1 ETTC
CALED “Smart Buildings”
Ken DozierFar West RTTC
11/07/01
Presentation
2 ETTC
“When the Rate of Change Outside is Greater Than the Rate of Change Inside, The End Is In Sight”
Jack Welch, Chairmen General Electric
The Future
3 ETTC
What is Knowledge ?
Truth Knowledge Belief
Universal
No Debate
Effect
Social
Converge on debate
Cause
Personal
Diverge on debate
Cause
10 Philosophical Mistakes (Adler 85)
4 ETTC
“where ... The ENIAC is equipped with 18,000 vacuum tubes and weighs 30 tons,computer in the the future may have only 1,000 vacuum tubes and weigh only 1.5 tons”
- Popular Mechanics, 1949
“I predict the internet... Will go spectacularly supernova and in 1996 catastrophically collapse ”
- Bob Metcalfe, 3COM founder and inventor, 1995
“This ‘Telephone’ has too many shortcomings to be seriously considered as a means of communication. The device is inherently of no value to us”
- Western Union, Internal memo, 1876
“The problem with television is that the peoplemust sit and keep their eyes glued on a screen; The average American family hasn’t time for it”
- New York Times, 1949
“There is no reason anyone would want a computer in their home”
- Ken Olson, president andfounder, Digital Equipment Corp., 1977
“Man will never reach the moon, regardless of all future scientific advances”Lee De Forest, Radio Pioneer, 1957
The Future
5 ETTC
“ According to Silicon Valley CEO’s, 60 % of the high-tech items they manufacture today did not exist 10 months ago”
Lon Hatamiya, Secretary - California Trade and Commerce Agency
Velocity
“Startups are now expected to go public within 6-18 months after venture investment”
Donna Jensen, Founder and CEO of startups.com
6 ETTC
Industry Clusters
– “Industry Cluster”: collections of competing and collaborating industries in a region networked into horizontal and vertical relationships, involving strong common buyer-supplier linkages, and relying on a shared foundation of specialized economic institutions. Because they are built around export-oriented firms, industry clusters bring new wealth into a region an help drive the regions economic growth.
Industry Cluster Electronic
Key Export Oriented Firms
Key Supplier Oriented Firms
Key Economic Infrastructure Providers
Consumer Electronic Assembly
Computer Hardware Assembly
Tool, Die & Machinery
Office & Production Supply
Specialized Component Supply
Education & Training Institutions
Physical Infrastructure Providers
Financial and Regulatory Institutions
(ERI/McGraw Hill,”America’s Clusters”,1995)
7 ETTC
Automotive
Aerospace/Defense
IndustrialMachinery
Transportation andDistribution
Financial Services
Tourism andRecreation
EducationalServices
Info/Media and Entertainment
Business Services
Health Services
Fashion, Apparel andTextiles
Home and LifestyleProducts
Agriculture andFood Processing
Bio-MedicalProducts
Electronics Machineryand Systems
Forest Products
Metals
ConstructionProducts
Energy andProcessMaterials
Industry Clusters (ERI/McGraw Hill,”America’s Clusters”,1995)
ETTC8
Industry Clusters (ERI/McGraw Hill,”America’s Clusters”,1965)
9 ETTC
Industry Clusters (ERI/McGraw Hill,”America’s Clusters”,1995)
ETTC10
194 0
-196
5
196 5
-199
0
199 0
-201
5Motion Pictures
AviationElectronics
Defense Aviation
AutomobileManufacturing
FoodProcessing
Agriculture
Theme Parks
Motion Pictures
Television
ComputerPeripherals
Defense Instruments
Commercial Aviation
MetalProducts
GeneralManufacturing
InformationProcessing
DefenseAerospace
Theme Parks/Tourism
Visual Media Production
Professional Services
Multimedia Technology
Engineering Services
Technology-Based
ManufacturingGeneral
Manufacturing
Information Processing
Business Services
The Evolution of Industry (ERI/McGraw Hill,”America’s Clusters”,1995)
11 ETTC
EZ and Incubator Spatial Distribution
12 ETTC
Traditional Entrepreneurship
• Typical Waterfall model• Six Stages
– basic research, development research, product and process ideas, prototype, production, diffusion
Sung 2001
• Criticisms– Too much focus on the solution “push”– basic research not the only initiator stage– relationship between research and commercialization
is too complex to be linear– Users are the key “pull” to the problems and markets
13 ETTC
New Non-Linear Model• 2001 study of startup companies across: Software
telecom (35%), Bio-med (19%), Computers (16%), and Semi-conductors (10.8%)
• Innovation: research (12%), development ( 22%), application stage (57%), production (9%)
• Age: Linear older ( 35-45), non linear (25-35)• Education: Linear more (28%P,42%M,30%B), Non
Linear (7.5%P, 22%M,67%B)• Experience: Linear narrower (59% research, 35%
commerce), Nonlinear (37% research, 29% commerce, 17% education)
• Both groups agreed on success factors: business plan, leadership, technical skills, management skills, and location
Sung 2001
14 ETTC
DevelopersDrivers
Gates “Microsoft” XeroxJobs “Apple” XeroxClark “SGI” E&S, StanfordClark “Netscape” University of
Illinois
The Non-Linear
15 ETTC
Make & Sell vs Sense & Respond
Incubators and Science Parks created to bridge gap between development and commercialization
Chart Source: Corporate Information Systems, Applegate
Venture: Niche markets,
public trading (pull)
Federal Agencies, SBIR: Mission Based, Linear (push) Universities: Curiosity Based, emerging, (push)
Chabol (large companies) hierarchy, products based, (push)
16 ETTC
Media Bandwidth Source: 1999 Fall Meeting, Community Development Council, Chuck MatthewsINFOWORLD, Sept. 2000
DSL/ Cable
IEEE 1394 / Firewire
Gigabit Ethernet
LASER / Fast Ethernet
10BaseT / CAT 5 Microwave /
Ethernet
G2 Wireless
G3 / Wireless LAN
ATM
G1 Wireless
17 ETTC
Smart Building Project
• The 6 packs• 4 Category 7 cable• 1 Fiber Optic• 1 Coax Cable
• Energy and Efficiency
Image courtesy of Johnson Controls
The connection point in each cubicle / office
• ATM to the desktop.• A coaxial and fiber optic connection for next
generation high-speed bandwidth requirements like streaming video and distributive computing.
• Additional Ethernet ports for multiple connection.
18 ETTC
Market Redefinition:Radical Change
Seven Organizational Change Propositions, Venkatraman 1994
19 ETTC
Solutions for Content Distribution
SatelliteCable
TerrestrialInternet
DSLWireless
IP Gateway
Encrypted IP
Content
Encryptor
20 ETTC
Security Solutions for Data Broadcasting
Network operation CenterContent Aggregator Rural Infrastructure
21 ETTC
Solutions for Digital Cinema
Picture StudiosIP Gateway
Encrypted IP
Encryptor
File ServersDigital Projector
22 ETTC
6-D Dimensions of Global Commerce
Demassification
Denationalization
Despacialization
Disintermediation
Disaggregation
Decentralization
Source: The Social Life of information, Brown & Duguild
23 ETTC
Global Competition
Source: The world Competitiveness Yearbook IMD International
• 3 Finland
• 4 Luxembourg
•5 Netherlands
•6 Hong Kong
•7 Ireland
•8 Sweden
•9 Canada
•10 Switzerland
24 ETTC
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