The value of communities envisioning their future through local scale foresight:
up scalable foresight-based land-use planning
Bayuni Shantiko (CoLUPSIA)
Background• Why?: Kapuas Hulu district is among the richest upstream forest resources,
while local government promotes large scale land-based investment e.g. Palm oil, mining, etc. • Need stakeholders collaboration and building common vision on the
possible future of development• By Whom?: CoLUPSIA (CIRAD, CIFOR, Telapak, Huma, Riak Bumi)• Where?: Kapuas Hulu district(218,804 inhabitants, 31,000km2), West
Kalimantan Province, Indonesia• How long?: Series of workshop (May-July 2011); public consultation
(2012); and will continue in 2013• Cost and funding: approx US$20,000; EU funded project
Question: What could happen possibly with the development of Kapuas Hulu in 20 years?
Qualitative approach: scenario building with stakeholders inputs
I suggest that you put a here also a picture of a workshop in a village if you have some, or a picture of activities in a village
PARTICIPATORY PROSPECTIVE ANALYSIS (PPA) PROCESS FLOW
Facilitator team training
Socialization: concept, method
Research: Biophysic, Socio economy, hydrology
GOVT
COM’TY
UNIV
Pv Sector
SCENARIOS
VILLAGE CONSULTATION
DISTRICT CONSULTATION
AGREED VISION
IMPLEMENTATION
PARTICIPATORY MONITORING AND EVALUATION
Methodology
Analysis
50 internal variables
Key drivers: Government policy, use of technology, customary law and wisdom, mindset, participation, education and skills
Desirable scenarios: Government, communities and other
SHs work together Aligned vision and policies to achieve
‘society’s welfare’ Stakeholders change their current
behaviour
Undesirable scenarios: Sc. 2,3,4 already happening Sc. 2 environmental destruction Scenario 3&4 recklessness in
investment decision: no benefit to community
From Foresight… to Action
Foresight work invites stakeholders in Kapuas Hulu to share the same vision and work together to make it happen
Stakeholders proposal for action plan (May 2012)
Tourism agency is interested in replicating the prospective method for ecotourism
CoLUPSIA will continue facilitating stakeholders to strengthen commitment and develop collective action for balanced land-use with conservation and development
Strong top leader’s commitment is a must, otherwise any scenario will unlikely to be implemented
From local to global: tenure insecurity is still an issueo While tenure security is a key driver of change and
important variable for both development and conservation activities,
o more research are needed to incorporate variables such as institutional arrangement, customary law, policies, participation etc.
Land use for development or conservationAnd
??
A Call to Action
Thank you
Muchas gracias