De
c-11
Fe
b-1
2
Ap
r-12
Jun
-12
Au
g-1
2
Oct-1
2
De
c-12
Fe
b-1
3
$ Billions
Monthly Central Bank Assets (Dollar Equivalents on Left Scale $ Billions) for US, UK,Japan, Euro Area, and Swiss National Bank
from June-06 to Dec-14
Federal Reserve Bank of England ECB Bank of Japan Swiss National Bank
2014 Cumberland Estimates X
Estimates in US Dollars
Total: $11.6 tr
Swiss: $1.38 tr
BOJ: 2.9 tr
ECB: 3 tr
BOE: 520 bn
Fed: 3.8 tr
Source: Credit Suisse and Cumberland Advisors, Inc.
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17
European System of Central Banks
Source: Oesterreichische Nationalbank.
0
500000
1000000
1500000
2000000
2500000
3000000
3500000
1/1/1999
5/21/1999
10/8/1999
2/25/2000
7/14/2000
12/1/2000
4/20/2001
9/7/2001
1/25/2002
6/14/2002
11/1/2002
3/21/2003
8/8/2003
12/26/2003
5/14/2004
10/1/2004
2/18/2005
7/8/2005
11/25/2005
4/14/2006
9/1/2006
1/19/2007
6/8/2007
10/26/2007
3/14/2008
8/1/2008
12/19/2008
5/8/2009
9/25/2009
2/12/2010
7/2/2010
11/19/2010
4/8/2011
8/26/2011
1/13/2012
6/1/2012
10/19/2012
3/8/2013
Eurosystem: Other Assets (NSA, Mil.EUR)
Eurosystem: Asset: General Govt DebtDenominated in Euro (NSA, Mil.EUR)
Eurosystem: Asset: Securities of Euro AreaResid in Euro (NSA, Mil.EUR)
Eurosystem: Asset: Oth Claim on Eur AreaCred Inst in Euro(NSA Mil.EUR)
Eurosystem: Asset: Lending to Euro AreaCred Inst in Euro (NSA Mil.EUR)
Eurosystem: Asset: Claims on NoneuroResidents in Euros (NSA, Mil.EUR)
Eurosystem: Asset: Claims on Euro Res inFgn Currency (NSA, Mil.EUR)
Eurosystem: Asset: Claims on Noneuro Resin Fgn Currency (NSA Mil.EUR)
Eurosystem: Asset: Gold and GoldReceivables (NSA, Mil.EUR)
European System of Central Banks Assets in Euros from 01/05/07 to 05/03/13
©Copyright 2013 Cumberland Advisors®. Further distribution prohibited without prior permission.
Florida Office New Jersey Office (800) 257-7013
One Sarasota Tower 614 E. Landis Avenue
2 N. Tamiami Trail, Suite 303 Vineland, NJ 08360
Sarasota, FL 34236
18
European System - Liabilities
Source: Oesterreichische Nationalbank.
0
500000
1000000
1500000
2000000
2500000
3000000
3500000
1/1/1999
5/21/1999
10/8/1999
2/25/2000
7/14/2000
12/1/2000
4/20/2001
9/7/2001
1/25/2002
6/14/2002
11/1/2002
3/21/2003
8/8/2003
12/26/2003
5/14/2004
10/1/2004
2/18/2005
7/8/2005
11/25/2005
4/14/2006
9/1/2006
1/19/2007
6/8/2007
10/26/2007
3/14/2008
8/1/2008
12/19/2008
5/8/2009
9/25/2009
2/12/2010
7/2/2010
11/19/2010
4/8/2011
8/26/2011
1/13/2012
6/1/2012
10/19/2012
3/8/2013
Eurosystem: Capital and Reserves(NSA, Mil.EUR)
Eurosystem: Revaluation Accounts(NSA, Mil.EUR)
Eurosystem: Other Liabilities (NSA,
Mil.EUR)
Eurosystem: Liab: Counterpart of
SDRs Allocated by IMF (NSA,
Mil.EUR)Eurosystem: Liab to Noneuro Area
Resid in Fgn Currency (NSA,Mil.EUR)Eurosystem: Liab to Euro Area
Residents in Fgn Currency (NSA,Mil.EUR)Eurosystem: Liab to Non-euro AreaResidents in Euro (NSA, Mil.EUR)
Eurosystem: Liab to Other Euro AreaResidents in Euro (NSA, Mil.EUR)
Eurosystem: Liab: Debt Certificates
Issued (NSA, Mil.EUR)
Eurosystem: Other Liab to Euro Area
Credit Inst in Euro (NSA, Mil.EUR)
Eurosystem: Liab to Euro Area Credit
Institutions in Euro(NSA, Mil.EUR)
Eurosystem: Liab: Banknotes in
Circulation (NSA, Mil.EUR)
European System of Central Banks Liabilities in Euros from 01/05/07 to 05/03/13
©Copyright 2013 Cumberland Advisors®. Further distribution prohibited without prior permission.
