Effects of the 2006/7 Effects of the 2006/7 El NiEl Niñño on Australian climate o on Australian climate

and bushfire seasonand bushfire season

Brad MurphyBrad Murphy

National Climate CentreNational Climate Centre

Australian Bureau of MeteorologyAustralian Bureau of Meteorology

OutlineOutline

ENSO impacts in Australia

typical climate response to El Niño / La Niña

2006-7 El Niño in Australian region

rainfall and temperature response

impacts on water availability

economic impacts

Long-term drought in south eastern Australia

Bushfires in south eastern Australia

Impacts on 2006-7 Bushfire season

Typical El NiTypical El Niñño rainfall responseo rainfall response

Jan Apr Jul Oct Jan Apr Jul Oct Jan

Previous Droughts and El NiPrevious Droughts and El Niññoo

1982

1997

1994 2002

2006

2006 Rainfall and Temp anomalies2006 Rainfall and Temp anomalies

30% of continent in decile 1 (Vic 93%, Tas 74%, South Aus. 50%)

Alpine regions lowest on record

Records broken in 2006Records broken in 2006

SE Aust Tmax +1.93°C (highest) Southern Aust +1.85°C (highest)Record low minimum temperatures - severe, damaging frosts: Major losses in the Goulburn Valley fruit crop (25 Sept –2.7°C

at Wangaratta) Crop losses in parts of SE Aus in Oct, particularly to grapes

(29 Oct –12.0°C at Charlotte Pass (NSW), new Australian record low for Oct)

Examples of lowest annual rainfall on record: Harrietville, Vic., 503 mm (opened 1884, mean 1435 mm,

previous record 707 mm in 1982) Burnie, Tasmania, 408 mm (opened 1944, mean 950 mm,

previous record 670 mm in 1972)

Statistical Outcome POAMA Model Dynamic

Seasonal Outlooks from 2006Seasonal Outlooks from 2006Winter

Spring

Rainfall

Tmax Tmin

Long-term droughtLong-term droughtLast 10 years

Last 5 years50 year trend

Water storages/streamflowsWater storages/streamflows

Lowest recorded inflows into Murray River system (40% of previous lowest record)

Severe water restrictions in many urban and rural centres

Agricultural Production Agricultural Production and Drought Assistanceand Drought Assistance

Major Past Bushfires in VictoriaMajor Past Bushfires in Victoria 1851 - 6 February 'Black Thursday’1851 - 6 February 'Black Thursday’

5,000,000 hectares burnt, 12 lives lost, 2000 buildings5,000,000 hectares burnt, 12 lives lost, 2000 buildings 1926 - February – March1926 - February – March

60 lives lost60 lives lost 1939 - 13 January 'Black Friday’1939 - 13 January 'Black Friday’

2,000,000 hectares, 71 deaths, 650 buildings2,000,000 hectares, 71 deaths, 650 buildings 19441944

15-20 deaths, 1 million hectares burnt15-20 deaths, 1 million hectares burnt 1983 - 16 February 'Ash Wednesday’1983 - 16 February 'Ash Wednesday’

100 fires, 47 deaths, 2000 houses lost100 fires, 47 deaths, 2000 houses lost 2003 - Eastern Victorian (Alpine) Fires2003 - Eastern Victorian (Alpine) Fires

87 fires on 8 Jan, burnt for 59 days, 1.3 million hectares, 41 homes 87 fires on 8 Jan, burnt for 59 days, 1.3 million hectares, 41 homes lostlost

Significant but smaller-scale fires also in:Significant but smaller-scale fires also in: 1898, 1932, 1942-44, 1952, 1962, 1965, 1968-9, 1972, 1977, 1980, 1898, 1932, 1942-44, 1952, 1962, 1965, 1968-9, 1972, 1977, 1980,

1985, 1988, 19971985, 1988, 1997

Above Normal

Below Normal

Above Normal

Below Normal

Above Normal

Below Normal

Seasonal Bushfire Assessment Seasonal Bushfire Assessment 2006 - 20072006 - 2007

Consensus assessment of bushfire potential in Consensus assessment of bushfire potential in upcoming seasonupcoming season

Participants from NCC, Research Centre and Participants from NCC, Research Centre and Regional Fire and Water AgenciesRegional Fire and Water Agencies

Modelled on U.S. National Seasonal Modelled on U.S. National Seasonal Assessment WorkshopsAssessment Workshops

Considers recent climate, seasonal Considers recent climate, seasonal climate outlooks, current fuel loads climate outlooks, current fuel loads and curingand curing

Began in 2006, now split intoBegan in 2006, now split intoNorthern and Southern fire seasonsNorthern and Southern fire seasons

Seasonal Fire Potential Outlook for 2006-7Seasonal Fire Potential Outlook for 2007-8

Tasmanian Bushfires October 2006Tasmanian Bushfires October 2006 Record lowest rainfall Jan-Oct (232mm Hobart Airport - mean 402mm)

Record October max and min temps on 12th (33.4°C/17.0°C at Hobart Airport, averages 17.3°C/7.4°C)

Gale force winds on 11th and 12th

Extremely early start for fire season

Worst fires since 1967

No homes or lives lost

Alpine Fires Alpine Fires December 2006December 2006

MODIS Rapid Response Project at NASA/GSFC 5 December 2006

Lightning ignited 83 fires on 1 Dec, merging into one major complex

Longest fires in Victorian history (69 days)

1,048,000 hectares burnt (10480km²)

1 life lost (fire fighter - indirect)

51 dwellings destroyed

Bairnsdale, SE Victoria, 2:30pm December 14.

Near Chestnut, NE Victoria, 2pm 7 December. G. Arnoldussen

Alpine Fires Alpine Fires December 2006December 2006

External fire-fighting resources brought in, highest ever international deployments:

NSW 1,050, NT 108SA 10, Qld 14, WA 20Canada 52New Zealand 115USA 114

Severe weather forecasting resources overloaded

season began earlier (September) request made in September to US National Weather Service for fire weather forecasters to be deployed ~ 16 forecasters arrived in January (Melbourne, Sydney, Hobart), invaluable in relieving over-worked/stressed local forecasters

MODIS Rapid Response Project at NASA/GSFC 12 December 2006

2006: 10,480 km²

Total area burntTotal area burnt 2003: 13,000 km ²

1939: 20,000 km²

FFDI = f(Ts, |V|, RH,

Drought Factor)

Climate Change and BushfiresClimate Change and Bushfires Fire seasons are becoming longer

and severe seasons more frequent Forest Fire Danger Index (FFDI)

projected to increase in southeast (except Tasmania)

More “extreme” fire days projected 5-25% (low) and 15-65% (high

emissions) by 2020 10-50% (low) and 100-300% (high)

by 2050

From Lucas, et al. 2007

From N. Nicholls (2007)

SummarySummary

2006 El Niño climate impacts typical for Australia Dry/hot conditions followed long-term drought and

warming trends Impacts extreme, particularly on water resources and

agriculture Extreme fire conditions forecast in August Major fires developed in Hobart (October) and Victorian

Alps (December-January) Longest fires in Victorian history, largest area burnt since

1939 Resources stretched to limit, employments from interstate

and abroad, losses minimised Fire seasons getting more frequent and likely to become

more severe