Download - Energy Systems Analysis
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Energy Systems Analysis Arnulf Grubler
Energy Systems Analysis
Determinants 3: Environment
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Energy Systems Analysis Arnulf Grubler
A Taxonomy of Environmental Problems (after WB, 1992):xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxPoverty Industrialization Affluence
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Energy Systems Analysis Arnulf Grubler
A Word of Caution• Cross-sectional data (comparing
different countries) only first step• Longitudinal analyses needed too (track
changes across countries and in time).• Income is surrogate indicator and not a
causality driver!• Elasticity of impacts and peaks:
-- pollutant dependent-- exposure dependent-- time dependent (“leap-frogging”)
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Energy Systems Analysis Arnulf Grubler
2 Environmental Kuznets Curves for Particulates: Urban Concentration vs. Total Human Exposure
(Source: K. Smith, 2000, WEA Chapter 3)
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Energy Systems Analysis Arnulf Grubler
Environmental Problems of Energy
1: Poverty, ignorance, and lack of capacity
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Energy Systems Analysis Arnulf Grubler
London - December 1952Urban Air Quality and Mortality
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Energy Systems Analysis Arnulf Grubler
Particulate Concentrations and Human Exposure in 8 Environments
Exposure = People x Time x Concentration
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Energy Systems Analysis Arnulf Grubler
Urban Air Quality – Standards vs. Reality ca. 1990 (WHO&UNEP, 1993)
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Urban Air Quality
in Megacities
(WHO, 1993)
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Energy Systems Analysis Arnulf Grubler
Environmental Problems of Energy
2: Industrialization, growing awareness, regionalization
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Energy Systems Analysis Arnulf Grubler
Sulfur Cycle Local, Regional, and Global Impacts
Wetdeposition
Drydeposition
Acidification
Air quality(health,corrosion)
Stratosphere (cooling)
Based on Crutzen&Graedel, 1986.
* hydrogen sulfide (land)dimethyl sulfide (ocean)
*
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Energy Systems Analysis Arnulf Grubler
IPCC WGI AR4 TS (2007)
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Energy Systems Analysis Arnulf Grubler
SO2 Emissions Scenarios SRES and IS92a (Schlesinger et al. 2000 TFSC 65:167-193)
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Energy Systems Analysis Arnulf Grubler
Effect of negativeSO2 forcing (right)and positive GHGforcing (left) onglobal mean tempchange
Smith et al., 2000TFSC 65:195-204
SRES lower SO2emissions (compared to IS92)lead to amplified Warming!
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Energy Systems Analysis Arnulf Grubler
Excess Sulfur Deposition Above Critical Loads (high growth coal scenario A2 ca. 2020)
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Sulfur Deposition
(gS/m2)
Europe, ca. 1990
China, A2 Projection for 2020
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Energy Systems Analysis Arnulf Grubler
Percent losses
Not assessed
No damage
< 10%10 - 33%33 - 75%
> 75%
A2 Acidification Impacts on Food Production Loss
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Energy Systems Analysis Arnulf Grubler
World – Sulfur Emissions by Region (cumulative, MtS)
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Energy Systems Analysis Arnulf Grubler
European Sulfur Emission Reductions (MtS)
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Energy Systems Analysis Arnulf Grubler
S/C Emissions Ratio vs. Affluence (Sulfur Peak)Korea: 1975 at 3,000 $/cap UK, GER: 1965 at 10,000 $/cap
Japan
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Energy Systems Analysis Arnulf Grubler
Environmental Problems of Energy
3: Affluence, deep uncertainty, globalization
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Energy Systems Analysis Arnulf Grubler
Atmospheric CO2 Concentration at Mauna Loa (IPCC, 1995)
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Energy Systems Analysis Arnulf Grubler
Energy-related Carbon Emissions by Region
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Energy Systems Analysis Arnulf Grubler
IPCC Projected Temperature Change in Absence of Climate Policies
Uncertainty:50 % climate (sensitivity) modeling25% emissions (POP+GDP influence)25% emissions (TECH influence)
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Energy Systems Analysis Arnulf Grubler
Energy – Environment Strategiesxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx
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Energy Systems Analysis Arnulf Grubler
Improvements in Efficiency and Decarbonization: Diverse Paths
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Energy Systems Analysis Arnulf Grubler
Policy Trade-offs: No Single Energy Hammer for All
Environmental Nails
• Incremental (fast) radical (slow)• Partial (fast, cheap) 100% solutions• Add-ons (reinstating dominance of old)
New systems (new tech + infra +…)• Single-purpose (carbon)
multi-purpose (efficiency)• Local (100 flowers, fragmented)
Global (uniform, complete coverage)• Solving one problem, BUT creating a new one