Florida Office New Jersey Office (800) 257-7013
One Sarasota Tower 614 E. Landis Avenue
2 N. Tamiami Trail, Suite 303 Vineland, NJ 08360
Sarasota, FL 34236
19
Bank of England Assets
Source: Bank of England.
0
50000
100000
150000
200000
250000
300000
350000
400000
450000 UK: BoE Consol St: Short-term Open Mkt Operations{RPWB66A} (NSA, Mil.Pounds)
UK: BoE Consolidated Statement: Total Other Assets{RPWB74A} (NSA, Mil.Pounds)
UK: BoE Cons St: Other Sec Acq Via Mkt Transactns{RPWB73A} (NSA, Mil.Pounds)
UK: BoE Consol St: Advances to the Central Govt {RPWB72A} --DISC(NSA,Mil.Pounds)
UK: BoE Consol St: Longer-term Reverse Repo {RPWB69A}(NSA, Mil.Pounds)
Bank of England Assets in Pounds Sterling from 01/03/07 to 05/08/13
©Copyright 2013 Cumberland Advisors®. Further distribution prohibited without prior permission.
Florida Office New Jersey Office (800) 257-7013
One Sarasota Tower 614 E. Landis Avenue
2 N. Tamiami Trail, Suite 303 Vineland, NJ 08360
Sarasota, FL 34236
20
Bank of England Liabilities
Source: Bank of England.
0
50000
100000
150000
200000
250000
300000
350000
400000
450000
1/3/2007
4/3/2007
7/3/2007
10/3/2007
1/3/2008
4/3/2008
7/3/2008
10/3/2008
1/3/2009
4/3/2009
7/3/2009
10/3/2009
1/3/2010
4/3/2010
7/3/2010
10/3/2010
1/3/2011
4/3/2011
7/3/2011
10/3/2011
1/3/2012
4/3/2012
7/3/2012
10/3/2012
1/3/2013
4/3/2013
UK: BoE Consolidated St: Foreign Currency Securities{RPWB59A} (NSA, Mil.Pounds)
UK: BoE Consolidated Statement: Other Liabilities{RPWB63A} (NSA, Mil.Pounds)
UK: BoE Consolidated Statement: Cash Ratio Deposits{RPWB62A} (NSA, Mil.Pounds)
UK: BoE Cons St: Open Mkt Operatns: Fine-tuning Repo
{RPWB58A} (NSA, Mil.Pounds)
UK: BoE Consol St: Standing Facility Deposits
{RPWB57A} --DISC (NSA, Mil.Pounds)
UK: BoE Consol St: Reserve Balance Liabilities
{RPWB56A} (NSA, Mil.Pounds)
UK: BoE Consolidated St: Notes in Circulation{RPWB55A} (NSA, Mil.Pounds)
Bank of England Liabilities in Pounds Sterling from 01/03/07 to 05/08/13
©Copyright 2013 Cumberland Advisors®. Further distribution prohibited without prior permission.
Florida Office New Jersey Office (800) 257-7013
One Sarasota Tower 614 E. Landis Avenue
2 N. Tamiami Trail, Suite 303 Vineland, NJ 08360
Sarasota, FL 34236
21
Swiss National Bank Liabilities
0
100000
200000
300000
400000
500000
600000
01
20
07
04
20
07
07
20
07
10
20
07
01
20
08
04
20
08
07
20
08
10
20
08
01
20
09
04
20
09
07
20
09
10
20
09
01
20
10
04
20
10
07
20
10
10
20
10
01
20
11
04
20
11
07
20
11
10
20
11
01
20
12
04
20
12
07
20
12
10
20
12
01
20
13
Swiss National Bank Liabilities in Swiss Francs from 01/31/07 to 03/31/13
Provisions and equity capital
Other liabilities
Counterpart of special drawing rights allocated by
the IF
Foreign currency liabilities
Other tie liabilities
SNB debt certificates
Liabilities from CHF repo transactions
Other sight liabilities
Sight deposits of foreign banks and institutions
Liabilities towards the Confederation
Sight deposits of domestic banks
Banknotes in circulation
©Copyright 2013 Cumberland Advisors®. Further distribution prohibited without prior permission.
