Effects of the 2006/7 Effects of the 2006/7 El NiEl Niñño on Australian climate o on Australian climate
and bushfire seasonand bushfire season
Brad MurphyBrad Murphy
National Climate CentreNational Climate Centre
Australian Bureau of MeteorologyAustralian Bureau of Meteorology
OutlineOutline
ENSO impacts in Australia
typical climate response to El Niño / La Niña
2006-7 El Niño in Australian region
rainfall and temperature response
impacts on water availability
economic impacts
Long-term drought in south eastern Australia
Bushfires in south eastern Australia
Impacts on 2006-7 Bushfire season
Typical El NiTypical El Niñño rainfall responseo rainfall response
Jan Apr Jul Oct Jan Apr Jul Oct Jan
Previous Droughts and El NiPrevious Droughts and El Niññoo
1982
1997
1994 2002
2006
2006 Rainfall and Temp anomalies2006 Rainfall and Temp anomalies
30% of continent in decile 1 (Vic 93%, Tas 74%, South Aus. 50%)
Alpine regions lowest on record
Records broken in 2006Records broken in 2006
SE Aust Tmax +1.93°C (highest) Southern Aust +1.85°C (highest)Record low minimum temperatures - severe, damaging frosts: Major losses in the Goulburn Valley fruit crop (25 Sept –2.7°C
at Wangaratta) Crop losses in parts of SE Aus in Oct, particularly to grapes
(29 Oct –12.0°C at Charlotte Pass (NSW), new Australian record low for Oct)
Examples of lowest annual rainfall on record: Harrietville, Vic., 503 mm (opened 1884, mean 1435 mm,
previous record 707 mm in 1982) Burnie, Tasmania, 408 mm (opened 1944, mean 950 mm,
previous record 670 mm in 1972)
Statistical Outcome POAMA Model Dynamic
Seasonal Outlooks from 2006Seasonal Outlooks from 2006Winter
Spring
Rainfall
Tmax Tmin
Long-term droughtLong-term droughtLast 10 years
Last 5 years50 year trend
Water storages/streamflowsWater storages/streamflows
Lowest recorded inflows into Murray River system (40% of previous lowest record)
Severe water restrictions in many urban and rural centres
Agricultural Production Agricultural Production and Drought Assistanceand Drought Assistance
Major Past Bushfires in VictoriaMajor Past Bushfires in Victoria 1851 - 6 February 'Black Thursday’1851 - 6 February 'Black Thursday’
5,000,000 hectares burnt, 12 lives lost, 2000 buildings5,000,000 hectares burnt, 12 lives lost, 2000 buildings 1926 - February – March1926 - February – March
60 lives lost60 lives lost 1939 - 13 January 'Black Friday’1939 - 13 January 'Black Friday’
2,000,000 hectares, 71 deaths, 650 buildings2,000,000 hectares, 71 deaths, 650 buildings 19441944
15-20 deaths, 1 million hectares burnt15-20 deaths, 1 million hectares burnt 1983 - 16 February 'Ash Wednesday’1983 - 16 February 'Ash Wednesday’
100 fires, 47 deaths, 2000 houses lost100 fires, 47 deaths, 2000 houses lost 2003 - Eastern Victorian (Alpine) Fires2003 - Eastern Victorian (Alpine) Fires
87 fires on 8 Jan, burnt for 59 days, 1.3 million hectares, 41 homes 87 fires on 8 Jan, burnt for 59 days, 1.3 million hectares, 41 homes lostlost
Significant but smaller-scale fires also in:Significant but smaller-scale fires also in: 1898, 1932, 1942-44, 1952, 1962, 1965, 1968-9, 1972, 1977, 1980, 1898, 1932, 1942-44, 1952, 1962, 1965, 1968-9, 1972, 1977, 1980,
1985, 1988, 19971985, 1988, 1997
Above Normal
Below Normal
Above Normal
Below Normal
Above Normal
Below Normal
Seasonal Bushfire Assessment Seasonal Bushfire Assessment 2006 - 20072006 - 2007
Consensus assessment of bushfire potential in Consensus assessment of bushfire potential in upcoming seasonupcoming season
Participants from NCC, Research Centre and Participants from NCC, Research Centre and Regional Fire and Water AgenciesRegional Fire and Water Agencies
Modelled on U.S. National Seasonal Modelled on U.S. National Seasonal Assessment WorkshopsAssessment Workshops
Considers recent climate, seasonal Considers recent climate, seasonal climate outlooks, current fuel loads climate outlooks, current fuel loads and curingand curing
Began in 2006, now split intoBegan in 2006, now split intoNorthern and Southern fire seasonsNorthern and Southern fire seasons
Seasonal Fire Potential Outlook for 2006-7Seasonal Fire Potential Outlook for 2007-8
Tasmanian Bushfires October 2006Tasmanian Bushfires October 2006 Record lowest rainfall Jan-Oct (232mm Hobart Airport - mean 402mm)
Record October max and min temps on 12th (33.4°C/17.0°C at Hobart Airport, averages 17.3°C/7.4°C)
Gale force winds on 11th and 12th
Extremely early start for fire season
Worst fires since 1967
No homes or lives lost
Alpine Fires Alpine Fires December 2006December 2006
MODIS Rapid Response Project at NASA/GSFC 5 December 2006
Lightning ignited 83 fires on 1 Dec, merging into one major complex
Longest fires in Victorian history (69 days)
1,048,000 hectares burnt (10480km²)
1 life lost (fire fighter - indirect)
51 dwellings destroyed
Bairnsdale, SE Victoria, 2:30pm December 14.
Near Chestnut, NE Victoria, 2pm 7 December. G. Arnoldussen
Alpine Fires Alpine Fires December 2006December 2006
External fire-fighting resources brought in, highest ever international deployments:
NSW 1,050, NT 108SA 10, Qld 14, WA 20Canada 52New Zealand 115USA 114
Severe weather forecasting resources overloaded
season began earlier (September) request made in September to US National Weather Service for fire weather forecasters to be deployed ~ 16 forecasters arrived in January (Melbourne, Sydney, Hobart), invaluable in relieving over-worked/stressed local forecasters
MODIS Rapid Response Project at NASA/GSFC 12 December 2006
2006: 10,480 km²
Total area burntTotal area burnt 2003: 13,000 km ²
1939: 20,000 km²
FFDI = f(Ts, |V|, RH,
Drought Factor)
Climate Change and BushfiresClimate Change and Bushfires Fire seasons are becoming longer
and severe seasons more frequent Forest Fire Danger Index (FFDI)
projected to increase in southeast (except Tasmania)
More “extreme” fire days projected 5-25% (low) and 15-65% (high
emissions) by 2020 10-50% (low) and 100-300% (high)
by 2050
From Lucas, et al. 2007
From N. Nicholls (2007)
SummarySummary
2006 El Niño climate impacts typical for Australia Dry/hot conditions followed long-term drought and
warming trends Impacts extreme, particularly on water resources and
agriculture Extreme fire conditions forecast in August Major fires developed in Hobart (October) and Victorian
Alps (December-January) Longest fires in Victorian history, largest area burnt since
1939 Resources stretched to limit, employments from interstate
and abroad, losses minimised Fire seasons getting more frequent and likely to become
more severe