energy systems analysis

Energy Systems Analysis Arnulf Grubler

Energy Systems Analysis

Determinants 3: Environment


A Taxonomy of Environmental Problems (after WB, 1992):xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxPoverty Industrialization Affluence


A Word of Caution• Cross-sectional data (comparing

different countries) only first step• Longitudinal analyses needed too (track

changes across countries and in time).• Income is surrogate indicator and not a

causality driver!• Elasticity of impacts and peaks:

-- pollutant dependent-- exposure dependent-- time dependent (“leap-frogging”)


2 Environmental Kuznets Curves for Particulates: Urban Concentration vs. Total Human Exposure

(Source: K. Smith, 2000, WEA Chapter 3)


Environmental Problems of Energy

1: Poverty, ignorance, and lack of capacity


London - December 1952Urban Air Quality and Mortality


Particulate Concentrations and Human Exposure in 8 Environments

Exposure = People x Time x Concentration


Urban Air Quality – Standards vs. Reality ca. 1990 (WHO&UNEP, 1993)

Urban Air Quality

in Megacities

(WHO, 1993)



2: Industrialization, growing awareness, regionalization


Sulfur Cycle Local, Regional, and Global Impacts

Wetdeposition

Drydeposition

Acidification

Air quality(health,corrosion)

Stratosphere (cooling)

Based on Crutzen&Graedel, 1986.

* hydrogen sulfide (land)dimethyl sulfide (ocean)

*


IPCC WGI AR4 TS (2007)


SO2 Emissions Scenarios SRES and IS92a (Schlesinger et al. 2000 TFSC 65:167-193)


Effect of negativeSO2 forcing (right)and positive GHGforcing (left) onglobal mean tempchange

Smith et al., 2000TFSC 65:195-204

SRES lower SO2emissions (compared to IS92)lead to amplified Warming!


Excess Sulfur Deposition Above Critical Loads (high growth coal scenario A2 ca. 2020)

Sulfur Deposition

(gS/m2)

Europe, ca. 1990

China, A2 Projection for 2020


Percent losses

Not assessed

No damage

< 10%10 - 33%33 - 75%

> 75%

A2 Acidification Impacts on Food Production Loss


World – Sulfur Emissions by Region (cumulative, MtS)


European Sulfur Emission Reductions (MtS)


S/C Emissions Ratio vs. Affluence (Sulfur Peak)Korea: 1975 at 3,000 $/cap UK, GER: 1965 at 10,000 $/cap

Japan



3: Affluence, deep uncertainty, globalization


Atmospheric CO2 Concentration at Mauna Loa (IPCC, 1995)


Energy-related Carbon Emissions by Region


IPCC Projected Temperature Change in Absence of Climate Policies

Uncertainty:50 % climate (sensitivity) modeling25% emissions (POP+GDP influence)25% emissions (TECH influence)


Energy – Environment Strategiesxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx


Improvements in Efficiency and Decarbonization: Diverse Paths


Policy Trade-offs: No Single Energy Hammer for All

Environmental Nails

• Incremental (fast) radical (slow)• Partial (fast, cheap) 100% solutions• Add-ons (reinstating dominance of old)

New systems (new tech + infra +…)• Single-purpose (carbon)

multi-purpose (efficiency)• Local (100 flowers, fragmented)

Global (uniform, complete coverage)• Solving one problem, BUT creating a new one

energy systems analysis

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