0.00
20,000.00
40,000.00
60,000.00
80,000.00
100,000.00
120,000.00
140,000.00
160,000.00
180,000.00
200,000.00
Jul-
97
No
v-9
7
Ma
r-9
8
Jul-
98
No
v-9
8
Ma
r-9
9
Jul-
99
No
v-9
9
Ma
r-0
0
Jul-
00
No
v-0
0
Ma
r-0
1
Jul-
01
No
v-0
1
Ma
r-0
2
Jul-
02
No
v-0
2
Ma
r-0
3
Jul-
03
No
v-0
3
Ma
r-0
4
Jul-
04
No
v-0
4
Ma
r-0
5
Jul-
05
No
v-0
5
Ma
r-0
6
Jul-
06
No
v-0
6
Ma
r-0
7
Jul-
07
No
v-0
7
Ma
r-0
8
Jul-
08
No
v-0
8
Ma
r-0
9
Jul-
09
No
v-0
9
Ma
r-1
0
Jul-
10
No
v-1
0
Ma
r-1
1
Jul-
11
No
v-1
1
Ma
r-1
2
Jul-
12
No
v-1
2
Ma
r-1
3
Y
e
n
Bank of Japan Assets from 7/ 97 to 4/13
Gold (Bil.Yen) Receivables Under Resale Agreements (Bi l.Yen) Bills Purchased (Bil.Yen)
Government Securities in Custody (Bil.Yen) Commercial Bills Discounted (Bil.Yen) Commer cial Paper (EOP, Bil.Yen)
Corporate Bonds (EOP, Bil.Yen) Pecuniary Trusts [Stocks Held as Trust Property] (Bi l.Yen) Index-Linked Exch-Traded Funds Held as Trust Prop(Bil.Yen)
Real Estate Invt Trusts (Bil.Yen) Cash (Bil.Yen) Japanese Government Securities (Bil.Yen)
Asset -B acked Securities (Bil.Yen) Loans Excluding Those to the Deposit Insurance Corp(Bil .Yen) Loans to Deposit Insurance Corporat ion (Bi l.Yen)
Foreign Currency Assets (Bil.Yen) Deposits with Agents (Bil.Yen) Cash Collat in Exchange for Govt Securities Borrowed(Bil.Yen)
Other (Bil.Yen) Total Assets (Bi l.Yen)
Florida Office New Jersey Office (800) 257-7013
One Sarasota Tower 614 E. Landis Avenue
2 N. Tamiami Trail, Suite 303 Vineland, NJ 08360
Sarasota, FL 34236
22
Bank of Japan Assets
Japan removes QE2
with Bills Purchased
Source: Bank of Japan.
©Copyright 2013 Cumberland Advisors®. Further distribution prohibited without prior permission.
0.00
20,000.00
40,000.00
60,000.00
80,000.00
100,000.00
120,000.00
140,000.00
160,000.00
180,000.00
200,000.00
Y
e
n
Bank of Japan Liabilities from 7/ 97 to 4/13
Banknotes (Bil.Yen) Current deposits (Bil.Yen) Other deposits (Bil.Yen)
Payables Under Repurchase Agreements (Bil.Yen) Bills Sold (Bil.Yen) Other (Bil.Yen)
Provisions (Bil.Yen) Deposits of the Govt(Bil.Yen) Capital (Bil.Yen)
Legal & Special Reserves (Bil.Yen) Govt Securities Borrowed (Bil.Yen) Total Liabilities & Capital Accounts (Bil.Yen)
Florida Office New Jersey Office (800) 257-7013
One Sarasota Tower 614 E. Landis Avenue
2 N. Tamiami Trail, Suite 303 Vineland, NJ 08360
Sarasota, FL 34236
23
Bank of Japan Liabilities
Japan removes QE2
with Current Deposits
Removed
Source: Bank of Japan.
©Copyright 2013 Cumberland Advisors®. Further distribution prohibited without prior permission.
Florida Office New Jersey Office (800) 257-7013
One Sarasota Tower 614 E. Landis Avenue
2 N. Tamiami Trail, Suite 303 Vineland, NJ 08360
Sarasota, FL 34236
24
All material presented is compiled from sources believed to be reliable.
However, accuracy cannot be guaranteed. Past performance is no
guarantee of future results.
Disclosure